GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[fishbone]

My collection is priceless to me, so I don't see a huge affect on me and GA collecting. I'm not selling, and I'm not going to be a shark looking for "insane" deals  (but I'll still peruse around just in case there is something I just can't say No to). All this will pass eventually and most collectors will  just "resume" their passions and interests when the World resumes normal living. Financial corrections will probably be long-lasting overall, but history shows constant ebbs and flows, GA market no different. Try to stay positive friends as much as you can 

Edited March 27, 2020 by fishbone

[Tri-Color Brian]

Found another screaming deal on ebay.  A book listed for $100 was on sale for only $99.  I grabbed it.  What a sucker that seller was...

[Tri-Color Brian]

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, fishbone said:

My collection is priceless to me, so I don't see a huge affect on me and GA collecting. I'm not selling, and I'm not going to be a shark looking for "insane" deals  (but I'll still peruse around just in case there is something I just can't say No to). All this will pass eventually and most collectors will  just "resume" their passions and interests when the World resumes normal living. Financial corrections will probably be long-lasting overall, but history shows constant ebbs and flows, GA market no different. Try to stay positive friends as much as you can 

I am in agreement with you 100% our collections are priceless. It is however not looking just for insane deals...but also access to rare GA that never comes on the market and  also rare in terms of the GA book condition wise.. I think is especially great time to focus on "white page" GA/SA quality books or pedigree books where the multiples of guide will not be overwhelming in terms of price. The price is one factor, but serious GA collectors might have the ability to fill in those holes on material which is just never available or affordable.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Mmehdy

[jimbo_7071]

There's more slabbed GA material on eBay than usual. I always search "CGC" and then filter the results to the Golden Age category. For as long as I can remember, there have consistently been nine-thousand-some-odd total items available. This week, the total has consistently been over ten thousand. I haven't seen anything great, though. Most of the extra offerings seem to be low-grade and mid-grade copies of not-particularly-sought-after issues.

[batman_fan]

1 hour ago, jimbo_7071 said:

There's more slabbed GA material on eBay than usual. I always search "CGC" and then filter the results to the Golden Age category. For as long as I can remember, there have consistently been nine-thousand-some-odd total items available. This week, the total has consistently been over ten thousand. I haven't seen anything great, though. Most of the extra offerings seem to be low-grade and mid-grade copies of not-particularly-sought-after issues.

Could be more people with time to post stuff.

[KCOComics]

2 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

There's more slabbed GA material on eBay than usual. I always search "CGC" and then filter the results to the Golden Age category. For as long as I can remember, there have consistently been nine-thousand-some-odd total items available. This week, the total has consistently been over ten thousand. I haven't seen anything great, though. Most of the extra offerings seem to be low-grade and mid-grade copies of not-particularly-sought-after issues.

I think it's comic shops temporarly being locked down and looking for ways to make some sales. 

I know the shop I go to has been listing books all day. I'm considering buying a pretty big book to help them out,  even though I know I could get it cheaper elsewhere. 

[Mmehdy]

45 minutes ago, KCOComics said:

I think it's comic shops temporarly being locked down and looking for ways to make some sales. 

I know the shop I go to has been listing books all day. I'm considering buying a pretty big book to help them out,  even though I know I could get it cheaper elsewhere. 

Sometimes paying a bit more to make sure your comic book shop stays open is worth it in the long run both for the store owner and yourself. I hope you pull the trigger on that purchase. If this is a big book, sometime the store could be flexible and give you a payment plan without interest charges.

I think a other way to obtain GA/SA material is think outside of the box. You could place local ads in newspapers/craig's list etc saying you are "paying cash for comics"  as the times get more difficult. I know that approach is a "shot in the dark" but it could pay off big time for a lucky board member if somebody has held on to the material and remembers they have in in the garage in storage.

 There still is a lot of undiscovered collections especially SA...waiting to be found.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Mmehdy

[KCOComics]

46 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Sometimes paying a bit more to make sure your comic book shop stays open is worth it in the long run both for the store owner and yourself. I hope you pull the trigger on that purchase. If this is a big book, sometime the store could be flexible and give you a payment plan without interest charges.

I think a other way to obtain GA/SA material is think outside of the box. You could place local ads in newspapers/craig's list etc saying you are "paying cash for comics"  as the times get more difficult. I know that approach is a "shot in the dark" but it could pay off big time for a lucky board member if somebody has held on to the material and remembers they have in in the garage in storage.

 There still is a lot of undiscovered collections especially SA...waiting to be found.

Yeah, I'm going to purchase it. They've been good to me over the years and these are unique times. 

I figure I'll pull the trigger and then bring them some books to have slabbed which I know helps them out with CGC. 

The book is incredible hulk 2 by the way. 

[Mmehdy]

WEEK IN REVIEW

General Comic Book Market:

The most significant event is Diamond and all new comic book publishing stopped being distributed . Just like about everything else. The New comic book market has been accused of a lot flooding lately with Marvel and DC leading the pack. This could stem the 5 different covers per issue collectors over to the "the real action and true comic book collectable the GA/SA comic book market. With nothing new, cheap back issues sales might make a comeback on E-bay etc. Overall it hurts the new comic book market in the long run with lot of major damage and increase the time that Digital Comic books will take over. If 1/3 of the remaining comic book stores never reopen , look for even lower new comic book sales and conversion of the format to Graphic Novel only, except digital.

GA/SA comic book market: The sky did not fall. There are beginning signs of market decline and increased supply on E-Bay etc. We are way behind the stock market and will take time to fully feel the effects of this recession/depression on the market. However, the stock market will recover first and we will follow behind.

Virus GA/SA impact timeline. The most interesting article I read all week was in the Hollywood reporter. It was the information reading between the lines that troubled me.China has given the OK to reopen hundreds of movie theaters in the country. They shut them down on the threat of the second wave of coronavirus infections.

" over 600 movie theaters across china were given the green light to reopen their doors over the past week..until there were all shut down again by government order. It was the beginning of a phased reopening of 70,000 movie theaters.  They are way ahead of us, the other interesting fact or alleged  fact that I read about China was a 5/10% reinfection rate of people getting the virus again Everything you here from that country is to be taken with a grain of salt. They are 2/3 months ahead of us, so I think our shutdown will be greater than I first estimated.  Comic book conventions might be finished for the year.

Overall for this week GA/SA prices held up very well given the conditions that exist right now. No panic, no mass dumping, and good sales. I believe that certain areas of the county are going get hit a lot harder than others similar to china. Those comic book shops, collectors are going to be the most likely to sell or close up.

 Other areas should be very stable and the need to sell/close decreased depending upon length of time of shutdown.

 One day at a time......

 

 

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

10 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

WEEK IN REVIEW

General Comic Book Market:

The most significant event is Diamond and all new comic book publishing stopped being distributed . Just like about everything else. The New comic book market has been accused of a lot flooding lately with Marvel and DC leading the pack. This could stem the 5 different covers per issue collectors over to the "the real action and true comic book collectable the GA/SA comic book market. With nothing new, cheap back issues sales might make a comeback on E-bay etc. Overall it hurts the new comic book market in the long run with lot of major damage and increase the time that Digital Comic books will take over. If 1/3 of the remaining comic book stores never reopen , look for even lower new comic book sales and conversion of the format to Graphic Novel only, except digital.

GA/SA comic book market: The sky did not fall. There are beginning signs of market decline and increased supply on E-Bay etc. We are way behind the stock market and will take time to fully feel the effects of this recession/depression on the market. However, the stock market will recover first and we will follow behind.

Virus GA/SA impact timeline. The most interesting article I read all week was in the Hollywood reporter. It was the information reading between the lines that troubled me.China has given the OK to reopen hundreds of movie theaters in the country. They shut them down on the threat of the second wave of coronavirus infections.

" over 600 movie theaters across china were given the green light to reopen their doors over the past week..until there were all shut down again by government order. It was the beginning of a phased reopening of 70,000 movie theaters.  They are way ahead of us, the other interesting fact or alleged  fact that I read about China was a 5/10% reinfection rate of people getting the virus again Everything you here from that country is to be taken with a grain of salt. They are 2/3 months ahead of us, so I think our shutdown will be greater than I first estimated.  Comic book conventions might be finished for the year.

Overall for this week GA/SA prices held up very well given the conditions that exist right now. No panic, no mass dumping, and good sales. I believe that certain areas of the county are going get hit a lot harder than others similar to china. Those comic book shops, collectors are going to be the most likely to sell or close up.

 Other areas should be very stable and the need to sell/close decreased depending upon length of time of shutdown.

 One day at a time......

 

 

The most interesting bit of news I heard this morning was someone researching which cities best recovered from the economic impacts of the 1918 flu. They stated as they did the research it felt like reading today's headlines with closures, quarantines etc. The takeaway was that those cities or states that had the most draconian and longest measures in place came out of this the strongest. The length of isolation time quoted as required for this success was a startling 90 DAYS!! Different times of course without the medical advances that might eventually allow us to deply rapid at home testing. Anyway, for now when you look at transmission rates in the hot zones there is no way this ending soon without a game changer in testing. I think we'll say goodbye to SDCC shortly.

[batman_fan]

I will have a better feeling of how strong or week the GA market is in two more days.  Again, watching 3 GA Batman books, all are popular issues, all are below where I would expect the final hammer to be but not crazy low and the bidding usually waits until the day of the auction and often is the last few minutes of the auction.

[fifties]

On 3/27/2020 at 11:40 AM, Mmehdy said:

It is however not looking just for insane deals...but also access to rare GA that never comes on the market and  also rare in terms of the GA book condition wise.. I think is especially great time to focus on "white page" GA/SA quality books or pedigree books where the multiples of guide will not be overwhelming in terms of price. The price is one factor, but serious GA collectors might have the ability to fill in those holes on material which is just never available or affordable.

With all due respect, I think you're dreaming.  Of course there may be a few exceptions, but O/W nobody is going to let go of books that they will never be able to get their hands on again.  Far easier to simply use plastic or a HELOC in order for a collector to ride out the next month or three, financially.  A comic book investor might look at it differently, but if he knows the market, won't necessarily push the panic button just yet.

[lou_fine]

On 3/27/2020 at 11:40 AM, Mmehdy said:

I am in agreement with you 100% our collections are priceless. It is however not looking just for insane deals...but also access to rare GA that never comes on the market and  also rare in terms of the GA book condition wise..

Mitch;

What makes you think that these types of GA books would all of a sudden show up for sale or auction in what many think will be a cooling or downtime for the marketplace?  

If they were going to come out, wouldn't it have been during one of the most red hot marketplaces that we have seen during the past few years?  Especially when the types of books which you are talking about have most likely been in the hands of long time collectors for decades and is there really a need for them to put them into the marketplace right now.  

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Mitch;

What makes you think that these types of GA books would all of a sudden show up for sale or auction in what many think will be a cooling or downtime for the marketplace?  

If they were going to come out, wouldn't it have been during one of the most red hot marketplaces that we have seen during the past few years?  Especially when the types of books which you are talking about have most likely been in the hands of long time collectors for decades and is there really a need for them to put them into the marketplace right now.  

If we go into a depression...this will the greatest buying period for high grade/super rare GA in our lifetimes. Cash is King....that saying was from the previous recessions and depressions. If we go into a sustained deep recession which I feel is very likely for the next 2/3 years again we will see material coming to the market which would not be available  in a hot or normal GA market. the Great Depression of the 1920's lasted for TEN YEARS starting October 24,1929 till 1939 with 25% unemployment in 1933 at its height. We will hit this number during the heart of this crisis. I am hopeful we will recover much faster, during that period we see GA buying opportunity from all the speculators, semi-collectors , and the most recent buyers of GA/SA who have invested the most into their collection. Some will sell because they need the money, some will sell to recover something for their investment, some will sell because they are scared.

 Lou,collector's like you and me will be the last to sell, since we paid pennies on the dollar and have not paid a kings ransom for their collection.  We Lou, are in the minority of  the make up of GA comic book ownership.   However if it comes down to paying you mortgage or car payment and keeping your GA...well it is up to you if you want to give up your place to live or car to drive.  I have talked to my late grandparents who lived thru the depression.  The safest investment is gonna be real estate that  you can sustain by renting or having the cash to keep it, as they said that people have to have a place to live, a farm is also a good thing to own since you can eat off the land. They all agreed that cash is king.They told me the that people were feeling there was no way out and that it was just never gonna end. It was a total mental as well financial meltdown. Everyone was scared. That is why for many many years after total recovery  they were hesitant to buy anything on credit and hated debt of any kind. Since it was so long ago, we have forgotten about this and our economy is pumped up on credit cards and home equity loans above out heads. My grandparents learned something...and FDR said it best..."the only thing we have to fear is fear it self '. What we have forgotten about is WHY he said that during that particular time. Fear had consumed all the American people....My grandpa told me he hoped that I would never have to  LIVE thru what he went through and their was had a still a feeling  35 years later within him of distrust and maybe fear.  I think FDR nailed it , and whether real or unreal this event is gonna change the way we think for the next 20/30 years about how will live, what we need to save in case of an emergency , and how what we are buying. A $20 martini in NY is gonna take a long time to come back.

It is not just GA or SA that is gonna take a value hit...it's everything, even real estate. We are in uncharged waters today and the foreseeable future, but it is safe to say that today...25% unemployment rate is going to be a reality with all business shut but essential. Now our comeback will be swifter as I am confident we are smarter than we were back between 1929-1939." But 2/3 years seem quite reasonable especially in the entertainment/restraurant industry etc.

 Question: "What makes you think that these types of GA books would all of sudden show up for sale or auction in what many think will be a cooling or downtime for the marketplace '

 Answer: Because collectors are people Lou....people

Edited March 29, 2020 by Mmehdy

[GermanFan]

Here are the thoughts of a swedish hedge fund guy. I couldnt put it in words but I think he describes accurately what happens. Again its not the virus. Forty years ago we wouldnt even noticed this new virus. The people who are in power know that this game of globalisation and funny money is over and they look for a fresh start. He uses many more words than you but says the same: 

A $20 martini in NY is gonna take a long time to come back.

The Old Normal

Prepare for a return to sanity, to historical norms, to the old normal.

The virus was just the trigger, the pin to the bubble, the smallest and first of dominoes. As risk-parity schemes come crumbling down, causing simultaneous sell-offs in stocks and bonds, an all but unstoppable  deleveraging process is set in motion. Selling begets selling as more and more margin calls have to be met.

When leveraged bets are liquidated both the debt and the funny money melt away and disappear – and is not easily conjured into existence again. Hence the artificially high valuation levels return to their old normal, most likely not to be seen again for a generation.

The virus might even trigger a de-globalization as supply chains are disrupted, and trade wars erupt in order to protect the local economy. Just as globalization was good for growth and low inflation, de-globalization pushes growth lower and inflation higher. The same goes for the WWII age cohort retiring – they were disinflationary but now turn inflationary, while at the same time liquidating their retirement nest eggs. So, more inflation, less growth and lower valuations.

—–

The old normal, with lower valuations, lower growth, less debt, less easy money, more risk aversion, less funny get rich quick schemes, more inflation, is nothing to be feared. That’s how most of history has looked and we all managed quite fine — well, except for the last 20 years of financial folly.

What’s really good about all this, is that people in their 20s or younger get to buy assets at reasonable prices — prices that promise decent or even good returns. And they didn’t have to see a life time of savings go up in smoke. If you only had invested in stocks for 0-10 years, its much better to get this re-set now than had you only 0-20 years left to retirement.

Imagine being 65+ in 2020. If the virus doesn’t kill you, the stock market crash (half of the downside still to go) ate your savings and inflation will eat your promised state pension. That’s a tough deal, compared to a healthy 30-year old with a life time of investing at attractive valuations ahead.

But first a LOT MORE of the New Crazy

We’re not done yet, though. The plague is only reaching the end of the beginning (March 25, 2020) and it’s about to get orders of magnitude worse before the peak of the crisis, lockdowns, economic effects and crashing markets. And politicians are set to release one stimulus package crazier than the last. 1 TRILLION, 10 TRILLION, 25 TRILLION USD… who knows where the new crazy will end. One thing is for sure though, gold is the place to be through all this.

[Mmehdy]

54 minutes ago, GermanFan said:

Here are the thoughts of a swedish hedge fund guy. I couldnt put it in words but I think he describes accurately what happens. Again its not the virus. Forty years ago we wouldnt even noticed this new virus. The people who are in power know that this game of globalisation and funny money is over and they look for a fresh start. He uses many more words than you but says the same: 

A $20 martini in NY is gonna take a long time to come back.

The Old Normal

Prepare for a return to sanity, to historical norms, to the old normal.

The virus was just the trigger, the pin to the bubble, the smallest and first of dominoes. As risk-parity schemes come crumbling down, causing simultaneous sell-offs in stocks and bonds, an all but unstoppable  deleveraging process is set in motion. Selling begets selling as more and more margin calls have to be met.

When leveraged bets are liquidated both the debt and the funny money melt away and disappear – and is not easily conjured into existence again. Hence the artificially high valuation levels return to their old normal, most likely not to be seen again for a generation.

The virus might even trigger a de-globalization as supply chains are disrupted, and trade wars erupt in order to protect the local economy. Just as globalization was good for growth and low inflation, de-globalization pushes growth lower and inflation higher. The same goes for the WWII age cohort retiring – they were disinflationary but now turn inflationary, while at the same time liquidating their retirement nest eggs. So, more inflation, less growth and lower valuations.

—–

The old normal, with lower valuations, lower growth, less debt, less easy money, more risk aversion, less funny get rich quick schemes, more inflation, is nothing to be feared. That’s how most of history has looked and we all managed quite fine — well, except for the last 20 years of financial folly.

What’s really good about all this, is that people in their 20s or younger get to buy assets at reasonable prices — prices that promise decent or even good returns. And they didn’t have to see a life time of savings go up in smoke. If you only had invested in stocks for 0-10 years, its much better to get this re-set now than had you only 0-20 years left to retirement.

Imagine being 65+ in 2020. If the virus doesn’t kill you, the stock market crash (half of the downside still to go) ate your savings and inflation will eat your promised state pension. That’s a tough deal, compared to a healthy 30-year old with a life time of investing at attractive valuations ahead.

But first a LOT MORE of the New Crazy

We’re not done yet, though. The plague is only reaching the end of the beginning (March 25, 2020) and it’s about to get orders of magnitude worse before the peak of the crisis, lockdowns, economic effects and crashing markets. And politicians are set to release one stimulus package crazier than the last. 1 TRILLION, 10 TRILLION, 25 TRILLION USD… who knows where the new crazy will end. One thing is for sure though, gold is the place to be through all this.

German Fan: Wow looking forward from a world economic basis...deep and heavy post. I will say one thing to you and all board members, it is a  few quotes that caught my attention today ...FDR-The" man" in my opinion 

 "Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the assessment that something else is more important  than fear"

"Men are not prisoners of fate, but only prisoners of their own minds" 

and  Stan the Man must of been a FDR fan.....

" great power involves great responsibility" 

 Stan you devil you...LOL

 and German fan to your point...this FDR who died in 1945..

 "the real truth of the the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government of the U.S. since the days of Andrew Jackson"

 and finally the FULL quote on this

"First of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-nameles,unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance".

 

 My purpose of this thread is to get it out in the open, talk about the good, bad, and ugly. Keeping this in, creates that fear magnified ten times. If we talk it, if we agree to disagree at least we will not be surprised and shocked by its outcome.

 We really need a FDR right now..today, politics aside I think the governor of NY is doing a kick asss- job...he knows how to speak to people...like the above. I wish everybody, not just our fellow brother and sister GA/SA collectors to advance not retreat...we will win...it will take time to pick the pieces and hopefully go back from where we came from. If different, so be it....but it is time to do the right things which is clearly more important than fear. So again, if you have unwanted food, clothes, cleaning supplies DONATE them TODAY...just drop them off, If you live near a older person who lives alone at least try to contact them once day..by phone. Remember it the older alone person who has the most fear...Be positive to them...I just don't talk...yesterday we made second run and donated more clothes, cleaning supplies, and some extra medicine we would never use.

 Do something today to help in the fight that we are all in together.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Mmehdy

[waaaghboss]

On 3/27/2020 at 10:49 AM, Tri-ColorBrian said:

Found another screaming deal on ebay.  A book listed for $100 was on sale for only $99.  I grabbed it.  What a sucker that seller was...

I found a book I've been watching for a year, guy finally sent an offer to everyone watching it for A tiny bit off.   Later I saw the same exact book listed under another seller for even less than the offer, while the original listing was still active 

[waaaghboss]

51 minutes ago, GermanFan said:

Here are the thoughts of a swedish hedge fund guy. I couldnt put it in words but I think he describes accurately what happens. Again its not the virus. Forty years ago we wouldnt even noticed this new virus. The people who are in power know that this game of globalisation and funny money is over and they look for a fresh start. He uses many more words than you but says the same: 

A $20 martini in NY is gonna take a long time to come back.

The Old Normal

Prepare for a return to sanity, to historical norms, to the old normal.

The virus was just the trigger, the pin to the bubble, the smallest and first of dominoes. As risk-parity schemes come crumbling down, causing simultaneous sell-offs in stocks and bonds, an all but unstoppable  deleveraging process is set in motion. Selling begets selling as more and more margin calls have to be met.

When leveraged bets are liquidated both the debt and the funny money melt away and disappear – and is not easily conjured into existence again. Hence the artificially high valuation levels return to their old normal, most likely not to be seen again for a generation.

The virus might even trigger a de-globalization as supply chains are disrupted, and trade wars erupt in order to protect the local economy. Just as globalization was good for growth and low inflation, de-globalization pushes growth lower and inflation higher. The same goes for the WWII age cohort retiring – they were disinflationary but now turn inflationary, while at the same time liquidating their retirement nest eggs. So, more inflation, less growth and lower valuations.

—–

The old normal, with lower valuations, lower growth, less debt, less easy money, more risk aversion, less funny get rich quick schemes, more inflation, is nothing to be feared. That’s how most of history has looked and we all managed quite fine — well, except for the last 20 years of financial folly.

What’s really good about all this, is that people in their 20s or younger get to buy assets at reasonable prices — prices that promise decent or even good returns. And they didn’t have to see a life time of savings go up in smoke. If you only had invested in stocks for 0-10 years, its much better to get this re-set now than had you only 0-20 years left to retirement.

Imagine being 65+ in 2020. If the virus doesn’t kill you, the stock market crash (half of the downside still to go) ate your savings and inflation will eat your promised state pension. That’s a tough deal, compared to a healthy 30-year old with a life time of investing at attractive valuations ahead.

But first a LOT MORE of the New Crazy

We’re not done yet, though. The plague is only reaching the end of the beginning (March 25, 2020) and it’s about to get orders of magnitude worse before the peak of the crisis, lockdowns, economic effects and crashing markets. And politicians are set to release one stimulus package crazier than the last. 1 TRILLION, 10 TRILLION, 25 TRILLION USD… who knows where the new crazy will end. One thing is for sure though, gold is the place to be through all this.

Isnt gold the thing everyone is already rushing to?  Wouldn't another commodity have a better chance to retain or even grow value?  I mean, there are still people paying for ads to try and trade their gold for your cash, which is always a warning sign to me. 

[Dr. Love]

20 minutes ago, waaaghboss said:

Isnt gold the thing everyone is already rushing to?  Wouldn't another commodity have a better chance to retain or even grow value?  I mean, there are still people paying for ads to try and trade their gold for your cash, which is always a warning sign to me. 

Physical gold is pretty close to where it got to a decade ago.  Now silver on the other hand...