GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[Cat-Man_America]

6 hours ago, telerites said:

So did my ex but she always swam away 

You’ve apparently learned one of the great philosophical lessons of life: You can tune a piano, but you can’t tuna fish.

[jimbo_7071]

On 6/1/2020 at 9:35 PM, KCOComics said:

I think that's a bit of a misconception.  Most investors who try to time the market fail.  While "buying the dip" with strong companies is good advice,  most successful investors build wealth by diversifying and staying in the market. 

As for comics, I would argue the vast majority of GA collectors are working class. Even guys dropping 5 figures on books are usually selling parts of their collection to fund new additions. I bought Hulk 1 this year by selling FF48, DD1 and a bunch of ASM. I hated to see them go, but I couldn't justify parting with that much cash otherwise. 

The guys dropping 6 and 7 figures on comics are the minority,  but they do exist. 

I'm not out buying any keys, but I'm a GA collector, and my income is from tutoring and substitute teaching. I don't have health insurance, and I've been driving the same car since 2006. I got a chuckle out of the idea that comic collectors are rich.

[Mmehdy]

GA/SA Market update:

 1-The first effects of virus shutdown has happened. DC comic books will not longer be distributed threw Diamond Dist. They dumped them for some smaller USA distributors.I wonder Chuck from Mile High comics is going to follow thru with his statement that he is sticking by Diamond and the same with MCS with the past, and Chuck said new books were one and done recently .. Fans in Canada could be out of luck. What is really happening here is corporate bottom line after the shut down of the Studios and movie theaters. Look for large cost cutting down the road.DC is going digital with new comics and for publishing only Graphic Novels thru Penguin is the eventual outcome here. Look for Marvel to adopt the same cost cutting further down the road. DC new comic books are gonna be harder to get, less collectors etc are the fallout. GA/SA prices for the long run will be affected negatively with the decrease of new hard copy published comic books and decreased new comic book collectors. We are knew it was coming, just not this soon.

 2-Please support you local comic book shop, we had a shop here in La Mesa broken into and looted here is San Diego County. Now with distribution confusion and a whole host of other problems...please make it a point to shop there and not do the easy thing and buy it from Amazon. For example I just purchased the  Vanguard's Fantastic paintings of Frazetta directly from the publisher and not Amazon. That book looks amazing, go on Vanguards facebook page and check out some of the pics. Every company needs our support now.

3-GAO ( government accounting office) says it will take about 10 years to fully recover, I do not buy that theory.

 I hope all of you are well, safe, and encouraged by the latest employment numbers and the calming of the country. We still have a lot to work thru but with the help of Cap, Bat and Superman plus our GA spirit we will.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Northwest]

35 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

GA/SA Market update

GA/SA prices for the long run will be affected negatively with the decrease of new hard copy published comic books and decreased new comic book collectors. We are knew it was coming, just not this soon.

 

There are countless other roads to vintage collecting besides modern readers. How much this affects vintage prices is still an open question. 🤠

[piper]

My LCS in Canada appears to have no issues getting floppies or trades. 

[bluechip]

On 6/1/2020 at 10:51 AM, Mmehdy said:

 

 

If you asked me to predict where the softening of prices will begin it that will be easy. It will not be at the very bottom or at the very top..it will be in the middle,

 

 

I have always subscribed to a version of this, buying essentially at both ends.  If I "just want" a copy of a book, and it's expensive, I get a low grade copy that has what I like about it.  A few extra numerical notches in grade point for structural integrity that you may not even see if it's in a slab, don't make a book worth several times a similar copy with lesser technical integrity if it has all the stuff I like about it.  (especially when structural integrity is given more weight then eye appeal).    

If on the other I am willing to pay more for one that's "special" I prefer it to be really, exceptionally nice and not just sorta nicer.  But for me it can be unique and special in another way, aside from pure condition, like with a pedigree or provenance that I like for some reason.   Like an Okajima with a Pacific War cover (which I mention specifically because I have no such books, so it's clear I am not making the point so I can hype something)  

Your other points I agree with is that the drop or rise in collectibles of all kinds will be tied somewhat to how much inflation plays a role in the future.  And I believe that, barring a "Mad Max" sort of scenario, the best and most rare and desirable collectibles will generally deflate or inflate along with other things, such as real estate.  If your Mile High Detective 27 drops 50% in value, I would guess that the price of some primo land and buildings will drop a similar amount.  So, selling that book will enable you, roughly, to take the money and buy essentially the same things. 

Anyone who is focused on the value of their collectibles in a "Mad Max" style scenario is also, IMV, not looking at the bigger picture.  In that scenario the value of your collectibles (or for that matter your stocks, your real estate, whatever) will be among the very least of your troubles.  So if you're thinking the end times are coming, you should not be thinking Hey I'll sell my Superman 1 to buy some Berkshire Hathaway, you should be thinking of selling absolutely everything you have to "invest" in shotguns and bottled water.  

 

[Mr bla bla]

5 hours ago, bluechip said:

I have always subscribed to a version of this, buying essentially at both ends.  If I "just want" a copy of a book, and it's expensive, I get a low grade copy that has what I like about it.  A few extra numerical notches in grade point for structural integrity that you may not even see if it's in a slab, don't make a book worth several times a similar copy with lesser technical integrity if it has all the stuff I like about it.  (especially when structural integrity is given more weight then eye appeal).    

If on the other I am willing to pay more for one that's "special" I prefer it to be really, exceptionally nice and not just sorta nicer.  But for me it can be unique and special in another way, aside from pure condition, like with a pedigree or provenance that I like for some reason.   Like an Okajima with a Pacific War cover (which I mention specifically because I have no such books, so it's clear I am not making the point so I can hype something)  

Your other points I agree with is that the drop or rise in collectibles of all kinds will be tied somewhat to how much inflation plays a role in the future.  And I believe that, barring a "Mad Max" sort of scenario, the best and most rare and desirable collectibles will generally deflate or inflate along with other things, such as real estate.  If your Mile High Detective 27 drops 50% in value, I would guess that the price of some primo land and buildings will drop a similar amount.  So, selling that book will enable you, roughly, to take the money and buy essentially the same things. 

Anyone who is focused on the value of their collectibles in a "Mad Max" style scenario is also, IMV, not looking at the bigger picture.  In that scenario the value of your collectibles (or for that matter your stocks, your real estate, whatever) will be among the very least of your troubles.  So if you're thinking the end times are coming, you should not be thinking Hey I'll sell my Superman 1 to buy some Berkshire Hathaway, you should be thinking of selling absolutely everything you have to "invest" in shotguns and bottled water.  

 

Dont forget chickens, barbwire, amo and gasoline.

[EC Star&Bar]

10 hours ago, Northwest said:

There are countless other roads to vintage collecting besides modern readers. How much this affects vintage prices is still an open question. 🤠

I think you're right and at this point it's impossible to say.  The older comics market has been character-driven for many decades.  For example in the 1970s, Overstreet had relatively high values for the runs of Famous Funnies and Tip Top.  These titles' values were eventually dwarfed in comparison to superhero runs.  The characters like Captain America and Batman will always be around in varous forms of media.  Scarcity of the oldest issues of superheroes should continue to sustain high prices as demand remains high - an early issue of Action Comics for example likely will continue to climb, but how will a Popular Comics printed the same month fare?

 

 

 

[bluechip]

10 hours ago, Mr bla bla said:

Dont forget chickens, barbwire, amo and gasoline.

I was thinking solar power, portable greenhouses with a device that draws water from the air, and a lab for cloning meat.  Oh, and lots of blu-rays.

[Pat Calhoun]

in a grid-goes-down situation comics and books might beat blu-rays...(even with solar)

[bluechip]

55 minutes ago, Pat Calhoun said:

in a grid-goes-down situation comics and books might beat blu-rays...(even with solar)

solar powered generators should allow you to enjoy movies that depict a world that once was.     

[Mmehdy]

17 hours ago, bluechip said:

I have always subscribed to a version of this, buying essentially at both ends.  If I "just want" a copy of a book, and it's expensive, I get a low grade copy that has what I like about it.  A few extra numerical notches in grade point for structural integrity that you may not even see if it's in a slab, don't make a book worth several times a similar copy with lesser technical integrity if it has all the stuff I like about it.  (especially when structural integrity is given more weight then eye appeal).    

If on the other I am willing to pay more for one that's "special" I prefer it to be really, exceptionally nice and not just sorta nicer.  But for me it can be unique and special in another way, aside from pure condition, like with a pedigree or provenance that I like for some reason.   Like an Okajima with a Pacific War cover (which I mention specifically because I have no such books, so it's clear I am not making the point so I can hype something)  

Your other points I agree with is that the drop or rise in collectibles of all kinds will be tied somewhat to how much inflation plays a role in the future.  And I believe that, barring a "Mad Max" sort of scenario, the best and most rare and desirable collectibles will generally deflate or inflate along with other things, such as real estate.  If your Mile High Detective 27 drops 50% in value, I would guess that the price of some primo land and buildings will drop a similar amount.  So, selling that book will enable you, roughly, to take the money and buy essentially the same things. 

Anyone who is focused on the value of their collectibles in a "Mad Max" style scenario is also, IMV, not looking at the bigger picture.  In that scenario the value of your collectibles (or for that matter your stocks, your real estate, whatever) will be among the very least of your troubles.  So if you're thinking the end times are coming, you should not be thinking Hey I'll sell my Superman 1 to buy some Berkshire Hathaway, you should be thinking of selling absolutely everything you have to "invest" in shotguns and bottled water.  

 

BC..well said. I do not think that there is a end of the world immediate event for GA/SA comic book collecting or for that matter general comic book collecting. But there are major changes occurring in our overall hobby which will impact future SA/GA pricing in the long run. It appears that the trend to go digital in comic books has been pushed forward by the Virus and its economic fallout. Look at the changes to the video market which have evolved from VHS to Laser Disc(which was great by the way), DVD, Blue Ray,4K disc and now on demand in HD. Those format changes eliminated your mom and pop video store, Tower records, Blockbuster's 10,000 stores and everybody else. We are evolving into a digital comic book world with I pad's being able to blow comic book panels in amazing sharpness and detail that a paper comic book cannot. At some point only a select few antique type comic book shops will remain. 

 I really think the writing on the wall started with Mad in a way, no ads no code...then ads, then color, then no really new material...it is headed like Playboy on line. The real problem is this economic fallout will take out printed comic books and a number of shops before its natural time. The more we cut off new collectors or new material the smaller we become.

 Of course the "Super" keys which remained ingrained in the public should hold their value and be the last to decline. Low grade copies you can read and get the feel of the book, but what is coming is digital superiority in terms of color, size and access along with cost which is gonna limit collecting to "paper collectors" unless you have a found memory of the drug store, 7-11, or early comic book stores and can related to owing something that was on a newsstand 50 years ago. I feel that comic book stores bridge the gap and make new collectors want the touch, the feel, the excitement of the buy become alive.

 As we return back to normal and just accept the risk of getting the virus, like the flu every winter, the major fallout that concerns me the most is who is gonna pay for all of this bailout. It is either me and you dollar for dollar, or the government uses the slight of hand and let inflation go a bit and then pull back the reins. So what worries me the most is a rare combination of both stagnation and inflation. We have gone thru that once before in recent history and in order to push down inflation interest rates went to 19%. This cloud hanging over all of us, should make you very cautious when you purchase your GA/SA books. I believe if you are condition picky, especially in late 1945-1955 GA you should be ok provided you have taken all possible future events to discount  this.

 I am a fan of Chucks newsletter on Mile High Comics website, I have been reading it for years, some good info, a lot of chest pounding, but sometimes he can really have a sense of humor. This last one takes the cake, Mile High and Chuck always have some sort of sale going. His reaction to the DC move is that the new comic books are gonna be history. His new codeword for his sale is "DCSUCKS"...what a jokester 

[lou_fine]

20 hours ago, bluechip said:

A few extra numerical notches in grade point for structural integrity that you may not even see if it's in a slab, don't make a book worth several times a similar copy with lesser technical integrity if it has all the stuff I like about it.  (especially when structural integrity is given more weight then eye appeal). 

Hey bluechip;

You are really dating yourself here as this is no longer the era of Borock when it comes to grading at CGC. 

We are sadly now strongly ensconed in the era of Nelson when it comes to grading at CGC, when additional revenue maximization for their CCG ownership through pressable opportunities is given much more weight than structural integrity, which as you correctly say still continues to carry more weight than eye appeal.    

[KCOComics]

3 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

BC..well said. I do not think that there is a end of the world immediate event for GA/SA comic book collecting or for that matter general comic book collecting. But there are major changes occurring in our overall hobby which will impact future SA/GA pricing in the long run. It appears that the trend to go digital in comic books has been pushed forward by the Virus and its economic fallout. Look at the changes to the video market which have evolved from VHS to Laser Disc(which was great by the way), DVD, Blue Ray,4K disc and now on demand in HD. Those format changes eliminated your mom and pop video store, Tower records, Blockbuster's 10,000 stores and everybody else. We are evolving into a digital comic book world with I pad's being able to blow comic book panels in amazing sharpness and detail that a paper comic book cannot. At some point only a select few antique type comic book shops will remain. 

 I really think the writing on the wall started with Mad in a way, no ads no code...then ads, then color, then no really new material...it is headed like Playboy on line. The real problem is this economic fallout will take out printed comic books and a number of shops before its natural time. The more we cut off new collectors or new material the smaller we become.

 Of course the "Super" keys which remained ingrained in the public should hold their value and be the last to decline. Low grade copies you can read and get the feel of the book, but what is coming is digital superiority in terms of color, size and access along with cost which is gonna limit collecting to "paper collectors" unless you have a found memory of the drug store, 7-11, or early comic book stores and can related to owing something that was on a newsstand 50 years ago. I feel that comic book stores bridge the gap and make new collectors want the touch, the feel, the excitement of the buy become alive.

 As we return back to normal and just accept the risk of getting the virus, like the flu every winter, the major fallout that concerns me the most is who is gonna pay for all of this bailout. It is either me and you dollar for dollar, or the government uses the slight of hand and let inflation go a bit and then pull back the reins. So what worries me the most is a rare combination of both stagnation and inflation. We have gone thru that once before in recent history and in order to push down inflation interest rates went to 19%. This cloud hanging over all of us, should make you very cautious when you purchase your GA/SA books. I believe if you are condition picky, especially in late 1945-1955 GA you should be ok provided you have taken all possible future events to discount  this.

 I am a fan of Chucks newsletter on Mile High Comics website, I have been reading it for years, some good info, a lot of chest pounding, but sometimes he can really have a sense of humor. This last one takes the cake, Mile High and Chuck always have some sort of sale going. His reaction to the DC move is that the new comic books are gonna be history. His new codeword for his sale is "DCSUCKS"...what a jokester 

You are right,  the delivery methods are going to change. Markets evolve and printed comic books will be strained. 

My son is 7. He loves collecting comics with me and we go to comic book stores and buy "true believers" to read all the SA marvel keys together.  

I know we are the minority, but outside of having a dorky dad, graphic novels are enormously popular with kids. I've bought him every "Dog Man" and "Captain underpants" book.

The delivery method is evolving for sure and comic book stores will need to evolve to survive. Graphic novels,  streaming video and digital content are the present and the future. 

My kids will have a different relationship with the Avengers and Xmen than I did.  I grew up after the days of buying comics at the local drug store. I fell in love with comics because of after school cartoons and card collecting.  There are allot of collectors my age on these boards with similar experiences who's childhood love for those characters evolved into SA and GA collecting.  

My kids are falling in love with the same charectors because of movies and streaming content. Will that one day translate into collecting? No idea!  But I do think collecting will survive the evolution of the delivery method. 

And look,  if 50 years from now my collection is worth pennies on the dollar,  I'm ok with that.  I've enjoyed this hobby since I was a kid. And collecting with my kids..... going to cons, reading old stories,  filling in key books to complete a run, I love it! 

Just no PCH until they are older! 

[fifties]

On 6/5/2020 at 7:25 PM, bluechip said:

  So if you're thinking the end times are coming, you should not be thinking Hey I'll sell my Superman 1 to buy some Berkshire Hathaway, you should be thinking of selling absolutely everything you have to "invest" in shotguns and bottled water.  

 

Nope, just booze and women...

[Math Teacher]

23 hours ago, KCOComics said:

 I know we are the minority, but outside of having a dorky dad, graphic novels are enormously popular with kids. I've bought him every "Dog Man" and "Captain underpants" book.
 

I have donated MANY of my TBPs to the Middle School at my local school district. The librarian (whoops, media specialist) says they get checked often.

[Arkadin]

Here we go.

[lou_fine]

8 hours ago, Arkadin said:

Here we go.

To where, pray tell???    

[KCOComics]

43 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

To where, pray tell???    

Big market crash today. 

I'm guessing the poster means it's going to drive speculation about collectibles. 

The markets should be interesting to watch over the next few days,  weeks and months. People were pretty convinced we were going to see a V shaped recovery earlier this week. Now we'll have to see if the sell off continues, making a W shaped recovery ? Or if this is a quick correction from all the buying and things start looking up again shortly. 

 

[Cat-Man_America]

59 minutes ago, KCOComics said:

Big market crash today. 

I'm guessing the poster means it's going to drive speculation about collectibles. 

The markets should be interesting to watch over the next few days,  weeks and months. People were pretty convinced we were going to see a V shaped recovery earlier this week. Now we'll have to see if the sell off continues, making a W shaped recovery ? Or if this is a quick correction from all the buying and things start looking up again shortly. 

 

A convincing recovery isn't likely to take shape until there's a safe, reliable, readily available Covid-19 vaccine.