ASM 300 heating up 8 8

[MetalPSI]

Johnny Bravo.

Pork Belly was never so entertaining 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 1/28/2021 at 8:32 PM, D2 said:

But ASM was a SMASH hit. How many printed copies? 500,000? More? A million? Regardless, there has to be just long boxes of these books just sitting around, ungraded still. 
 

I think its far less than that...closer to 300,000 copies.  Average sales for ASM for that year was approximately 265,000 copies per issue so I can see retailers bumping their order by 10-15% for ASM 300.

[Lazyboy]

On 1/28/2021 at 7:32 PM, D2 said:

But ASM was a SMASH hit. How many printed copies? 500,000? More? A million? Regardless, there has to be just long boxes of these books just sitting around, ungraded still. 

ASM was a popular title. Probably close to 500,000 printed for 300, but it's highly unlikely they (almost) all still exist since it wasn't a super-hot sellout like 252 or 361. But yes, like most comics, there are tons of unseen/unknown copies out there sitting in collections.

[bluehorseshoe]

On 1/28/2021 at 8:32 PM, D2 said:

 

But ASM was a SMASH hit. How many printed copies? 500,000? More? A million? Regardless, there has to be just long boxes of these books just sitting around, ungraded still. 
 

 

I just dont understand why people are still believe this.  It would be one thing if there was actual, verifiable proof of this, but there is not.  It has certainly occurred in the past (I remember the picture of the long box of Ms. Marvel #1s that made the rounds on these boards a few years ago), but I just don't get how this factors into a market analysis of this book.

[D2]

On 1/28/2021 at 6:13 PM, valiantman said:

Just looking at CGC Universal CGC 9.8

The first 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 6 years - June 2006

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 2.5 years - March 2009

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 2 years - March 2011

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 2.2 years - May 2013

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 1.3 years - September 2014

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 1.1 years - October 2015

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 1.7 years - June 2017

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 1.1 years - July 2018

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 7 months - February 2019

The next 100 CGC 9.8s for ASM #300 took 10 months - December 2019 - which ended at 1,010 copies.

There are currently 1,072 CGC 9.8 ASM #300 after 13 months (62 in the past 13 months)

 

 

38 minutes ago, bluehorseshoe said:

I just dont understand why people are still believe this.  It would be one thing if there was actual, verifiable proof of this, but there is not.  It has certainly occurred in the past (I remember the picture of the long box of Ms. Marvel #1s that made the rounds on these boards a few years ago), but I just don't get how this factors into a market analysis of this book.

Because of this: see above

[jjonahjameson11]

22 minutes ago, D2 said:

 

Because of this: see above

I think a lot of that is due to pressing, and not so much due to raw 9.8's in the wild

[bluehorseshoe]

43 minutes ago, D2 said:

 

Because of this: see above

yeah I saw that too, but those statistics certainly don't create some sort of analogy that supports your statement, in fact, it would more than likely mean all of the long boxes of ASM 300 you think are out there are there anymore...why? Because now they are graded.  I'm not asking for alot here, just something that would suggest that what you think is true is actually true.

[kimik]

I have not seen longs of ASM 300 personally since the mid 00s, but I have seen short box type stacks in a couple of collections I lost out on over the past few years. There are still a ton sitting raw in collections, and in storage with long time LCSs, but those will likely be leaked out slowly. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by kimik

[D2]

2 hours ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

I think a lot of that is due to pressing, and not so much due to raw 9.8's in the wild

that's true. oddly enough also, of all books, i've seen a lot of questionable 9.8 300s. To my recent memory, a shop owner had 5 copies, 3 of which were ss, and of those 5, i'd say 3 of them, I was surprised were 9.8s. 1 of those 3 should have been a 9.0 imo. But i digress... 

 

2 hours ago, bluehorseshoe said:

yeah I saw that too, but those statistics certainly don't create some sort of analogy that supports your statement, in fact, it would more than likely mean all of the long boxes of ASM 300 you think are out there are there anymore...why? Because now they are graded.  I'm not asking for alot here, just something that would suggest that what you think is true is actually true.

 

Yeah I do agree with you. I know what you are saying. Which was kind of where my head was going on wondering how many copies were printed. I grew up with X-Men 1, 8 million copies.... but those sales figures escalated quickly. So I couldn't even give a safe number on how many raws would be out there, but I wondered possibly a million more.

If I had to take a guess, I say there would probably be about 500 or so more 9.8s waiting to be found. total.

[kimik]

2 hours ago, D2 said:

that's true. oddly enough also, of all books, i've seen a lot of questionable 9.8 300s. To my recent memory, a shop owner had 5 copies, 3 of which were ss, and of those 5, i'd say 3 of them, I was surprised were 9.8s. 1 of those 3 should have been a 9.0 imo. But i digress... 

 

 

Yeah I do agree with you. I know what you are saying. Which was kind of where my head was going on wondering how many copies were printed. I grew up with X-Men 1, 8 million copies.... but those sales figures escalated quickly. So I couldn't even give a safe number on how many raws would be out there, but I wondered possibly a million more.

If I had to take a guess, I say there would probably be about 500 or so more 9.8s waiting to be found. total.

That estimate of 500 total waiting to be found is too low IMHO. There are plenty of collections with mulitple copies still out there in bags/boards or mylars that will only be slabbed when the original owners sell them off. And there are plenty of copies tucked away in storage for long running LCSs and/or former store owners that are still sitting on their backstock - as long as they were stored properly there will be more there. 

[Chaos_in_Canada]

10 minutes ago, kimik said:

That estimate of 500 total waiting to be found is too low IMHO. There are plenty of collections with mulitple copies still out there in bags/boards or mylars that will only be slabbed when the original owners sell them off. And there are plenty of copies tucked away in storage for long running LCSs and/or former store owners that are still sitting on their backstock - as long as they were stored properly there will be more there. 

Multiple copies in 8.5s...9.2s!

[D2]

1 hour ago, kimik said:

That estimate of 500 total waiting to be found is too low IMHO. There are plenty of collections with mulitple copies still out there in bags/boards or mylars that will only be slabbed when the original owners sell them off. And there are plenty of copies tucked away in storage for long running LCSs and/or former store owners that are still sitting on their backstock - as long as they were stored properly there will be more there. 

@Chaos_in_Canada that made me laugh. Too true. 
 

I also think 500 may be a bit low, but I feel like it might be a conservative guarantee figure. I dunno? I have no idea how many copies could exist. I wish someone had a better inside track than us. 
 

I keep trying to figure out a way to make this all make sense and it’s impossible.

I look for a book comparison, and I get nowhere.

Either no one knows really how many copies of a book existed back then, or the CGC submission counts are way out of whack.

The Dark Knight Returns 1, apparently, sold 250,000 issues. Only 4,000 submissions exist.

Spawn, a million copies of issue 1? Is that what they say? Comichron says 250,000 sold... so I don’t know. 16,500 CGC submissions.

Here is a modern grail book, Saga, sold 38,000 copies. Of those 38,000 people submitted 4,250 graded copies. 11% of all copies sold, or basically 1 out of 10 books, got graded. 
 

So I have no idea what would be a good apples to apples comparison.

300 has 24,250 graded copies. So if there were 350,000 sold, that only makes up for 6%. 
 

It just doesn’t work. 
I think the most valid chart is what @valiantman posted, which highlights the acceleration of graded 9.8 copies. This would indicate that there would eventually be a downward slope. Based on that alone, I felt thinking 500 9.8s was a fair assessment. IF the curve happened now. 

[kimik]

1 hour ago, Chaos_in_Canada said:

Multiple copies in 8.5s...9.2s!

No. The one collection with the short box were uncirculated copies that were bagged and boarded by the collector back in the day. There were some definite 9.8s in the mix based on what I saw in hand. 

[kimik]

42 minutes ago, D2 said:

@Chaos_in_Canada that made me laugh. Too true. 
 

I also think 500 may be a bit low, but I feel like it might be a conservative guarantee figure. I dunno? I have no idea how many copies could exist. I wish someone had a better inside track than us. 
 

I keep trying to figure out a way to make this all make sense and it’s impossible.

I look for a book comparison, and I get nowhere.

Either no one knows really how many copies of a book existed back then, or the CGC submission counts are way out of whack.

The Dark Knight Returns 1, apparently, sold 250,000 issues. Only 4,000 submissions exist.

Spawn, a million copies of issue 1? Is that what they say? Comichron says 250,000 sold... so I don’t know. 16,500 CGC submissions.

Here is a modern grail book, Saga, sold 38,000 copies. Of those 38,000 people submitted 4,250 graded copies. 11% of all copies sold, or basically 1 out of 10 books, got graded. 
 

So I have no idea what would be a good apples to apples comparison.

300 has 24,250 graded copies. So if there were 350,000 sold, that only makes up for 6%. 
 

It just doesn’t work. 
I think the most valid chart is what @valiantman posted, which highlights the acceleration of graded 9.8 copies. This would indicate that there would eventually be a downward slope. Based on that alone, I felt thinking 500 9.8s was a fair assessment. IF the curve happened now. 

There are tons of collections with HG raw copies that have not yet surfaced. That being said, as long as demand remains high it does not matter if 5000 9.8s show up. People will pay for them.

[D2]

11 minutes ago, kimik said:

There are tons of collections with HG raw copies that have not yet surfaced. That being said, as long as demand remains high it does not matter if 5000 9.8s show up. People will pay for them.

I guess...

Do you really care that much about Venom?

Edited February 1, 2021 by D2

[jjonahjameson11]

36 minutes ago, D2 said:

I guess...

Do you really care that much about Venom?

Yes, arguably the most important character of the 80’s from the Big Two

[BigLeagueCHEW]

Here is a collection that surfaced in 2019, 7 ASM 300’s alone.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by BigLeagueCHEW

[BigLeagueCHEW]

3 hours ago, kimik said:

There are tons of collections with HG raw copies that have not yet surfaced. That being said, as long as demand remains high it does not matter if 5000 9.8s show up. People will pay for them.

I haven’t bothered to buy one yet, I don’t think it’s worth 5K. Even if I decided to, there is always one listed somewhere. It’s not rare.

[D2]

9 minutes ago, BigLeagueCHEW said:

I haven’t bothered to buy one yet, I don’t think it’s worth 5K. Even if I decided to, there is always one listed somewhere. It’s not rare.

That’s kind of how I feel too. But that isn’t exclusive to 300... other books I’ve thought about buying, I’m now frequently looking at the census to see how many there are.

[Xenosmilus]

1 hour ago, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Here is a collection that surfaced in 2019, 7 ASM 300’s alone.

 

Ugh, I could be wrong but I think they used cbcs to grade a lot of them? Good way to tank your investment...

Edited February 2, 2021 by Xenosmilus