IN THE ERA OF COVID19...BUYER'S MARKET? 9 9

[Krismusic]

14 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

I had all the Joes and saved the backing cards and all that too.  Had all the Star Wars figures too.  Had huge crates of the stuff that I think we ultimately donated in the late 80s.  Them's the breaks.

Yeah but at least you feel good that you donated it and someone else got to enjoy it.. I think every collector get to this stage at some point in their collecting life. 

[littledoom]

I remember in March when this all started I got many messages from cheapskate lowballers asking for 70-80% off my prices because the "world was ending"... point is they thought it was a buyers market and we all know how that turned out.... 

Edited August 20, 2020 by littledoom

[Black_Adam]

The only big difference I have noticed with COVID is how many more US sellers - including many sellers on these CGC sales forums - now refuse to ship to Canada. 

[piper]

39 minutes ago, Black_Adam said:

The only big difference I have noticed with COVID is how many more US sellers - including many sellers on these CGC sales forums - now refuse to ship to Canada. 

I agree. I’ve been very fortunate that a boardie has been an intermediary and shipped books to Canada for me.

[Hollywood1892]

Yeah

This thread aged horribly

[piper]

38 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Yeah

This thread aged horribly

It proves trying to be Nostradamus is hard.

[Asianassassincomics]

Sports card market has also gone nuts and not a buyer's market. Unopened boxes, PSA 10s and Jordan / Kobe / Lebron stuff is crazy. 

[90sChild]

I think it has to do with people being bored out of their minds, spending more time working from home and thus spending more time on the computer procrastinating, and also a bit of fear which resulted in subconscious hoarding mentality similar to what we saw with toilet paper back in the early covid panic.  Those of us who are collectors release our hoarding urge on whatever it is we focus collecting.  I went the opposite direction and sold a bunch.
I think it is a bit funny my sales thread that was posted near the bottom of the crash has prices today that would make people angry.  I had a ton of books that went unsold and a few others that sold for 30-50% more not much afterwards.
 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by 90sChild

[snitzer]

5 hours ago, Asianassassincomics said:

Sports card market has also gone nuts and not a buyer's market. Unopened boxes, PSA 10s and Jordan / Kobe / Lebron stuff is crazy. 

Not to mention the graded, sealed video game market as well. Insane prices being paid for NES titles. Tyson, Zelda, Metroid, etc., all commanding big dollars in high grade.

[Doctor Dositheus]

BIG AUCTIONS THIS WEEK!
WALLETS WILL TAKE BEATINGS!



Now we'll really get to see if the long sought buyer's market will start to emerge. If you've been watching closely there has been downward price pressure on the higher grade keys, books that sell for five figures plus, but that just hasn't affected the books in the $500 - $5000 range much yet. I think we might start to see some signs of the buyer's market coming this week. It just feels like the number of sellers is on the rise, and the abundant cash is either kind of on pause or being used for more important things right now.

[Hollywood1892]

9 hours ago, snitzer said:

Not to mention the graded, sealed video game market as well. Insane prices being paid for NES titles. Tyson, Zelda, Metroid, etc., all commanding big dollars in high grade.

Yes, this is insane

I see Nerdygirl on Instagram selling sealed graded video games all the time and I'm like "What, this is a thing?"

[Hollywood1892]

6 hours ago, Doctor Dositheus said:

BIG AUCTIONS THIS WEEK!
WALLETS WILL TAKE BEATINGS!



Now we'll really get to see if the long sought buyer's market will start to emerge. If you've been watching closely there has been downward price pressure on the higher grade keys, books that sell for five figures plus, but that just hasn't affected the books in the $500 - $5000 range much yet. I think we might start to see some signs of the buyer's market coming this week. It just feels like the number of sellers is on the rise, and the abundant cash is either kind of on pause or being used for more important things right now.

It will be interesting, but in defense of five figure books, those can fluctuate a few k here and there seemingly over night

[comicginger1789]

On 8/20/2020 at 6:05 PM, Black_Adam said:

The only big difference I have noticed with COVID is how many more US sellers - including many sellers on these CGC sales forums - now refuse to ship to Canada. 

Agreed!

To all you Yanks, us Hosers are fine paying for it! You can track stuff and if we get but with customs, that’s on the buyer. It doesn’t even take that long anymore, couple weeks, same as usual.

[trmoore54]

On ‎2020‎-‎08‎-‎20 at 4:35 PM, Hollywood1892 said:

Yeah

This thread aged horribly

Most all observations, reports and accounts here are anecdotal...which is fine but does not necessarily convey all reality and truth.  And a lot of these areas and items are quite niche-y.  Current CLINK Auction has as many uber/HG ASM I've seen in some time 1-50+ (seems like someone unloaded their HG collection) so I will be curious to see for these the final sales prices.  I will go so far as to say or feel that the market has remained fairly stable but I do not see any significant or slightly significant uptick in Silver Age market (my interest)...

[90sChild]

31 minutes ago, trmoore54 said:

Most all observations, reports and accounts here are anecdotal...which is fine but does not necessarily convey all reality and truth.  And a lot of these areas and items are quite niche-y.  Current CLINK Auction has as many uber/HG ASM I've seen in some time 1-50+ (seems like someone unloaded their HG collection) so I will be curious to see for these the final sales prices.  I will go so far as to say or feel that the market has remained fairly stable but I do not see any significant or slightly significant uptick in Silver Age market (my interest)...

Yeah I noticed that as well... silver seems undervalued compared to copper or bronze which is just fine with me.  Most of the speculation coming into copper and even modern books seems very short sighted to me and is based only on the movie speculation train we've seen over the past 10-15 years.  It is a simple supply and demand equation and yet nobody is paying attention to just how much supply there is of 9.8 copper and modern books.  I'd take a 8.5 or 9.0 silver over a 9.8 modern any day and will continue to do so as I only add silver books to the collection.

Last book I bought was a FF#28 8.5, looking at the census counting all the 8.5 copies there are still less than 200 total graded.  It sells for roughly what a CGC 9.6 ultimate fallout #4 would get.  Nearly 2000 9.8's and 1500 9.6's on the census for the book, but as we all know, the 1st miles book will continue to climb higher and higher in price despite those numbers, and I have zero doubt it will outperform my FF#28 over the next few years.  That didn't stop me from buying it though, I'm sticking with the rarity side of the equation.

Edited August 23, 2020 by 90sChild

[Hollywood1892]

Yeah

Prices of moderns confuses me

[trmoore54]

And the winner is…COMICLINK!!

I posted a thread in Comics General back on April 3 as to whether the COVID19 effects would create a buyer’s market in the greater comics collecting world.  Seemed logical that one might expect that, given the economic ramifications that ensued since March.  And over the course of the thread, many board members have weighed in and quite a few people have expressed not only is it NOT a buyer’s market but in many cases has been an up-trending seller’s market.  Granted, many of the reports are anecdotal and many refer to niche-y small markets.

 

Several people voiced the opinion that the huge unemployment numbers were just a temporary setback and once the world and USA/Canada started opening back up people would return to their jobs and things would eventually return to normal.  Especially for the unemployed who were essentially barred from working or opening their businesses depending on the nature of the business.  So, as we have seen in the last month or so, (I’ll speak primarily of the US and California as my frame of reference) many people are returning to work and socially returning to support businesses etc.  And yet we’ve had some start-backs and some re-shutdowns and we’re still not there yet…in many ways closer and in perhaps largely not yet out of the woods.  So this pandemic environment is certainly fluid and the overall situation still in flux.

 

I’m mostly interested in the SA market and primarily Marvel books…and even more primarily, ASM.  So the ComicLink Auction that featured many many HG ASM in the past week and that closed yesterday, I’d thought I’d do a small sample analysis to see what results we might glean from it.  And I only focused on the AF15/ASM1-50 issues, which were 58 books.  And as always, I found these results interesting to say the least.  The first thing that I always check, is did the final sales price actually make any of the sellers any money.  When selling through an auction house bear in mind you have to realize an 11% profit to earn a 1% profit.  My analysis, only compares the sale price to the current market expectation, which is primarily in this case the most recent GPA sale or an average of recent GPA sales (not an absolute definition of the market by any means but sound enough for this analysis I feel).  In this regard, I am thinking how I would feel…I am deciding to sell the book for whatever reason but I am assuming most sellers would like to make a profit.  And especially in a HG Auction, can I set a new higher market price for my effort.  These emotions can swing both ways, for the buyer as well.  The buyer wins the book at market or less and initially feels “I got a good deal”…and then perhaps reflects, is the price level trending downward.  Would be of more concern for the quick flippers than the long-haul collector.

 

There are other explanations as well such as ASM 13 where hype took this book to a high of about $7500+ with most recent sale of $6600 and now a sale of $6211.  Oh to speculate.

 

Granted, this analysis doesn’t take into account for net gain or profit the buyer’s purchase price, as any number of the sellers could’ve bought the book at any point in the past at a lower or much lower price.  But it is a barometer I feel and does provide some information about expectations and the current market.

 

Some people did well over market…while many others lost (don’t forget that 10% commission).  The net losses for the 2 lower grade AF15s were an approximate 20% hit (and again, I think this title fluctuates quite a bit on any given grade point depending on overall appearance, page quality etc. that dictates that all 4.5s or 3.0s are not equal, and that applies to all books and grades).  Most of the books that achieved 35% or greater net gains were specialized, more “one off” type books, either selectively rare HG books or a Pedigree.  I realize also that movie hype and other anticipations affect certain books and they will fluctuate more than other books…I don’t keep track of all of those things.  Only 7 of the 58 books achieved a 36% or greater net gain.

 

For the ASM 39s, 9.6 and 9.4, would you be bummed if you had a 30% and 13% net loss respectively?

 

Lastly, and this is I think the most interesting.  I think the 10% commission makes it really hard to make money on comics unless you hold them for some time…talking 5 years or more in many cases.  The 58 books realized a total sales of $461,025 providing CLINK with a tidy $46,103 commission.  The $8,508 aggregate net gain provided the sellers an aggregate net gain of 1.8%.

 

Note the following:

Issue 18 9.8 highest grade 1 of 5

Issue 21 9.4 Northland Pedigree

Issue 22 9.4 Suscha News Pedigree

Issue 36 9.8 highest grade 1 of 5

Issue 38 9.8 highest graded white pages

 

COMICLINK AUCTION 8.25.2020
MARKET ANALYSIS ASM 1-50 SALES
ISSUE	GRADE	MARKET	FINAL SALE	DELTA	% G/L	CL COMM	NET SALE	NET GAIN	NET% G/L
AF15	7.5	120000	138779	18779	0.156	13878	124901	4901	0.041
AF15	4.5	29334	27010	-2324	-0.079	2701	24309	-5025	-0.171
AF15	3.0	18000	16001	-1999	-0.111	1600	14401	-3599	-0.200
1	7.5	26000	29250	3250	0.125	2925	26325	325	0.013
1	4.5	8700	10775	2075	0.239	1078	9698	998	0.115
2	8.0	6196	7887	1691	0.273	789	7098	902	0.146
3	9.0	8950	12250	3300	0.369	1225	11025	2075	0.232
4	9.0	9000	10777	1777	0.197	1078	9699	699	0.078
5	8.5	3420	3422	2	0.001	342	3080	-340	-0.099
6	9.4	10800	9752	-1048	-0.097	975	8777	-2023	-0.187
7	9.2	4500	5500	1000	0.222	550	4950	450	0.100
8	9.4	4200	3800	-400	-0.095	380	3420	-780	-0.186
9	9.2	6860	6376	-484	-0.071	638	5738	-1122	-0.163
10	9.4	2730	3355	625	0.229	336	3020	290	0.106
11	8.0	1925	2105	180	0.094	211	1895	-31	-0.016
12	9.4	4063	3968	-95	-0.023	397	3571	-492	-0.121
13	9.0	6600	6211	-389	-0.059	621	5590	-1010	-0.153
14	9.4	14400	18750	4350	0.302	1875	16875	2475	0.172
15	9.2	6300	8350	2050	0.325	835	7515	1215	0.193
16	9.6	6573	6889	316	0.048	689	6200	-373	-0.057
17	9.2	2400	2161	-239	-0.100	216	1945	-455	-0.190
18	9.8	16730	16750	20	0.001	1675	15075	-1655	-0.099
18	9.4	2032	2250	218	0.107	225	2025	-7	-0.003
19	9.6	2078	1900	-178	-0.086	190	1710	-368	-0.177
20	9.4	5655	8988	3333	0.589	899	8089	2434	0.430
21	9.4	2600	4351	1751	0.673	435	3916	1316	0.506
22	9.4	2500	2100	-400	-0.160	210	1890	-610	-0.244
23	9.2	1500	1620	120	0.080	162	1458	-42	-0.028
24	9.2	760	1125	365	0.480	113	1013	253	0.332
25	9.4	2200	1955	-245	-0.111	196	1760	-441	-0.200
25	9.2	1240	1325	85	-0.193	133	1193	-48	-0.038
26	9.6	2269	2351	82	0.009	235	2116	-153	-0.067
26	9.2	726	1128	402	0.554	113	1015	289	0.398
27	9.4	1920	1751	-169	-0.088	175	1576	-344	-0.179
28	9.2	5325	8050	2725	0.512	805	7245	1920	0.361
28	9.0	3300	4602	1302	0.395	460	4142	842	0.255
29	9.6	3107	2911	-196	-0.063	291	2620	-487	-0.157
30	9.2	660	757	97	0.147	76	681	21	0.032
31	9.2	2650	3200	550	0.208	320	2880	230	0.087
32	9.2	562	570	8	0.014	57	513	-49	-0.087
33	9.6	1535	1511	-24	-0.016	151	1360	-175	-0.114
34	9.6	1920	2401	481	0.251	240	2161	241	0.125
35	9.2	575	502	-73	-0.127	50	452	-123	-0.214
36	9.8	6573	10602	4029	0.613	1060	9542	2969	0.452
37	9.6	3840	3524	-316	-0.082	352	3172	-668	-0.174
37	9.2	930	951	21	0.023	95	856	-74	-0.080
38	9.8	2250	7510	5260	2.338	751	6759	4509	2.004
38	9.6	2250	1771	-479	-0.213	177	1594	-656	-0.292
39	9.6	7200	6968	-232	-0.032	697	6271	-929	-0.129
39	9.4	4100	3233	-867	-0.211	323	2910	-1190	-0.290
40	9.4	2640	3152	512	0.194	315	2837	197	0.075
41	9.4	3150	6100	2950	-0.062	610	5809	2659	0.844
42	9.4	1900	1975	75	0.051	198	1778	-123	0.011
43	9.2	600	650	50	0.083	65	585	-15	-0.025
44	9.2	820	884	64	0.078	88	796	-24	-0.030
45	9.6	1035	876	-159	-0.154	88	788	-247	-0.238
46	9.4	1110	1712	602	0.542	171	1541	431	0.388
49	9.4	500	550	50	0.100	55	495	-5	-0.010
50	9.2	5040	5101	61	0.012	510	4591	-449	-0.089
			461025			46103		8508	0.018

 

[theCapraAegagrus]

[romanheart]

I will concur that a lot of markets (as well as comics) are actually becoming seller markets during the pandemic. It might seem counter-intuitive but it seems to be the case.

Edited August 27, 2020 by romanheart

[Hollywood1892]

On 8/22/2020 at 7:10 AM, comicginger1789 said:

Agreed!

To all you Yanks, us Hosers are fine paying for it! You can track stuff and if we get but with customs, that’s on the buyer. It doesn’t even take that long anymore, couple weeks, same as usual.

I've noticed that sometimes key books in Canada sell for more then the same copy/grade in the U.S I especially remember a recent ASM 15 I ended up buying from My Comic Shop a full grade point higher then someone was selling here in Canada and I messaged the guy in Canada offering him what I deemed was FMV and he went into a tirade about my age and experience and if I'd ever bought a comic before, it was a very embarrassing experience for me...that being said I am happy with the book from My Comic Shop and I think I only paid $64 in duty charges which I was able to do online without slowing up the process...there are a few really good dealers in Canada but when they don't have what you want then buy American 

Edited August 28, 2020 by Hollywood1892