GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[Mmehdy]

17 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

What do you call a long-time collector?  I started GA books when I was still in elementary school (circa 1985). My car was paid off about 11 years ago, but my house is nowhere close.

I believe my first GA comic book was Superman #76 for 5 dollars which was lot of money back then, in 1966 or 1965.. Certainly  you qualify as a long term collector from 1985, probably anyone who has lasted more than a decade should be in the club. Ranking of would be 60's,70's,80'90's etc. Our timeline reading between the lines in Calif is 5/30/20 best guess so everybody hang in there.

 

[Cat-Man_America]

2 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

I've got to say, this statement is full of negativity, and outright WILD SPECULATION. I respect the amount of time you've been in the business, but that does not make you Comicstradamus. 

First of all, if you have a solid point, why bring your buddy into it and state his credentials to validate your point? It is a wise man whom seeks council, but this seems more like a weak argument that needs additional validation. 

Secondly, and I know we went around this Bush once, the markets are stabilizing a touch, largely due to financial band aids and COVID numbers declining in regions where its passed its peak

If we have an insane spike in infected people to get to the numbers you're talking, that would be astonishing. According to Worldometers.info there are currently 752,000 cases worldwide. That's a LONG way to go to get to 212,000,000 people dying. 

What if the  FDA is successful in combat against the virus through the mass manufacturing of Chloroquine and Hydrochloroquine? What if they are successful in their current efforts to contain the virus by stopping RNA replication by Covid? An RNA virus needs to make more copies of its RNA genome. This means antiviral drugs which block the copying of RNA genomes can potentially fix the problem.

Is there tougher road ahead? Maybe. Probably. I don't know for sure. The point is, I don't think anybody else does either...

Think I’m gonna trademark the name Nostalgiadramas since that one hasn’t been snagged yet.  What do you think?

Mitch’s arguments were more discussion points and his buddy Theo is a very knowledgeable collector/dealer who prefers remaining in the background to getting into public debates over market fluctuations.  That said, I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be averse to taking advantage of honest business opportunities arising from an economic crisis.  I don’t begrudge him that, do you?

The numbers of coronavirus are deceiving as only a small percentage of the world’s population has been tested.  I tend to agree with those forecasts suggesting the percentage of deaths to those who’ve been infected with the virus are too high, only because those who self-resolve may never be tested.  Their numbers will never be known with or without an accurate anti-body test.  Keep in mind that some of those infected with the virus have mild to non-existent symptoms.  

Risk of spreading to those many millions who have some kind of compromised system or age related limitation in fighting the disease off is the real issue here.  Those folks may constitute as much as 20% of the population ...and that’s purely a “guesstimate” that’s probably on the low side.  Hospital care is incapable of dealing with those numbers. It’s those folks who require immediate long term protection, at least until an anti-viral inoculation is devised (even fast tracked we’re talking at least 6 months to a year away).

Chloroquine and Hydrochloroquine may have potential, but these are anecdotal treatments.  FDA approval is premature and will result in massive pharmaceutical price gauging.  The irresponsible promotion of two drugs as a potentially effective treatment for critical patients is designed to calm public fears, not as a cure.  The word “potentially” is what troubles me here.  Without lab testing and trials how would anyone know these anecdotal drugs work on active coronavirus patients better than placebo? How can this be justified when those same drugs which work effectively on specific diseases as prescribed are now unavailable to patients who depended on them for a lifeline?

Food for thought.

The tougher road ahead involves individuals adjusting to more isolation, businesses adjusting to belt tightening and trust in scientific research that an anti-viral inoculation will eventually be proven effective against Corvid-19.  But there is a lesson to be learned from this on reasonable preparedness for future pandemics since the economic costs increase dramatically from playing catch-up.

This isn’t a prediction from the Comicstradamus, Comicadonis (Theo?) or your’s truly.  But if blame is desired you can say these musings originated with Nostalgiadramas, ...tongue suppressor firmly planted in cheek.  From my perspective, we should be looking at everything happening on a global scale and closer to home in the present ...as unemotionally as possible... from a clear, pragmatic, common sense perspective.  Economically, collectors will probably be better off than nervous speculators who constantly flip books.  Those speculators who do best will take a longer view.

[Midas79]

Indeed. 

[lou_fine]

43 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

But there is a lesson to be learned from this on reasonable preparedness for future pandemics since the economic costs increase dramatically from playing catch-up.

Being willing to take big steps right at the front end for the sake of the "public good" is definitely a much smarter play than trying to take progressively baby step after baby step as the crisis worsens.  

Especially when you just take a look at the Taiwan example as compared to Canada since both of these countries were at the same point in terms of total number of cases less than a month ago:  

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/taiwan-covid-19-canada-1.5502194

Especially if you look at the more up-to-date stats where Canada is sadly (i.e. in near lockdown mode ) now approaching 7,500 cases  and over 80 deaths, while Taiwan is happily (i.e. business pretty much as per normal ) still lagging far behind with barely touching 300 cases in total and only a small handful of deaths to date.  And that's for a country that's been banned from the WHO and hence took matters into their own hands, and yet surprisingly, were able to keep their body counts down even with direct flights coming right in from the epicenter of Wuhan.    

For us comic book collectors, the saddest part about this whole fiasco is that not only can we not go down to our LCS's right now, but we are not even sure if they will ever be able to open their doors again going forward.    

 

[1950's war comics]

On 3/19/2020 at 11:01 AM, batman_fan said:

Going to be cross posting this.  Just got my winnings today.  No regrets on my end for spending the money.  The piece is spectacular in person.

i love the Charlie Brown baseball related strips... everything from Joe Shlabotnik's bubble gum card  to Snoopy breaking Hank Aaron's record 

[szav]

On 3/25/2020 at 7:43 PM, szav said:

I put a dozen or so garbage GA books into the auction...mailed them in like 3 months ago so way before this started.  They're at about half what I initially considered the low end of my expectation with 4-5 days to go.  I'm actually somewhat relieved, thought I might get totally hosed but I'm close to break even on them now.

Garbage books have done surprisingly well.  Had a dozen in the auction and 5 days ago they were sitting at $500...but are up past $1,500 total now and 5 of them don't close till tomorrow.  All in all breathing a big sigh of relief as they're already at what I considered mid range estimate when I submitted them before Christmas. 

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, szav said:

On 3/25/2020 at 7:43 PM, szav said:

I put a dozen or so garbage GA books into the auction...mailed them in like 3 months ago so way before this started.  They're at about half what I initially considered the low end of my expectation with 4-5 days to go.  I'm actually somewhat relieved, thought I might get totally hosed but I'm close to break even on them now.

Garbage books have done surprisingly well.  Had a dozen in the auction and 5 days ago they were sitting at $500...but are up past $1,500 total now and 5 of them don't close till tomorrow.  All in all breathing a big sigh of relief as they're already at what I considered mid range estimate when I submitted them before Christmas. 

Well, that's definitely good news for you and also a positive sign (so far) for GA collectors, especially given these uncertain economic times we are living through nowadays.  

Hopefully, it's still a big thumbs up for the rest of your books and be sure to let us know how it all worked out for you when it's all said and done tomorrow night then.  

If so, Mitch just might have to hold off a bit on his end of the world predictions for the holders of these GA and early SA books.  

[jimbo_7071]

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, that's definitely good news for you and also a positive sign (so far) for GA collectors, especially given these uncertain economic times we are living through nowadays.  

Hopefully, it's still a big thumbs up for the rest of your books and be sure to let us know how it all worked out for you when it's all said and done tomorrow night then.  

If so, Mitch just might have to hold off a bit on his end of the world predictions for the holders of these GA and early SA books.  

Even those of us who are expecting a decline in prices didn't expect it to be immediate. The effects on the economy in general and the collectibles market in particular won't be clear for many months. What if a collector owns a buffet-style restaurant? How much will business be down this year? What about a collector who owns a martial arts studio? How many parents will pull their kids out of extracurricular activities? How many people won't buy that new car  because they decided to work  from home permanently? That car salesman who relies on commissions might have to let go of a few items from his collection. The belt tightening will begin in earnest six months or so down the road when people have run out of rainy-day money to spend on comic books. Some people will do just fine, but the supply-and-demand curve is going to shift.

Edited March 31, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[SuperBird]

I keep waiting for prices to drop. Hasn't happened yet on anything I usually watch. (doesn't mean it won't, as nobody knows the future)

[Sauce Dog]

15 minutes ago, SuperBird said:

I keep waiting for prices to drop. Hasn't happened yet on anything I usually watch. (doesn't mean it won't, as nobody knows the future)

Same, might be far too early for such drops, with people still in a little bit of denial about the severity of the pandemic (and assuming it's going to blow over very soon)....at the same time, with issues that rarely hit the market its hard to tell if it the final bid price took a hit (Such as the Chamber of Chills #23 that wen't for $31,000)

Edited March 31, 2020 by Sauce Dog

[batman_fan]

11 minutes ago, Sauce Dog said:

Same, might be far too early for such drops, with people still in a little bit of denial about the severity of the pandemic (and assuming it's going to blow over very soon)....at the same time, with issues that rarely hit the market its hard to tell if it the final bid price took a hit (Such as the Chamber of Chills #23 that wen't for $31,000)

That one really shocked me, $31k was very strong in my humble opinion.

[october]

26 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

That one really shocked me, $31k was very strong in my humble opinion.

I was floored by that price. It's a great book, but there are some nice File Copies out there. 

 

[batman_fan]

3 minutes ago, october said:

I was floored by that price. It's a great book, but there are some nice File Copies out there. 

 

That one is right purty 

[Sauce Dog]

22 minutes ago, october said:

I was floored by that price. It's a great book, but there are some nice File Copies out there. 

 

Yup - in fact I was planning on listing my File Copy but when I found out that one was up for auction I decided to wait until it was over. Mine looks fairly close to the above (much closer to the 9.2 in the auction), but has a major fault with it (Staple rust), but that just makes it the most affordable way to get a copy that looks like a 9.0+   Will be listing it shortly after I hear back from CGC about one question about possibly regrading it (wanted to know if that fault was something a qualifier label would address and allow it to have a more accurate grade number)

Edited March 31, 2020 by Sauce Dog

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

9 minutes ago, Sauce Dog said:

Yup - in fact I was planning on listing my File Copy but when I found out that one was up for auction I decided to wait until it was over. Mine looks fairly close to the above (much closer to the 9.2 in the auction), but has a major fault with it (Staple rust), but that just makes it the most affordable way to get a copy that looks like a 9.0+   Will be listing it shortly after I hear back from CGC about one question about possibly regrading it (wanted to know if that fault was something a qualifier label would address and allow it to have a more accurate grade number)

I think you’ll do better with a 9.0 blue label than a 9.2 qualified

[Sauce Dog]

5 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I think you’ll do better with a 9.0 blue label than a 9.2 qualified

haha, if it was that high a blue I would keep it...but mine is a 4.5 blue due to the staples.

[Mmehdy]

5 hours ago, SuperBird said:

I keep waiting for prices to drop. Hasn't happened yet on anything I usually watch. (doesn't mean it won't, as nobody knows the future)

The price correction will occur over time, our GA is not a daily up and down extremely active stock market with prices changing with the wind every second . The prices most likely to drop the biggest are common Ultra high grade marvels and recent stuff as well as trendy comic books whose prices were pumped up due to comic movie mania.

 Also, as time goes on more collectors will need to cash, again if supply is low the price change should be a very gradual decline and then a positive upswing. But if a number of large GA/SA comic book collections hit the market at the same time, look for oversupply on an already tight spending period in the GA/SA comic book market. That is real issue here..supply.

The last area of comic book collecting to be hit with a downturn will be GA. It is just plain rarer that the other comic books, and especially in good condition, unrestored, good page and staple quality. I think if we consider  the Flipper/Investor they are more likely to own Spiderman 2 than Wonder Woman 47. So I see more stability in GA clearly over SA in the long run over this unknown crisis period. Still the need for cash does not distinguish between GA/SA/Copper collectors.

Our comic book market has gone thru some amazing publicity in terms  of all time record breaking comic book films, comic book convention attendance growth including small regional shows like "terry's" in LA and increased interest in comic book retailers, such as "free comic book day". That focus is going to be redirected  to saving people's lives, creating new jobs, and repairing the damage done to our economy/. So this has to be factored in on future GA/SA prices. Movies theaters are gonna be closed for a very long time and if China is the model for at least the end of the year, same with comic conventions. The comic book stores will be the first to reopen and we just don't know how long it will take to regain 50% of their business, let alone get back to 100%. I am not doom and gloom, I am a realist getting this out to our comic community to deal with it head on, and not make it worse than it really is. We will survive and so will GA comic book collecting. But we are not for a while, gonna have a "Avengers" comic book movie setting a world wide box officer record. We are not gonna have a SDCC this year with 125,000 attendees and every media outlet in the county taking about comic books and related subjects. We are going to have to tough it out alone, and that is ok, for  when times get tough for True comic book collectors, we get tougher. Less speculators  and achieving true responsible  and sustainable value in the GA/SA market will be very beneficial in the long run for all true comic book collectors and their collections. For those who are just here to speculate go back to stocks, bonds, and gold, shorts, longs, and EFT or whatever...we don't need you.

 How we handle the drop and the eventual recovery are equally important for you and I as we are here for the long run. When either buying or selling GA at this time... if buying have a long run hold expectation, be patient for the most opportune time, and be picky. If selling, make a priority on material that you have multiple copies or, low grade or any restored comic books and hold on as long as possible to the books you truly love. Hitting this fear right between the eyes, we are gonna survive. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Mmehdy

[manofsteel]

Mitch, you need a drink.

 

[Mmehdy]

11 minutes ago, manofsteel said:

Mitch, you need a drink.

 

make that a double...LOL

[szav]

21 hours ago, lou_fine said:

let us know how it all worked out for you when it's all said and done tomorrow night then.  

Tonight's books did pretty much the same as last night.  Had one underperformer but it still went for 3 times what I paid for it raw a year ago so its hard to get too upset.  

All in all still breathing a sigh of relief, and I think that its a good sign that low-mid grade non classic GA still held its own, at least for what I sold. 

That said, I cant disagree with those saying the crash may not be for a few weeks or months yet, who knows.  At least it didn't crash yet...but, I'll admit I only put these books up because I mailed them in 3 months ago.  There is zero chance that I'll be consigning anything for the next year, barring some miraculous vaccine or treatment breakthrough.  I don't need the money bad enough during what seems like a really risky and uncertain time to sell.

And now the wait...crossing my fingers CLink doesn't declare bankruptcy before they take their 45-60 days to send me my money...