Tracking hammer results during the COVID-19 pandemic 5 5

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, 90sChild said:

I was also the losing bidder on the heritage book, but did not bid on the comiclink book.  All it takes is one person (Me in this case) to swing the bid wildly - all on a book nobody really cares about, as I'm just a run collector and this is not a speculation pick.

Yes, but isn't this the same scenario for virtually all books that sells through an auction platform of one type or another?  

I have won some lots on the CC auction site where I know that the final third of the actual realized price just came down to a bidding war between the last 2 bidders. 

No doubt this is also the exact kind of sceanrio that the consignor of the book is hoping for.    

[90sChild]

5 hours ago, DavidTheDavid said:

It's tricky. That's one question I'd love to answer with a bigger data set. We can assume that some high-dollar buyers also buy low-dollar books, but that low-dollar buyers seldom buy high-dollar books. That said, do one group of books (high- or low-dollar books) see more variance in this (presumed) downturn? If I'm a low-dollar buyer, the difference between $200 and $140 is substantial and might turn me off.

That's an interesting question, and I think the best way to answer it is comparing swing prices on the "most often sold" books to less often sold ones, which is one feature I really like on gocollect, a complete ranking of the amount of sales.  The "What's Selling" right on the home page.  You would have to do some kind of statistical analysis comparing maybe the top 50 hot books to some random books that land in the top 100 to top 500.
 

[DavidTheDavid]

Still going tonight.

[alexgross.com]

that hulk 1 5.0 that ended tonight on CL sure was a steal for someone. i'm pretty confident that in a year or two that'll be worth a fair deal more. no question that most prices are down now. good buying opportunity for those few that still have cash, imho. 

[kidcolt]

Like some have already stated I think the market was due for a slight drop. Over the past 10 years comics took a huge jump due to the movies. Seems like a lot of the "new" collectors are moving on to their next thing which for a lot is gaming. A lot will sell off the books they bought plus they won't be buying anymore comics. Less collectors likely means less demand with the same supply out there. I think the hobby was hinging on a decline from the movies and now with the virus and fear of employment loss, sickness any anything else related to the virus will tip it all the way now for those borderline collectors. I think keys will remain the same but a lot of the smaller value lower keys will drop back to where it use to be. As a comic reader and not investor I really hope it happens. My buying slowed drastically over the past 5-6 years. There was always plenty of supply but with the new collectors buying up every thing they thought might be the next hit inflated prices on non keys and small key issues. It was only a matter of time before those impulse new buyers stopped buying and sold off their comics. I know of at least 25-30 people who bought up everything at the local shops just hoping to hit it. I also know of a few shops that the owners pulled all these type books hiding them in the back room with hopes of those books hitting it big. Basically every 1st appearance disappeared over nigh from most shops. I am really interested to see how this all works out, if this virus continues to go into 6 months to a year it could have a major impact on the comic market. Right now our provincial postal system has been shut down for almost a week due to an employee at the postal distribution system being shut down. Its impossible for me to sell or buy online right now. I don't know when the postal system will resume or when it might shut down again. 

[DavidTheDavid]

41 minutes ago, kidcolt said:

Like some have already stated I think the market was due for a slight drop. Over the past 10 years comics took a huge jump due to the movies. Seems like a lot of the "new" collectors are moving on to their next thing which for a lot is gaming. A lot will sell off the books they bought plus they won't be buying anymore comics. Less collectors likely means less demand with the same supply out there. I think the hobby was hinging on a decline from the movies and now with the virus and fear of employment loss, sickness any anything else related to the virus will tip it all the way now for those borderline collectors. I think keys will remain the same but a lot of the smaller value lower keys will drop back to where it use to be. As a comic reader and not investor I really hope it happens. My buying slowed drastically over the past 5-6 years. There was always plenty of supply but with the new collectors buying up every thing they thought might be the next hit inflated prices on non keys and small key issues. It was only a matter of time before those impulse new buyers stopped buying and sold off their comics. I know of at least 25-30 people who bought up everything at the local shops just hoping to hit it. I also know of a few shops that the owners pulled all these type books hiding them in the back room with hopes of those books hitting it big. Basically every 1st appearance disappeared over nigh from most shops. I am really interested to see how this all works out, if this virus continues to go into 6 months to a year it could have a major impact on the comic market. Right now our provincial postal system has been shut down for almost a week due to an employee at the postal distribution system being shut down. Its impossible for me to sell or buy online right now. I don't know when the postal system will resume or when it might shut down again. 

This is what I'm really watching. I see the word correction being used a lot. But a global recession with an explosion of unemployment could remove a lot of buyers from the market. I see a lot of young guys playing the hot-and-modern game, but many of them will have sharply reduced income now. I can see that segment of the market really taking a beating. But even for middle-income earners, there's going to be an effect.

I don't have the time or interest to keep this project going for a long period of time, like all of 2020, but I will probably grab results from a few more auctions in the next couple of months.

[kidcolt]

24 minutes ago, DavidTheDavid said:

This is what I'm really watching. I see the word correction being used a lot. But a global recession with an explosion of unemployment could remove a lot of buyers from the market. I see a lot of young guys playing the hot-and-modern game, but many of them will have sharply reduced income now. I can see that segment of the market really taking a beating. But even for middle-income earners, there's going to be an effect.

I don't have the time or interest to keep this project going for a long period of time, like all of 2020, but I will probably grab results from a few more auctions in the next couple of months.

Exactly. I have four close collecting friends that got laid off from work this week due to the virus. They are middle income guys and if they are off work long they said the comics and cards are the first to go. One said even if the market is hurting he will still have no choice but to move his stuff. Right now collecting is at a full 100% halt!!! I live in an isolated community, my nearest comic shop is 1000 km, my collecting is done 100% online and through the mail service. No mail = no comics.

[batman_fan]

On 3/25/2020 at 2:26 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

I used to bring home street signs as a kid  

There was an uprooted and lying on the ground Handicapped sign on a pole behind a major grocery store, that's the one that started it all...... thank God when I moved out my parents were able to return stuff to the city with no problem oye

When I lived in CA, our street was "Thrasher Lane"

That street sign got stolen about as fast as they replaced it.  Skateboarders loved it.

Solution - make the sign higher up and attach it with special bolts that only allow attaching.  That stopped it completely.  Thank god the skater kids didn't think about just drilling out the bolts.

[ADAMANTIUM]

2 hours ago, batman_fan said:

When I lived in CA, our street was "Thrasher Lane"

That street sign got stolen about as fast as they replaced it.  Skateboarders loved it.

Solution - make the sign higher up and attach it with special bolts that only allow attaching.  That stopped it completely.  Thank god the skater kids didn't think about just drilling out the bolts.

When I was a kid...

I lived on "Kirby St." Sure it's not "Jack Kirby" but my parents got that sign some How when they moved. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by ADAMANTIUM

[DavidTheDavid]

I'm adding Heritage results to a new tab. Far fewer comics to track, but some good points to compare.

LINK

Edited March 30, 2020 by DavidTheDavid

[Bronty]

On 3/27/2020 at 1:34 PM, kidcolt said:

Like some have already stated I think the market was due for a slight drop. Over the past 10 years comics took a huge jump due to the movies. Seems like a lot of the "new" collectors are moving on to their next thing which for a lot is gaming. A lot will sell off the books they bought plus they won't be buying anymore comics. Less collectors likely means less demand with the same supply out there. I think the hobby was hinging on a decline from the movies and now with the virus and fear of employment loss, sickness any anything else related to the virus will tip it all the way now for those borderline collectors. I think keys will remain the same but a lot of the smaller value lower keys will drop back to where it use to be. As a comic reader and not investor I really hope it happens. My buying slowed drastically over the past 5-6 years. There was always plenty of supply but with the new collectors buying up every thing they thought might be the next hit inflated prices on non keys and small key issues. It was only a matter of time before those impulse new buyers stopped buying and sold off their comics. I know of at least 25-30 people who bought up everything at the local shops just hoping to hit it. I also know of a few shops that the owners pulled all these type books hiding them in the back room with hopes of those books hitting it big. Basically every 1st appearance disappeared over nigh from most shops. I am really interested to see how this all works out, if this virus continues to go into 6 months to a year it could have a major impact on the comic market. Right now our provincial postal system has been shut down for almost a week due to an employee at the postal distribution system being shut down. Its impossible for me to sell or buy online right now. I don't know when the postal system will resume or when it might shut down again. 

I hadn’t heard about the postal issues.   What province?

[kidcolt]

57 minutes ago, Bronty said:

I hadn’t heard about the postal issues.   What province?

Newfoundland

[Bird]

I had some things in a Heritage auction in November, and one of the original art items went unpaid! So it was re-offered and turns out it ends tonight. It is about 50% of what it sold for in November and the auction ends tonight, so it will be an interesting comparison (one data point only) to see where it ends now. Paul Smith Dormammu is the piece

It seems that many items are still getting strong selling prices but I did get what I felt was a nice deal on some raw books yesterday (we'll see for sure when in hand).

I certainly am paying more attention to the weekly HA auctions now that I am home all the time. it is a nice way to spend a little time, go through and track some things and see where they end up $ wise.

[thunsicker]

On 3/28/2020 at 12:46 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

When I was a kid...

I lived on "Kirby St." Sure it's not "Jack Kirby" but my parents got that sign some How when they moved. 

City Island, New York:

[ADAMANTIUM]

4 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

City Island, New York:

Lol love the whole intersection haha

Our signs back then were bigger, something about bigger in Texas, haha nah but that one looks like you'd need the while kit and kaboodle!!

[DavidTheDavid]

And we're off!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14jkkDxV_f3dn0-2hUcW5zY2UX59Tmxih2sB2O6DKl_A/edit#gid=0

[comicnoir]

When the Rifleman 10 is down 32.73%, this hobby is in trouble.

[lou_fine]

37 minutes ago, comicnoir said:

When the Rifleman 10 is down 32.73%, this hobby is in trouble.

OMG........if the Rifleman's manhood is trending down 32.73%, not only is the hobby in trouble, he's going to be in trouble with his female companions.  

[90sChild]

The stock market was down 34% before it hit any resistance so all that tells me is people are treating comics like stocks & investments more than they are anything else.  It doesn't make sense to sell at a 30% loss because you're essentially just panic selling like all the stock holders who are going to regret it a year from now.

Edited April 2, 2020 by 90sChild

[DavidTheDavid]

1 minute ago, 90sChild said:

The stock market was down 34% before it hit any resistance so all that tells me is people are treating comics like stocks & investments more than they are anything else.  It doesn't make sense to sell at a 30% loss because you're essentially just panic selling like all the stock holders who are going to regret it a year from now.

Well, those who submitted to this particular CLink auction could not have predicted this. More broadly, there's no shortage of comic collectors with not enough savings, a poor retirement portfolio, and lots of comics. Those who need the cash will sell, and the vultures will come to collect their due.