Tracking hammer results during the COVID-19 pandemic
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On 4/4/2020 at 4:41 PM, lou_fine said:

I believe his statement is probaly true with certain sectors of the marketplace as he was really referring to speculators and flippers, as opposed to long time collectors.  hm

As a result, I would certainly not be surprised to see a rather serious down draft in prices for short-term movie related hype books or for highest graded copies of otherwise recent common books.  I don't think you'll see the same kind of down draft in the aera of HTF GA books that long time collectors probably purchased for pennies on today's dollar because they will simply hold onto them and wait for the market to rebound back up again.  (thumbsu

Especially since there's probably no urgent reason for the long term collectors to be selling since they've probably had these books for decades anyways, as opposed to the speculators or flippers who's game plan was probably to play the CPR game and to simply flip them back out within a short period of time.  (shrug)

Except in today’s reality, millions of people have lost their jobs and their health insurance (in the US anyway, where tying healthcare to your job is somehow acceptable) and desperate times call for purging of useless items like collectibles. 

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Posted (edited)

Either the gocollect average on low grade FF#1 is high or it just sold at a 20% discount.  Then again any grade below 4.0 doesn't do great.  The Fantastic Four #28 8.5 with X-Men crossover sold 10% above average.  
I have about 40 slabs on ebay listed with only 1 ASM selling so far and at least 7 different X-Men books with bids.  Zero bids on Fantastic Four books.   X-Men seem to be the best of the best right now.


https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/superhero/fantastic-four-1-marvel-1961-cgc-gd-25-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122014-11197.s

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/superhero/fantastic-four-28-marvel-1964-cgc-vf-85-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122014-11206.s

 

Edited by 90sChild

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7 hours ago, MYNAMEISLEGION said:

some don't have the luxury of patience - or the money.  Some will simply be dissuaded from participating (CPR). Both scenarios affect prices.  You can certainly gamble that it's a temporary dip, and will swing back up.......later.  But if you and others like you that are still buying start to get cold feet, and some will- well then this bull market it dead too.  It always happens.....eventually.  It's a self fulfilling prophecy either way. The effects of the last pandemic were largely masked by WW1 and markets were much less interconnected. 

Name me the event where the stock market went to zero and stayed there?  

I know, I know this time it's different right.  :smirk:

Let me ask you if you invested 10k (standard diversification)  from the day the stock market crashed in 1929 and didnt look it again till March 2020 are you up or down?  You are up in many simulations 450,000-650,000.   Many dont have the luxury and I do feel for them which is why I have said in other threads the USA (or world) being shutdown past April or May could very well be more costly than the virus itself.  Time will tell.....

Oh and I dont need to buy anything for the next 10-15 years.  This actually gives me an opportunity to convert to cash. Lots of books to get graded and sold to happy collectors! 

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Nearly every book I sold tonight was an X-Men book, only 2 weren't.

Still have my FF 45 8.5, 52 9.0, ASM 6 9.0.  I figured these would be the three books with far greater demand considering rarity but didn't seem to be the case.

Eh6yKkJ.jpg

 

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Posted (edited)

Also I found this interesting.  200%.  
I think it's safe to say any sales data is more accurate with higher sample size.. this shows how little it can mean when there's only 19 in grade and 11 higher.9axMAQo.jpg

 

Edited by 90sChild

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1 minute ago, 90sChild said:

Also I found this interesting.  200%.  
I think it's safe to say any sales data is more accurate with higher sample size.. this shows how little it can mean when there's only 19 in grade and 11 higher.9axMAQo.jpg

 

Pretty sure I was the under bidder here.  the 9.0 though that sold feb 2020 was $3k (because I think that per GPA, the $3k included the juice) -- so $6k it's about double a 9.0 -- that buyer must have wanted it awful lot, because I wanted it but was not sorry afterwards that I had lost it.  

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2 hours ago, Foolkiller said:
2 hours ago, 90sChild said:

Also I found this interesting.  200%.  
I think it's safe to say any sales data is more accurate with higher sample size.. this shows how little it can mean when there's only 19 in grade and 11 higher.9axMAQo.jpg

 

Pretty sure I was the under bidder here.  the 9.0 though that sold feb 2020 was $3k (because I think that per GPA, the $3k included the juice) -- so $6k it's about double a 9.0 -- that buyer must have wanted it awful lot, because I wanted it but was not sorry afterwards that I had lost it.  

Based upon what's currently taking place in the real world and a possible foreshadowing of what's going to take place in the comic book marketplace, you should be glad that you didn't win this copy at the price point that it went for.  (thumbsu

From my personal point of view, this is going to be a perfect example of the type of book that's destined to take a rather big fall from their record prices once collectors start to offload their books.  Especially for a book like this that already has 11 copies in higher grade plus another 18 copies in equivalent graded condition.  Most assurdedly a relative common book with already over 500 graded copies, with a whopping 60 of them in relatively HG condition at CGC 9.0 or higher.  doh!  :tonofbricks:

Definitely the type of book that you should be able to pick up with relative ease at a lower price point going forward as long as you have a bit of patience.  :taptaptap:  :takeit:

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, NewWorldOrder said:

Name me the event where the stock market went to zero and stayed there?  

I know, I know this time it's different right.  :smirk:

Let me ask you if you invested 10k (standard diversification)  from the day the stock market crashed in 1929 and didnt look it again till March 2020 are you up or down?  You are up in many simulations 450,000-650,000.   Many dont have the luxury and I do feel for them which is why I have said in other threads the USA (or world) being shutdown past April or May could very well be more costly than the virus itself.  Time will tell.....

Oh and I dont need to buy anything for the next 10-15 years.  This actually gives me an opportunity to convert to cash. Lots of books to get graded and sold to happy collectors! 

the market got as low as 800 in 1932, that was the true bottom. That's pretty damn close to zero.

if your best argument is a hypothetical 10K investment for 91 years I can't help you. have your great-grandkids post what they made off your comics in 2111.  :screwy: 

But the next 10-15 years?  You mean like it was 1929 - 1944? It took until 1960 to recover it's previous peak. And you are assuming a complete apples to apples comparison to the stock market. Collectibles come and go, tastes, change, nostalgia fades, and the bull market for super hero comics only had about another decade or so of runway before it would demographically run out of gas. 

Edited by MYNAMEISLEGION

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On 4/6/2020 at 2:27 AM, Larryw7 said:

Not really if you are a CGC label collector and willing to pay up for the current CGC highest graded copy of a particular book.  hm

After all, it's only about 6X condition guide for a highest graded copy for this particular copy here.  (shrug)

Now, if they was paying this kind of multiple for a lower graded restored copy, then I would definitely take more notice of the book itself. (thumbsu

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Posted (edited)

You have quite the interesting perspective from decades of collecting... A JIM 103 to me does not seem that common on the census... 500 is alot compared to golden age books but I would not say common for comparable marvel silver age.  Certainly there are more common books in 9.0+ higher when it comes to that.    (IE. FF #48 over 500 above 9.0).  Do you think that is due to the book being less common or less popular?  Obviously less popular to an extent, but 10x as many, hmm.  Silver age marvel is still silver age marvel.  I think JIM 103 is still under-appreciated.

Edited by 90sChild

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Then I see things like this... 

This was what I found the most interesting in the current Comiclink auction. 

Amazing Spider-man 252 CGC 9.8 Off-White to White Pages Ended on 4/1 at $376 (15 bids) CLink listed it in Late Bronze to Copper Age to Modern HERE

Amazing Spider-man 252 CGC 9.8 White Pages Ended on 4/6 at $475 (22 bids) CLink listed it in Assorted Comics and Other Memorabilia (Which usually the dead zone) HERE

This interests me as you have to question whether or not white pages really gets a $99 bump especially when the more heavily bid on book is buried in the back section. 

GPA on the book dating back to 2020-01-13 for those interested. 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-04-07 at 5.01.52 PM.png

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4 hours ago, 90sChild said:

You have quite the interesting perspective from decades of collecting... A JIM 103 to me does not seem that common on the census... 500 is alot compared to golden age books but I would not say common for comparable marvel silver age.  Certainly there are more common books in 9.0+ higher when it comes to that.    (IE. FF #48 over 500 above 9.0).  Do you think that is due to the book being less common or less popular?  Obviously less popular to an extent, but 10x as many, hmm.  Silver age marvel is still silver age marvel.  I think JIM 103 is still under-appreciated.

It’s the first appearance of extremely minor level villains, not a Doom or Green Goblin. It was hyped for the Thor movie and I can’t see it retaining value 10 years or more from now. 

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5 hours ago, 90sChild said:

A JIM 103 to me does not seem that common on the census... 500 is alot compared to golden age books but I would not say common for comparable marvel silver age.  Certainly there are more common books in 9.0+ higher when it comes to that.    (IE. FF #48 over 500 above 9.0).

Wasn't FF #48 supposedly part of a big warehouse find or something like that?  (shrug)

Of course, the other factor is that FF 48 is definitely considered to be a big demand and key SA book, and as such, brings a lot more copies into the marketplace. (thumbsu

Being primarily a GA collector for the past couple of decades, I am definitely biased that way as I tend to seek out the much HTF early GA books, and as such, the total census population count on them are usually still only into the single digits after some 20 years of certification.  :luhv:  :takeit:

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7 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Wasn't FF #48 supposedly part of a big warehouse find or something like that?  (shrug)

Of course, the other factor is that FF 48 is definitely considered to be a big demand and key SA book, and as such, brings a lot more copies into the marketplace. (thumbsu

Being primarily a GA collector for the past couple of decades, I am definitely biased that way as I tend to seek out the much HTF early GA books, and as such, the total census population count on them are usually still only into the single digits after some 20 years of certification.  :luhv:  :takeit:

Yes, 48 was a warehouse find.   That book spiked once Disney bought Fox since many considered it more very likely for the Silver Surfer to appear in MCU films within the next few years. 

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On 4/6/2020 at 4:27 AM, Larryw7 said:

That is nuts. 

And weird too.

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8 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

Then I see things like this... 

This was what I found the most interesting in the current Comiclink auction. 

Amazing Spider-man 252 CGC 9.8 Off-White to White Pages Ended on 4/1 at $376 (15 bids) CLink listed it in Late Bronze to Copper Age to Modern HERE

Amazing Spider-man 252 CGC 9.8 White Pages Ended on 4/6 at $475 (22 bids) CLink listed it in Assorted Comics and Other Memorabilia (Which usually the dead zone) HERE

This interests me as you have to question whether or not white pages really gets a $99 bump especially when the more heavily bid on book is buried in the back section. 

GPA on the book dating back to 2020-01-13 for those interested. 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-04-07 at 5.01.52 PM.png

Wall of text, dude.  Ain't nobody got time for that.

 

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4 hours ago, JollyComics said:
On 4/6/2020 at 2:27 AM, Larryw7 said:

That is nuts. 

And weird too.

Wow - is this about thumb-sucking? (tsk)

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8 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

Then I see things like this... 

This was what I found the most interesting in the current Comiclink auction. 

Amazing Spider-man 252 CGC 9.8 Off-White to White Pages Ended on 4/1 at $376 (15 bids) CLink listed it in Late Bronze to Copper Age to Modern HERE

Amazing Spider-man 252 CGC 9.8 White Pages Ended on 4/6 at $475 (22 bids) CLink listed it in Assorted Comics and Other Memorabilia (Which usually the dead zone) HERE

This interests me as you have to question whether or not white pages really gets a $99 bump especially when the more heavily bid on book is buried in the back section. 

GPA on the book dating back to 2020-01-13 for those interested. 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-04-07 at 5.01.52 PM.png

Azz, that was my OWW copy

What I've noticed in a lot of cases is that sometimes, people bid more in the later part of the auctions when they lose out on the earlier auctions.

I've had one book in the regular auction - Black Widow 1 CGC 9.8 and the first one sold for around $100 and the later one sold for $188.  FMV is closer to the former so you never know.

FU @Buzzetta

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