GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, bluechip said:

I was all but certain somebody would say that (bolded section) but the devil is in the details.  There is a world of difference between 0 lawsuits and "endless lawsuits" and neither of those extremes is a good one, but people seem to assume it has to be one or the other.  

I can all but guarantee three things.  1: there will be companies that do things which are flagrant and even malicious violations of safety, like bosses who demand people work while sick and bosses who deliberately stand, coughing, over anyone who implies they should be cautious.   2:   There will be workers who insist on a level of safety which is virtually unobtainable and who will try to sue even if they hear someone cough a hundred yards.   And 3: the immunity laws that are passed will seek to ensure that lawsuits are impossible in either example #1 or #2

In a perfect world it wouldn't have to be one or the other, but the reality of our overly litigious society may necessitate the choice of one of them. 

Allow any lawsuits for claims that you contracted coronavirus due to your job or workplace policies, and you open the floodgates to potentially millions upon millions of frivolous and/or unprovable claims that could crush businesses under the sheer cost of defending and settling them.  This doesn't help anyone but the lawyers.  This is one of the main reasons why health care costs are out of control in this country to begin with.  The damage this could cause in terms of lost jobs, and increased costs for everything (because the people who ultimately pay the cost will be the consumers and the taxpayers) would be devastating to an economy already reeling.  

I guess I just have a hard time seeing what the reasonable middle ground here could possibly be.  Maybe I'm wrong or being shortsighted, but I'm also skeptical that more than a handful of people would ever be able to prove that they got sick due to exposure at work vs exposure outside of work.  We're in unprecedented times for sure.  I've been worried from the start that the cost of our panic and reaction to this plague would take a heavier toll than the disease itself, and the thought of all the lawsuits sure to come when the dust settles is really unnerving to me.

I really hope these current social distancing policies and shelter in place orders can start cutting down on the number of people that are stricken, or that we can come up with a good treatment or vaccine sooner than predicted, and that my worries are proven to have been unfounded.

 

 

Edited by szav

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3 minutes ago, szav said:

In a perfect world it wouldn't have to be one or the other, but the reality of our overly litigious society may necessitate the choice of one of them. 

Allow any lawsuits for claims that you contracted coronavirus due to your job or workplace policies, and you open the floodgates to potentially millions upon millions of frivolous and/or unprovable claims that could crush businesses under the sheer cost of defending and settling them.  This doesn't help anyone but the lawyers.  This is one of the main reasons why health care costs are out of control in this country to begin with.  The damage this could cause in terms of lost jobs, and increased costs for everything (because the people who ultimately pay the cost will be the consumers and the taxpayers) would be devastating to an economy already reeling.  

I guess I just have a hard time seeing what the reasonable middle ground here could possibly be.  Maybe I'm wrong or being shortsighted, but I'm also skeptical that more than a handful of people would ever be able to prove that they got sick due to exposure at work vs exposure outside of work.  We're in unprecedented times for sure.  I've been worried from the start that the cost of our panic and reaction to this plague would take a heavier toll than the disease itself, and the thought of all the lawsuits sure to come when the dust settles is really unnerving to me.

 

 

 

The reasonable middle ground is the only way we'll all survive this as a society.  My better angel will always choose doctors and lawyers over financial profiteers with vested self-interests.  

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3 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

The reasonable middle ground is the only way we'll all survive this as a society.  My better angel will always choose doctors and lawyers over financial profiteers with vested self-interests.  

I've run into more than one lawyer in my day that was a self interested financial profiteer, and I wouldn't be shocked if they're licking their chops right now.  Unity is the best way to get through this though, so I'll stop rambling (on this topic anyway!) after this post.  I don't think there's an easy or good, or 100% right choice here.  I just think giving immunity would be the lesser of evils.  Would love to be proven wrong, but only time will tell.

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14 minutes ago, szav said:

I've run into more than one lawyer in my day that was a self interested financial profiteer, and I wouldn't be shocked if they're licking their chops right now.  Unity is the best way to get through this though, so I'll stop rambling (on this topic anyway!) after this post.  I don't think there's an easy or good, or 100% right choice here.  I just think giving immunity would be the lesser of evils.  Would love to be proven wrong, but only time will tell.

Anyone can be a profiteer.  I certainly don't begrudge profit ...that would be the epitome of hypocrisy... but as professions, lawyers and doctors are the backbone and defensive line of social order.  ...BTW, I'm neither a lawyer nor a doctor and I've never played one on TV (I did play a vampire once, but that's another story).  lol

My inclination is to root for the little guy up against the crunch of wealth and privilege, not because I have issues with wealth or privilege, but because I also support fairness.  What I'm saying is that a reasonable balance provides security.  The breakdown of social order occurs when a system fails to support fairness for the vast majority of folks who reside at the lower end of the spectrum.  Sadly, unity will not occur in the near term because that is not the prevailing philosophy guiding us.

That said, we're still on the same page and you're absolutely right that there's no easy, good, or 100% right choice.  It's just that there isn't any one-size-fits-all solution either.

Bottom line: With our health (knock on wood) and plenty of beers on hand ...NO Corona... there's still room for GA comics in my life even in the midst of the zombie apocalypse.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

With our health (knock on wood) and plenty of beers on hand ...NO Corona... t

Well, if this global lockdown lasts long enough, no doubt as I heard that the Corona plant down in Mexico is closed down since it's non-essential.  >:(

Edited by lou_fine

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 TMI since I don’t imbibe Corona beer it’s non-essential!, ...but fine ales are a staple of life !!!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cat-Man_America said:

 TMI since I don’t imbibe Corona beer it’s non-essential!, ...but fine ales are a staple of life !!!

 

 

So is toilet paper  lol

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, szav said:

In a perfect world it wouldn't have to be one or the other, but the reality of our overly litigious society may necessitate the choice of one of them. 

Allow any lawsuits for claims that you contracted coronavirus due to your job or workplace policies, and you open the floodgates to potentially millions upon millions of frivolous and/or unprovable claims that could crush businesses under the sheer cost of defending and settling them.  This doesn't help anyone but the lawyers.  This is one of the main reasons why health care costs are out of control in this country to begin with.  The damage this could cause in terms of lost jobs, and increased costs for everything (because the people who ultimately pay the cost will be the consumers and the taxpayers) would be devastating to an economy already reeling.  

I guess I just have a hard time seeing what the reasonable middle ground here could possibly be.  Maybe I'm wrong or being shortsighted, but I'm also skeptical that more than a handful of people would ever be able to prove that they got sick due to exposure at work vs exposure outside of work.  We're in unprecedented times for sure.  I've been worried from the start that the cost of our panic and reaction to this plague would take a heavier toll than the disease itself, and the thought of all the lawsuits sure to come when the dust settles is really unnerving to me.

I really hope these current social distancing policies and shelter in place orders can start cutting down on the number of people that are stricken, or that we can come up with a good treatment or vaccine sooner than predicted, and that my worries are proven to have been unfounded.

 

 

I've visited, worked and lived in countries where they didn't presume that allowing any lawsuits at all is necessarily catastrophic.   Yet the costs of their health care per capita isn't nowhere near what ours is. 

But while they do have lawyers who can sue for malpractice, they don't have heath care company CEOs making the kind of seven, eight and even nine figure salaries they "earn" here.

   

Edited by bluechip

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9 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, if this global lockdown lasts long enough, no doubt as I heard that the Corona plant down in Mexico is closed down since it's non-essential.  >:(

Digging around in storage the other day I discovered a box filled with booze and soda left over from a party some time ago, and there were half a dozen bottles of unopened corona beer.   I put them aside figuring maybe they'll be collector's items. 

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Posted (edited)

A real issue on GA/SA collecting is looking at  a comic book you potentially want to buy and figuring out if the book would be a good candidate for pressing etc and resubmission. It can  be graded or ungraded and we all consider this factor during a purchase. During this crisis time many factors will change the normal course  especially using this as a  major factor in a GA/SA buying decision. If you think based on these unstable market conditions you can turn an immediate profit..you had better do so ASAP... Things are gonna change.

 

1-If you have considered pressing/etc  your GA book and resubmitting it to the CGC or taking a ungraded book and putting it on steroids and then submitting  to the CGC, I would recommend you do it at once. CGC both pressing and grading services could be closed for  a very long time. Further your book could sit after being pressed  to await a regrade if you get caught in the middle. 

2- I think CGC graded GA..restored or unrestored is the best insurance you can have to try to reduce any great decline  of value in your collection, I would submit any ungraded GA/SA material which you  conclude  is worth grading ASAP. They will easier to sell or trade during this downturn.

3-We have not really hit a depression mentality yet..it is too soon...everybody becomes cheap in a depression mentality and our usual lifestyle that we have been living is gonna  substantially change.If you are buying  a GA book that you feel could be upgraded by CGC magic, you must now consider this major factor or consideration: Will the upcoming price decline will wipe out any increase in value of the GA/SA book that  you anticipated . Will the costs of upgrading adding to the purchase price put eliminate some buyers as the price will change for the book.  The more you have invested in the book, the greater the return is necessary to break even or turn a profit. When that community depression mentality hits, and it will, ALL collectable values are going to be  in the radar of  that mentality whether you collect GA/SA or comic book original art, coins etc.

 My advice to you if you will need to sell in the next 12 months or want to trade..get your books in now to the CGC to preserve your collections top value going forward while you can. We will turn the corner on this and we GA/SA collectors can go back to what we do best..Enjoy GA/SA as there is nothing else like it.

Edited by Mmehdy

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

A real issue on GA/SA collecting is looking at  a comic book you potentially want to buy and figuring out if the book would be a good candidate for pressing etc and resubmission. It can  be graded or ungraded and we all consider this factor during a purchase. During this crisis time many factors will change the normal course  especially using this as a  major factor in a GA/SA buying decision. If you think based on these unstable market conditions you can turn an immediate profit..you had better do so ASAP... Things are gonna change.

 

1-If you have considered pressing/etc  your GA book and resubmitting it to the CGC or taking a ungraded book and putting it on steroids and then submitting  to the CGC, I would recommend you do it at once. CGC both pressing and grading services could be closed for  a very long time. Further your book could sit after being pressed  to await a regrade if you get caught in the middle. 

2- I think CGC graded GA..restored or unrestored is the best insurance you can have to try to reduce any great decline  of value in your collection, I would submit any ungraded GA/SA material which you  conclude  is worth grading ASAP. They will easier to sell or trade during this downturn.

3-We have not really hit a depression mentality yet..it is too soon...everybody becomes cheap in a depression mentality and our usual lifestyle that we have been living is gonna  substantially change.If you are buying  a GA book that you feel could be upgraded by CGC magic, you must now consider this major factor or consideration: Will the upcoming price decline will wipe out any increase in value of the GA/SA book that  you anticipated . Will the costs of upgrading adding to the purchase price put eliminate some buyers as the price will change for the book.  The more you have invested in the book, the greater the return is necessary to break even or turn a profit. When that community depression mentality hits, and it will, ALL collectable values are going to be  in the radar of  that mentality whether you collect GA/SA or comic book original art, coins etc.

 My advice to you if you will need to sell in the next 12 months or want to trade..get your books in now to the CGC to preserve your collections top value going forward while you can.

"Depression mentality?"

Have you studied the economic consequences of past pandemics? I can tell you from my studies of past pandemics, in particular the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918, the evidence demonstrates that the declining economic impact was temporary and followed by an increase in manufacturing and job growth. Entertainment and service industries were the hardest hit while other areas of business including healthcare expanded. Interestingly, the greater increase in job growth were the areas with the highest mortality rate. What's the methodology you're using to make these determinations? What historical evidence do you have to support your "Depressions Mentality" conclusion? Do you have historical data upon which your conclusions are based? I'd like to see it if you do. You can PM your information. Thanks!

It's important not to speculate about depressions and economic catastrophes and "pandemania" can often create speculation that only feeds further fear.

Best to stick with the factual evidence and none of what I've studied about the economic consequences of pandemics suggests what your saying here.

Respectfully,

John

 

Edited by bronze johnny

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, bronze johnny said:

"Depression mentality?"

Have you studied the economic consequences of past pandemics? I can tell you from my studies of past pandemics, in particular the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918, the evidence demonstrates that the declining economic impact was temporary and followed by an increase in manufacturing and job growth. Entertainment and service industries were the hardest hit while other areas of business including healthcare expanded. Interestingly, the greater increase in job growth were the areas with the highest mortality rate. What's the methodology you're using to make these determinations? What historical evidence do you have to support your "Depressions Mentality" conclusion? Do you have historical data upon which your conclusions are based? I'd like to see it if you do. You can PM your information. Thanks!

It's important not to speculate about depressions and economic catastrophes and "pandemania" can often create speculation that only feeds further fear.

Best to stick with the factual evidence and none of what I've studied about the economic consequences of pandemics suggests what your saying here.

Respectfully,

John

 

 

JOHN:

The wrong assumption you making looking back at the 1918 Pandemic or others is that the economy was just that ...1918. Economy, and  for that matter any historical  economy. We live in an entirely different world today in 2020. The US government is is record breaking debt as well as Europe and nations. Our reliance on other nations, for example China for cheaper medicine was non-existent in 1918. There are many factors too many to list here which point to this being a unique situation in time for humanity.

 Historical data is important, but  only relevant  under those exact same circumstances and conditions if you want to project those exact results as the probable outcome so be it. We can use it as a reference point but not gospel. Historical data does not necessary translate into 2020 reality.

I am not speculating, but merely stating the facts which present themselves today, April 5, 2020. We are in a depression, period.  Talk to the 25% who are unemployed right now, they are in a immediate depression,.The whole world does not know it yet, but the forward thinkers do. I do not think, if you read my earlier posts, that this will last in terms of historical data-10 years for the last depression in USA that  nor will be the same, I am always siding on the positive side of things. Max 3 years..Min 1 is my best guess here. If we face "reality" and tackle as such, then we have  much less fear to deal..it is the unknown  that is greatest fear.. That is my point here. Discuss it and rather  keep it in. One of my major concerns is the underwater pension plans of the state and local governments especially the state of Illinois whose projections of fund growth to pay underfunded pensions plans have just hit a block wall.  Calpiers took a 69 billion dollar hit in value and the stock market still has a way to go. While historically there might be some incidents of the past that are very similar, there is nothing like this combination of  2020 issues together. The solution I see if the federal government taking over those  pension plans and printing money. Speaking of printing money, who is gonna pay all of this  money back 4 trillion, 20 trillion print overtime printing press with reams of paper. You and me probably thru inflation down the ,as it is a cheaper payback.. Again, a lot of unique 2020 circumstances all combining at once. This financial crisis would have probably happened anyway some where down the line, this just sped it up and put us in a very weak position to deal with it today.  There are major fundamental flaws of the world economy in 2020 and they are going be exposed. You cannot use the historical  past to say I have bad attitude about this, If we use the  past history of depressions, look at the Germany and US in the 1930's.it took a war to get out.  Today,Nobody is gonna be able to afford to go war this time.

 

 I appreciate your opinion, I hope you are 100% right and I am 100% wrong, but the probable outcome here is something in between. I ask that  you to take into consideration the  complete current economic system as it exists today which has major flaws in it and  not  just in a  historical bubble  of past pandemics  recoveries. This recession/depression  is something much bigger and fundamental system wise than this virus. We just need some luck here to find this vaccine....and get on the right track, but there are some big changes and fixes coming and they will be for the better for ALL. In the end we will overcome whatever is in front us and learn from that, be better citizens and not just look at our phones and consider that the entire world but remember that it is the real people that count and we are all in this together.

 So here is my question to you, based upon your extensive reading and understanding of past pandemics what is your best guess as to how things will play out over next 3 months, 6 months and and year? I am interested to hear your opinion.

Edited by Mmehdy

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

 

JOHN:

The wrong assumption you making looking back at the 1918 Pandemic or others is that the economy was just that ...1918. Economy, and  for that matter any historical  economy. We live in an entirely different world today in 2020. The US government is is record breaking debt as well as Europe and nations. Our reliance on other nations, for example China for cheaper medicine was non-existent in 1918. There are many factors too many to list here which point to this being a unique situation in time for humanity.

 Historical data is important, but  only relevant  under those exact same circumstances and conditions if you want to project those exact results as the probable outcome so be it. We can use it as a reference point but not gospel. Historical data does not necessary translate into 2020 reality.

I am not speculating, but merely stating the facts which present themselves today, April 5, 2020. We are in a depression, period.  Talk to the 25% who are unemployed right now, they are in a immediate depression,.The whole world does not know it yet, but the forward thinkers do. I do not think, if you read my earlier posts, that this will last in terms of historical data-10 years for the last depression in USA that  nor will be the same, I am always siding on the positive side of things. Max 3 years..Min 1 is my best guess here. If we face "reality" and tackle as such, then we have  much less fear to deal..it is the unknown  that is greatest fear.. That is my point here. Discuss it and rather  keep it in. One of my major concerns is the underwater pension plans of the state and local governments especially the state of Illinois whose projections of fund growth to pay underfunded pensions plans have just hit a block wall.  Calpiers took a 69 billion dollar hit in value and the stock market still has a way to go. While historically there might be some incidents of the past that are very similar, there is nothing like this combination of  2020 issues together. The solution I see if the federal government taking over those  pension plans and printing money. Speaking of printing money, who is gonna pay all of this  money back 4 trillion, 20 trillion print overtime printing press with reams of paper. You and me probably thru inflation down the . as it is a cheaper payback.. Again, a lot of unique 2020 circumstances all combining at once. This financial crisis would have probably happened anyway some where down the line, this just sped it up and put us in a very weak position to deal with it today.  There are major fundamental flaws of the economy of 2020 and they are going be exposed. You cannot use the historical  past to say I have bad attitude about this, If we use  past history  depressions, look at the Germany and US in the 1930's.it took a war to get out.  Today,Nobody is gonna be able to afford to go war this time.

 

 I appreciate your opinion, I hope you are 100% right and I am 100% wrong, but the probable outcome here is something in between. I ask you to taken into consideration the  complete current economic system as it exists today and  not  just in a  historical bubble  of past pandemics  recoveries. This recession/depression  is something much bigger and fundamental system wise than this virus. We just need some luck here to find this vaccine....and get on the right, but there are some big changes coming and they will be for the better for ALL.

No, I'm not making assumptuons.

Yes, there are a number of differences between today and 1918 and we can spend all day pointing them out. You’re failing to see the most significant distinction between today and 1918. The vast power of the Federal Government over economic policy dwarfs the role it had in 1918. There were no government programs like Social Security, Medicare, FDIC and Unemployment Insurance in 1918.  I'm not going to get into the whole history of the growing role government has in the American Economy since the New Deal (especially what FDR's "Second New Deal" to combat and take the country out of the depressed economy (World War ll sped things up). The advantage America has today that it didn't in 1918 has everything to do with the subsequent economic history I've outlined. The Federal Government will use the necessary power it has to ensure the economic consequences of this pandemic are short term. This will of course require (I'm going to keep this part simple because it's more complex and requires more time and energy for me to explain) more than the power of the Federal Reserve to ensure that currency is available for investment. An infrastructure bill that includes a major public works program is required as will a necessary bailout of state and local governments. That being said, the end result will be tax increases after the presidential election in November 2020 no matter what party wins. The only issue will be who pays and how much. 

Again, try not to fall for the "economic crisis was going to happen anyway but the pandemic only brought it on quicker" belief. Such a notion is grounded in pure conjecture and fails to consider the history of pandemics throughout world history (not just America although 1918 is the most recent example) going back to the dawn of Western Civilization.

The most significant concern to consider right now is whether America will learn from this since it's highly unlikely in this age of rising globalization COVID-19 will be a once in a century pandemic. America will only be afforded so many "sick days" from the work that's required to lead the world.  

Edited by bronze johnny

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1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:


We are in a depression, period.  Talk to the 25% who are unemployed right now, they are in a immediate depression

 

 Speaking of printing money, who is gonna pay all of this  money back 4 trillion, 20 trillion print overtime printing press with reams of paper.

The sky is not gonna fall, and although stats show a depression level unemployment rate at the moment, it will immediately fall once the stay at home directives are lifted, and restaurants, bars, hotels, motels, amusement parks, stadiums, government buildings, non-essential businesses, etc., can re-open.  Big difference as compared with past economic declines that took years to recover.  Yes, there will be some businesses that will remain shuttered, but they will be in the minority.

And BTW, U.S. currency is not printed on paper...

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Posted (edited)
On 4/4/2020 at 10:14 PM, Mmehdy said:
On 4/4/2020 at 9:18 PM, Chicago Boy said:

IMO Market was going soft prior to the crisis. Prices were coming back down to earth in my  outside of the big 2 and maybe marvel comics 1 making a bit of a resurgence. Ultra high grade keys would also fall into that category 

I would second that with saying more of a price pause..Cap#1 and #3 and others were a pretty good indicator the market was running out of gas, I still feel however there was some play left in that  Cap 1.,3 but things can only go in one direction for so long.

Mitch;

Although there does seem to be a bit of a drop off in prices for Cap 1, I definitely haven't seen this same drop off for Cap 3 as far as I can tell.  (shrug)

For example, if I go and take a quick look at the public auction sales results going back to 2018 for Cap 3, it actually looks more like a slight uptrend to me:  (thumbsu

1)  Cap 3 in CGC 7.5 Universal grade sold on CC in June of 2018 for $80,000 or for 5.2X condition guide;

2)  Cap 3 in CGC 6.0 Restored Slight (P) grade sold at HA in November of 2018 for $21,600 or for 3.27X Unrestored condition guide;

3)  Cap 3 in CGC 5.5 Restored Slight (B-1) grade sold at HA in November of 2019 for $24,000 or for 3.36X Unrestored condition guide;

4)  Cap 3 in CGC 4.0 Restored Slight (C-1) grade sold at HA in early March of 2020 for $18,000 or for 3.46X Unrestored condition guide; and

5)  Cap 3 in CGC 1.0 Restored grade (Signature with Married Centerfold) sold at CL in late March for $7,105 or for 5.47X Unrerstored condition guide.

Based upon these realized public auction prices for Cap 3 relative to condition guide, it looks to me like Cap 3 is still heading in one direction and running with a pretty full tank of gas, as opposed to running out of gas.  Especially considering that most of these multiples to condition guide sales results were acheived on Restored copies, as opposed to Universal unrestored copies.   hm  (thumbsu

Edited by lou_fine

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Mitch may be a bit hyperbolic hitting the Depression button, but there is some justification for global uncertainty being in the mix.  Looking at GA comics it’s difficult determining outliers from trends right now.  There are just too many variables. Cap 3 has to be assessed from several perspectives: 1) census numbers, taking into account possible crack and press resubs, 2) frequency of copies appearing on the market in auctions and 3) growth in acceptance and rising value of restored books.  With those three factors being considered value in the current market can be gauged along with any volatility produced by pandemic concerns.

In general, economic stability is being maintained through promises of stimulus money aimed at bolstering confidence in our institutions while shoring up the personal damage long enough for businesses to recover. As already alluded to, those promises come with conditions, red tape and an end user agreement that no one will be happy with when they read the fine print. There’s always a price tag that has to be paid. The real question is who’ll end up holding the check and how much will the final check be for bailing out businesses.

The best carefully worded parable I can apply to these uncertain times is this: imagine being shanghaied and indentured for years on a sailing ship in troubled seas, ...a ship with no compass, a broken rudder moving every which way and a confused Captain with no clue how to trim the sails.  Now we’re in the path of a hurricane.  It’s just an analogy, but this is where we find ourselves today.  Personally, I don’t see the sky falling, but it would be foolhardy to ignore storm clouds on the horizon and potential for instability.  The savvy collector has to take proper steps to prepare for bad weather while still keeping faith that some clouds do have silver ...or gold... linings.

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It's difficult to see this pandemic ending without significant effects on the economy, including tax increases and inflation. To make matters worse, medical researchers are learning that about one-fifth of the people who get the coronavirus and recover sustain heart damage.

Those people will have increased medical costs for decades (not to mention shorter life expectancies).

 

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