GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

2 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

We’re in total agreement here.  What I’m saying is that those involved in promoting the hobby have a vested interest in getting older folks back after this crisis is resolved.  The at-risk community is as valuable to the overall health of the hobby as younger fans who are the lifeblood and future of collecting.  

For instance, major conventions could help get things back on track by prioritizing and reducing admission fees for older collectors and helping dealers hard hit from reduced business during the crisis by cutting booth fees.  Just a thought (I doubt that I’ll get too much argument from dealers on this board).

I guarantee you SDCC will up the fees and fill the comic dealer slots with more movie or cosplay schlock dealers!! Can't stop progress; those musty old comics smell anyway!! LOL

[waaaghboss]

On 3/19/2020 at 8:53 PM, Mmehdy said:

California on lockdown-40 million including me. Based upon what I have learned thru sources it will be min 60 days to 120 days. All comic book shops are gonna be closed. I know a lot you board members don't go, but I do once in while. Will they back in  business again-who knows how many are gonna fold.

 Where does that leave us- we are being proactive here in CALI, however if projections from the governor are accurate then 25 million people are gonna get sick-AT HE SAME TIME.     

Several board members or other senior GA collectors could leave us. We need a miracle. I saw panic on the streets tonight with grocery stores parking lots filled. Aggressive drivers too. If your state is behind us...this is coming. 

 Here is some advice on protecting you GA collection-get a safe now before your state shuts down too.

I had the advantage 30  years ago to be one the first collectors who used bank safe deposit boxes. If you have one, use it NOW or if not get one.

If you have items coming up for auction I would seriously consider withdrawing them or face the potential for pennies on the dollar if you can to hang on through this extremely difficult time.

We are about to enter the eye of the storm, we are gonna win, we might take some hits, but we are gonna WIN..and we GA collectors will come out stronger, smarter, and together.

        

Washington here.  I wish our state acted faster to lock things down, but no.  Resturants are take out and schools shut down, otherwise everywhere I go hordes of people are out mobbing about licking door knobs and sneezing in my direction (I'd stay home but supposedly my job is critical). 

Some clown down the street from me decided to have a garage sale, and my tiny town has its first confirmed case 2 days ago.  If we locked down the i90 corridor we could have kept those snobby seattleites from coming over the mountains with their germs 🤢

[Mmehdy]

7 minutes ago, waaaghboss said:

Washington here.  I wish our state acted faster to lock things down, but no.  Resturants are take out and schools shut down, otherwise everywhere I go hordes of people are out mobbing about licking door knobs and sneezing in my direction (I'd stay home but supposedly my job is critical). 

Some clown down the street from me decided to have a garage sale, and my tiny town has its first confirmed case 2 days ago.  If we locked down the i90 corridor we could have kept those snobby seattleites from coming over the mountains with their germs 🤢

That is because that "clown" has no GA/SA great stuff to read......be safe and use caution.

[jimbo_7071]

10 hours ago, 50YrsCollctngCmcs said:

I guarantee you SDCC will up the fees and fill the comic dealer slots with more movie or cosplay schlock dealers!! Can't stop progress; those musty old comics smell anyway!! LOL

I just got a survey in the mail from Heritage. If I fill it out, I might win a trip to Comic Con. I wonder what the response rate will be for that survey.

[tabcom]

On 3/19/2020 at 11:53 PM, Mmehdy said:

 Here is some advice on protecting you GA collection-get a safe now before your state shuts down too

 

On 3/19/2020 at 11:53 PM, Mmehdy said:

. . . one the first collectors who used bank safe deposit boxes. If you have one, use it NOW or if not get one.

As one who thinks the scales are tilted in favor of hysteria over evidence, 

If there is a bank run leading to a bank holiday, your deposit box has been confiscated. Fun fact, legally your deposit in their bank is their money.

Edited March 22, 2020 by tabcom

[tabcom]

 

With two months of data being studied, there is a growing divide between evidence and hysteria. I present this article without any further editorial comment. 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

 

 

To summarize the lengthy article with dozens of hyperlink source materal . . . 

 

1. viruses accelerate and quickly decline.
2.  contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1–5% chance of catching it as well.
3. If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%
4. "Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread."
5. “This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.”

6. A World Health Organization report on China concluded that cases of Covid-19 in children were “relatively rare and mild.” Among cases in people under age 19, only 2.5% developed severe disease while 0.2% developed critical disease. Among nearly 6,300 Covid-19 cases reported by the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention on March 8, there were no reported deaths in anyone under 30. Only 0.7% of infections were in children under 9 and 4.6% of cases were in those ages 10 to 19 years old

7. “Every coronavirus patient in China infected on average 2.2 people a day — spelling exponential growth that can only lead to disaster. But then it started dropping, and the number of new daily infections is now close to zero.”
8. The majority of cases see symptoms within a few days, not two weeks as originally believed.
9. On true asymptomatic spread, the data is still unclear but increasingly unlikely. Two studies point to a low infection rate from pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. 
10. Another way of looking at virality and asymptotic spread is the number of flight attendants, airport staff, or pilots that have tested positive for COVID-19. Out of the thousands of flights since November 2019, only a handful of airport and airline staff have tested positive
11. Global data shows that ~95% of people who are tested aren’t positive.
12. Looking at the whole funnel from top to bottom, ~1% of everyone who is tested for COVID-19 with the US will have a severe case that will require a hospital visit or long-term admission.
13. Globally, 80–85% of all cases are mild. These will not require a hospital visit and home-based treatment/ no treatment is effective.
14. “Reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.”
15.  According to a study of the fatalities of COVID-19 cases in Italy, 99% of all deaths had an underlying pathology. Only 0.8% had no underlying condition.

[pemart1966]

"The number one issue that GA board members think about is the timeline or when will this pandemic be over."  Mitch M

This will be interesting to watch.  Who will give the all clear and based on what evidence?  The (relatively) easy part was putting on all the restrictions; cancellations; closures; postponements etc the really tough part will be taking them off.  

In this scenario, I imagine it will be all or nothing.  The last thing anyone wants to see is an easing or removal of restrictions only to see an uptake in infections.

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by pemart1966

[Mmehdy]

3 hours ago, tabcom said:

 

As one who thinks the scales are tilted in favor of hysteria over evidence, 

If there is a bank run leading to a bank holiday, your deposit box has been confiscated. Fun fact, legally your deposit in their bank is their money.

I would like to respond to both of your informative posts.

1-Not having access  to you bank safety deposit box temporary during a possibly unsafe and unhealthy period of time is a small price to pay for maximum safety. After this virus is over, the bank vault will still be there. The contents of your safety deposit box is not the banks property, if fact you might not have any money in there at all in that deposit box . If you have a bank account which they do control that is subject to federal regulations on recovery of the amount by FDIC within certain limits. The bank does not have you safety key either. This is not a deposit but a storage in the bank and not subject to confiscation or federal deposit insurance limits. During this uncertain period, I would continue to recommend both home safes as well as bank safety deposit boxes for GA collection protection.

2- Your scientific statistical response fails to consider the X-Factor. In this the X factor is REALITY. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin ( who by the way is doing a great job) indicated on Fox News Sunday that we are "looking at a 10-12 week scenario" of lockdown into early June. This estimate date is very close to the dates I posted on page 7 of this thread. Good or bad, real or phony we are gonna be locked down and the economy is gonna be shut down.

3-You state in item #14 "reasonable estimates....from .005 to 1%...In 2018 the population was 327.2 million people. 1% is 3.2 million deaths and half of that is 1.6 that is a lot people lost based upon numbers.

4-There is an emotional toll on everyone, not just the individuals who get the virus, the family members who have to pray, the friends etc. This is very real also and not reflected in cold statistics which will impact full recovery as well the GA/SA comic book market.

5- I  and every board member thank you for putting some statistical reality in this crisis. However, those numbers do not take into account nor can be relied upon if  a mutation or change of this virus occurs, the potential of social unrest which would create a increase of spread and increased emotional distress caused by economic depression,.

 We have a HUMAN toll caused this virus, not reflected in statistics and that is our X factor.

WE can overcome this virus  by acting together as a community to help one and another. Those friends of yours or family who were living paycheck to paycheck and are now out of work need your help. Take them in, feed them or give them aid. Fellow GA/SA collectors who know somebody who is Alone, Old, and Sacred..be there for them as a voice of support, you can shop for them, or contribute or donate  which we did, to the food bank of unnecessary and unwanted food, clothes, and other supplies NOW. That was our first home project and I cannot tell you how good it felt to drop it off and feel you are helping in our fight. The government will even give you a tax deduction on a charitable contribution for those of you who are fiscally conservative for me it is a non-issue. It is the little things that count. When you are at the store..look at the older folks there...I did and notice one thing...they are scared whether this crisis  real or unreal or overblown. I am doing not talking and I expect you to the do the same. I was at costco yesterday and it was a madhouse and people seemed on edge.I was walking my basket to my SUV when a older lady was using the costco scooter with a basket for handicapped people. Her sliding suv door was open and she struggling to put items in.  why nobody was helping her was beyond me, I looked around and everybody was in there own world..looking at the phone or looking stressed. I offered to help her and she had some heavy things like water etc. She seems very grateful as I unloaded her basket into her car. When I left, I told everything is going to be ok. I cannot tell the look of relief and thank in her eyes. Get out of your own world and do something to make this a better world that should be all of our goals today and everyday.

 Do not forget, we as GA/SA collectors believe 100% in Truth, Justice and the American way. Now let's do it

 

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Mmehdy

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

3 hours ago, tabcom said:

 

With two months of data being studied, there is a growing divide between evidence and hysteria. I present this article without any further editorial comment. 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

 

 

To summarize the lengthy article with dozens of hyperlink source materal . . . 

 

1. viruses accelerate and quickly decline.
2.  contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1–5% chance of catching it as well.
3. If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%
4. "Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread."
5. “This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.”

6. A World Health Organization report on China concluded that cases of Covid-19 in children were “relatively rare and mild.” Among cases in people under age 19, only 2.5% developed severe disease while 0.2% developed critical disease. Among nearly 6,300 Covid-19 cases reported by the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention on March 8, there were no reported deaths in anyone under 30. Only 0.7% of infections were in children under 9 and 4.6% of cases were in those ages 10 to 19 years old

7. “Every coronavirus patient in China infected on average 2.2 people a day — spelling exponential growth that can only lead to disaster. But then it started dropping, and the number of new daily infections is now close to zero.”
8. The majority of cases see symptoms within a few days, not two weeks as originally believed.
9. On true asymptomatic spread, the data is still unclear but increasingly unlikely. Two studies point to a low infection rate from pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. 
10. Another way of looking at virality and asymptotic spread is the number of flight attendants, airport staff, or pilots that have tested positive for COVID-19. Out of the thousands of flights since November 2019, only a handful of airport and airline staff have tested positive
11. Global data shows that ~95% of people who are tested aren’t positive.
12. Looking at the whole funnel from top to bottom, ~1% of everyone who is tested for COVID-19 with the US will have a severe case that will require a hospital visit or long-term admission.
13. Globally, 80–85% of all cases are mild. These will not require a hospital visit and home-based treatment/ no treatment is effective.
14. “Reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.”
15.  According to a study of the fatalities of COVID-19 cases in Italy, 99% of all deaths had an underlying pathology. Only 0.8% had no underlying condition.

I won't comment on any of the above as I don't have the time to review the base article. However I would like to post this great American Experience video on the Spanish Flu that is worth watching as there are many parallels to what is happening now. One of the interesting things is how it suddenly burned out when it ran through fuel (susceptible people.) Some of the points above seem to be corroborated in what is documented.

 

American Experience - 1918 Flu

[Cat-Man_America]

5 hours ago, tabcom said:

 

With two months of data being studied, there is a growing divide between evidence and hysteria. I present this article without any further editorial comment. 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

 

 

To summarize the lengthy article with dozens of hyperlink source materal . . . 

 

1. viruses accelerate and quickly decline.
2.  contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1–5% chance of catching it as well.
3. If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%
4. "Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread."
5. “This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.”

6. A World Health Organization report on China concluded that cases of Covid-19 in children were “relatively rare and mild.” Among cases in people under age 19, only 2.5% developed severe disease while 0.2% developed critical disease. Among nearly 6,300 Covid-19 cases reported by the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention on March 8, there were no reported deaths in anyone under 30. Only 0.7% of infections were in children under 9 and 4.6% of cases were in those ages 10 to 19 years old

7. “Every coronavirus patient in China infected on average 2.2 people a day — spelling exponential growth that can only lead to disaster. But then it started dropping, and the number of new daily infections is now close to zero.”
8. The majority of cases see symptoms within a few days, not two weeks as originally believed.
9. On true asymptomatic spread, the data is still unclear but increasingly unlikely. Two studies point to a low infection rate from pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. 
10. Another way of looking at virality and asymptotic spread is the number of flight attendants, airport staff, or pilots that have tested positive for COVID-19. Out of the thousands of flights since November 2019, only a handful of airport and airline staff have tested positive
11. Global data shows that ~95% of people who are tested aren’t positive.
12. Looking at the whole funnel from top to bottom, ~1% of everyone who is tested for COVID-19 with the US will have a severe case that will require a hospital visit or long-term admission.
13. Globally, 80–85% of all cases are mild. These will not require a hospital visit and home-based treatment/ no treatment is effective.
14. “Reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.”
15.  According to a study of the fatalities of COVID-19 cases in Italy, 99% of all deaths had an underlying pathology. Only 0.8% had no underlying condition.

That lengthy article has been contested for accuracy by the referenced site, so it has credibility issues.  Here's the most recent posting at the top of the linked website (without any further editorial comment)...

"Update (3/22/2020): After falling under much scrutiny, Medium has deleted Ginn's post. Of note, Ginn is a former 2012 Romney digital campaign staffer with no background in medicine or infectious disease.

We are leaving it up for anyone who wants to read, while also including a thread from a biologist who has refuted it."

 

[tabcom]

3 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

3-You state in item #14 "reasonable estimates....from .005 to 1%...In 2018 the population was 327.2 million people. 1% is 3.2 million deaths and half of that is 1.6 that is a lot people lost based upon numbers.

1% death rate of those infected. Not 1%of general population.

[jimbo_7071]

3 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

That lengthy article has been contested for accuracy by the referenced site, so it has credibility issues.  Here's the most recent posting at the top of the linked website (without any further editorial comment)...

"Update (3/22/2020): After falling under much scrutiny, Medium has deleted Ginn's post. Of note, Ginn is a former 2012 Romney digital campaign staffer with no background in medicine or infectious disease.

We are leaving it up for anyone who wants to read, while also including a thread from a biologist who has refuted it."

 

I continue to look at the stats. The stats are alarming, unfortunately.

This screenshot was taken a few minutes ago from

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[tabcom]

4 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

That lengthy article has been contested for accuracy by the referenced site, so it has credibility issues.  Here's the most recent posting at the top of the linked website (without any further editorial comment)...

"Update (3/22/2020): After falling under much scrutiny, Medium has deleted Ginn's post. Of note, Ginn is a former 2012 Romney digital campaign staffer with no background in medicine or infectious disease.

We are leaving it up for anyone who wants to read, while also including a thread from a biologist who has refuted it."

 

 

Carl Bergstrom doesn't really offer a rebuttal. It is more a stream of consciousness outline of undeveloped thoughts. 

[tabcom]

2 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

continue to look at the stats. The stats are alarming, unfortunately

222,000 / 7,700,000,000

[jimbo_7071]

9 minutes ago, tabcom said:

222,000 / 7,700,000,000

No, not out of 7.7 billion yet because only a small fraction of the population has been exposed thus far. I'm more alarmed by the 97,574 recovered versus 14,597 dead.

[Cat-Man_America]

4 minutes ago, tabcom said:

 

Carl Bergstrom doesn't really offer a rebuttal. It is more a stream of consciousness outline of undeveloped thoughts. 

No one should rely on a single assessment or website for medical information, especially if there's any political perspective involved in the providing the information.  

Informed opinions are derived from multiple respected sources in the medical community familiar with the epidemiology of viruses like Covid-19. 

14 minutes ago, tabcom said:

222,000 / 7,700,000,000

Pandemic levels can increase dramatically. Also, in some case viruses can subside and come back, like the Spanish Flu in 1919-20.  This is based on historical record, not subjective opinion.

It isn't the number of infected we know about that's the problem ...mild cases may never be reported.  The concern is the number of recorded cases that are serious enough to overwhelm hospitals if the numbers increase too quickly.     

[atomised]

Gold should be higher than $1500 an ounce in my opinion.  It was selling at those levels before this pandemic started.  I think a lot of people need access to cash and are selling precious metals and other assets as a result.  People might sell comic books or graded Pokemon cards or sealed WATA games or whatever to raise cash at this time, I don't know.  

I'm buying less books right now and being a bit more deliberate in what I pick up.  There's some stuff on the SA key side that I quite like that I may take the opportunity to pickup as prices seems to be around -10% gpa.

gl out there

 

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

15 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

No one should rely on a single assessment or website for medical information, especially if there's any political perspective involved in the providing the information.  

Informed opinions are derived from multiple respected sources in the medical community familiar with the epidemiology of viruses like Covid-19. 

Pandemic levels can increase dramatically. Also, in some case viruses can subside and come back, like the Spanish Flu in 1919-20.  This is based on historical record, not subjective opinion.

It isn't the number of infected we know about that's the problem ...mild cases may never be reported.  The concern is the number of recorded cases that are serious enough to overwhelm hospitals if the numbers increase too quickly.     

No matter the real numbers which will develop over time the best strategy on a personal level is to limit your contact as much as possible. In the documentary I posted the people of Philadelphia decided to hold a massive parade in the midst of the pandemic which led to the worse outbreak in the U.S. with an unbelievable number of deaths. It's also likely that many who are infected and don't know it are dramatically increasing our herd immunity while we stay away. The real stats won't be known for a long time. I'm grateful to live in a state (California) that took some early proactive steps to reduce exposure. Sure its inconvenient but the alternative is much worse.

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

Oh also, it should be said. I wish all boardies a safe and healthy outcome from this!

[tabcom]

1 hour ago, Cat-Man_America said:

The concern is the number of recorded cases that are serious enough to overwhelm hospitals if the numbers increase too quickly.     

"As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States . . . Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized"

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w

Evidently the government placed our bets on shoring up the hospital system at the risk of societal collapse.