GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[KCOComics]

4 hours ago, batman_fan said:

I am definitely excited about this one.  I think it is the crown jewel of my collection.

And that's how I've always approached this hobby. It's a hobby. And if you have a chance to get something that brings you that much joy, do it. 

I picked up an incredible hulk 1 in February. Most I've spent on a comic ever. Maybe the most I ever will. I could be kicking myself for buying 10 days before the markets went into a free fall, but I'm not kicking myself at all. I've wanted it my entire life. I saved and waited for the right opportunity. 

And for what it's worth I'm also putting some cash back into the markets. It might be turbulent for a few months and even years, but it will come back. Its about being patient. 

[Mmehdy]

California on lockdown-40 million including me. Based upon what I have learned thru sources it will be min 60 days to 120 days. All comic book shops are gonna be closed. I know a lot you board members don't go, but I do once in while. Will they back in  business again-who knows how many are gonna fold.

 Where does that leave us- we are being proactive here in CALI, however if projections from the governor are accurate then 25 million people are gonna get sick-AT HE SAME TIME.     

Several board members or other senior GA collectors could leave us. We need a miracle. I saw panic on the streets tonight with grocery stores parking lots filled. Aggressive drivers too. If your state is behind us...this is coming. 

 Here is some advice on protecting you GA collection-get a safe now before your state shuts down too.

I had the advantage 30  years ago to be one the first collectors who used bank safe deposit boxes. If you have one, use it NOW or if not get one.

If you have items coming up for auction I would seriously consider withdrawing them or face the potential for pennies on the dollar if you can to hang on through this extremely difficult time.

We are about to enter the eye of the storm, we are gonna win, we might take some hits, but we are gonna WIN..and we GA collectors will come out stronger, smarter, and together.

        

Edited March 20, 2020 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

On 3/19/2020 at 4:39 AM, GermanFan said:

All in all I am positive for the west (especially for the USA. You have the best geostrategy). This crisis is like a catharsis. Many mistakes that have been made in the last decades will be corrected. Jobs and production that have been lost to China and other countries will be brought back.

With what's happening right now, I am not sure how you can be so sure about this.  

Especially since China is apparently back to 90% of having everything running again, with their outbreak contained down to very manageable levels within a 6-weeks time period.

If anything, it looks like their China 2025 Program which they thought might have been pushed back by several years, might just be moved up to China 2021 or China 2022 if America doesn't make the same kind of speedy recovery.  

[jimbo_7071]

43 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

With what's happening right now, I am not sure how you can be so sure about this.  

Especially since China is apparently back to 90% of having everything running again, with their outbreak contained down to very manageable levels within a 6-weeks time period.

If anything, it looks like their China 2025 Program which they thought might have been pushed back by several years, might just be moved up to China 2021 or China 2022 if America doesn't make the same kind of speedy recovery.  

Some (non-labor-intensive) products will come back. I was working in the auto industry in the early 2000s, when many products were being moved to Asia. Ford hired  a consulting firm called Booz Allen to study the impact of moving components overseas. Booz Allen concluded that moving components to Asia was more expensive than regional sourcing due to potential supply chain interruptions, quality issues, etc. However, it was determined that those risks could be placed on the supply base because the suppliers never considered those variables when providing quotes. Therefore, Ford moved many parts overseas in order to get lower prices from the supply base. (Needless to say, many of the suppliers went belly up when they were hit with those hidden costs.) Suppliers aren't as naive as they were fifteen or twenty years ago, so the bargains are no longer there for big companies to take advantage of. Now that the suppliers are on to them, companies will gradually move to regional sourcing (which is already happening). I can't swear that that's true outside of the auto industry, but it stands to reason that it is. 

Edited March 20, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[szav]

40 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

With what's happening right now, I am not sure how you can be so sure about this.  

Especially since China is apparently back to 90% of having everything running again, with their outbreak contained down to very manageable levels within a 6-weeks time period.

If anything, it looks like their China 2025 Program which they thought might have been pushed back by several years, might just be moved up to China 2021 or China 2022 if America doesn't make the same kind of speedy recovery.  

Well I’m hoping this was a wake up call that despite being cheaper to make such things As antibiotics and antivirals  in China (thanks To self imposed overregulation) we can collectively decide it’s not in our national interest to allow this and bring manufacturing of strategic products back home.

We ought to take the some members of the Chinese communist party at their word that they’ll withdraw our access  and let us drown in a sea of coronavirus.

[Yorick]

In California, health care insurance is mandatory.  Is anyone filing claims for lost income right now?  Shouldn't that burden be on the insurance companies as this is a declared pandemic?

[Mmehdy]

48 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

With what's happening right now, I am not sure how you can be so sure about this.  

Especially since China is apparently back to 90% of having everything running again, with their outbreak contained down to very manageable levels within a 6-weeks time period.

If anything, it looks like their China 2025 Program which they thought might have been pushed back by several years, might just be moved up to China 2021 or China 2022 if America doesn't make the same kind of speedy recovery.  

It is in China's best interest to have a weak America in a long term business strategy `and China thinks long term. This 90% statistic I do not trust it, I do not trust anything that China says especially since they claimed that we brought the Virus to them via US Military. They are competitors and want to be #1. But Lou, they underestimate one thing-the american people just as the japan did on December 7, 1941...We are gonna beat this thing and come out super strong.. I talked to my real estate friend and indicated that they estimate a minimum of 35% sales decline for 2020 year as well as a decline in prices in the market. If that is ported over to GA/SA we should see a 1/3 sales decline despite lower prices. This decline is gonna occur gradual not in a crash mode I believe.

[fifties]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

 

Especially since China is apparently back to 90% of having everything running again, with their outbreak contained down to very manageable levels within a 6-weeks time period.

 

Right, and we can believe everything that comes out of their "news" propaganda.  

[comicjack]

9 minutes ago, fifties said:

Right, and we can believe everything that comes out of their "news" propaganda.  

I can't believe anything that comes from them 

[Mmehdy]

I know a number of you might feel there is a direct correlation between the 32% recent decrease of value in the stock market value and the price of GA comics.. We are tortoise and they are the hare. The good news is that if this recovery comes back fast, we might not seen a such a immediate direct decrease in value any where near that level. Ok, the Stock Market is probably gonna go down 50% at the height of this crisis. It was greater in 2008 at 56% plus. Even if it does,there is a tenancy to come back very quickly and in that time gap..maybe GA goes down only 25%. If most of us can afford to hold out...that would be just great as less material and sales=less impact on GPA. and the overall GA/SA market. I think we need to pull together here and not let panic dictate our actions,

 If one of our GA board members needs to sell a large portion of his collection, try to do it privately and it appears there are a lot board members still in the hunt. If you are a buyer...I think waiting is gonna pay until we see where we are going adn how long it is goona take to recover and get back to where we were. Let's take a book for example like Cap#3...this is a "hot" book...there is a lot interesting price options...It is one I would put on my "radar" if you  are a buyer. How much over guide in the middle or this crisis....that is the question...it is gonna very interesting to see if quality material like keeps being in such  high demand to command multiple times guide price. . It also a tough decision in an auction situation. I would set price and not go over it, and do not forget buyers fees, sales tax and shipping if you cannot pick it up. 

[Casablanca]

So what did i miss?..Been in self quarantine/distancing...everybody good?

[Gotham Kid]

8 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

I do not trust anything that China says

produces, etc ...

[Mmehdy]

 The number one issue that GA board members think about is the timeline or when will this pandemic be over. We know once there is an end in sight that things will get better for GA collectors and the GA/SA comic book market. I have both good and bad news depending upon your expectations as to when things will get back to normal and the only thing to really worry about is whether you are gonna get outbid on Ha. or CC by some crazy fool on your grail or a book you have been looking for over 10 years....ahhhh those were the good old days.

 

 I would like to tell you my best guess based upon several friends who work on the frontlines on the defenses of this illness for the federal government in security, research, and front line combat  nationwide as well as private in the technical research area here in San Diego.

These sources are not the media who might a stake either political or for good ratings...The media  are all about the ratings now and have always been.

There is no exact answer, only a highly educated prediction.

 

1- "When we hit the peak of this pandemic"

 ANSWER- Different locations will hit the peak inflection at different times.  Major congested cities such a NY will be first.

 

2- Do you have any idea on a timeline when the peak will hit.. and we will turn the corner....best guess

ANSWER-  Contingent upon 1- heard immunity( still in issue whether you can get this bug more than once, especially if it mutates),2- tight containment(total US Lockdown a minimum of 21 days-NOT 14), 3-NO civil unrest( most important which would negate containment and increase spread), and 4-a stable state and federal government financially

 May 15,2020 

 So as long we don't panic, obey the law, the Feds  have enough money and you cannot get this thing again the above date is real good timeline .

 

3- What do you estimate to be the return time when we can go out and about like we used to be.

 

ANSWER-this will happen in stages not all at once depending upon the area in which you live.

June 1-15 2020 Lockdowns will be modified not eliminated.

June 15-30 resumption of a majority of activity depending upon the 4 factors above.  

 

4-Will this virus come back stronger during the winter if it shuts down in the summer?

 Answer: Mixed responses, some depending upon how many of us get this virus and are immune after getting it, others wait and see. No real good answer here.

 

So the possible peak of the GA/SA price decline could be May 15,2020 and even thru June 15-30. After that date normal market conditions can begin too reappear. The jist  of this is it is NOT GOING TO BE THE END OF THE WORLD, THE END OF GA/SA COMIC BOOK COLLECTING.  Make GA/SA buying decisions based upon reason and research.  Once a year has passed this crisis we are gonna say we were scared but it was not as bad.as it was made out to be Yes, this timeline is  contingent upon those 4  major factors above, but at least we might be able to see beyond the fog now.

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Mmehdy

[batman_fan]

I will get my first data point with the current CLINK auction.  I placed tracking bids on all but three items so lets see if any of those hold up to the final hammer.

Also, three GA I placed tracking bids on have been topped but are still incredibly low so they will be interesting to watch as well.

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

Interesting comments Mitch. I suspect they don't want to broadcast any dates that far out as it would really freak out people. The one thing not in your notes and I heard discussed last night is how many Americans who live paycheck to paycheck (some say as high as 60% of population) will lose or have already lost their jobs. They will need to tap likely over tapped credit cards to keep things going. I think this has the potential to throw the markets into more of a free fall as well as create social upheaval. They seem to be addressing some of this now with no evictions or foreclosures allowed but the social aspect of a long term shutdown will likely start to play shortly.

[jimbo_7071]

5 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

 The number one issue that GA board members think about is the timeline or when will this pandemic be over. We know once there is an end in sight that things will get better for GA collectors and the GA/SA comic book market. I have both good and bad news depending upon your expectations as to when things will get back to normal and the only thing to really worry about is whether you are gonna get outbid on Ha. or CC by some crazy fool on your grail or a book you have been looking for over 10 years....ahhhh those were the good old days.

 

 I would like to tell you my best guess based upon several friends who work on the frontlines on the defenses of this illness for the federal government in security, research, and front line combat  nationwide as well as private in the technical research area here in San Diego.

These sources are not the media who might a stake either political or for good ratings...The media  are all about the ratings now and have always been.

There is no exact answer, only a highly educated prediction.

 

1- "When we hit the peak of this pandemic"

 ANSWER- Different locations will hit the peak inflection at different times.  Major congested cities such a NY will be first.

 

2- Do you have any idea on a timeline when the peak will hit.. and we will turn the corner....best guess

ANSWER-  Contingent upon 1- heard immunity( still in issue whether you can get this bug more than once, especially if it mutates),2- tight containment(total US Lockdown a minimum of 21 days-NOT 14), 3-NO civil unrest( most important which would negate containment and increase spread), and 4-a stable state and federal government financially

 May 15,2020 

 So as long we don't panic, obey the law, the Feds  have enough money and you cannot get this thing again the above date is real good timeline .

 

3- What do you estimate to be the return time when we can go out and about like we used to be.

 

ANSWER-this will happen in stages not all at once depending upon the area in which you live.

June 1-15 2020 Lockdowns will be modified not eliminated.

June 15-30 resumption of a majority of activity depending upon the 4 factors above.  

 

4-Will this virus come back stronger during the winter if it shuts down in the summer?

 Answer: Mixed responses, some depending upon how many of us get this virus and are immune after getting it, others wait and see. No real good answer here.

 

So the possible peak of the GA/SA price decline could be May 15,2020 and even thru June 15-30. After that date normal market conditions can begin too reappear. The jist  of this is it is NOT GOING TO BE THE END OF THE WORLD, THE END OF GA/SA COMIC BOOK COLLECTING.  Make GA/SA buying decisions based upon reason and research.  Once a year has passed this crisis we are gonna say we were scared but it was not as bad.as it was made out to be Yes, this timeline is  contingent upon those 4  major factors above, but at least we might be able to see beyond the fog now.

 

 

 

There is a trend right now where teenagers are filming themselves deliberately coughing on produce in grocery stores and posting the videos online. Young people are not taking this seriously enough to slow the containment.

-

Overall, though, your timeline looks pretty good.

-

It's been about three months since the virus attracted attention in China, and they're well past the peak but not quite through the crisis. We'll probably be where they are now by the summer solstice.

-

The effect on the economy could last much longer than the pandemic, however. How many small businesses will fail? How many people will wait until next year to buy that new car? How many parents will pull their kids out of sports and other extracurricular activities and keep them at home for the next two years? How many people will forgo flying somewhere for vacation this summer? Etc., etc.

Edited March 21, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[Cat-Man_America]

4 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

 The number one issue that GA board members think about is the timeline or when will this pandemic be over. We know once there is an end in sight that things will get better for GA collectors and the GA/SA comic book market. I have both good and bad news depending upon your expectations as to when things will get back to normal and the only thing to really worry about is whether you are gonna get outbid on Ha. or CC by some crazy fool on your grail or a book you have been looking for over 10 years....ahhhh those were the good old days.

 

 I would like to tell you my best guess based upon several friends who work on the frontlines on the defenses of this illness for the federal government in security, research, and front line combat  nationwide as well as private in the technical research area here in San Diego.

These sources are not the media who might a stake either political or for good ratings...The media  are all about the ratings now and have always been.

There is no exact answer, only a highly educated prediction.

 

1- "When we hit the peak of this pandemic"

 ANSWER- Different locations will hit the peak inflection at different times.  Major congested cities such a NY will be first.

 

2- Do you have any idea on a timeline when the peak will hit.. and we will turn the corner....best guess

ANSWER-  Contingent upon 1- heard immunity( still in issue whether you can get this bug more than once, especially if it mutates),2- tight containment(total US Lockdown a minimum of 21 days-NOT 14), 3-NO civil unrest( most important which would negate containment and increase spread), and 4-a stable state and federal government financially

 May 15,2020 

 So as long we don't panic, obey the law, the Feds  have enough money and you cannot get this thing again the above date is real good timeline .

 

3- What do you estimate to be the return time when we can go out and about like we used to be.

 

ANSWER-this will happen in stages not all at once depending upon the area in which you live.

June 1-15 2020 Lockdowns will be modified not eliminated.

June 15-30 resumption of a majority of activity depending upon the 4 factors above.  

 

4-Will this virus come back stronger during the winter if it shuts down in the summer?

 Answer: Mixed responses, some depending upon how many of us get this virus and are immune after getting it, others wait and see. No real good answer here.

 

So the possible peak of the GA/SA price decline could be May 15,2020 and even thru June 15-30. After that date normal market conditions can begin too reappear. The jist  of this is it is NOT GOING TO BE THE END OF THE WORLD, THE END OF GA/SA COMIC BOOK COLLECTING.  Make GA/SA buying decisions based upon reason and research.  Once a year has passed this crisis we are gonna say we were scared but it was not as bad.as it was made out to be Yes, this timeline is  contingent upon those 4  major factors above, but at least we might be able to see beyond the fog now.

 

 

 

I’m not going to make any hard and fast predictions, but I think this may be with us a very long time and won’t fully resolve until an FDA approved vaccination with high protection level goes on the market.  While it’s true that the mainstream media consider ratings a high priority ...as do all forms of televised fare vying for audience share... there is no reason to doubt the information provided through the media directly from medical experts with no agenda nor axe to grind. 

This virus is in many ways a worst case for anything getting back to normal soon.  The reasons are quite obvious and simple for folks to wrap their heads around.  Older folks are most vulnerable due to weaker resistance to pulmonary related health issues (i.e., upper respiratory diseases like pneumonia) and because this virus spreads easily, like traditional seasonal colds, but with a much higher mortality rate than most flu, Covid-19 is a much more acute risk to our traditional socio-economic culture in the near term.

The medical community has sounded an alarm due to the lack of immediate preparedness for a pandemic of this magnitude (magnitude in this sense are high numbers of patients overwhelming the system at one time rather than spread out over months).  The herd mentality only works if real immunity can be achieved through exposure without the breakdown of social order and support systems, ...not in the event of a zombie apocalypse.  Survival of the fittest only applies when society fails.  

As for the comic community, collectibles are much less prone to destabilization than stock markets.  The DOW is tethered to social order.  Markets don’t respond well to chaos and rising costs to business generally.  By the same token I’d say that businesses which rely heavily on the collecting community would be wise to make it more enticing for collectors to participate during these chaotic times by cutting fees and offering service enhancements.  This includes comic publishers, major conventions (after recovery), LCS, encapsulation services and auctions, ...all should reflect global concerns through actions that ease the burdens of their patrons.

Edited March 21, 2020 by Cat-Man_America
Clarification.

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

39 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

I’m not going to make any hard and fast predictions, but I think this may be with us a very long time and won’t fully resolve until an FDA approved vaccination with high protection level goes on the market.  While it’s true that the mainstream media consider ratings a high priority ...as do all forms of televised fare vying for audience share... there is no reason to doubt the information provided through the media directly from medical experts with no agenda nor axe to grind. 

This virus is in many ways a worst case for anything getting back to normal soon.  The reasons are quite obvious and simple for folks to wrap their heads around.  Older folks are most vulnerable due to weaker resistance to pulmonary related health issues (i.e., upper respiratory diseases like pneumonia) and because this virus spreads easily, like traditional seasonal colds, but with a much higher mortality rate than most flu, Covid-19 is a much more acute risk to our traditional socio-economic culture in the near term.

The medical community has sounded an alarm due to the lack of immediate preparedness for a pandemic of this magnitude (magnitude in this sense are high numbers of patients overwhelming the system at one time rather than spread out over months).  The herd mentality only works if real immunity can be achieved through exposure without the breakdown of social order and support systems, ...not in the event of a zombie apocalypse.  Survival of the fittest only applies when society fails.  

As for the comic community, collectibles are much less prone to destabilization than stock markets.  The DOW is tethered to social order.  Markets don’t respond well to chaos and rising costs to business generally.  By the same token I’d say that businesses which rely heavily on the collecting community would be wise to make it more enticing for collectors to participate during these chaotic times by cutting fees and offering service enhancements.  This includes comic publishers, major conventions, LCS, encapsulation services and auctions, ...all should reflect global concerns through actions that ease the burdens of their patrons.

No way I would go to a convention until there is a vaccine. I'm entering higher risk territory so need to be safe.

Edited March 21, 2020 by 50YrsCollctngCmcs

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, Cat-Man_America said:

I’m not going to make any hard and fast predictions, but I think this may be with us a very long time and won’t fully resolve until an FDA approved vaccination with high protection level goes on the market.  While it’s true that the mainstream media consider ratings a high priority ...as do all forms of televised fare vying for audience share... there is no reason to doubt the information provided through the media directly from medical experts with no agenda nor axe to grind. 

This virus is in many ways a worst case for anything getting back to normal soon.  The reasons are quite obvious and simple for folks to wrap their heads around.  Older folks are most vulnerable due to weaker resistance to pulmonary related health issues (i.e., upper respiratory diseases like pneumonia) and because this virus spreads easily, like traditional seasonal colds, but with a much higher mortality rate than most flu, Covid-19 is a much more acute risk to our traditional socio-economic culture in the near term.

The medical community has sounded an alarm due to the lack of immediate preparedness for a pandemic of this magnitude (magnitude in this sense are high numbers of patients overwhelming the system at one time rather than spread out over months).  The herd mentality only works if real immunity can be achieved through exposure without the breakdown of social order and support systems, ...not in the event of a zombie apocalypse.  Survival of the fittest only applies when society fails.  

As for the comic community, collectibles are much less prone to destabilization than stock markets.  The DOW is tethered to social order.  Markets don’t respond well to chaos and rising costs to business generally.  By the same token I’d say that businesses which rely heavily on the collecting community would be wise to make it more enticing for collectors to participate during these chaotic times by cutting fees and offering service enhancements.  This includes comic publishers, major conventions, LCS, encapsulation services and auctions, ...all should reflect global concerns through actions that ease the burdens of their patrons.

Outstanding reply Cat. I will second the motion for HA especially followed by CC/CL to REDUCE BUYER FEES OR FEES CHARGED TO SELLERS to avoid a possible unfavorable outcome at auction. They still need to make money, I am in support but they hopefully can do a fair adjustment through this crisis period. It just makes good GA community sense.

I  tend to agree with you that the effects of this pandemic will be with us a very long time, however the worst will be over sooner rather than later. Let us not forget after being hunkered down, how many people want get out, get a shake and burger and enjoy the ocean or parks. Next to China's BS, however cat, you can watch MSNBC or Fox and get two different stories. Each has its own Agenda. they choose WHAT medical people to put on to spin whatever they want, I can remember some this guys calling President Trump a germ-fob etc...and now he is not doing enough...just showbiz..thats it. I would say BBC would probably be the middle of the road out there, but its politics as usual with some of the big media companies. I just want fair and honest reporting and let the PEOPLE decide who is the next president. 

I do disagree on the long term effects which the stock market will have on our GA market. Possible "good deals" will be made on those going back up the ladder. That mean getting cash, and that could many collections or partial collections hitting the market at the same time..especially SA material. Comic Book Conventions are gonna take a bit hit.

I know a number of our comic book movies are being  postponed, but how about comic book shops and getting those new  books out, we could see a glut of new material coming on the market when people have spend a lot money just getting thru this crisis. I would say to every GA member try to purchase some new material or hardcover GA reprints during this crisis. One that I recently purchased is Marvel Masters of Suspense Vol 2 which is Steve Ditko as his very science fiction best.. just released ..great read, great reproduction and 10/10.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Cat-Man_America]

51 minutes ago, 50YrsCollctngCmcs said:

No way I would go to a convention until there is a vaccine. I'm entering higher risk territory so need to be safe.

We’re in total agreement here.  What I’m saying is that those involved in promoting the hobby have a vested interest in getting older folks back after this crisis is resolved.  The at-risk community is as valuable to the overall health of the hobby as younger fans who are the lifeblood and future of collecting.  

For instance, major conventions could help get things back on track by prioritizing and reducing admission fees for older collectors and helping dealers hard hit from reduced business during the crisis by cutting booth fees.  Just a thought (I doubt that I’ll get too much argument from dealers on this board).