GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[tabcom]

57 minutes ago, atomised said:

Gold should be higher than $1500 an ounce in my opinion.  It was selling at those levels before this pandemic started. 

 

Paper vs. Physical 

[Mmehdy]

23 minutes ago, tabcom said:

Paper vs. Physical 

Good point...if all values crash I would rather have a GA/SA physical comic book than a stock certificate. Same with Gold Coins, and Original art. That is their advantage the same as real estate is a physical asset. We will bounce back...form how far down is the issue. Will those GA collectors who have to liquidate come roaring back into the GA/SA field. Some of the unknowns. Elsewhere on the board it appears HA.COM has been swamped with lots and cash advances such that they had to increase their line of credit with Wells Fargo. I think they believe in the long term also. You have to figure that they will advance generally 50% of the estimated value of an item. If they are still cash advancing on GA/SA Original Art  thenthey must have calculated that the market will not go down more 50%. Agree?

Edited March 22, 2020 by Mmehdy

[szav]

2 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

That lengthy article has been contested for accuracy by the referenced site, so it has credibility issues.  Here's the most recent posting at the top of the linked website (without any further editorial comment)...

"Update (3/22/2020): After falling under much scrutiny, Medium has deleted Ginn's post. Of note, Ginn is a former 2012 Romney digital campaign staffer with no background in medicine or infectious disease.

We are leaving it up for anyone who wants to read, while also including a thread from a biologist who has refuted it."

 

 

2 hours ago, tabcom said:

 

Carl Bergstrom doesn't really offer a rebuttal. It is more a stream of consciousness outline of undeveloped thoughts. 

Have to say after reading the article and the comments from the person who refuted it... the article itself was very well reasoned and scientific with hard data backing up the claims.  The comments refuting it, while not 100 percent without merit, were not as reasoned or convincing.

Edited March 22, 2020 by szav

[lou_fine]

On 3/19/2020 at 6:48 AM, skybolt said:

On 3/19/2020 at 6:41 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

It depends on what you collect. I have many GA books that would be hard to replace in the same grade, so I'm not about to sell them. If I were a SA Marvel collector, I would cash out right now, buy into the stock market—which will recover more quickly than collectibles markets—cash out of that in three-to-six months, and then re-build my collection at a discount.

From a financial perspective that certainly makes sense.

 

On 3/19/2020 at 9:40 AM, Mmehdy said:

I agree 100% that SA marvels which are in greater supply should be sold First, then GA if necessary. You have a much greater chance either to get them cheaper once this virus has cleared the planet as well as more being available that is going on the market.In Fact, if you can...trade up and sell SA into GA especially when every collector finally realizes that we are in a GA/SA market correction you have a opportunity to potentially trading up.. A minor point would be that possible the GA collector might be a greater age than the SA collector and be more financially stable and less likely to dump his or her collection and lived thru more crisis . The GA collector also might have a overall longer time as a collector..with a greater emotional commitment to our hobby as well as being in our great hobby much longer. I like SA books don't get wrong..FF5, ASM1 etc.., however it is possible also that more speculators have purchased SA tied to all the recent marvel  hit movies that have come out...which would mean more fast dumping once the widget goes down in value and more speculation which has increased the possibility of bubble value in the SA market.

Mitch;

In full agreement with your astute assessment of the difference between the GA and the more recent SA and BA comic book marketplace going forward.  

I certainly don't see breakeven being reached anytime soon for speculators who paid record setting prices for highest (or near highest) graded copies of otherwise relatively common movie hype related books like FF52 at $90K, Tomb of Dracula 10 at $85K, Hulk 181 at $59K, Marvel Super-Heroes 13 at $31K+, Iron Man 30 at $15K, Eternals 13 at $4,100, etc.  To tell you the honest truth though, the buyers of these books at these kinds of   prices would most likely have lost money on the books anyways even without this Coronavirus, unless they were already thinking of holding them in their personal collection for several years right from the get go and even then.   

Now, if you are a long-term GA collector who had paid something like only $1K or $2K or thereabouts way back in the day for relatively nice copies of what are now deem to be semi-key or classic cover GA books such as Action 13, 'Tec 31, All-American 61, All-Select 1, Cap 3, etc. my thinking is that these collectors will do just fine if they simply hold onto their books for a few more years until the world recovers and the prices on these books get back to their old record valuations again.        

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I continue to look at the stats. The stats are alarming, unfortunately.

Although I am quite sure that the stats are being heavily affected by the additional testing now being done by countries that did no testing before (hmm....like the U.S.A. ), the trajectory certainly  does not look good to this point in time.  

Especially since it took something like slightly more than 3 months to get to 100,000 cases throughout the world with most of them in China, only 12 days after that to reach the 2nd 100,000 cases globally with most of them in Europe, and now apparently only a further 3 days to hit the 3rd 100,000 cases globally with most of them once again in Europe and now the United States sadly trying to crash this pandemic party in a big way to show the world who the true global leader really is .   

Edited March 22, 2020 by lou_fine

[Cat-Man_America]

32 minutes ago, tabcom said:

"As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States . . . Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized"

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w

Evidently the government placed our bets on shoring up the hospital system at the risk of societal collapse.

CDC reported data indicated 15,219 cases as of March 21 with over 200 deaths and they include a caveat that individual state provided numbers may differ and be more up to date. Current media reported U.S. numbers are 32,000 plus cases and over 400 deaths based on state figures.  Hospital system is not shored up to where it needs to be according to state Governors and medical professionals.

[Cat-Man_America]

47 minutes ago, szav said:

 

Have to say after reading the article and the comments from the person who refuted it... the article itself was very well reasoned and scientific with hard data backing up the claims.  The comments refuting it, while not 100 percent without merit, were not as reasoned or convincing.

I wouldn’t take either source literally.  Articles from non-medical sources hold less credibility from my perspective.  In respect to how the pandemic should be addressed now, from my perspective it’s better to be proactive and safe than having regrets later on,  I have too many friends and loved ones that I’m concerned about, the economic repercussions be damned.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Cat-Man_America

[szav]

14 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

now the United States sadly trying to crash this pandemic party in a big way to show the world who the global leader really is

Not sure we'll ever know who the real leader on this one is... I mean, do you really trust that the Chinese government has gone in and counted up the corpses from the apartment buildings where they welded the doors shut?  And  if/when they do, are the going to check the box for 'starvation' instead of 'coronavirus'?  

I don't doubt that our panic driven divisive media is salivating at the prospect of the number of infected for the USA surpassing that of China on: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ so that they can report that the sky is indeed falling.

 

[szav]

8 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

I wouldn’t take either source literally.  Articles from non-medical sources hold less credibility from my perspective.  In respect to how the pandemic should be addressed now, from my perspective it’s better to be proactive and safe than having regrets later on, 

I don't entirely disagree, we definitely need to act and the threat is real, and I take some comfort in the actions of recent days...I'll add though that in my opinion and experience there are many many medical sources, even peer reviewed ones, that lack credibility.  And being a medical professional does not make one immune from bias, and it does not by rule impart wisdom or a good understanding of probability and statistics.  In this particular case the medical professional came across as more biased and agenda driven, that's all.

 

16 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

the economic repercussions be damned.

Not so sure here, the long term economic and political repercussions of this crisis have the potential to cause a greater collective loss of life than the virus itself does if we act rashly or overreact.  Not sure I'd say we've overreacted yet, but well have to see how many more states close up shop entirely and how this plays out over the next few weeks/months.

 

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

 

Mitch;

In full agreement with your astute assessment of the difference between the GA and the more recent SA and BA comic book marketplace going forward.  

I certainly don't see breakeven being reached anytime soon for speculators who paid record setting prices for highest (or near highest) graded copies of otherwise relatively common movie hype related books like FF52 at $90K, Tomb of Dracula 10 at $85K, Hulk 181 at $59K, Marvel Super-Heroes 13 at $31K+, Iron Man 30 at $15K, Eternals 13 at $4,100, etc.  To tell you the honest truth though, the buyers of these books at these kinds of   prices would most likely have lost money on the books anyways even without this Coronavirus, unless they were already thinking of holding them in their personal collection for several years right from the get go and even then.   

Now, if you are a long-term GA collector who had paid something like only $1K or $2K or thereabouts way back in the day for relatively nice copies of what are now deem to be semi-key or classic cover GA books such as Action 13, 'Tec 31, All-American 61, All-Select 1, Cap 3, etc. my thinking is that these collectors will do just fine if they simply hold onto their books for a few more years until the world recovers and the prices on these books get back to their old record valuations again.        

I cannot get my head around FF 52 for 90K...or MSH #13 at 31K,, it just seems like madness or greed or a mimi bubble on those  common marvel books. I agree AF 15/FF1 etc I can see that...not books like the Groot TTA. They would of come down no matter what when the marvel movie machine sputters.I agree with you on the more that you have paid or in to the GA/SA comic book realitive to the current market value would make you more likely to sell during this crisis. I have always warned even about GA which go for 10X guide etc..too many of them. I agree with second the theory that the less you pay, the more likely you will not sell as you have little to lose.

 We here  on the boards are way ahead of the pack..given that I would very careful to pay any multiple of guides prices for anything unless you have to have the book, or it comes up once every 5/10 years until we have hit bottom on the GA downward ladder.

I would still like to hear from anybody on Ha's still giving cash advances of GA/SA material if you consign with them, as well as the apparent rush by sellers to use that client service.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Mmehdy

[tabcom]

Presented without political comment.

 

[Tri-Color Brian]

The great sell off is here...Action #10 thru #50 are going for $10 each on ebay.  Rumor has it that ComicConnect is going to have a $1 golden age sale any day now.  We live in exciting times... 

[Mmehdy]

19 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

The great sell off is here...Action #10 thru #50 are going for $10 each on ebay.  Rumor has it that ComicConnect is going to have a $1 golden age sale any day now.  We live in exciting times... 

I think top quality CGC graded unrestored GA  with good page and staple quality will be the last element to feel the market contraction. Action 10-50 at $10 buck could not be obtained even in the very early 60's. I do not see a 99% decrease in value. I do see a very possible 50% decrease in value of unrestored low grade GA, restored GA and any GA with poor page quality, tape or rusty staples taking that type of hit. Still, everything is gonna take hit..some little and some great. Should you buy GA at a giveaway price...I don't think price should be the sole factor, but for exit strategy which at some point all of GA collectors will have to consider, price point could be a significant factor as when you exit. Bargain prices sometime backfire. I would buy the book not the price. Of course condition and rarity must play a factor in any buying decision.  

Edited March 23, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Tri-Color Brian]

1 minute ago, Mmehdy said:

I think top quality CGC graded unrestored GA  with good page and staple quality will be the last element to feel the market contraction. Action 10-50 at $10 buck could not be obtained even in the very early 60's. I do not see a 99% decrease in value. I do see a very possible 50% decrease in value of unrestored low grade GA, restored GA and any GA with poor page quality, tape or rusty staples taking that type of hit. Still, everything is gonna take hit..some little and some great. Should you buy GA at a giveaway price...I don't think price should be the sole factor, but for exit strategy which at some point all of GA collectors will have to consider, price point could be everything. Bargain prices sometime backfire. I would buy the book not the price. Of course condition and rarity must play a factor.

Of course, and my statement was just a joke.  I do not see a large-scale panic sell off in this hobby.  We have been thru downturns in the economy before that did not affect our hobby.  The only thing that seems to affect us is supply and demand...

[Mmehdy]

13 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

Of course, and my statement was just a joke.  I do not see a large-scale panic sell off in this hobby.  We have been thru downturns in the economy before that did not affect our hobby.  The only thing that seems to affect us is supply and demand...

Got it..I thought so. Another thought,,how is this downturn gonna effect "Whale collectors". I remember, a very famous pulp collector told me one time...that the very rich "fly above the turbulence of life".  Probably true. The one "whale" piece that is currently available does not seem to have its price effected by this crisis yet as it is still on the market with NO bidders.

An incredible piece of original comic book art is coming to auction. The very first Flash Gordon Sunday. The artwork is a grail piece and great at the same time. Well, Profies thinks there is a whale out there...the minimum bid is $400,000.00 USD plus buyers premium. There is 8 days to go in the auction. We should all pay attention to see what the "whales" are doing. In better times I  that grail would sell for 500k or more easily, but if goes unsold it might mean that even the "whales" taking a break. Remember, "whale" collectors tend be jack prices when they really want a piece. Should be interesting to see what happens.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Tri-Color Brian]

44 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Got it..I thought so. Another thought,,how is this downturn gonna effect "Whale collectors". I remember, a very famous pulp collector told me one time...that the very rich "fly above the turbulence of life".  Probably true. The one "whale" piece that is currently available does not seem to have its price effected by this crisis yet as it is still on the market with NO bidders.

An incredible piece of original comic book art is coming to auction. The very first Flash Gordon Sunday. The artwork is a grail piece and great at the same time. Well, Profies thinks there is a whale out there...the minimum bid is $400,000.00 USD plus buyers premium. There is 8 days to go in the auction. We should all pay attention to see what the "whales" are doing. In better times I think sell for 500k or more easily, but if goes unsold it might mean that even the "whales" taking a break. Remember, "whale" collectors tend be jack prices when they really want a piece. Should be interesting to see what happens.

OK, first of all...you need to learn the difference between the words "affect" and "effect".  You're using "effect" wrong.  This drives me nuts...

And 2nd, I don't know how whale collectors even get the whales in a mylar...

Edited March 23, 2020 by Tri-ColorBrian

[szav]

9 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

Your using "effect" wrong.  This drives me nuts

You're also doing something that drives people nuts...

Edited March 23, 2020 by szav

[Tri-Color Brian]

9 minutes ago, szav said:

You're also doing something that drives people nuts...

I'm just trying to inject a little levity into this trying situation...but it seems funny book collectors don't have much of a sense of humor...

And yes, I do think a "lawyer" should be able to use words properly...

Edited March 23, 2020 by Tri-ColorBrian

[szav]

Just now, Tri-ColorBrian said:

I'm just trying to inject a little levity into this trying situation...but it seems funny book collectors don't have much of a sense of humor...

I think... you're .. .perhaps missing my point.

[Tri-Color Brian]

1 minute ago, szav said:

I think... you're .. .perhaps missing my point.

I think I covered it in my edit.  Refresh and read it again...