My fellow comic shop owners 2 2

[lighthouse]

16 minutes ago, JJ-4 said:

Interesting tool to look at COVID projections (not sure I agree with them)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You can select CA in the drop down to see the peak is projected  to be April 17 from a number of deaths prospective.  The model spits out a huge range for some states.

Worth noting that those projections are based on social distancing continuing through at least the end of May, and that in the FAQ they define social distancing as including non-essential businesses being closed. 

So that’s the projection even if my shop (and the others in states that closed “early”) is closed for 75 days. 

The original models used on that site had non-essential businesses closed through August 4th. And that’s still the date in the FAQ. But the summary pages now say through end of May. 

So maybe I’m only closed 75 days? But I’m still guessing it will be 90-100. 

[JJ-4]

I'm not in CA so that sounds reasonable.

[wilbil]

On 4/6/2020 at 3:43 PM, buttock said:

$350B is not even one week of US GDP.  I know that's not an exact measure of the need, but it shows how little that actually is.  Anyone who wasn't ready to file the second it opened was destined to miss out. 

250 bil added today. that is a start in the give me more money direction.

[the blob]

46 minutes ago, lighthouse said:

Worth noting that those projections are based on social distancing continuing through at least the end of May, and that in the FAQ they define social distancing as including non-essential businesses being closed. 

So that’s the projection even if my shop (and the others in states that closed “early”) is closed for 75 days. 

The original models used on that site had non-essential businesses closed through August 4th. And that’s still the date in the FAQ. But the summary pages now say through end of May. 

So maybe I’m only closed 75 days? But I’m still guessing it will be 90-100. 

this indicates mid-may for CA, but different models come up with different results: https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/california-covid-19-peak-models-may-15185230.php

This sounds encouraging: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/04/07/New-York-reports-record-COVID-19-deaths-but-hospitalizations-drop/4751586273049/

But it may just mean more people are dying in their homes. The husband of a friend is a paramedic and spends his days picking up bodies of mainly older people family/neighbors thought had heart attacks (not sure why anyone thinks a heart attack nowadays) and he can tell otherwise. Unclear how well these deaths are getting reported in the numbers. It's now at the point where I know a lot of people who have lost parents, siblings, etc, Which makes sense I suppose as it was the same after 9/11 and there were fewer dead. Enough morose talk, sorry, I really hope things are reopening by memorial day.

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by the blob

[FlyingDonut]

We were just told to cancel our parking for May as the office in Virginia will not reopen before June 10. Hey, I save $85.

[FlyingDonut]

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

[wilbil]

links that require signing up to read is anti-american during a cv19 crisis.

[Bookery]

My bank gives me a daily email update.  Unfortunately-- it's the exact same "update" every day.  I am told that I am at Step 2 of a 7-Step process.  I can expect more emails "later" asking for a lot of documents.  Then, once the bank has reviewed all of those, it gets forwarded back to the SBA for their series of reviews.  The initial application already has a glitch... my home address is wrong (it was pre-filled by the bank)... and it wouldn't let me fix it (despite showing an "edit" button).

This Friday I will have paid my employees for 3 weeks of non-work out of my own pocket.  But this is as far as I can go.  I'm thinking I might better serve them to tell them to file for unemployment, since if they wait around, it's hard to say when this PPP will actually get done, or IF, since there's no guarantee of approval.  The emails also said this would be handled at the bank's national level... and to not contact the local, which is very unfortunate.  I have a great record with my local bank and they know me... if it was up to them this would sail through.

[DavidTheDavid]

41 minutes ago, Bookery said:

My bank gives me a daily email update.  Unfortunately-- it's the exact same "update" every day.  I am told that I am at Step 2 of a 7-Step process.  I can expect more emails "later" asking for a lot of documents.  Then, once the bank has reviewed all of those, it gets forwarded back to the SBA for their series of reviews.  The initial application already has a glitch... my home address is wrong (it was pre-filled by the bank)... and it wouldn't let me fix it (despite showing an "edit" button).

This Friday I will have paid my employees for 3 weeks of non-work out of my own pocket.  But this is as far as I can go.  I'm thinking I might better serve them to tell them to file for unemployment, since if they wait around, it's hard to say when this PPP will actually get done, or IF, since there's no guarantee of approval.  The emails also said this would be handled at the bank's national level... and to not contact the local, which is very unfortunate.  I have a great record with my local bank and they know me... if it was up to them this would sail through.

Unemployment queues are long. My wife is still waiting for word two weeks after filing. 

[NP_Gresham]

I hope the stimulus saves a lot of small businesses.

I honestly think this is going to be a 'doomsday' scenario for many.

The banks are backing away from these loans and the fed losening 'cash-on-hand' limits is not inspiring many banks to expand those limits.

If the banks are worried, the rest of us should be petrified.

On a side note, I have about 80K in my credit union.They sent me a survey asking what I thought. I filled it out telling them what I thought about the $2/mth they charge for the paper statement. I expected to hear nothing.

Wrong, the bank VP called me TWICE on consecutive days. After leaving a message I got called back. They read the questionaire and said they were rescinding the charge off my bill and going back a full year and refunding me.

The banks are really reacting and are catering to depositors, even nickle and dimers like me.

This is a very worrying sign.

[shadroch]

Reports of the SBA limiting these loans to $15,000 seem accurate. If so, this will be a true disaster.

[lighthouse]

1 minute ago, shadroch said:

Reports of the SBA limiting these loans to $15,000 seem accurate. If so, this will be a true disaster.

This business got $200k?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paycheck-protection-program-heather-sanborn-owner-rising-tide-brewing-loan-sba/

[shadroch]

NY Times and WSJ are reporting the SBA hotline is advising funds are limited to $15,000. I have not called it myself.

[lighthouse]

1 minute ago, shadroch said:

NY Times and WSJ are reporting the SBA hotline is advising funds are limited to $15,000. I have not called it myself.

Interesting. Maybe they moved the goalposts after seeing they weren't getting the additional $250b.

[wilbil]

10 minutes ago, lighthouse said:

This business got $200k?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paycheck-protection-program-heather-sanborn-owner-rising-tide-brewing-loan-sba/

yet can find fault with it, and complaining, instead of thinking about  a positive solution. i can think of 3 solutions to solve their dissatisfaction.

4 really, if i count suggesting they refuse the loan or give the money back. it never ceases to amaze me.

[lighthouse]

4 minutes ago, wilbil said:

yet can find fault with it, and complaining, instead of thinking about  a positive solution. i can think of 3 solutions to solve their dissatisfaction.

4 really, if i count suggesting they refuse the loan or give the money back. it never ceases to amaze me.

Agreed. I get that you didn't receive exactly the birthday present you would have picked out.

But if you can't find use for $200k at 1% interest with a 6 month deferral and 2 year term, where you will get some part of it forgiven (whether that's all of it or 10% of it) there's something wrong. They're gonna pay around $2100 in interest if none of it was forgiven. Even if you waited and rehired all your people in the 8th week of the loan period, they would forgive $25k (one week's payroll) plus 1/3 of that amount ($8,333) spent on mortgage/lease/utilities.

So you got $33k in government grant, and a $167,000 loan at 1% interest payable over 2 years starting 4 months after you rehired your people. Any way you look at it that's a massive helping hand.

[batman_fan]

We are buying a property right now and the loan officer we work with said they got slammed with SBA applications, 15k more than normal so they are completely swamped.  Good/bad thing is we don't close till May 7th at the earliest.

[shadroch]

1 hour ago, lighthouse said:

Agreed. I get that you didn't receive exactly the birthday present you would have picked out.

But if you can't find use for $200k at 1% interest with a 6 month deferral and 2 year term, where you will get some part of it forgiven (whether that's all of it or 10% of it) there's something wrong. They're gonna pay around $2100 in interest if none of it was forgiven. Even if you waited and rehired all your people in the 8th week of the loan period, they would forgive $25k (one week's payroll) plus 1/3 of that amount ($8,333) spent on mortgage/lease/utilities.

So you got $33k in government grant, and a $167,000 loan at 1% interest payable over 2 years starting 4 months after you rehired your people. Any way you look at it that's a massive helping hand.

When your eccentric Uncle promises you a free Camaro and it turns out  he is loaning you a Citation, I don't blame a fella for being upset.

Is better to under promise and over deliver than the reverse.

[wilbil]

1 hour ago, lighthouse said:

Agreed. I get that you didn't receive exactly the birthday present you would have picked out.

But if you can't find use for $200k at 1% interest with a 6 month deferral and 2 year term, where you will get some part of it forgiven (whether that's all of it or 10% of it) there's something wrong. They're gonna pay around $2100 in interest if none of it was forgiven. Even if you waited and rehired all your people in the 8th week of the loan period, they would forgive $25k (one week's payroll) plus 1/3 of that amount ($8,333) spent on mortgage/lease/utilities.

So you got $33k in government grant, and a $167,000 loan at 1% interest payable over 2 years starting 4 months after you rehired your people. Any way you look at it that's a massive helping hand.

i admit to being cynical as to true intent when i read that type of response from the recipient of good fortune. it comes across as an inner anger that a plan to bankrupt out and walk away after obtaining the windfall has been fouled. they don't know what to do, because they don't have the talent and ability to weather adversity, much less face the prospect of applying themselves and a higher level of elbow grease for a better result. their real actions are based on screw the employees, i will keep 4 to make it look good until i get the bucks. wait, i can't do it on my timetable and the bank has added some strings?

heavens to mergotroid, foiled again. quick, complain and cover our tracks, honey.

christ it is irritating. i have had my say. note to self, move on.

[lighthouse]

Received my loan approval today (yes on a Sunday) and signed my loan documents a few minutes ago.

Had my application submitted in the first 4 hours, received approval 9 days later.