GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[Mmehdy]

The fed just made a very bold move and cuts interest rates to 0...very aggressive and well needed..what do you think?

My friends from Italy say they are in lockdown thur Apr 4. That might give us an indication of some time period of a lockdown..

The quicker this ends, the less long term effect this will have on the GA market. If you forced to sell and say in a year to two want to buy back in you might get a whole lot less for you money you get today. That is a factor that needs to be considered. Probably the safest way to acquire GS/SA is TRADING using a common value. W

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Joshua33]

3 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

The fed just made a very bold move and cuts interest rates to 0...very aggressive and well needed..what do you think?

Well before the market panic, those of us whom are real estate investors have seen the writing on the wall since 2018. In December of that year, new mortgage starts had dropped to a scary low, because housing prices were becoming more inflationary than the value of a reduced interest rate. I would look toward a boom in new housing starts for the rest of the year, mostly from riskier lending institutions. They aren't just happy with your 401k. They are going to want to gobble up foreclosures next. It is no coincidence that BlackRock investment group, cannabalized and monopolized the rental market AFTER everybody foreclosed. They hold more rental doors than anyone on the planet, and now hold over 7 trillion in assets, and they'll be looking to add to that. If everywhere you turn, you have to rent from the same landlord, the landlord can charge whatever they want.

[Cat-Man_America]

7 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

The fed just made a very bold move and cuts interest rates to 0...very aggressive and well needed..what do you think?

My friends from Italy say they are in lockdown thur Apr 4. That might give us an indication of some time period of a lockdown..

Very mixed, ...and premature, IMO.  Moves like this leave little wiggle room for future sell-offs, and trust me, there’ll be more DOW down time before the market recorrects.  To paraphrase a famous line from All About Eve, ...fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

 

[lpsunburst]

Based on the 15 books I am watching on HA tonight, the comic market is broadly doing fine, every book on my watch list is at or above GPA. My money all went into stocks last week since the DJ top 30 were all on sale, I am into a 5 figure profit already and the market has still not even begun to recover...I should have some funds to buy some nice books when the dust settles.

[Mmehdy]

59 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

Very mixed, ...and premature, IMO.  Moves like this leave little wiggle room for future sell-offs, and trust me, there’ll be more DOW down time before the market recorrects.  To paraphrase a famous line from All About Eve, ...fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

 

its dammm if do and dammmm if you don't...however this rate is 0.0-0.25 so I assume the next move they can make it go to flat zero...again..the market on Dow futures has reacted negative...strange down over 1000 points currently at -1,041 or 4.53%...I don't think anybody can really call this market..why so negative a reaction?

[Joshua33]

20 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

its dammm if do and dammmm if you don't...however this rate is 0.0-0.25 so I assume the next move they can make it go to flat zero...again..the market on Dow futures has reacted negative...strange down over 1000 points currently at -1,041 or 4.53%...I don't think anybody can really call this market..why so negative a reaction?

Well. Quantitative easing to the tune of 700 billion in addition to the rate drop, plus lowering requirements of banks (0% liquidity holding) is designed to increase consumer confidence, but I think we've all seen this movie too many times. 

[batman_fan]

The only thing I know for sure is during uncertain times, the best thing you can do is make homemade biscuits with sausage gravy and top with green onions.

[jimbo_7071]

I was following the auction on HA tonight, hoping for some deals. No bargain-basement discounts yet. An apparent VG- raw copy of Mystery Men four went for close to three grand. I actually laughed out loud when I saw that. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[pemart1966]

19 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I was following the auction on HA tonight, hoping for some deals. No bargain-basement discounts yet. An apparent VG- raw copy of Mystery Men four went for close to three grand. I actually laughed out loud when I saw that. 

There will be people that sail through this crisis completely unscathed.  They're liquid enough to carry on business as usual...

[waaaghboss]

Just me, but my collecting is starting to take a pause.  As much as I love picking up old funny books, at this point I finally feel the market is heading in a direction where buying stocks doesn't feel like im buying into an over-inflated bubble.  I find myself saving more recently, and tossing what I can into my equities account to start picking up more and more stocks of companies I feel will bounce back in a profitable way.  There are a number of books I'm looking for that I'll still probably splurge on if they ever come up for sale, but buying books every week now feels a bit irresponsible for me when I could be using my money in a way that will grant me greater financial returns over time.  Plus, I have to realize and remind myself that I have more comic books sitting in boxes in my basement unread than 99% of the population has ever seen and read.  Time to start making a dent in that project

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

10 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

The fed just made a very bold move and cuts interest rates to 0...very aggressive and well needed..what do you think?

My friends from Italy say they are in lockdown thur Apr 4. That might give us an indication of some time period of a lockdown..

Very mixed, ...and premature, IMO.  Moves like this leave little wiggle room for future sell-offs, and trust me, there’ll be more DOW down time before the market recorrects.  To paraphrase a famous line from All About Eve, ...fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

 

 

Unfortunately for most of us here, I would tend to agree with Cat-Man's point of view, as I had posted in another thread on this subject:  

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Yes, it would seem that this pre-emptive in an attempt to calm the financial markets before they open tomorrow morning is actually having the exact opposite effect.  

Being viewed by the markets as a panic move by the Fed as stock futures have already hit their trigger limit on the pre-market trades.  

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, lpsunburst said:

My money all went into stocks last week since the DJ top 30 were all on sale, I am into a 5 figure profit already and the market has still not even begun to recover...

My thinking is that you probably went in a bit too early and that most of your 5-figure paper profit probably came in the last 30 minutes of the trading day on Friday during that irrational frenzy.  

You are correct when you say the recovery in the markets has not even begun, because I somehow get the strong sense that the markets have not finished falling yet.  Especially since the Fed has now shot off all of their weapons to no avail so far, and the entire North American continent is probably headed for a complete lockdown except for non-essential services before this thing gets any better.  Definitely hope this scenario does not come about, but it just might since they don't want to get themselves into a situation like Italy who are probably 1 to 2 weeks ahead of us.    

Edited March 16, 2020 by lou_fine

[Randall Dowling]

IMHO, the Fed rate cut was a terrible choice.  It signaled to markets that the Fed believes the foundations of the economy are incredibly weak which can create it's own reality.

[Mmehdy]

4 hours ago, Randall Dowling said:

IMHO, the Fed rate cut was a terrible choice.  It signaled to markets that the Fed believes the foundations of the economy are incredibly weak which can create it's own reality.

Market is down....today.. and it appears we are on the same path as Italy in terms of shutdowns...I wonder what effect this is going to have on future comic book auctions if workers cannot get to HA or CL or CC during the lockdown. Will that cause a "Log Jam" of auction material which would then glut the market once these auctions resume? what would be the game plan and the effect on GA/SA market prices?

Edited March 16, 2020 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

51 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Will that cause a "Log Jam" of auction material which would then glut the market once these auctions resume? what would be the game plan and the effect on GA/SA market prices?

Or will it be the exact opposite situation with potential consignors pulling their books back out from the pipeline in fear of falling prices, which would then result in a shortage in the auction marketplace?    

[sfcityduck]

I really don't view the collectors that tend to post on these boards and sell in the auctions as speculator/investors.  Sure they like to make money on comics, but they then tend to reinvest in other comics.  They are collectors.

However, if you really are in it for the money, the smart move now would appear to be to sell comics to increase liquidity to buy stocks.   

Edited March 16, 2020 by sfcityduck

[Cat-Man_America]

18 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

I really don't view the collectors that tend to post on these boards and sell in the auctions as speculator/investors.  Sure they like to make money on comics, but they then tend to reinvest in other comics.  They are collectors.

However, if you really are in it for the money, the smart move now would appear to be to sell comics to increase liquidity to buy stocks.   

Agree with your first paragraph completely.  The second statement about reinvestment in stocks is also true for those savvy in risk management and opportunity, but given the fact that we’re no where near the end of this crisis stock investors would be well advised to adopt a wait and see approach.  Right now consumer confidence in most aspects of business is unsettled.   

Before the current crisis of confidence ends the DOW could lose 20 to 30% of it’s current value, conservatively, dependent on how serious the COVID-19 epidemic becomes and the overall response to it.  I’m just basing this on prior history of market corrections in periods of economic crisis and recessions in general. At this point in time the actual costs (human and financial), are unpredictable.

If I were advising the various auction services, I’d recommend eBay offer periodic 10% big ticket sale discounts across the board.  They’ve done this on rare occasion in the past.  Heritage Auctions should consider reverting back to a quarterly event auction schedule and perhaps temporarily drop Buyers Premiums to around 18% to encourage more aggressive bidding.  States could wave sales taxes for six months to encourage consumer spending. Just a few thoughts on ways that the recessionary butt-hurt could be eased for collectors.

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

Agree with your first paragraph completely.  The second statement about reinvestment in stocks is also true for those savvy in risk management and opportunity, but given the fact that we’re no where near the end of this crisis stock investors would be well advised to adopt a wait and see approach.  Right now consumer confidence in most aspects of business is unsettled.   

Before the current crisis of confidence ends the DOW could lose 20 to 30% of it’s current value, conservatively, dependent on how serious the COVID-19 epidemic becomes and the overall response to it.  I’m just basing this on prior history of market corrections in periods of economic crisis and recessions in general. At this point in time the actual costs (human and financial), are unpredictable.

If I were advising the various auction services, I’d recommend eBay offer periodic 10% big ticket sale discounts across the board.  They’ve done this on rare occasion in the past.  Heritage Auctions should consider reverting back to a quarterly event auction schedule and perhaps temporarily drop Buyers Premiums to around 18% to encourage more aggressive bidding.  States could wave sales taxes for six months to encourage consumer spending. Just a few thoughts on ways that the recessionary butt-hurt could be eased for collectors.

2d worst day in 124 year history...SF area locks down 7 million...I just don't know if I would keep my auction consigments active . You were right cat the market has another 20/30 play it went down today 12.9%. Again, you only lose if sell.

[KCOComics]

4 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Again, you only lose if sell.

Bingo...  

I'm 37, which means I was only 25 during the recession and didn't have a real lot of skin in the game outside of my 401k. 

The last few weeks have hurt,  but you only lock in the losses by selling during the dips.  Patients and time in the market is the goal. My hope is to put some cash in the market in the next few weeks and hopefully buy near the bottom. Then play the long game for a return. 

And maybe put a little cash aside incase the GA market does drop. 

 

[Sauce Dog]

I only now finally took a look at my mutual funds....and the massive kick to the pants it took. 10k drop in a month, and all my brain could do was think of all the epic comics I could have bought with that   Damn it would have been sweet.

While I'm sure some GA will drop, most collectors have been through this before and know to hold the major stuff as long as possible, so I'm not personally expecting to be buying any major comics anytime soon (other than what I've already bid on clink) and rather just putting some money into my stock trading account so it's ready to spend if any of the stuff I'm tracking looks good to get into now.