Why is a 9.8 copy of Batman Adventures #12 so extreme expensive? 1 1

[pxpusher]

I started a small comic collection last year with some recent books and covers I really like. At some point I came across this book:

Batman Adventures #12
1st appearance of Harley Quinn

I do like the cover and thought: Why not add it to my collection. So I started looking for it and was very surprised: 9.8 graded books go for 1,000-1,200 USD and 9.6 for around 650 USD at the moment.

Now, you see I’m fairly new to the comics market but I thought: Maybe it’s about this 1st appearance thing.

Then I took a look at the census: Currently there are 844 copies with 9.8 and 1,308 with 9.6 and counting. Most of the books listed in the last months on eBay are graded within the last year. So it seems more books in very good quality are available.

Can someone explain, what makes this issue so super expensive even so there are sooooo many graded copies?

Thank you.

[Mercury Man]

Supply vs. Demand.   

[pxpusher]

10 hours ago, Mercury Man said:

Supply vs. Demand.   

Hm, that simple. But if there are more and more copies coming to the market with high grades, why not wait and buy for less. But I guess it’s the concern that also all the held back books might not meet the demand.

9 hours ago, Agent666 said:

See also: ASM #300, IH #181, etc.

That ASM #300 is crazy. Over 20k graded copies. But it absolutely supports the “Supply vs. Demand” claim. I never thought that the collectors market is that huge for key issues.

Thank you both.

I guess I’ll hold onto my two Dective Comics 1000 Alex Ross Variants, signed and graded, a little longer then.

[oldmilwaukee6er]

"844 copies with 9.8 and 1,308 with 9.6 and counting"

A few things are working here (obv Harley is a very popular character)... namely that for comics, condition and price are intimately connected (^ condition, ^ worth)

• Most all collectors view 9.8 as 'investment grade' and for many Modern Age collector-investors it is 9.8 or bust
• The math (above): Of 2150+ copies that looked near perfect*, nearly 0 imperceptible defects to the average eye, <40% of those submissions earned investment grade. Which means in practice... if you were to buy raw off eBay... you would have to buy ~3 NM/MT copies with nearly 0 imperceptible defects to the average eye, spend the money to ship / insure / certify them to earn one 9.8. I like to say things like "I can buy 5 books advertised at NM on eBay before I get one that is actually NM" OR "If you have ten copies of a new comic on the rack and you select THE BEST of the ten copies, you are only guaranteed a 9.6."
• This has generally led to a situtation where IF a modern raw NM/MT comic is $X, THEN a CGC 9.2 is 0.5-1.0 * $X, a 9.4 is 1.0-1.5 * $X, a 9.6 is 1.5-3.0 * $X, and a 9.8 is 3.0-5.0 * $X. 

Regardless off how the math actually works in any one case, after some observation you can begin to make your own conclusions.

And there is a website that tracks movement on CGC books: GPAnalysis. It can be a valuable service to know how these prices compare to 9 mos ago, a year, 5 years. 

I would hypothesize that after her latest box office performance, Harley is perhaps trending down?  

"if there are more and more copies coming to the market with high grades, why not wait and buy for less. But I guess it’s the concern that also all the held back books might not meet the demand."

*You are right to view this as 'a lot' of copies. It is. It reflects both her popularity and the goldrush to grade to reflect demand from Suicide Squad. It does not mean another 2000+ copies are forthcoming soon or over time (they may not make the grade as you say or oodles of collectors still go for raw). This (in part) and the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) represent part of the illogical side of the market (incl non-comic buyer behavior, movie hype, speculator pressure, artibrage in distribution, psychology of pricing). There is no guarantee that more copies are available, collectors get FOMO, and prices rise. Yes they can fall, and to the extent you can resist FOMO it will benefit your collecting.  

Edited June 21, 2020 by oldmilwaukee6er

[Mercury Man]

4 hours ago, pxpusher said:

Hm, that simple. But if there are more and more copies coming to the market with high grades, why not wait and buy for less. But I guess it’s the concern that also all the held back books might not meet the demand.

Pull out a 1980's comic, and look at some of the ads, where you can buy an ASM#1 or X-Men#1 (or many Silver Age keys) for several hundred dollars.  Now they go for several thousand.  And this is with more of those comics comics to market.  Will the same hold true for Batman Adventures?   Who knows.  Right now there are enough people willing to pay the prices you mentioned.  Supply vs. Demand. 

[Math Teacher]

Can I contribute by mentioning Supply versus Demand?

[comicginger1789]

Number of factors really:

1. First appearance of a character everyone born since she appeared seems to gravitate towards

2. While a lot of 9.8s exist, it’s still hard to find because it was based off a cartoon and more marketed for kids back in the early 90s

3. Print run is not extremely high.

4. The demand is there

Personally I don’t get why anyone NEEDS a 9.8 copy when in all reality a solid 8.0-8.5 looks just as great and is a huge fraction of the price.

[Buzzetta]

Here is why... 

The book was at one point, dollar bin fodder the same way that Ultimate Fallout 4 was.

Harley Quin made her comic debut in BM Adventures 12 which was marketed toward kids.  Adults were not paying a lot of attention to the book.  The book eventually was thrown in dollar bins which is why high grade copies are not usually seen as often.  The character pops and people gravitate toward the comic release. 

To me?  I've never regarded the book as her first appearance.  I am still trying to find the pencils or a full animation cel from her first appearance in the cartoon, "Joker's Favor" which aired a year before BM Adventures 12.   Once I started to look for cels or pencils from that episode I have never seen a single one on the market. 

[vheflin]

even I like Harley Quinn and I hate everything in the past 30 years

efficient linework on that cover isn't hurting it either

[evilskip]

I bought the dollar comic copy that came out earlier this year. I'm happy with that. But even one of those sold earlier this month on ebay for $62.

[Myowncollector]

People have too much $ They will pay for just about anything. A female joker, female spiderman, female wolverine. Just take any popular character and change the race or gender and people will say take my money. 

[Keys_Collector]

16 hours ago, Myowncollector said:

People have too much $ They will pay for just about anything. A female joker, female spiderman, female wolverine. Just take any popular character and change the race or gender and people will say take my money. 

Or maybe it has to do with a character having more appeal to them as a different race/gender?

[Myowncollector]

16 minutes ago, Agent666 said:

Yup. Never underestimate the power of the fanboy.

It's just me. Grumpy old man. I been reading hulk for 40 some years. So I don't get too excited just because they made him Asian, immortal, yellow, or give him wolverine claws. I have or had the 1st appearances of many original characters so these flavor of the week things I can care less. Just bought a collection, hq x23 9.6 maybe 9.8 in it. No desire to keep them. Nyx all new wolverine are good reads. Still just a knock off unoriginal character. If people want to buy these modern books good. Nothing wrong with it and I am glad. Modern is where it is at, no doubt it's hot. I will stay in gold silver bronze. Can't believe the awesome deals I get while people are paying $40 because the hulk is yellow. 

[Keys_Collector]

1 hour ago, Agent666 said:

As whacking material?

Is this a previously banned member or just a new troll?

[Red_Hood]

BA #12 was basically a $250.00 book in 9.8 until about 2 years before the garbage Suicide Squad movie was coming out.  I recall a boardie had an agenda along the lines of the same effect of "Pump and Dump" because he had a few CGC 9.8 copies and so he started a thread in copper age to talk about how important the character and book were.  Fast forward a few months later and the sheep started drinking the Kool-Aid hard and buying into the reasoning and speculators and people with FOMO were driving the prices to ridiculous levels to where it sits now in elevated pricing levels.  Not so high as a few years ago but still way over priced for that book.

Give that boardie credit... his plan worked and he dumped that overpriced POS a few times over.

[Ryan.]

22 minutes ago, Red_Hood said:

BA #12 was basically a $250.00 book in 9.8 until about 2 years before the garbage Suicide Squad movie was coming out.  I recall a boardie had an agenda along the lines of the same effect of "Pump and Dump" because he had a few CGC 9.8 copies and so he started a thread in copper age to talk about how important the character and book were.  Fast forward a few months later and the sheep started drinking the Kool-Aid hard and buying into the reasoning and speculators and people with FOMO were driving the prices to ridiculous levels to where it sits now in elevated pricing levels.  Not so high as a few years ago but still way over priced for that book.

Give that boardie credit... his plan worked and he dumped that overpriced POS a few times over.

Weird. I was literally just reminiscing about this like a week ago. 

[rumrunner71]

I like Harley, too, but my sense with this one is that it's speculator bump, like Red_Hood suggested. For BA 12, it's been pricey for a bit, but it went nuts when the movie started filming and has continued since, I think with the continued interest in movies with Harley. We saw the same thing with other movie/series speculators. Umbrella Academy FCBD went nuts in early 2019, and then cooled down as some of the hype went away (and as people rushed to slab their copies.) I think BA 12 may do the same. Harley, in my mind, has some more staying power than UA, for some of the reasons other folks said (spent more time in dollar bins, bought for kids, etc.) But my impression is that the huge price increase may be speculator hype.

Edited June 23, 2020 by rumrunner71

[rumrunner71]

36 minutes ago, Red_Hood said:

BA #12 was basically a $250.00 book in 9.8 until about 2 years before the garbage Suicide Squad movie was coming out.  I recall a boardie had an agenda along the lines of the same effect of "Pump and Dump" because he had a few CGC 9.8 copies and so he started a thread in copper age to talk about how important the character and book were.  Fast forward a few months later and the sheep started drinking the Kool-Aid hard and buying into the reasoning and speculators and people with FOMO were driving the prices to ridiculous levels to where it sits now in elevated pricing levels.  Not so high as a few years ago but still way over priced for that book.

Give that boardie credit... his plan worked and he dumped that overpriced POS a few times over.

This reminds me, I have to get that thread going about how significant the Phalanx Covenant x-over was...

[Myowncollector]

2 hours ago, Agent666 said:

Apparently I'm grumpier than you. After 20 years I quit reading Hulk when they ruined World War Hulk and restarted a #1 with that stupidass Red Hulk with horrible art by Ed McGuiness and terrible stories by Jeph Loeb.

I stopped reading everything in the early 90s. It was easy with only 1 xmen, 1 hulk, just reading amazing spiderman etc. 100 titles a month just was too much. Not enough good artist to go around. And life got in the way. And the price. Under a buck I was good with. After that it got my mind thinking I could spend my money on better things. I still read comics though. Mainly years after they came out when they are part of a collection I pick up. Some great stuff, lobdell on titans and red hood. Johns green lantern Justice League. Or 1st appearances issues. Getting back into new book speculation so will be back reading 1st appearances. If you love harley and want to drop $500 or $1400 on her, go for it. Good for you. But her 1st appearance is in a cartoon. Just a female joker. Nothing wrong with liking her. Just personally with that kind of $ I can buy a way older book with a actual 1st Appearance and the character will be more original. Also has room to increase in value by multiples in some instances. 

[comicginger1789]

I'd love to have a CGC 9.8 Batman Adventures #12....so I could sell it for something much cooler.