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ASM 300 heating up
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Started by jjonahjameson11,

1,679 posts in this topic

Jesse-Lee

Jesse-Lee

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, valiantman said:

But seriously - that comment was February 2010 and a CGC 9.0 Hulk #181 sold for $1,050 in December 2009.  Current value would be $5,500.

$1,000 would have bought 3 copies of CGC 5.0 Hulk #181 in 2010.  They are currently $2,500 each... $7,500 total.

Which also calls to question the idea that highest grade is always better - I see a lot of books that see higher overall percentage returns in mid- to mid-high grades. Of course hindsight is 20/20, but I personally like to spread my money across more books in a presentable grade than all in one high-grade basket because of that.

Edited by Jesse-Lee
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valiantman

valiantman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jesse-Lee said:

Which also calls to question the idea that highest grade is always better - I see a lot of books that see higher overall percentage returns in mid- to mid-high grades. Of course hindsight is 20/20, but I personally like to spread my money across more books in a presentable grade than all in one basket because of that.

It's pretty clear that mid-grades (6.0 to 8.0) are a "sweet spot" when the high grades get too expensive.  When the demand is high enough to push the value of CGC 9.8 beyond the budget of collectors, there are many who don't "settle" for a (still expensive) 9.6, but just want a "nice copy" to fill the hole in their collection.  In those cases, you see CGC 9.8s go from $1,000 to $2,500... but CGC 8.0s can go from $60 to $300.  You'll notice the CGC 8.0s double the profit percentage of the CGC 9.8s in that scenario.

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Hollywood1892

Hollywood1892

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Jesse-Lee said:

Not to keep hammering home the IH 181 comparisons, but I did find this post from 2010 (from these forums) interesting:

In 2010, $1,000 would have probably gotten you a VF or 8.0 copy of IH 181. FMV on that copy today - 10 years later - is more than 4x that at about $4,300. That's if you're able to get a copy at dead-on current GoCollect FMV (which, if their FMVs of ASM 300 is any indication, is spotty at best). My point is that this same argument is always made about key books like this that start to catch fire.

I wouldnt listen to Comic Connoisseur anyways

lol

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Jeffro.

Jeffro.

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, valiantman said:
1 hour ago, Jesse-Lee said:
On 2/5/2010 at 10:36 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:
TheDanimal said:
I thin Hulk 181 is a great book to own. Maybe common but definitely not overrated! It's an important book IMO and great cover!

yep but if you buy one copy today for a thousand dollars, the odds are it will still be worth a thousand dollars 5 years from now, the profit for this book is 9.6 and up.

Same thing can be said for Giant Size X-men 1 and X-men 94, you can spend your grand on them now and only expect that same grand back after holding them for the next 5 years. They are great books but the profit has sailed on these if now bought at current market prices.

In 2010, $1,000 would have probably gotten you a VF or 8.0 copy of IH 181. FMV on that copy today - 10 years later - is more than 4x that at about $4,300. That's if you're able to get a copy at dead-on current GoCollect FMV (which, if their FMVs of ASM 300 is any indication, is spotty at best). My point is that this same argument is always made about key books like this that start to catch fire.

So, never take comic investment advice from @ComicConnoisseur ... got it! lol

Not to mention TheDanimal is a Hall of Shame member. He was another real piece of work

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Crushingame

Crushingame

Posted
Posted (edited)

Speaking of 23,000 copies, there really aren’t that many 9.8’s considering the numbers.  
 

To be honest, the grades seem to be closely spread out up til about the 8.5  grades.

So don’t let 23,000+ copies scare ya’. There’s roughly only 4,000 copies between 9.6-9.8. That’s really a small percentage based on the amount of collectors who have and still want this book in high grade.

Edited by Crushingame
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valiantman

valiantman

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Crushingame said:

Speaking of 23,000 copies, there really aren’t that many 9.8’s considering the numbers.  
 

To be honest, the grades seem to be closely spread out up til about the 8.5  grades.

Until recently, it wasn't worth the cost of CGC grading to submit 8.5 and below.  It's very likely that the average copy of ASM #300 in existence is about a 6.0, but they haven't been submitted to CGC yet.

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astrometric

astrometric

Posted
Posted

If you just look at that aggregate number of 23,000+ slabbed, it is misleading. You have to give it context. From the perspective of 9.8 SS slabs, only 1.2% exist of that entire total float. I have seen stocks go the moon with way bigger populations than that.

1.2% is a tiny number. If you extrapolate further how many are signed by SL alone and then SL +TM, that number dwindles even much lower. Now imagine during a price uptrend like this, not enough supply comes to market, it just exacerbates the momentum. 

I just looked on CL, CC, Pedigree, WW etc and the only SS 9.8 SL/TM I can locate is on eBay. One with a $9,999 BIN and one with a $25K BIN/BO. So in reality is there one that is buyable at this very moment; no. Years ago, different supply scenario; you could bring up eBay on your browser any day of the week and find yourself an SL/TM 9.8 SS for $2Kish.  The supply has totally dried up. None.

Kind of reminds me when SW #1 CGC 9.8 sky rocketed to multi thousand $$ price points. You had all you could eat on that one for years and years// tons of 9.8 slabs all over the web on any comic site any day of the week including Sundays in the $500-$700 rang via bidding style auctions, exchange marketplace, everywhere multiples every month. Then one day just all of sudden, the supply somehow disappeared and the price just took off to a different planet. 

 

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WolverineX

WolverineX

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Crushingame said:

Speaking of 23,000 copies, there really aren’t that many 9.8’s considering the numbers.  
 

To be honest, the grades seem to be closely spread out up til about the 8.5  grades.

So don’t let 23,000+ copies scare ya’. There’s roughly only 4,000 copies between 9.6-9.8. That’s really a small percentage based on the amount of collectors who have and still want this book in high grade.

23,000+  are slabbed by CGC only don't forget about the other companies... there are way more that are raw copies plus Slabs by CGC's competitors out there,  and 4,000 is a ton  of NM+ slabs only by CGC . 

There will be more 9.8s as more raws get slabbed.

Edited by Wolverinex
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alexgross.com

alexgross.com

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, valiantman said:

It's pretty clear that mid-grades (6.0 to 8.0) are a "sweet spot" when the high grades get too expensive.  When the demand is high enough to push the value of CGC 9.8 beyond the budget of collectors, there are many who don't "settle" for a (still expensive) 9.6, but just want a "nice copy" to fill the hole in their collection.  In those cases, you see CGC 9.8s go from $1,000 to $2,500... but CGC 8.0s can go from $60 to $300.  You'll notice the CGC 8.0s double the profit percentage of the CGC 9.8s in that scenario.

along these lines, i think that asm300 in 9.4 and 9.6 will be a sweet spot now that 9.8 are not affordable for so many folks. i would never have considered anything less than a 9.8 when they were 2k or under, but now i certainly would. and i can techinically afford the 9.8. i expect prices for 9.6 and 9.4 to grow strongly as they have been. it's easy for a $750 book to become a $1200 or $1500 book. of course i've seen 5k books go to almost 10k too (jim83 5.0, TOS39 5.0) over the last 6 years too. but for folks that need to stay under 2k, which are alot of folks, the 9.4 and 9.6 are the place to be now. 

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Crushingame

Crushingame

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

Big sale for a cgc 9.4 blue label direct with white pages: $1350!  Sure, it’s an outlier...until it isn’t?

I saw that. 😳  I don’t think it’s an outlier based off the 9.6 and 9.8 prices lately. We shall see.

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ygogolak

ygogolak

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Jesse-Lee said:

Well, a 2.5 sold for $240 yesterday, and a 5.0 PLOD went for $350. So who knows with this book where people's value line is. If a 2.5 is selling at $240 and the GC FMV on a 7.0 is $350, that's a lot of tight price compacting in between.

Where at? Not seeing it on the bay or GPA.

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