GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[BOOT]

On 4/9/2020 at 4:55 PM, porcupine48 said:

.He also tries to 'help uncle Jimmers' by opening 1970's Hot Wheel blister packs.Well,he did,once .Paternal instincts disappeared for a while.

That's pretty funny! They were meant to attract little hands. How did any of them survive?

Edited April 14, 2020 by BOOT

[BOOT]

Here is a little historical perspective on plagues...

From Gould and Pyle's Anomalies and Curiosities of Medicine:

 

[Cat-Man_America]

This thread contains no active Covid-19  virus that I’m aware, Mitch sprays daily so enjoy it at your pleasure.   

FTR, I do intend to invest in several comics this year, ...but that would be telling!  

[GermanFan]

1. Its a virus called fear. Very dangerous.

2. I dont understand that people think GA prices must crash now and if they dont they see it as a sign they wont. We havent seen anything yet. Its like a tsunami. First the water draws back. Wait and see.

3. This is not the plague. Far from it. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by GermanFan

[jimbo_7071]

38 minutes ago, GermanFan said:

1. Its a virus called fear. Very dangerous.

2. I dont understand that people think GA prices must crash now and if they dont they see it as a sign they wont. We havent seen anything yet. Its like a tsunami. First the water draws back. Wait and see.

3. This is not the plague. Far from it. 

I agree with you that people shouldn't be pointing to strong prices realized during the past three weeks as evidence that GA material won't cool off down the road.

-

Reality hasn't set in yet; people haven't run out of spending money yet. (A lucky few never will, to be sure.)

-

For one thing, everybody will be paying extra taxes in 2021 and beyond to cover all of the federal giveaways that are happening right now.

-

My guess is that GA will see a bottom sometime between mid 2021 and mid 2023.

Edited April 11, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[Mmehdy]

6 hours ago, GermanFan said:

1. Its a virus called fear. Very dangerous.

2. I dont understand that people think GA prices must crash now and if they dont they see it as a sign they wont. We havent seen anything yet. Its like a tsunami. First the water draws back. Wait and see.

3. This is not the plague. Far from it. 

Response to #1 IF you, your family member, or friends get the virus and  it is the real thing, Then it becomes reality not fear.

Response to #2  the GA/SA comic book market is the not stock market, I repeat it does not change by the day, the hour, or the change of price by the minute. These changes occur on a different time zone...and we will not feel the full effects of any Ga/SA price correction for some time. Just because you lose your job, does not mean you will immediately sell your  GA/SA comic book collection. Recovery time and debt accumulated during the depression will be the ultimate decider on a number of Ga/SA collectors as to sell part or all of their collection. This has to play out and right now we do not have a vaccine. Once we do, we have end date depending upon distribution. Major Ga/SA collectors are not yet in a position to say, it my house payment or part or all of my collection. That is why, I gave every Ga/SA collector sound advice early on too..take this time to access your collection and rank it. I would sooner rather than later sell my doubles and books which I have little attachment too asap, even if you want to keep collecting and buyingGa/SA thru this depression. You sell what you don't want now and BUY at the bottom of this market. This is not unique to comic books...it applies to stocks, bonds, and gold etc. We here on the boards will probably be able to call any bottom EARLY. We just have too much knowledge, experience, and community support not to be. So, be more efficient now more than any with your collection. We do know as a matter of fact our economy has been hit hard, for how long, it does not matter. If you sell at higher price level..you can buy back BETTER material at the same price or at least have the opportunity to. You can sell the unnecessary  and be aggressive and contact 20 or so dealers and make offers reminding them you are not out to insult them. All they could do is say no, and you can say, well if you change your mind let me know. Smart true GA/SA collectors see this is opportunity to trade up or to buy smart.

Response to #3..you do not know that, I don not know that, MD's who don't know if there are going to be worse 2/3 waves of this virus don't know, and even if you pay a fortune teller..she won't know.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Cat-Man_America]

43 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Response to #1 IF you, your family member, or friends get the virus and  it is the real thing, Then it becomes reality not fear.

Response to #2  the GA/SA comic book market is the not stock market, I repeat it does not change by the day, the hour, or the change of price by the minute. These changes occur on a different time zone...and we will not feel the full effects of any Ga/SA price correction for some time. Just because you lose your job, does not mean you will immediately sell your  GA/SA comic book collection. Recovery time and debt accumulated during the depression will be the ultimate decider on a number of Ga/SA collectors as to sell part or all of their collection. This has to play out and right now we do not have a vaccine. Once we do, we have end date depending upon distribution. Major Ga/SA collectors are not yet in a position to say, it my house payment or part or all of my collection. That is why, I gave every Ga/SA collector sound advice early on too..take this time to access your collection and rank it. I would sooner rather than later sell my doubles and books which I have little attachment too asap, even if you want to keep collecting and buyingGa/SA thru this depression. You sell what you don't want now and BUY at the bottom of this market. This is not unique to comic books...it applies to stocks, bonds, and gold etc. We here on the boards will probably be able to call any bottom EARLY. We just have too much knowledge, experience, and community support not to be. So, be more efficient now more than any with your collection. We do know as a matter of fact our economy has been hit hard, for how long, it does not matter. If you sell at higher price level..you can buy back BETTER material at the same price or at least have the opportunity to. You can sell the unnecessary  and be aggressive and contact 20 or so dealers and make offers reminding them you are not out to insult them. All they could do is say no, and you can say, well if you change your mind let me know. Smart true GA/SA collectors see this is opportunity to trade up or to buy smart.

Response to #3..you do not know that, I don not know that, MD's who don't know if there are going to be worse 2/3 waves of this virus don't know, and even if you pay a fortune teller..she won't know.

Pretty much agree with all three of Mitch’s responses above. Number 2 is an unknown quantity from my perspective, but somewhat predictable given the relative safety of auction markets from a social distancing standpoint.  Two things will likely change in the near term based on the fact that we don’t have satisfactory large scale testing methods in place nor viable treatments to ease the public concerns about risks of contact: 1) For the duration of this pandemic fear surrounding large gatherings will have a devastating impact on major conventions and those municipalities supporting them, and 2) this will have an impact on personal appearance celebrity signature events for the same reasons (see post linked below for those discussions).  

Comic publishing and LCS browsing will also be impacted and slow coming back, but creative workarounds, including alternatives for signings and curbside deliveries for customers will likely evolve in the interim as a temporary replacement.  This is only temporary, but there’s plenty of b-hurt for store owners to grapple with in maintaining store inventories, rent and staff amid shutdowns.  

Successful dealers with an on-line presence and deep inventory will probably do well in spite of convention cancellations and store closures.  On-line opportunities have only increased with such a large “captive” audience, and the reduced overhead makes on-line sales here, through auctions and eBay all the more attractive.

Looking forward, in some ways the Covid-19 crisis is more insidious than a plague because human health reactions to it vary so much.  The world moves at a much faster pace, but so does disease spread.  Mild cases may go totally unnoticed while severe cases can lead to a ventilator and the odds against survival.  Rolling the dice is fun in Vegas, not here.

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

That is why, I gave every Ga/SA collector sound advice early on too..take this time to access your collection and rank it. I would sooner rather than later sell my doubles and books which I have little attachment too asap, even if you want to keep collecting and buyingGa/SA thru this depression. You sell what you don't want now and BUY at the bottom of this market.

Hey Mitch;

Sounds as though you are still trying to convince yourself here to finally sell off your doubles and possibly even triples of Action 1's and Cap 1's after holding onto them for so many long decades.    

Yes, about right now would definitely be a good time for you to finally MANNUP and do it.    

[Mmehdy]

12 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I agree with you that people shouldn't be pointing to strong prices realized during the past three weeks as evidence that GA material won't cool off down the road.

-

Reality hasn't set in yet; people haven't run out of spending money yet. (A lucky few never will, to be sure.)

-

For one thing, everybody will be paying extra taxes in 2021 and beyond to cover all of the federal giveaways that are happening right now.

-

My guess is that GA will see a bottom sometime between mid 2021 and mid 2023.

Jimbo I think you raise an interesting issue : " my guess that GA will see bottom sometime mid 2021 and mid 2023.

That could be spot on, but I would say the bottom would be in late 2021 more likely than 22' or mid 23".  I do not see a bottom flash crash. which  would take  GA values down by as much as 70%. I don't  see that occurring.  I see decline like a slow line decreasing graphically downward for the next 18 months. We have yet to experience a waive of BK filings, especially hit will be the entertainment companies like AMC etc. This will take unemployment levels to a new high. Watch for the possible creation of something like the WPA or something similar which helped during the 10 year Great Depression. If we act fast, and by a miracle get a cure in the next 12 months, I think GA/SA price will bottom out once we are back as normal as one can be. All of us board members are gonna have to accept reality here...it is never going to be same exactly as is what in early 2020. It could be better or worse or combo..there is no going back...only forward. We will have hopefully learned to deal with a similar situation on a world wide basis and hopefully prevent such economic damage as well as personal loss and be bette prepared next time as one county, one people, one world.

 In order for your prediction of a 2022 or mid 2023 to come true, there would have to be another X factor come up during this crisis.  That X factor would compound  or prevent a timely recover  even after a vaccine cure is discovered and distributed. Every nation is up to debt up to its neck..we are slowly becoming the "greeks" of the world in terms of a real ability to pay off the debt we have incurred. The X factor could be one of many things...another virus attack, economic collapse of the EU since they will go first and probably have the most debt and are oil dependent, or maybe something here in the US..such as a pension collapse which at some point  is coming. Any other major issue coming at this time where we are weakest...would gang up and take us into 2022/2023 before any sign of recovery.

 Folks, anything goes...but we will be ready. I notice on a current  thread on GA..that a comic book shop owner was attempting to sell some books, at probably a good price to keep in business. If you can, contact your local dealer first..not Ebay, CC etc and try to help them out first so that they can recover and survive. 

 So, Jimbo you could be right here on that timeline, but I think it would take an additional major event to keep  up the decline out for that period of 2/3 years of 2022 or mid 2023.

 

[Mmehdy]

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Hey Mitch;

Sounds as though you are still trying to convince yourself here to finally sell off your doubles and possibly even triples of Action 1's and Cap 1's after holding onto them for so many long decades.    

Yes, about right now would definitely be a good time for you to finally MANNUP and do it.    

Lou, I am buying. I think you are too. There is in all of us...a GA/SA comic book minimum buying point. That is the point we determine that the purchase is too good to turn down price wise. Each collector will have his point..30%/50%/70% of current market value.

WE do not care at that point if it goes down a bit more because we are  both here for life. We in the easiest stages of a decline. You and I are both waiting for OUR buy point but we have quite a way to go.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Mmehdy

[fifties]

The only thing that's gonna decline are artificially inflated slabbed books, and then most likely those printed later than GA material.  Just my humble opinion.

[Mmehdy]

2 minutes ago, fifties said:

The only thing that's gonna decline are artificially inflated slabbed books, and then most likely those printed later than GA material.  Just my humble opinion.

I agree 100%, but I would put this way my additions " "         "The first thing" that's gonna decline are artificially inflated slabbed books, and then most likely those printed later than GA material "due to  its rarity".

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Hey Mitch;

Sounds as though you are still trying to convince yourself here to finally sell off your doubles and possibly even triples of Action 1's and Cap 1's after holding onto them for so many long decades.    

Yes, about right now would definitely be a good time for you to finally MANNUP and do it.    

Lou, I am buying. I think you are too.

So, instead of taking your own advice to sell now and buy back in at a lower price point, you are going to just hang onto those Action 1's and Cap 1's and take them with you to that big comic shop in the sky when they come calling for you.    

[jimbo_7071]

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

So, instead of taking your own advice to sell now and buy back in at a lower price point, you are going to just hang onto those Action 1's and Cap 1's and take them with you to that big comic shop in the sky when they come calling for you.    

I don't plan to sell my collection in my lifetime. My collection isn't on the same level as Mitch's, but I wouldn't sell it if were.  

-

Some deals are already starting to show up, so it's a good time to buy want-list items that are hard to find. For anything that isn't hard to find, it makes sense to wait. 

-

I take Mitch's advice to be directed at those who have always planned to sell some items eventually—better to sell now than a year from now. (It might have been best to sell a few months ago, but that ship has sailed.) It doesn't really apply to those of us who expect to die with our collections more or less intact. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[fifties]

I'd be real interested to see some of these so called "price declines".  Hasn't happened yet with either HA or eBay, AFA PCH G-VG books are concerned (and I kinda doubt that it will).

[Mmehdy]

Let me be clear about the 4 major pathways or options we have in conducting our comic book collecting during the 2020 and beyond economic crisis and specifically, GA/SA comic book collecting.  I would like to address the first two today:

Option #1

Do nothing, hold, do not buy sell or trade. You are 100% satisfied with your collection, have stopped buying for all intents and purposes prior to the virus and either based on the low  cost you paid or you have the resources economically you have to last for a few years without selling as a necessity to survive for yourself and family. This requires a lot staying power. For how long, my guess at least 12 months before we hit bottom and probably another 18 months to get back to where we came from. So, if you have 3 years staying power or 10 or 30 years..it should be a pretty sound business decision to hold if you chose that pathway.

Option #2

 Buy: Every smart GA/SA comic book collector should take the time( and we have a lot on our hands) to do a complete GA/SA comic book collection Evaluation. Where am I strongest, where am I weakest, and would purchases would take my collection to the "next level". There are number of "whale" collectors who do not do a lot of social media. They are bit older, and wiser sometimes (LOL), but make no mistake they are very very sharp. I talked to one of my "whale" friends and he said the "smart" collectors are working on one thing..there want list..it needs to be ready to go in the next couple of months. I will tell you his buying strategy and like the old commercial " When EF Hutton talks, people listen". Classic, anyway My buying will be a little bit different than his,, so here goes:

1-Once in a lifetime pieces-make a list, and give these priority over anything else, not tied to value, it could a $20 Ga book or $100K. Make the list and get ready to hit every dealer,E-bay, collector that you know and auction site for that material. Then take your second level want list and go after that.

2- Look everywhere, there are items that you might not even have seen, know about, or have not had the time to research it. Be ready for surprises.

3-Any graded book, not CGC, should be given an additional 10-30% decrease in offer depending on the grading company. Do not buy any ungraded GA/SA comic book over $100 and even then be prepared on that buy to take a substantial loss should you have to resell during this crisis period.This rule does to apply to ultra rare books that might have never been graded or a high Gerber rating. Anything goes for those.

4- Do not buy  any GA/ SA  comic book because he price is "right or a great deal. Instead,, buy what you need, what you like, and do not be greedy as like the stock market(he trades in that also) says "Bears and Bulls survive, Hogs get slaughtered"

5- Buy using the "Tier" method. Similar to stock buying, you can purchase some GA/SA at 20% off, then some at 30% etc...Tier your buying because you will never know the exact moment of the bottom until after it has hit and it is on the way up.

6-Collector to Collector is the best way to buy and cut the middleman out (Sorry CC/HA).

7-Use nonconventional approaches to buying comic books, not limited to people you know..advertise. If you have  limited funds and a collection comes your way and you do not have all the money then partner up with a collector you know and trust and make an agreement in writing and then buy jointly.Do this in advance of using nonconventional methods of buying.

8-Be prepared when buying GA/SA  bought early for them to temporary go down, and other things bought just  at the right time to appreciate at once. Be patient. 

9-Be happy with a good solid deal..it does not have to be the greatest deal of all time.

10-WHAT WOULD ADD TO THE LIST?...lets keep it going

 

 I think there is a lot solid and good advise in his opinion. Everybody, including myself, will do things a bit different. His approach to selling(3d option) and Trading (4th option) is going to be a very interesting topic on these boards, we will get to that next week.

Happy Easter to one and all.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Mmehdy

[ThothAmon]

On 4/9/2020 at 10:46 AM, Ryan. said:

I can't imagine having 5, 6 or even 7 figures sunk into a collection and having no regard for the value of that collection. 

Not sure I've hit seven figures yet but I have little regard for the current value.  Seems as though I have been buying and selling comics since the mid 1970's so I see it as the ultimate dollar cost averaging.  Sure its nice to see the dizzying heights once thought dreck is selling for but this collector looks forward to downturns so that aspirational books are shook loose from long held collections.  Don't expect too many bargains though.

[Cat-Man_America]

7 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Let me be clear about the 4 major pathways or options we have in conducting our comic book collecting during the 2020 and beyond economic crisis and specifically, GA/SA comic book collecting.  I would like to address the first two today:

Option #1

Do nothing, hold, do not buy sell or trade. You are 100% satisfied with your collection, have stopped buying for all intents and purposes prior to the virus and either based on the low  cost you paid or you have the resources economically you have to last for a few years without selling as a necessity to survive for yourself and family. This requires a lot staying power. For how long, my guess at least 12 months before we hit bottom and probably another 18 months to get back to where we came from. So, if you have 3 years staying power or 10 or 30 years..it should be a pretty sound business decision to hold if you chose that pathway.

Option #2

 Buy: Every smart GA/SA comic book collector should take the time( and we have a lot on our hands) to do a complete GA/SA comic book collection Evaluation. Where am I strongest, where am I weakest, and would purchases would take my collection to the "next level". There are number of "whale" collectors who do not do a lot of social media. They are bit older, and wiser sometimes (LOL), but make no mistake they are very very sharp. I talked to one of my "whale" friends and he said the "smart" collectors are working on one thing..there want list..it needs to be ready to go in the next couple of months. I will tell you his buying strategy and like the old commercial " When EF Hutton talks, people listen". Classic, anyway My buying will be a little bit different than his,, so here goes:

1-Once in a lifetime pieces-make a list, and give these priority over anything else, not tied to value, it could a $20 Ga book or $100K. Make the list and get ready to hit every dealer,E-bay, collector that you know and auction site for that material. Then take your second level want list and go after that.

2- Look everywhere, there are items that you might not even have seen, know about, or have not had the time to research it. Be ready for surprises.

3-Any graded book, not CGC, should be given an additional 10-30% decrease in offer depending on the grading company. Do not buy any ungraded GA/SA comic book over $100 and even then be prepared on that buy to take a substantial loss should you have to resell during this crisis period.This rule does to apply to ultra rare books that might have never been graded or a high Gerber rating. Anything goes for those.

4- Do not buy  any GA/ SA  comic book because he price is "right or a great deal. Instead,, buy what you need, what you like, and do not be greedy as like the stock market(he trades in that also) says "Bears and Bulls survive, Hogs get slaughtered"

5- Buy using the "Tier" method. Similar to stock buying, you can purchase some GA/SA at 20% off, then some at 30% etc...Tier your buying because you will never know the exact moment of the bottom until after it has hit and it is on the way up.

6-Collector to Collector is the best way to buy and cut the middleman out (Sorry CC/HA).

7-Use nonconventional approaches to buying comic books, not limited to people you know..advertise. If you have  limited funds and a collection comes your way and you do not have all the money then partner up with a collector you know and trust and make an agreement in writing and then buy jointly.Do this in advance of using nonconventional methods of buying.

8-Be prepared when buying GA/SA  bought early for them to temporary go down, and other things bought just  at the right time to appreciate at once. Be patient. 

9-Be happy with a good solid deal..it does not have to be the greatest deal of all time.

10-WHAT WOULD ADD TO THE LIST?...lets keep it going

 

 I think there is a lot solid and good advise in his opinion. Everybody, including myself, will do things a bit different. His approach to selling(3d option) and Trading (4th option) is going to be a very interesting topic on these boards, we will get to that next week.

Happy Easter to one and all.

 

 

 

 

 

OK, now there's a totally new mental image that I can't get outta my head...  

Good point Mitch, those who swim in deep water are a different breed of big fish! 

And every collector should evaluate competitive risk aware that the National Harpoon is nearby!  FIN

[waaaghboss]

On 4/11/2020 at 3:17 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

This thread contains no active Covid-19  virus that I’m aware, Mitch sprays daily so enjoy it at your pleasure.   

FTR, I do intend to invest in several comics this year, ...but that would be telling!  

I know the feeling.  Finally got a low grade copy of my grail last night so now I can say its name in public again lol.

[tabcom]

The comic book investor ‘me’ feels the froth.

The comic book collector ‘me‘ has a core of Generational Comics to pass onto Tabcom jrs.

I’ve been a net seller for about 15 months now.
Judging by my sales, and dealers FMV pricing, the market has not priced in what’s coming yet.

As for my sales proceeds, I feel it’s time to rotate to a different asset class that will out perform collectible comics this decade.