GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[Mmehdy]

22 minutes ago, szav said:

Tonight's books did pretty much the same as last night.  Had one underperformer but it still went for 3 times what I paid for it raw a year ago so its hard to get too upset.  

All in all still breathing a sigh of relief, and I think that its a good sign that low-mid grade non classic GA still held its own, at least for what I sold. 

That said, I cant disagree with those saying the crash may not be for a few weeks or months yet, who knows.  At least it didn't crash yet...but, I'll admit I only put these books up because I mailed them in 3 months ago.  There is zero chance that I'll be consigning anything for the next year, barring some miraculous vaccine or treatment breakthrough.  I don't need the money bad enough during what seems like a really risky and uncertain time to sell.

And now the wait...crossing my fingers CLink doesn't declare bankruptcy before they take their 45-60 days to send me my money...

that is great news...CONG  and you are wise to "hold" on  for the long run.

Today it appears that Diamond announced that  that it is not paying it vendors this week. That is significant as it appears its customers have not all paid diamond. There could be a vendor revolt and DC or Marvel could go out on their own. This is going to be interesting on how it plays, where it becomes tricky is will new product get log-jammed up, especially new comic books. I buy the GAreprint books at least one or two per month. Mycomicshop has apparently closed due to the Virus which has a pretty big presence on the web selling part of GA/SA etc. This normal going into a shut down...how they come back is what counts. One less avenue to sell or trade GA now however.

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

3 hours ago, manofsteel said:

Mitch, you need a drink.

 

make that a double...LOL

Come on, you guys..................Mitch is trying to talk down the market so that he can hopefully snap up some bargain basment deals here.  

No harm and no foul here, as long as he's not going after the same bargain basement deals that I want to pick up on the cheap in these upcoming auctions.    

[fifties]

2 hours ago, szav said:

There is zero chance that I'll be consigning anything for the next year, barring some miraculous vaccine or treatment breakthrough.  I don't need the money bad enough during what seems like a really risky and uncertain time to sell.

 

Indeed.  So any pipe dreams that a plethora of Golden Age comic books are going to be flooding the market anytime soon, causing the supply to increase and resultant values to decline, is folly.  Of course there will be sporadic and occasional offerings, but as the exception, not the rule.  At least in my view.

[tabcom]

On 3/30/2020 at 12:39 PM, Sauce Dog said:

It is also might not necessarily be the financial need to liquidate collections being the reason for many books hitting the market, but boredom.

This was my motivation to run a sale within this very forum. I sold many items at fair market value. I plan to add more, out of boredom.

[jimbo_7071]

4 hours ago, fifties said:

Indeed.  So any pipe dreams that a plethora of Golden Age comic books are going to be flooding the market anytime soon, causing the supply to increase and resultant values to decline, is folly.  Of course there will be sporadic and occasional offerings, but as the exception, not the rule.  At least in my view.

The supply of highly desirable material may decrease initially because most people will let go of their best stuff last. Demand will also be down, however. Most books that do sell will be selling at a discount once the dust settles. For every wealthy collector willing to pay 2019 prices in the online auctions, there will be a not-so-wealthy underbidder who won't be there any longer. No-reserve auctions will be much riskier for sellers.

-

No one knows what the long-term impact of the coronavirus will be. Most of the deaths will occur among the elderly and infirm, most of whom are no longer part of the workforce, so at first blush one might expect a rebound within a year or two. However, this pandemic could get into people's psyches and change their spending habits permanently. That could lead to a 1930s-style depression.

[Mmehdy]

8 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

The supply of highly desirable material may decrease initially because most people will let go of their best stuff last. Demand will also be down, however. Most books that do sell will be selling at a discount once the dust settles. For every wealthy collector willing to pay 2019 prices in the online auctions, there will be a not-so-wealthy underbidder who won't be there any longer. No-reserve auctions will be much riskier for sellers.

-

No one knows what the long-term impact of the coronavirus will be. Most of the deaths will occur among the elderly and infirm, most of whom are no longer part of the workforce, so at first blush one might expect a rebound within a year or two. However, this pandemic could get into people's psyches and change their spending habits permanently. That could lead to a 1930s-style depression.

I agree with you that the online auctions especially if they are discontinued for a while and  will have  a "pile up" of consignments will decrease resulting  action prices due to oversupply and lack of demand. If I were selling, I would go to E-Bay and list  immediately as you had the "Ford Motor Company" of E-bay comic book sellers just shut down in MyComicShop and who knows who is gonna be next. Sending GA comic books to Auction houses  to sell at an unknown price at and at a unknown time, and not knowing what you are competing against  in the auction does not make good business sense to me. With our free time, Look over your collection and pull out the weak spots and try to sell or trade up if you can and make you GA collection better and stronger. On the buy side, MyComicShop when it opens, you might be able to pick up some good deals on GA. I would also look at Ha.com "make an offer to the owner"....its an offer. I would look at older sales of GA/SA books as those prices tend to be lower..possible that book you have waited 10 years for is on there, the seller worst case can only  say no or counter offer...Look carefully into also contacting by E-mail Ga/SA dealers and providing them a want list and what you would be wiling to pay.

On you 1930's possible depression mode, I would strongly disagree that this is gonna be a repeat.  The previous depression  lasted 10 years and it took a WWII to get our attention out of that mental and physical downturn. Since that time, everything has increased in s terms of speed in our lives. Instant news means instant positive news on the other side. Worst case in my book is 3 years...one year to beat this thing and two years to recover. I just think we can bounce back much quicker and we have already lived thru one and learned a lot from it. The key is not how long it is gonna be, the key is what it looks like after full recovery. I would see the major issues being that it would hasten comic book print media's life if Diamond was to go down or the comic book distribution model changed significantly. It would be easier for either Marvel or DC to say we are going digital, Like Mad Magazine's slow death. Diamond will be on the other hand never the same with its tight distribution control. Best case 1/3 all comics shops are gone in the next 3 years...lower print runs, less $$$ for Diamond and they are gonna take a hit no matter what. I think it is important for every Ga/SA collector that Major comic book companies continue to print comic books. I don't want out GA/SA to go the way of the 33' records. So we need to watch this carefully as it unfolds. I think people change rather quickly, we tend to forget the bad in the past and have tunnel vision into the future, especially the younger that you are. So, I think we all need to be concerned, and pay close attention to what is going on, but we will come out of this, and I think sooner, rather than later.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[bluechip]

Don't know if anybody's already explored this view, but if people trend toward doing more things indoors, then all things which can be done or obtained and enjoyed in the germ-free confines of home, may become more popular.  And collecting is one of the things you can do with your money that doesn't require behavior that feels risky in times like this.

[Cat-Man_America]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

I agree with you that the online auctions especially if they are discontinued for a while and  will have  a "pile up" of consignments will decrease resulting  action prices due to oversupply and lack of demand. If I were selling, I would go to E-Bay and list  immediately as you had the "Ford Motor Company" of E-bay comic book sellers just shut down in MyComicShop and who knows who is gonna be next. Sending GA comic books to Auction houses  to sell at an unknown price at and at a unknown time, and not knowing what you are competing against  in the auction does not make good business sense to me. With our free time, Look over your collection and pull out the weak spots and try to sell or trade up if you can and make you GA collection better and stronger. On the buy side, MyComicShop when it opens, you might be able to pick up some good deals on GA. I would also look at Ha.com "make an offer to the owner"....its an offer. I would look at older sales of GA/SA books as those prices tend to be lower..possible that book you have waited 10 years for is on there, the seller worst case can only  say no or counter offer...Look carefully into also contacting by E-mail Ga/SA dealers and providing them a want list and what you would be wiling to pay.

On you 1930's possible depression mode, I would strongly disagree that this is gonna be a repeat.  The previous depression  lasted 10 years and it took a WWII to get our attention out of that mental and physical downturn. Since that time, everything has increased in s terms of speed in our lives. Instant news means instant positive news on the other side. Worst case in my book is 3 years...one year to beat this thing and two years to recover. I just think we can bounce back much quicker and we have already lived thru one and learned a lot from it. The key is not how long it is gonna be, the key is what it looks like after full recovery. I would see the major issues being that it would hasten comic book print media's life if Diamond was to go down or the comic book distribution model changed significantly. It would be easier for either Marvel or DC to say we are going digital, Like Mad Magazine's slow death. Diamond will be on the other hand never the same with its tight distribution control. Best case 1/3 all comics shops are gone in the next 3 years...lower print runs, less $$$ for Diamond and they are gonna take a hit no matter what. I think it is important for every Ga/SA collector that Major comic book companies continue to print comic books. I don't want out GA/SA to go the way of the 33' records. So we need to watch this carefully as it unfolds. I think people change rather quickly, we tend to forget the bad in the past and have tunnel vision into the future, especially the younger that you are. So, I think we all need to be concerned, and pay close attention to what is going on, but we will come out of this, and I think sooner, rather than later.

I’m inclined to agree that the recovery will be on a much shorter time span than the Great Depression.  That said, comic shops don’t have to be tethered to a single source of comic book distribution.  Comics make up less than 50% of what most modern retail comic shop stock.  Comic shops sell, games, hardcover books, action figures, costumes, collector supplies, etc.  Heck, Bedrock City even sells breath mints! Note: It wouldn’t surprise me if Richard started offering cloves of garlic as an option to social distance from Covid-19 and vampires.

If Diamond went belly up, something would take it’s place to meet the demands of physical comic collectors.  If every major goes full digital, then there’ll probably be a rise of new indies producing comics on that quaint paper medium.  While I do see the growth of digital as gradually shifting away from paper, it isn’t a quantum shift and it isn’t likely to disrupt collecting. Generational differences notwithstanding, collecting is in our DNA and paper is still a staple in the collecting world.  

BTW, in the Great Depression, disposable paper products reached their zenith after the dollar tanked.  I’m not suggesting that a 30’s financial equivalent is likely to repeat, but if it did laptops, iPads and iPhones would be costly luxuries for some folks, and electronics require a power source.  That’s why electronic media probably won’t replace print media across the board anytime soon.

In any case, it’ll definitely be interesting watching the changing dynamics as this unfolds.  Great discussion, Mitch. 

[Tri-Color Brian]

I, for one, don't worry about the market...but I am enjoying some little deals here and there for otherwise scarce and pricey books.  My LCS just let go of these on Monday for under guide... They aren't high grade, but I don't need high grade to be happy...

[jimbo_7071]

16 hours ago, bluechip said:

Don't know if anybody's already explored this view, but if people trend toward doing more things indoors, then all things which can be done or obtained and enjoyed in the germ-free confines of home, may become more popular.  And collecting is one of the things you can do with your money that doesn't require behavior that feels risky in times like this.

It could be. Hobby Lobby just re-opened as an "essential business" in areas under lockdown.

-

Here in Michigan, AMC just closed one of their biggest suburban multiplexes. I guess they didn't have high hopes for profitability any time in the near future.

[batman_fan]

50 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

It could be. Hobby Lobby just re-opened as an "essential business" in areas under lockdown.

-

Here in Michigan, AMC just closed one of their biggest suburban multiplexes. I guess they didn't have high hopes for profitability any time in the near future.

From my experience (my company and and some folks at other companies), it is quite easy to get essential status and require people to come in to work.  Company just has to do some basic preventive measures to remove legal liability if someone gets sick, although I haven’t heard it being tested in court yet.

[Tri-Color Brian]

CGC seems to be an "essential" service... but mycomicshop.com has shut down temporarily due to COVID 19.  Go figure...

Edited April 3, 2020 by Tri-ColorBrian

[Robot Man]

1 hour ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

CGC seems to be an "essential" service... but mycomicshop.com has shut down temporarily due to COVID 19.  Go figure...

CGC is in FL. I rest my case...

[bluechip]

Are subscriptions no longer a thing?    And if not, is it because mail can't guarantee a comic will arrive in 9.8 condition and not enough buyers can conceive of buying a comic just to read?  

Publishers may need to adapt.   And perhaps CGC can offer a service, getting them directly from the publisher and sending them out slabbed,

Edited April 3, 2020 by bluechip

[bluechip]

On 4/1/2020 at 1:43 PM, Cat-Man_America said:

I’m inclined to agree that the recovery will be on a much shorter time span than the Great Depression.  That said, comic shops don’t have to be tethered to a single source of comic book distribution.  Comics make up less than 50% of what most modern retail comic shop stock.  Comic shops sell, games, hardcover books, action figures, costumes, collector supplies, etc.  Heck, Bedrock City even sells breath mints! Note: It wouldn’t surprise me if Richard started offering cloves of garlic as an option to social distance from Covid-19 and vampires.

If Diamond went belly up, something would take it’s place to meet the demands of physical comic collectors.  If every major goes full digital, then there’ll probably be a rise of new indies producing comics on that quaint paper medium.  While I do see the growth of digital as gradually shifting away from paper, it isn’t a quantum shift and it isn’t likely to disrupt collecting. Generational differences notwithstanding, collecting is in our DNA and paper is still a staple in the collecting world.  

BTW, in the Great Depression, disposable paper products reached their zenith after the dollar tanked.  I’m not suggesting that a 30’s financial equivalent is likely to repeat, but if it did laptops, iPads and iPhones would be costly luxuries for some folks, and electronics require a power source.  That’s why electronic media probably won’t replace print media across the board anytime soon.

In any case, it’ll definitely be interesting watching the changing dynamics as this unfolds.  Great discussion, Mitch. 

The Great Depression actually saw the birth of comics as a medium, and experienced exponential growth and popularity.   Similar growth occurred in all entertainment mediums, including film, theater, vaudeville and radio (advertiser supported).

Not so sure how the Depression years were for antiques and collectibles, though...  

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, Robot Man said:

3 hours ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

CGC seems to be an "essential" service... but mycomicshop.com has shut down temporarily due to COVID 19.  Go figure...

CGC is in FL. I rest my case...

Well, I assume they must have moved all of their graders out of their closed in virus infected facilities and onto the sunny wide open beaches of Florida then.  

I guess the PQ on these latest slabbed books will now start coming back as "well-tanned" then.  

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, bluechip said:

The Great Depression actually saw the birth of comics as a medium, and experienced exponential growth and popularity.   Similar growth occurred in all entertainment mediums, including film, theater, vaudeville and radio (advertiser supported).

Not so sure how the Depression years were for antiques and collectibles, though...  

" The US coin market held reasonably firm through the depression" as people filled in holes in penny boards during the 1930's.I do not believe that GA/SA comic book collecting especially in the GCG era of collecting/speculating can really compare to that.. It is a good question to ask however, the last great depression hit us hard for 10 years. This depression is gonna hit harder in terms of unemployment but in quicker amount of time. It might even be called when we get out this a "Flash Crash" and I hope it turns out this way. I saw something interesting today as I went to my bank and that branch and I went to another and that was closed...no signs directing a branch was open...this could be the way things are gonna be for a while, if any GA collectors do not know how use that ATM or the banks website I would learn now. By going ATM it limits a bank run. In the prior depression, there was a" bank holiday". It just seemed to me a bit different out there, today.

 In terms of selling, we might revert to the old days of comic book collecting. Trading...which is not a bad thing at all...you could value the books pretty easy and you are not limited to a buyers ability to pay. If things get really tough out there, this might be the way to go to get rid of  your dupes and material you can live without. The best way to do this is trade up as I think quality material will not decrease as much and will come back sooner price wise. Again, as a member above just posted 4 good GA books that he purchased from a dealer at a very attractive price...I would contact them...We have Bedrock, Gator and a whole host of other members who have AMAZING stock and besides being cool they have always been very reasonable and fair to deal with. Given these uncertain times, I have no doubt  they would continue to do so.

Remember that GA is "GOLD".

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Tri-Color Brian]

16 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

" The US coin market held reasonably firm through the depression" as people filled in holes in penny boards during the 1930's.I do not believe that GA/SA comic book collecting especially in the GCG era of collecting/speculating can really compare to that.. It is a good question to ask however, the last great depression hit us hard for 10 years. This depression is gonna hit harder in terms of unemployment but in quicker amount of time. It might even be called when we get out this a "Flash Crash" and I hope it turns out this way. I saw something interesting today as I went to my bank and that branch and I went to another and that was closed...no signs directing a branch was open...this could be the way things are gonna be for a while, if any GA collectors do not know how use that ATM or the banks website I would learn now. By going ATM it limits a bank run. In the prior depression, there was a" bank holiday". It just seemed to me a bit different out there, today.

 In terms of selling, we might revert to the old days of comic book collecting. Trading...which is not a bad thing at all...you could value the books pretty easy and you are not limited to a buyers ability to pay. If things get really tough out there, this might be the way to go to get rid of  your dupes and material you can live without. The best way to do this is trade up as I think quality material will not decrease as much and will come back sooner price wise. Again, as a member above just posted 3 great books that he purchased from a dealer at a very attractive price...I would contact them...We have Bedrock, Gator and a whole host of other members who have AMAZING stock and besides being cool they have always been very reasonable and fair to deal with. Given these uncertain times, I have no doubt  they would continue to do so.

Remember that GA is "GOLD".

 

Assuming you are talking about me and not someone else who posted 3 books, which one of the "4" books I posted above is not "great"? 

[Mmehdy]

26 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

Assuming you are talking about me and not someone else who posted 3 books, which one of the "4" books I posted above is not "great"? 

FIXED...LOL

[Tri-Color Brian]

3 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

FIXED...LOL

Now you changed them from "great" to good...