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Bitcoin Anybody use it?
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69 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, 1950's war comics said:

comics same thing as bit coin

I don't think they are equivalent.

My wife is not interested too much in the bitcoin I have but when she sees the amount of comics I have stored... then she gives me that look :taptaptap:

Edited by romanheart
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Just now, romanheart said:

I don't think they are equivalent.

My wife is not interested in much bitcoin I have but the see the amount of comics I have stored... and then she gives me that look :taptaptap:

see divorce thread for further planning........

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8 hours ago, ItsJustRyan said:

@delekkerste and @jaybuck43, your presence is requested. 

10 hours ago, wilbil said:

this thread needs up to date info from delekkerste, jaybuck and cc (where is cc anyway?)

they know a bit more than the average person about the subject.

So, my bitcoin journey began in 2016.  Of course I had heard about it years before that, but, had never given it much thought.  When I actually decided to do some real research into it, I found much to admire about its elegant design and its potential to protect against negative interest rates (which, unfortunately, all the pros know have a very good chance of being tried here despite the Fed's protestations to the contrary) and aggressive/unreasonable taxation, among other uses.  

I bought a bunch at about $600...and promptly sold it all around $1200. :tonofbricks:  I could have bought a new Ferrari with the profits I left on the table as it soared to $20K in 2017. :facepalm:  My reasoning at the time was, "why would I pay as much for a Bitcoin as I would for an ounce of gold?"  Plus, the crypto market was clearly caught in a bubble, and the hype was outpacing the reality by orders of magnitude.  I mean, remember how everyone from Amazon to Starbucks to McDonald's was supposed to start accepting Bitcoin?  Remember the people selling their houses and buying Bitcoin?  Instead, Bitcoin started to become LESS accepted as a method of payment, because, let's face it, it was inferior in almost every way possible back in 2017 - a Boardie here sent $21 in Bitcoin in December 2017 and was charged $32.24 in network fees for the privilege (from what I understand, it's gotten a lot faster and cheaper since then with the introduction of the Lightning Network payment protocol in 2018).

In any case, the use case for Bitcoin seemed to fade after the bubble year of 2017 and the bull case became all about Bitcoin as a digital store of value.  But, the crypto crash of 2018 quickly put that to bed - Bitcoin was down more than 73% that year, while the proprietary index I created in the Water Cooler's Bitcoin thread ("The Fatal Fifteen" basket of cryptocurrencies) was down more than 87% for the year. :whatthe: 

(continues)

Edited by delekkerste
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28 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Anyway, after becoming a Bitcoin bull in 2016 and early 2017, I became a crypto skeptic in 2017-19.  Bitcoin went from $20K at its Dec. 2017 peak to as low as $3136 at its Dec. 2018 low before ramping to $13851 in June 2019 and back down to $3914 at the worst of the recent asset price crash in March 2020.  

I started to take note again of Bitcoin late last year, as my disgust with the Federal Reserve started to boil over.  After capitulating to market pressure in late 2018 and ending their pathetic attempt to normalize their balance sheet, by the fall of 2019, with stresses growing in the financial system (overnight repo rates spiked to 10% and nobody could seem to figure out why), the Fed turned on the monetary spigots like a high-pressure fire hose in the fall, reversing the entire period of "quantitative tightening" in a matter of months.  Then, of course, with the coronacrash of Feb-March, they went into full Zimbabwe mode.  

Now, the old market hands like myself are very disturbed by all this and know that it's not going to end well.  But, what to do?  There's always gold, of course, but, many of us already had/have a gold allocation.  In this environment, people, like hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones, are taking another look at Bitcoin (PTJ recently disclosed that his funds were taking a low-single digit position in BTC).  And, whereas in 2017 I was appalled that BTC had traded up to, and then well past, the price of an ounce of gold, well, the fact that it's stayed above $3K post-crash (in fact, it's averaged almost $7500 since hitting its low in Dec. 2018), has gotten people more comfortable with the idea that this is not going back to zero and actually may have worth in a world where fiat currencies are being debased. 

And, if any monetary nerd wants to argue that quantitative easing is not printing money, please go away - the only difference between QE and printing money is intent (QE = Fed intends to unwind it at some point, a notion that has ZERO credibility given the experience of the past 18 months) and a middleman (currently the Treasury issues bonds into the marketplace and then the Fed buys them up, as opposed to the Fed buying them directly in outright monetization).  There is effectively no difference at this point.  They're printing trillions of dollars Zimbabwe-style, and the balance sheet will NEVER be reduced back to trend levels. 

Long story short:  the bull case for Bitcoin is that the time may be right for one or more alternative monetary system(s), and Bitcoin (whose supply is growing slowly until it reaches its fixed maximum limit) could be the hard currency of choice in a digital age.  And, maybe the market says, OK, there is a need for this with central banks lighting their currencies on fire, but, $166 billion in market cap is not enough to be useful to enough people, so, we've got to revalue this thing to a trillion or two or ten.  No guarantees of course that this will happen, but, unlike 3 years ago, I now can see the asymmetric bullish case for it and have been building a substantial investment position in it.  Not a recommendation or advice for anyone to do likewise; just detailing my thinking behind it. 2c 

Thank you, sir. I’m 100% in your camp. 

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2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

So, my bitcoin journey began in 2016.

 

2 hours ago, delekkerste said:
  6 hours ago, ItsJustRyan said:

@delekkerste and @jaybuck43, your presence is requested

i am a bit disappointed that you failed to recognize my description of you ( and jaybucks and cc) as the needed up to date info source for this thread, which triggered the ryan invitation and led to your subsequent response.

i have to assume my mentioning jaybucks and cc at the same level as you for level of knowledge, was a mistake.

i can see that now. ignore the person that shares credit with others in the same sentence giving you credit.

no vote for you, when you run for POTUS.

we are done. see if i suck up anymore to your knowledge ability. my nose goes only so far before the stench is realized.

i mean, all you had to do was quote my post? is that so hard? a little recognition for an orphan is beneath you?

note to self: check application process for timteam.

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3 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Anyway, after becoming a Bitcoin bull in 2016 and early 2017, I became a crypto skeptic in 2017-19.  Bitcoin went from $20K at its Dec. 2017 peak to as low as $3136 at its Dec. 2018 low before ramping to $13851 in June 2019 and back down to $3914 at the worst of the recent asset price crash in March 2020.  

I started to take note again of Bitcoin late last year, as my disgust with the Federal Reserve started to boil over.  After capitulating to market pressure in late 2018 and ending their pathetic attempt to normalize their balance sheet, by the fall of 2019, with stresses growing in the financial system (overnight repo rates spiked to 10% and nobody could seem to figure out why), the Fed turned on the monetary spigots like a high-pressure fire hose in the fall, reversing the entire period of "quantitative tightening" in a matter of months.  Then, of course, with the coronacrash of Feb-March, they went into full Zimbabwe mode.  

Now, the old market hands like myself are very disturbed by all this and know that it's not going to end well.  But, what to do?  There's always gold, of course, but, many of us already had/have a gold allocation.  In this environment, people, like hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones, are taking another look at Bitcoin (PTJ recently disclosed that his funds were taking a low-single digit position in BTC).  And, whereas in 2017 I was appalled that BTC had traded up to, and then well past, the price of an ounce of gold, well, the fact that it's stayed above $3K post-crash (in fact, it's averaged almost $7500 since hitting its low in Dec. 2018), has gotten people more comfortable with the idea that this is not going back to zero and actually may have worth in a world where fiat currencies are being debased. 

And, if any monetary nerd wants to argue that quantitative easing is not printing money, please go away - the only difference between QE and printing money is intent (QE = Fed intends to unwind it at some point, a notion that has ZERO credibility given the experience of the past 18 months) and a middleman (currently the Treasury issues bonds into the marketplace and then the Fed buys them up, as opposed to the Fed buying them directly in outright monetization).  There is effectively no difference at this point.  They're printing trillions of dollars Zimbabwe-style, and the balance sheet will NEVER be reduced back to trend levels. 

Long story short:  the bull case for Bitcoin is that the time may be right for one or more alternative monetary system(s), and Bitcoin (whose supply is growing slowly until it reaches its fixed maximum limit) could be the hard currency of choice in a digital age.  And, maybe the market says, OK, there is a need for this with central banks lighting their currencies on fire, but, $166 billion in market cap is not enough to be useful to enough people, so, we've got to revalue this thing to a trillion or two or ten.  No guarantees of course that this will happen, but, unlike 3 years ago, I now can see the asymmetric bullish case for it and have been building a substantial investment position in it.  Not a recommendation or advice for anyone to do likewise; just detailing my thinking behind it. 2c 

 So why not stocks?  Also what else are u putting money into other then bitcoin

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1 hour ago, wilbil said:

 

i am a bit disappointed that you failed to recognize my description of you ( and jaybucks and cc) as the needed up to date info source for this thread, which triggered the ryan invitation and led to your subsequent response.

i have to assume my mentioning jaybucks and cc at the same level as you for level of knowledge, was a mistake.

i can see that now. ignore the person that shares credit with others in the same sentence giving you credit.

no vote for you, when you run for POTUS.

we are done. see if i suck up anymore to your knowledge ability. my nose goes only so far before the stench is realized.

i mean, all you had to do was quote my post? is that so hard? a little recognition for an orphan is beneath you?

note to self: check application process for timteam.

Sorry for the slip of expediency/laziness. :foryou: 

 

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3 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

Okay I'll start.  Seems like a downturn may be starting... which makes sense because I bought into the market today

There’s no way to be sure, this market is totally irrational right now.  There’s good money to be made in the long term, but the short term is a roll of the dice from day to day.  A lot of the rise seems to be due to the momentum chasers pouring into tech like lemmings.  That rotation out will be ugly when it eventually happens.

The top names in REITs and financials are great bargains right now imho.

@delekkerste - props on a very pragmatic view of bitcoin.  I don’t see it as much more than a niche store of value in the long run, but I agree that it’s proven it’s staying power.

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2 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

There’s no way to be sure, this market is totally irrational right now.  There’s good money to be made in the long term, but the short term is a roll of the dice from day to day.  A lot of the rise seems to be due to the momentum chasers pouring into tech like lemmings.  That rotation out will be ugly when it eventually happens.

The top names in REITs and financials are great bargains right now imho.

@delekkerste - props on a very pragmatic view of bitcoin.  I don’t see it as much more than a niche store of value in the long run, but I agree that it’s proven it’s staying power.

What are some good REITS you recommend?   Something like VTI for index funds

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6 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

What are some good REITS you recommend?   Something like VTI for index funds

For starters, I’ll put out there that I don’t think the current crisis is going to have a material effect on real estate in the long term.  Lockdowns can only last so long, and we aren’t going to spend the rest of our lives 6 feet apart.  If nothing else, human nature isn’t going to allow a lifetime of social distancing.  

So with that said, these guys have been my top focus in the sector:

- Realty Income (O): no brainer, it is THE safe haven REIT.  Every time it drops under $50 I add a share or two.

- Simon Property Group (SPG): often cited as the best mall REIT around because of their focus on mixed use.  Off it’s high by almost 75%.  It’s more of a long term play (trying to stay at 20 shares max) because of obvious short term headwinds (COVID, the pending Taubman acquisition), but they’ve been in the game a long time.  Hard to believe they won’t weather the storm.

- SL Green (SLG): large portfolio of Manhattan real estate, monthly dividend payer, S&P 500 component.  But still scraping its 52 week low at present.  My take - it’s Manhattan.  NYC is the center of the business universe.  No amount of work at home is going to change that, demand will be there.

And here’s one thing I always keep in mind - real estate is finite, and real estate can be repurposed.

Also long Ventas (VTR) and WP Carey (WPC) common stock + CIM, GNL, and NLY preferred shares at present.

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5 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

For starters, I’ll put out there that I don’t think the current crisis is going to have a material effect on real estate in the long term.  Lockdowns can only last so long, and we aren’t going to spend the rest of our lives 6 feet apart.  If nothing else, human nature isn’t going to allow a lifetime of social distancing.  

So with that said, these guys have been my top focus in the sector:

- Realty Income (O): no brainer, it is THE safe haven REIT.  Every time it drops under $50 I add a share or two.

- Simon Property Group (SPG): often cited as the best mall REIT around because of their focus on mixed use.  Off it’s high by almost 75%.  It’s more of a long term play (trying to stay at 20 shares max) because of obvious short term headwinds (COVID, the pending Taubman acquisition), but they’ve been in the game a long time.  Hard to believe they won’t weather the storm.

- SL Green (SLG): large portfolio of Manhattan real estate, monthly dividend payer, S&P 500 component.  But still scraping its 52 week low at present.  My take - it’s Manhattan.  NYC is the center of the business universe.  No amount of work at home is going to change that, demand will be there.

And here’s one thing I always keep in mind - real estate is finite, and real estate can be repurposed.

Also long Ventas (VTR) and WP Carey (WPC) common stock + CIM, GNL, and NLY preferred shares at present.

Great advice.  I love O and SLG. What percentage of your portfolio do you keep REITS?    Also, I assume these are better in a tax shelter then a taxable brokerage? 

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