GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[lou_fine]

Interesting to note that during these tumultous economic times, a pair of game-worn Michael Jordon running shoes were still able to fetch a record $560K at auction or almost 4X the pre-auction high estimate.  Even more confounding is to take a look at the stock markets and see that they are still continuing to climb to somewhere within 10% of their pre-Coronavirus record highs and even much closer if you are looking at the Nasdaq.  Especially shocking and seemingly irrational in an economic business environment where most of the businesses are either still closed or nowhere even close to pre-Coronavirus operating mode.    

So, who's to say with all of this current irrational positivity in the collectibles and investing side of the economy, that we should really expect this huge pending crash to take place in the vintage GA/SA comic book marketplace?    

[fifties]

41 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 

So, who's to say with all of this current irrational positivity in the collectibles and investing side of the economy, that we should really expect this huge pending crash to take place in the vintage GA/SA comic book marketplace?    

I doubt that there will BE a crash, either in collectible comic books or anything else.  And further, once the population gets beyond lockdown status, I'm guessing that there will be a surge in commerce of all types.  While people while away their time at home right now, demand within them builds.

[lou_fine]

5 minutes ago, fifties said:

I doubt that there will BE a crash, either in collectible comic books or anything else.  And further, once the population gets beyond lockdown status, I'm guessing that there will be a surge in commerce of all types.  While people while away their time at home right now, demand within them builds.

Well, the one recent hot area that I do expect to see some kind of letdown would be in the more recent BA market in terms of the highly speculative, but relatively common movie related books.  

Especially with the postponement of all of these big super-hero franchise movies and the fact that most movie goers would probably not want to be sitting for a few hours in movie theatres any time soon.  

[Mmehdy]

8 hours ago, fifties said:

I doubt that there will BE a crash, either in collectible comic books or anything else.  And further, once the population gets beyond lockdown status, I'm guessing that there will be a surge in commerce of all types.  While people while away their time at home right now, demand within them builds.

The crash has already happened. The effects as a result take time to be fully absorbed into the economy. If. you think you have seen the last bankruptcy or business is going back to the way it was prior , think again. The toll of this has not hit us, we are still in the shock phase. The length of this downturn is going to be determined in part on either by a heard immunity or a vaccine. It is just gonna take time. Again its dominos and they take to to fall and fell the full force and effect of the blows. If you believe based on stock market price uptick that we are in the clear, unlike our GA/SA market, that gain can be gone in a flash. I wish to repeat one thing when it comes to equity markets like the stock and bond market, and I cannot take credit for my opinion, thank my hedge fund friend who is a heck of lot richer today than he was last year. The stock and bond market has not hit bottom, 18K was a false bottom. As the effect of the crash hit a bunch of different sectors at once, they will compound their effect and push this market down to the proper level of value given our prospects 12/18 months out from that date. My hedge fund friend is also concerned about inflation. He was surprised that it effects had hit so soon and that inflation rate has not taken into account this incredible government spending and printing binge. As he said, no free lunch..somebody is gonna have to pay for it down the road, and that means every tax payer in the US and the government will want to pay back in inflated dollars. You are a guessing a huge surge in commerce and I just hoping we get back to 50/75% of where we were in the beginning of the year. Yes people who get out will want to spend, I agree but only to a point and it will begin tightening as the economic reality sets in and compound economic issues hit our economy at the same time. We need to get more government money into the hands of small business like comic shop owners NOW, and the Federal Reserve chairman agrees, we need the government to create a work projects program NOW for the 20% of the workforce that will never get there job back and maybe we have a chance to make this a extreme recession rather than the increased length of a depression. That is a big if. Collectable prices will come down during a depression...everything will come down during a depression, nothing will be immune. That is why if you buy  good GA/SA at the right price and time, this will be a incredible score for you collection. If you pay attention to this thread, you will be way ahead of the curve as to when that time will be, and it's coming.

 I will say this, what you Fifites consider to be a crash and what I might consider to be a crash could be two different things. I don't see choice GA/SA unrestored CGC graded 5.0 or above going for 10 cents on the dollar. But it could, second waves hit, or another issue such as a major trade war occurs go down 50%, especially on GA/SA books exceeding $2500 current market value or above. But even if the overall market holds and says only goes down only 25%, there will still opportunity to purchase GA/SA from people that have to sell to survive or help other family members, just  think what dealers will pay during this crisis and I predict the longer we in it, the lower prices. E-Bay will be flooded. Yes CGC graded material might cost a bit more but that will pay dividends in the future where buyers will become more picky. When recovery does occur, watch for a grading rush of people who held back their books due to fiscal conservative spending. If you can afford it, grade your books NOW..not only for resale protection but help you determine what could be a significant upgrade of a book you now own.

Getting beyond lockdown status does not mean we are going to back to a NFL Sunday game or SDCC convention with 70K and up crowds. I hope it does sooner rather than later. Just be careful of any major purchases unless you build in the right discount for future risk. That is all I am suggesting on future purchases to assure a healthy exit should there be a necessity to make one prior to full recovery. I think we as a collective board need to move forward in a positive light based in reality and look at the future as a incredible buying opportunity to make true comic book collections better and members stronger and more informed.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Mmehdy]

GA/SA comic book market update 5-30-2020

As I discussed above, the recovery from cover-19 would be complicated by unforeseen negative events. The length and power of this virus's effect on our economy as well as our GA/SA comic book world would be felt much stronger over time should additional problems surface during fight and recovery. I am sure every board member is appalled at the law enforcement treatment of African Americans everywhere when an incident like this happens. Violence against persons or businesses which had nothing to do with improper law enforcement is just as bad as the root of this problem. LA is on shutdown again or lockdown for the  entire night in 9 minutes. We should pray and hope that no business and especially comic book stores fall victim to violence. It is gonna just make it even harder to survive or recover from this virus. There are billions of dollars worth or damage due to additional economic shutdowns as a result of this violence and lost jobs/businesses  as a result on top of the damage to the economy by the virus shutdown which will compound and lengthen our road to recovery and  stable GA/SA comic book prices.

 Where does that leave us GA/SA collectors. If you GA/SA comic book collection is not 100% secure, especially in violence prone areas, you had better take precautions to protect it and if you are a store owner, remove the most valuable items. We are just at the beginning of feeling the effects of this economic downturn, especially when unemployment benefits run out, and all stimulus checks are all cashed. This violence could be the tip of the iceberg.

 I would follow my buying and selling advice above, with one correction...SELL NOW in a New York minute . In buying during this period or violence and uncertainly I would be extra picky as we will need time, after these riots, to access the additional  overall economic  damage, job loss, and small business loss. So take that risk factor into account when making any current GA/SA comic book purchases and increase your expected hold time to recover a substantial amount of the money you just paid for your comic book.

I hope and pray every board member and family remains safe during these disturbing, tragic and  extremely difficult times.

 We need Superman and his values of  Truth,Justice and the American way greater than ever before for ALL Americans.

 

 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Mmehdy

[RBaumann02]

Let me just say that every time there is a financial crisis, more money flows to the those who already have money, because they:

Buy stocks at depressed prices

Use the occasion to lay off workers

Get bailed out by the government

I see nothing but good times for GA comic books, because like the art market, they are used as devices for wealthy people enjoy, to secure their wealth, diversify, and outpace the market.

I have seen some strong results in the past two weeks, had some original art of mine propositioned at twice its purchase price. Previous posters are right, scarcity will continue to push the GA higher.

 

[Mmehdy]

5 hours ago, RBaumann02 said:

Let me just say that every time there is a financial crisis, more money flows to the those who already have money, because they:

Buy stocks at depressed prices

Use the occasion to lay off workers

Get bailed out by the government

I see nothing but good times for GA comic books, because like the art market, they are used as devices for wealthy people enjoy, to secure their wealth, diversify, and outpace the market.

I have seen some strong results in the past two weeks, had some original art of mine propositioned at twice its purchase price. Previous posters are right, scarcity will continue to push the GA higher.

 

Thank you for your opinion on the future of GA/SA comic books rising due to rich people getting richer.

 I respectfully disagree. 

Nothing goes up forever, not tulips bulbs, stocks, government or corporate bonds. 

I agree that ultra rich make money on the stock market by pumping it up and buying it back at the bottom which they create. That does however not necessary directly relate to the over to increased  prices of the GA/SA comic book market.

I agree that corporate raiders have in the past bought companies  and broken them up and sold them piece by piece, with workers being laid off just for a profit however I do see any direct link to a bump or increase in GA/SA market prices just to diversify their portfolio.

I agree that the government has constantly bailed out companies, the last time the banks in 2008. However the government has bailed out the entire economy in the Great Depression from 1929-1939...and I do not see a direct correlation of bailing out those companies and the increased price of Superman#1.

 You can see nothing but good times for GA comic books but this time is unique in our history. There is a very strong possibly of continued social unrest and a second wave of virus infections slowing down our attempted economic recovery. Our economy can only take so much stress before we begin to see the cracks In the very foundation of the economic world of the USA and Europe. Those cracks will have an effect on everybody and every company one way or another including the collectables market.

I agree that results have been somewhat mixed but still  some very  strong but prices on  top GA/OA  on May 31,2020. Those prices  are not what I am concerned about. It is 6 months, 12 months and 18 months that we as true  long run comic book collectors need to be concerned about . We are still in the shock phase when we were hit with this curveball of social unrest.

 I do have to disagree with your assumption that the GA/SA comic book market is made up of only wealthy people  whom get richer and then will influence prices in the GA/SA market. On the contrary, I would say 80% of all collectors are in the middle, some being collectors for 20/30/40 years. I think every GA/SA comic book collector buys with care today because of the price upswing of the last 10 years or so. I agree that scarcity is the Key. I am on board 100% with that. Scarcity will prevent a total collapse of the GA/SA market but under future conditions the economic reality will at some point become a major price factor in our Ga/SA market and the ability of collectors to purchase comic books based upon prior pricing history.

 Comic Books have been with us through the good times and bad...In 1938 Action # 1 astounded a depressed economy with Superman..and gave super hope that anything could be over come with Truth Justice and the American way. In March 1941, Cap #1 smashed the Jaw of the greatest mass murderer in history, before Peal Harbor, before we were at war, despite general feeling we wanted no part of WW2. In 1953 EC comics attacked racism head on with the story Judgement DAY and then reprinted it in violation of the comics code in 1955 in a attempt to defeat censorship.In 1971 Green Lantern-Green Arrow attacks the drug problem head on...there many many instances of comic books making a difference in our society. 

 I do not believe, RBaumann02 that GA/SA comic books are for only the "wealthy people" to enjoy and price manipulate. No way that is our GA/SA comic book world. It is made up of true believers, artistic appreciation, and preservers for future generations to learn from. There is a lot of truth in our GA/SA comic book world, and you just have to look for it in the right place not in somebody's bigger bank account, but in the heart.

 

 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[RBaumann02]

In the short term, I agree with your assessment. Waves of pandemic combined with massive unemployment, some permanent, is real.

However, the working class does not collect high grade/ ultra-rare GA Keys or Semi-Keys. It is simply impossible at this point. 

SA is at risk, because you have hundreds of copies existing of books of marginal importance. It is not a good idea to ride that.

If you look at areas of the Golden Age where there only exist 10-15 known books of keys and semi-keys, I don't see a lot of risk.

Like Warren Buffett, I see a "margin of safety"  If people want to possess those books, they will get them. The sky can be the limit. 

[fifties]

I don't understand why some of you are posting about anything but GOLDEN AGE COMICS, because that's what the sign on the door here says.  Personally I could care less about anything printed after 1955, as it's irrelevant to GOLDEN AGE.

And Mitch, I think you and I look at the market differently.  I buy lower grade readers, generally in the Fa-Gd to VG range, while you apparently have an eye for slabbed books, which are naturally in better grades and go for much bigger bucks.

  IDK if these two levels of collecting will fluctuate in concert with each other or not, but frankly my money would be (is) on the less expensive fare as continuing it's gradual ascent in "value" (via inflated dollars), regardless of future social or economic situations.

[ThothAmon]

9 hours ago, RBaumann02 said:

However, the working class does not collect high grade/ ultra-rare GA Keys or Semi-Keys

Not sure exactly what price point your talking but I self identify as working class (as do countless others around here I'd dare say) and I collect them.  Fortunes can be made when there is blood in the streets.  I guess thats what makes a market.

[Mmehdy]

11 hours ago, fifties said:

I don't understand why some of you are posting about anything but GOLDEN AGE COMICS, because that's what the sign on the door here says.  Personally I could care less about anything printed after 1955, as it's irrelevant to GOLDEN AGE.

And Mitch, I think you and I look at the market differently.  I buy lower grade readers, generally in the Fa-Gd to VG range, while you apparently have an eye for slabbed books, which are naturally in better grades and go for much bigger bucks.

  IDK if these two levels of collecting will fluctuate in concert with each other or not, but frankly my money would be (is) on the less expensive fare as continuing it's gradual ascent in "value" (via inflated dollars), regardless of future social or economic situations.

The GA/SA market is interconnected especially in the years 1956-1961 and there is some real debate where the  silver age begins, I think it was FF1 and  and not Showcase#4. I say that because as a collector who bought FFA off the stands, in fact 1-6..amoung all the kids, we knew it was something different, something great. The other reason market price conditions is when AF 15 cracked the 1 million dollar price which was a real price barrier between the two. I think you would agree one of the greatest GA comics of all time was Mad #1 Oct 1952...simply even today 1-23 are incredible. So what makes you 1955 argument is the end of EC comic book publishing and conversion to Mad. I do think Mad 24-30 are exceptional and you should not draw the line in the sand just by calendar year but more by content. The rebirth of the timely heroes for a bit also adds steam to your argument as Captain America #76-78 were May- Thru Sept 1954 and  Sub Mariner 33-42 from April 1954-Oct 1955 as they were continuations of the GA comic book numbers. But there is interconnection between the markets and sharp downturn on one will spill over to another in some way.

 I agree that we might look at the size of the overall GA market differently. I am considering the entire GA comic book market, with the Blue Slabs leading the way. The reason is simple, they are the price leaders of our comic book world. Next on the line would be Conserved blue, Purple, and of course ungraded without and then with restoration.

 I think you are wise to buy lower grade readers in Fa-Vg condition as it will limit you potential loss, as well as the collectors who can afford those books will be in much greater numbers than some of the whale buyers or high condition buyers above 9.0.

 I find your comment interesting however by limiting GA comic book collecting to two different levels...I think there are many more levels in between the top and the bottom condition wise. If you asked me to predict where the softening of prices will begin it that will be easy. It will not be at the very bottom or at the very top..it will be in the middle, mid-grade or restored GA...especially books that are currently overpriced by Overstreet. Adventure Comics #60 at 6.0 or purple value wise are not gonna hold up once this recession/depression is in full force and effect. Where that leads, nobody knows are will are still in the dark about vaccines. civil unrest and trade wars. But these issues, especially when in combination with one anther have the potential to bring down all GA/SA prices and to what extent will be determined by length and deepness of this economic downturn.

 I just cannot agree that the lower priced lower conditioned books will increase in value, "regardless of future social or economic situations. The good news is if I am correct, by virtue of the lower price, you get the lower potential value decrease. I am a optimist in the long term for our GA/SA comic book world. If we hit bottom. say 18 months from now...I am predicting we will come back and hit prior price points 18 months later. 3 years and it's back to it slow upward trend of price stability, especially mid-grade GA books or restored GA comic books graded or ungraded. The ones hardest hit, if you can time the bottom will provide the greatest increase in value and stability once recovery is achieved.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[fifties]

The long accepted first Silver Age comic has always been Showcase 4 (which I myself bought at the news stand in the fall of '56, and didn't like it).

What is "FFA"?

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, fifties said:

The long accepted first Silver Age comic has always been Showcase 4 (which I myself bought at the news stand in the fall of '56, and didn't like it).

What is "FFA"?

Corrected ..Fantastic Four 1 and by the time issue 4 hit and 5 EVERYBODY was talking about it, it took 3 to 1 trade to get any early FF issues. I understand for good reason 1956 was a turning point, but not as great in my opinion as 1961/1962 that was the real beginning for me and a number of collectors.Sorry for the typo.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[KCOComics]

On 5/31/2020 at 5:26 PM, RBaumann02 said:

Let me just say that every time there is a financial crisis, more money flows to the those who already have money, because they:

Buy stocks at depressed prices

Use the occasion to lay off workers

Get bailed out by the government

I see nothing but good times for GA comic books, because like the art market, they are used as devices for wealthy people enjoy, to secure their wealth, diversify, and outpace the market.

 

I think that's a bit of a misconception.  Most investors who try to time the market fail.  While "buying the dip" with strong companies is good advice,  most successful investors build wealth by diversifying and staying in the market. 

As for comics, I would argue the vast majority of GA collectors are working class. Even guys dropping 5 figures on books are usually selling parts of their collection to fund new additions. I bought Hulk 1 this year by selling FF48, DD1 and a bunch of ASM. I hated to see them go, but I couldn't justify parting with that much cash otherwise. 

The guys dropping 6 and 7 figures on comics are the minority,  but they do exist. 

[fifties]

6 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Corrected ..Fantastic Four 1 and by the time issue 4 hit and 5 EVERYBODY was talking about it, it took 3 to 1 trade to get any early FF issues. I understand for good reason 1956 was a turning point, but not as great in my opinion as 1961/1962 that was the real beginning for me and a number of collectors.Sorry for the typo.

Got my first car in early 1961 (a '54 Ford Mainliner) and was into chasing the female persuasion, so interest in comics had waned for me.  It actually wasn't until I had been married a few years, that I got back into comics.  

[lou_fine]

19 minutes ago, fifties said:

Got my first car in early 1961 (a '54 Ford Mainliner) and was into chasing the female persuasion, so interest in comics had waned for me.  It actually wasn't until I had been married a few years, that I got back into comics.  

So, was returning to comics a few years later after marriage an indication that you then needed an escape or to run away from the female persuasion?   

Edited June 2, 2020 by lou_fine

[fifties]

34 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

So, was returning to comics a few years later after marriage an indication that you then needed an escape or to run away from the female persuasion?   

My raging hormones settled to a point, I could then concentrate back on childhood ambitions...

[telerites]

5 hours ago, fifties said:

My raging hormones...

Funny, I never felt that when I got married.   It took divorce 20 years later for me to realize that the hoary hosts of hoggoth were trying to tell me something 

Edited June 2, 2020 by telerites

[fifties]

Quote

Funny, I never felt that when I got married.   It took divorce 20 years later for me to realize that the hoary hosts of hoggoth were trying to tell me something 

My late wife of 45 years used to call me her little Octopus when we were dating...

[telerites]

6 minutes ago, fifties said:

My late wife of 45 years used to call me her little Octopus when we were dating...

So did my ex but she always swam away