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GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020
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908 posts in this topic

On 8/25/2020 at 1:01 PM, Mmehdy said:

For now, its survival.

Hey Mitch;

You are definitely sounding a bit like Warren Buffet here when he talks about the stock market nowadays.  :bigsmile:

Yet, when you check out some of the other threads on the boards here including some of the other forums, it sounds as though there's still a lot of excess money to throw at books as people are sitting at home with less places to spend their money as compared to before this pandemic hit us.  Especially when you definitely can't go travelling to any vacation points nowadays as Americans are blocked from most countries throughout the world and you are also much less tempted to go out to restaurants and bars to spend your money.  :(

Not sure where else all of this money is coming from to spend on books in this current environment, but maybe it also has something to do with the seemingly never-ending stimulus checks or possible from the dreaded stock market where old time investors like Buffet and the likes are probably avoiding right now like the plague.  And yet the newbie generation of investors or day traders are probably making a small fortune on some of the tech stocks and fad companies with their share prices not only at record highs, but  also doubling or quadrupling since they hit bottom just a few months ago back in March of this year.  :flipbait:

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On 4/9/2020 at 4:38 PM, Ryan. said:

I rebagged all of my CGC books yesterday. (yes, I am aware of the absurdity of that sentence but quarantines make for strange behaviors). I have them in one of those hard plastic lockable BCW bins, on the floor next to my staircase, waiting for me to take them upstairs. I forgot the bin was there and next thing I know my three year old is stepping up on it and using it to launch himself to the floor. I almost had a heart attack. 

I just got a couple of those lockable BCW graded storage bins.

If you aren't going to stack them, what are your thoughts on leaving the flaps open (if that's an option for you), versus keeping them shut?

Any reasons to leave them open (temperature-wise, or otherwise)?

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40 minutes ago, circumstances said:

I just got a couple of those lockable BCW graded storage bins.

If you aren't going to stack them, what are your thoughts on leaving the flaps open (if that's an option for you), versus keeping them shut?

Any reasons to leave them open (temperature-wise, or otherwise)?

They don't appear airtight when you shut them so I don't believe it will materially affect the comics inside one way or the other. 

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1 hour ago, Ryan. said:

They don't appear airtight when you shut them so I don't believe it will materially affect the comics inside one way or the other. 

Thanks. Definitely not airtight, just wondering if the contents would stay a few degrees cooler (or any other advantage) if the top flaps were left open.

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On 8/27/2020 at 2:09 PM, lou_fine said:

Hey Mitch;

You are definitely sounding a bit like Warren Buffet here when he talks about the stock market nowadays.  :bigsmile:

Yet, when you check out some of the other threads on the boards here including some of the other forums, it sounds as though there's still a lot of excess money to throw at books as people are sitting at home with less places to spend their money as compared to before this pandemic hit us.  Especially when you definitely can't go travelling to any vacation points nowadays as Americans are blocked from most countries throughout the world and you are also much less tempted to go out to restaurants and bars to spend your money.  :(

Not sure where else all of this money is coming from to spend on books in this current environment, but maybe it also has something to do with the seemingly never-ending stimulus checks or possible from the dreaded stock market where old time investors like Buffet and the likes are probably avoiding right now like the plague.  And yet the newbie generation of investors or day traders are probably making a small fortune on some of the tech stocks and fad companies with their share prices not only at record highs, but  also doubling or quadrupling since they hit bottom just a few months ago back in March of this year.  :flipbait:

Economic change is the a ship slowly going like the titanic towards an iceberg. Shock and the  consequences of a economic shutdown need time to sink in. One of the more significant clues looking ahead like the Federal Reserve does is the Fed changing their policy and allowing low interest rates even if inflation. Why...they know what's coming. The lay-offs are slowly beginning to pile, this week 18,000 las vegas casino jobs disappeared. Lou, this pandemic will have effects which will occur unevenly on all kinds of different markets. For example the real estate market is red hot...why because less people are putting their houses up for sale due to the pandemic thus creating a shortage of the normal supply of houses available and couple that with two major factors of 1-low, low long term interest rates which are increasing buyer power and a mass migration of people going from the city to the suburbs-there is a great NY times article on that. If supply remains low, that market could unaffected or actually increase in value during this crisis. Even during the depression the old saying is "people have to have a place to live" applies here. While the stock seems to offer amazing quick returns..beware what goes up can go down. SO I think a safe haven would be CGC graded Ga/SA with strong page quality seems to be to be more stable. I do not see a great gain like the market did earlier this year translating over to massive GA/SA price increase over time.

 The GA/SA comic book market has a long way to go as well as all of us together. My sources say Q1 2021 for a vaccine if that is true then the potential is with some vision in the fog for some type of possible ending to this situation. I think a number of true comic book collectors will tough it out no matter what, my worry comes not for the brother and sisters on this board, but how many pure speculators are there in the hobby now and how they react to a downturn in the GA/SA market. We are about to find out when we go thru some tough times, but as mom said, "when times are tough, the tough get tougher. I hope we get thru this sooner and stronger, but when you purchase or sell GA/SA thru this extraordinary time be selective and demand the best of the best for your collection. 

Edited by Mmehdy
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45 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

The GA/SA comic book market has a long way to go as well as all of us together. My sources say Q1 2021 for a vaccine if that is true then the potential is with some vision in the fog for some type of possible ending to this situation. I think a number of true comic book collectors will tough it out no matter what, my worry comes not for the brother and sisters on this board, but how many pure speculators are there in the hobby now and how they react to a downturn in the GA/SA market. We are about to find out when we go thru some tough times, but as mom said, "when times are tough, the tough get tougher. I hope we get thru this sooner and stronger, but when you purchase or sell GA/SA thru this extraordinary time be selective and demand the best of the best for your collection. 

There certainly has been a lot of prognosticating of gloom and doom in the comic book market and the economy in general in recent months, but I think there's a lot more resiliency in our general spirit and economy than many seem to believe.  Companies and people are adapting to survive.

Yes, a great number of people are hurting, and recovery for many will be slow, but... while I'm not an expert in finance,  it doesn't look quite like the economic apocalypse is on the horizon.

With regards to the subject of comics and GA comics, I'm wondering if what we'll see when this is over/under control at some point in the next couple months, is a temporary sharp dip in the market.  I feel like a lot of people have been holding off from selling because 1) they're hesitant and waiting to see how things go, and 2) they don't even want to go to the post office or go through all the steps necessary to sell (all you have to look at is CGCs grading turn around times to know they're not getting much mailed to them right now).

So maybe we'll see a big dump and dip in the market after a vaccine, followed by a gradual rise back to current levels as we get back to normal, or the "new normal" if you're one of the people that believes things are somehow going to be radically different from now on (I think there will be some changes, but perhaps not as many as some people think).

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18 hours ago, szav said:

There certainly has been a lot of prognosticating of gloom and doom in the comic book market and the economy in general in recent months, but I think there's a lot more resiliency in our general spirit and economy than many seem to believe.  Companies and people are adapting to survive.

Yes, a great number of people are hurting, and recovery for many will be slow, but... while I'm not an expert in finance,  it doesn't look quite like the economic apocalypse is on the horizon.

With regards to the subject of comics and GA comics, I'm wondering if what we'll see when this is over/under control at some point in the next couple months, is a temporary sharp dip in the market.  I feel like a lot of people have been holding off from selling because 1) they're hesitant and waiting to see how things go, and 2) they don't even want to go to the post office or go through all the steps necessary to sell (all you have to look at is CGCs grading turn around times to know they're not getting much mailed to them right now).

So maybe we'll see a big dump and dip in the market after a vaccine, followed by a gradual rise back to current levels as we get back to normal, or the "new normal" if you're one of the people that believes things are somehow going to be radically different from now on (I think there will be some changes, but perhaps not as many as some people think).

There are many reasons why folks who’ve been dedicated collectors or speculators may decide to step back, perhaps even take advantage of generous client offers from auction houses.  Those reasons are only exacerbated by high unemployment and social unrest in the midst of an economic downturn and a global pandemic.  Sometimes collectors feel the pull to re-evaluate collecting based on personal or family needs, health issues, etc., that can’t be predicted in accordance with the widespread issues mentioned.  

Taking stock ...not the Wall Street variety... is something most of us are inclined to do from time to time when presented with complex challenges.  This isn’t to suggest the passion for comics loses importance, but taking a time out and stepping back from collecting when other things in life take precedent without giving into panic or paranoia over the waxing and waning of market values can also be viewed as part of a healthy business cycle.  Just sayin’.

 

Edited by Cat-Man_America
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Reviewing the results from the most recent Heritage, Comicconnect, and Comiclink auctions, I think it is fair to say that the current crisis is not having a big enough impact to force auction purchases downward. In fact, I would hypothesize that a lot of the strong prices achieved were due to people lacking the ability to travel or engage in a lot of the regular activities that are the norm at this time. Unemployment appears to have had very little to no impact on the market. In addition, it is also possible that a lot of individuals are reluctant to put their significant books in no reserve auctions due to fears that their books could take significant losses. However this opens a huge opportunity for individuals to do the opposite and bring their better to best books to auction allowing them to take advantage of the lack of competition. I would recommend that anyone considering cosigning should do so now while the competition is minimal and a significant amount of the population is sitting on excess cash. 

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3 hours ago, Black Captain said:

Reviewing the results from the most recent Heritage, Comicconnect, and Comiclink auctions, I think it is fair to say that the current crisis is not having a big enough impact to force auction purchases downward. In fact, I would hypothesize that a lot of the strong prices achieved were due to people lacking the ability to travel or engage in a lot of the regular activities that are the norm at this time. Unemployment appears to have had very little to no impact on the market. In addition, it is also possible that a lot of individuals are reluctant to put their significant books in no reserve auctions due to fears that their books could take significant losses. However this opens a huge opportunity for individuals to do the opposite and bring their better to best books to auction allowing them to take advantage of the lack of competition. I would recommend that anyone considering cosigning should do so now while the competition is minimal and a significant amount of the population is sitting on excess cash. 

I hope you’re right. I have a handful of GA books in the upcoming September Heritage Auction. It’s my first time selling in anytime of Auction Format and I’m a little nervous about it.

There all classic covers but one never really knows...

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I understand your concerns. When you read some of the earlier responses in this thread you will notice that many of the suggestions were to sell your restored or low grade books at this time. This advice falls under the category of cautious conventional wisdom and if you notice there are some great books in the current auctions I mentioned. But, in my opinion the abundance is not there. If your books are the type of books that bidders would normally fight over, then you will probably lose a little on some books but do better than expected on others. Overall bidders have proven in the last  Heritage, Comicconnect, and Comiclink auctions that have cash and are willing to still fight for good books. If your books are great books then they will stand out and do well for THIS TIME PERIOD. Although I agree in the future this will change as cosigners see these current positive results, decide that the water is warm enough to swim in,  then jump in with both feet causing the previously predicted gluttony of books creating massive competition, dragging many prices down. 

Edited by Black Captain
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On 8/25/2020 at 1:01 PM, Mmehdy said:

No offense taken

In the good old days, say in Feb of this year, you could take a chance, a gamble that paying the highest price for a GA/SA comic book was a pretty good bet, that demand and appreciation would protect you in the future. So I would say adherence to the above was pretty lax.

Today, I would not deviate from my comments in your continuing collecting and buying/ selling GA/SA comic books and original comic book art. Using "caution" is a bit of an understatement. News everyday seems a bit bleaker and bleaker, A fellow  long time GA collector and wife  both of whom work for American Airlines one a pilot and his wife a  flight attendant were hit between the eyes today with AA  cutting  off 19,000 employee's. He done collecting until this work and pandemic  situation is settled and called me somewhat in a panic saying Should I consign part of my collection to HA.Com. It does not help that they have dual coast residences and costs which go with them. 

 My advice was simple,do not panic, do not do a knee-jerk reaction BUT think it out. They might be able to do some type of buy-out or long term furlow and of the wife wants the GA comic books out the door first as they are "not doing anything anyway".  Dowsize not only in terms of real estate, the Cali property will be history, but carefully look at your GA collection,   grade the books with the CGC which have not yet been graded and keep GA books which would be impossible to replace or which mean the most to you and them decide on the rest. Everyday, GA/SA collectors are making  this decision, and  this is the tip of the iceberg which is yet to come. I hope someday he becomes active buyer in the GA/SA comic book market as he is a true comic book collector. For now, its survival.

It does seem, though, that although this situation happened to somebody you know, there are plenty of new or traditional buyers that are still paying record prices when he auctions them off. Haven't seen a whole lot of dip or flat out tanking like you suggested would happen in the beginning of this thread. As a matter of fact its the opposite. If we are simply stating, at some point, the market will correct... thats a given. Nothing goes up forever.

You can't have a market correction 9 months after the start of the pandemic, during an election (or even later), and then say I told you so. 

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On 8/31/2020 at 11:36 AM, Joshua33 said:

It does seem, though, that although this situation happened to somebody you know, there are plenty of new or traditional buyers that are still paying record prices when he auctions them off. Haven't seen a whole lot of dip or flat out tanking like you suggested would happen in the beginning of this thread. As a matter of fact its the opposite. If we are simply stating, at some point, the market will correct... thats a given. Nothing goes up forever.

You can't have a market correction 9 months after the start of the pandemic, during an election (or even later), and then say I told you so. 

Let me respond to your points as follows:

1-"there are still plenty of traditional buyers that still paying record prices"...what a great time to consolidate your collection, sell dups and get top dollar and that is my advice on the selling front. On the flip side, my advice is do not be the person "paying" a record price at this time. If you are in luck and get a record price, bank it, and wait for a more opportune time to purchase and  I think this advice is going to be spot on, when looking back with hindsight.

2- "haven't seen a whole lot of dip or flat out taking like you suggested would happen in the beginning of this thead" I suggest you study those comments more carefully as I said these events will take a minimum of 18 months to pay out. It could be longer and up to 3 years. This is not a overnight crash like the 1929 stock market, there will be no "black tuesday" in the GA/SA market period. There will be a sustained period of price decline marked by a flat or bottoming out period, and then a slow upward recovery. Whether its 30%, 40%, or 50% it is gonna have to play out over a long period of time. I am not suggesting a 90% Black Tuesday market correction will ever happen in the current GA/SA comic book market.

3-"you can't have a market correction 9 months after the start of the pandemic, during an election or even later and then say I told you so"...First the true effects of this GA/SA comic book market and its impact will not take 9 months or thru a election of a president, or any clear line in the sand date. I never predicted  when it will occur to every GA/SA comic book collector on this board, But, based upon my 50 plus years in the GA/SA comic book market, we are going to have a deep correction of GA/SA prices for a sustained period of time, it is not a question of will it happen, it is now a question of when. With the closing of comic book stores, the changing landscape at DC comics with cutting of 1/3 of its publications, and too many other factors to list, it will not be just one...it is many reasons  with many different time lines intersecting to create a decline in the market. . I suggest you reappraoch me on this thead when the proper time has been allowed to see the true economic impact of this virus and the economic damage both temporary and permanent on the GA/SA comic book market. This is not a personel "I told you so", as I hope I am 100% wrong on this, I am a fellow GA/SA collector and I certainly do not want to economic damage to my or your collection in terms of resale value. If we are prepared and plan correctly, we will lessen the impact of this impeding correction and recover faster over time. If we time this right there will be great opportunity purchase and collect Sa/GA comic books and upgrade our collections.

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1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

Let me respond to your points as follows:

1-"there are still plenty of traditional buyers that still paying record prices"...what a great time to consolidate your collection, sell dups and get top dollar and that is my advice on the selling front. On the flip side, my advice is do not be the person "paying" a record price at this time. If you are in luck and get a record price, bank it, and wait for a more opportune time to purchase and  I think this advice is going to be spot on, when looking back with hindsight.

2- "haven't seen a whole lot of dip or flat out taking like you suggested would happen in the beginning of this thead" I suggest you study those comments more carefully as I said these events will take a minimum of 18 months to pay out. It could be longer and up to 3 years. This is not a overnight crash like the 1929 stock market, there will be no "black tuesday" in the GA/SA market period. There will be a sustained period of price decline marked by a flat or bottoming out period, and then a slow upward recovery. Whether its 30%, 40%, or 50% it is gonna have to play out over a long period of time. I am not suggesting a 90% Black Tuesday market correction will ever happen in the current GA/SA comic book market.

3-"you can't have a market correction 9 months after the start of the pandemic, during an election or even later and then say I told you so"...First the true effects of this GA/SA comic book market and its impact will not take 9 months or thru a election of a president, or any clear line in the sand date. I never predicted  when it will occur to every GA/SA comic book collector on this board, But, based upon my 50 plus years in the GA/SA comic book market, we are going to have a deep correction of GA/SA prices for a sustained period of time, it is not a question of will it happen, it is now a question of when. With the closing of comic book stores, the changing landscape at DC comics with cutting of 1/3 of its publications, and too many other factors to list, it will not be just one...it is many reasons  with many different time lines intersecting to create a decline in the market. . I suggest you reappraoch me on this thead when the proper time has been allowed to see the true economic impact of this virus and the economic damage both temporary and permanent on the GA/SA comic book market. This is not a personel "I told you so", as I hope I am 100% wrong on this, I am a fellow GA/SA collector and I certainly do not want to economic damage to my or your collection in terms of resale value. If we are prepared and plan correctly, we will lessen the impact of this impeding correction and recover faster over time. If we time this right there will be great opportunity purchase and collect Sa/GA comic books and upgrade our collections.

I agree with most of that. I just a paid a monster amount for a book at the CC auction, but it was a book that was only available because of these prices. I didn't particularly care about the price because I'll bury the book. 

I do think the end (peak) is nigh, simply based on available books. I mean, seeing Amazing Man 22, Fantastic Comics 3, Super Mystery Vol.3 6, the cover art for Chamber of Chills 19, etc., all in the same month demonstrates other collectors opinions on cashing out as well.

Simply my opinion, but I believe it has ZERO to do with a "financial crisis" (we aren't in one), nor Covid, as recent records have proven. :foryou:

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Some folks may be missing the forest for the trees in these discussions.  Those looking up, bullishly trying to gauge the economy through rising stock values probably don’t see any indication of the sky falling because outwardly everything doesn’t look too bad.  Then again, Mary Antoinette probably didn’t check the public pulse before being persuaded to examine the basket weaving.

Service sector unemployment, concerns over workplace health precautions, school closings, collegiate spread and the uncertainty of a viable vaccine in a global pandemic is a real world crisis. Wall Street is an inaccurate barometer of financial health in a pandemic because the bigger a business is the more loses can be cut through layoffs while negotiating bailouts in the form of government loans & grants.  Money provided to businesses either comes from taxes already accrued or it’s public debt borrowed against future revenue (printing money, so to speak, which will likely become a longer term inflationary concern).

For collectors the terrain is a bit hazier.  On the one hand we have books and art bringing record hammer prices at auction.  On the other we have an auction house trying to entice potential consignors with higher bonus premiums.  This only adds to the confusion for those on the fence about where things actually are in a real world sense as there’s an expiration date on these special consignment offers.  Do any of the prestigious auction houses know something about collecting in the near term that the marketplace doesn’t?

My earlier post reflected a reassessment of big ticket collecting in a stressful period based on family health concerns and economic uncertainty in a chaotic environment exacerbated by a global pandemic.  it was an overview of the hobby’s health assessed from my current perspective on collecting.  Earlier thoughts weren’t intended as a dour prediction of doom and gloom for the hobby, but rather a personal, contemplative analysis from my current perspective.  Those who know my wife and I will probably understand this viewpoint better than most.

 

Edited by Cat-Man_America
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3 hours ago, cgcmod8 said:

The thread has been cleaned up.  Lets keep this on topic, which is Golden Age comics.  

That's cool, I understand  and thanks for not deleting the whole thread. This thread is gonna take a long time to play out. We don't have a real timeline here. But what we do know is that the vaccine could one of two types...the first one will slow down or shut down the symptoms that should hopefully be available  early 2021, as far as a cure to prevent it, I think that is a long time off or maybe never. I know Dr Facui says masks until 2022. The last pandemic went on for 4 years.

 As far as the GA/SA comic book market is concerned as long as those stimulus checks of $1200  come from the government, it should starve off depression. But as some point, somebody is gonna have to pay for all this "free" money and that means me and you. More tax means less disposable income for GA/SA comic books, auction prices could increase if sales tax or shipping increases with inflation. 

 At this juncture if GA/SA comic books could become a sold and recognized hedge against the coming  tidal wave  of inflation, then GA/SA comics, only investment quality, CGC unrestored higher grade and strong page quality, then like the current real estate market it should prosper or at least hold thru the toughest periods of this economic reckoning. Cash savings are gonna take a big devaluation, especially with Federal Reserve holding down interest rates, which in turn holds down what the bank can pay for your savings account. What do you do, the stock market is a yo-yo, where do you go...I understand the advantage of real estate its a tangible asset no matter what happens to the value, and its the same for GA/SA comic books,  they are tangible but more than ever you should get then CGC'ed should ever be in a position where you need to act fast in a liquidation emergency.  That future  valuation is contingent upon the economy not going into a depression.

 So here is my GA/SA buying and selling advice  November 2020.

 1-Any purchase over $1000 in the middle of this pandemic should be considered an "Investment" purchase regardless of your economic status.  So on those purchases avoid restored unless a mega key that you will never be able to afford, avoid any type of tape, poor page quality and fading of any kind. If you do purchase a ungraded book over $1000 get it graded asap and get some type of guarantee that you can return it if there is some type of undisclosed restoration. Pedigree books would be my number 1 purchase  priority, those stand the best chance of appreciating in these inflationary times ahead, I just went to home depo for some lumber for a home project  and the prices have gone up like 100% in the last 7 months...even a mid grade pedigree would be a good buy. So in terms of buying you might have pay more out now....but you will be safer in the long run. Pedigree GA/SA should remain a  rock solid purchase during this pandemic and its inflationary after effects.

2-Sell UP....meaning if love the book, try to get a higher grade copy and sell the lower, if you have a non-pedigree copy and can get one, exchange it out. I would sell again any low grade unrestored, ungraded, restored GA/SA and take the proceeds and buy some of the quality books that are out there now, such as the ones on the current HA.com signature auction in November. Action houses now give you an advance if you consign your GA/SA comic books, and I know HA.com will either give you an auction credit as well so you can sell and upgrade very easy. For example send them some books to put in the weekly auction and buy  better something in signature auction...easy upgrade.

3-Trading either to fellow collector or dealer...some dealers will trade down to get more stock while you trade up to make your collection better. Collector to collector is the best as you can get a more even deal that way. I am surprised that given the lack of conventions, flea markets, and comic shop closures that more of this does not go on. As long as you upgrade, this will work.

We are in like chapter 3 or 10 chapter story. It is going to be very interesting to see given the increased demand for collectable comic books due to stay at home conditions and inflation whether we can make  investment quality CGC  graded GA/SA  an official inflation buster.

 

Edited by Mmehdy
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