RallyRd - that old idea about partial ownership of comics is a reality (updated July 21, 2021) 6 6

[ygogolak]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

Yes - there was an article or interview somewhere that stated that a full-time exchange would have different laws and regulations than the membership/organization of companies. RallyRd assets are managed by companies which may change ownership/membership once a month (I don't know if that's the limit or if that's a choice), rather than an exchange which would allow for 24/7 trading.

Gotcha, well I'm busy that day. So probably not for me.

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, ygogolak said:

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Yes - there was an article or interview somewhere that stated that a full-time exchange would have different laws and regulations than the membership/organization of companies. RallyRd assets are managed by companies which may change ownership/membership once a month (I don't know if that's the limit or if that's a choice), rather than an exchange which would allow for 24/7 trading.

Gotcha, well I'm busy that day. So probably not for me.

Understandable.  If these items (comics, cars, cards, books, bats, video games) are actually "good investments" then ownership (fractional or whole) implies a timeframe longer than weeks.  Once a month is probably too frequent, from that standpoint.

[ygogolak]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Understandable.  If these items (comics, cars, cards, books, bats, video games) are actually "good investments" then ownership (fractional or whole) implies a timeframe longer than weeks.  Once a month is probably too frequent, from that standpoint.

Not necessarily. People buy and sell stocks daily. Rally Rd equates it to the same thing in their FAQ's.

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, ygogolak said:

3 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Understandable.  If these items (comics, cars, cards, books, bats, video games) are actually "good investments" then ownership (fractional or whole) implies a timeframe longer than weeks.  Once a month is probably too frequent, from that standpoint.

Not necessarily. People buy and sell stocks daily. Rally Rd equates it to the same thing in their FAQ's

If a 24/7 exchange is ever created, then ownership for minutes would be possible, but until then it is a 30 day minimum.

[Gatsby77]

On 1/19/2021 at 1:06 PM, miraclemet said:

so the stock bidders determine the value of the book? Not any actual book transactions? I know some of these fractional sales companies use GoCollect and other market analytic sites... RallyRd uses the bidders? 

It's worse than that.

The fine print for Rally Rd. indicates the share owners have no actual claim to the underlying book itself. You're trading based on the speculative share price only.

With the average 30% mark-up, I truly don't understand why people don't just save to buy the books themselves, or - you know - buy it on a credit card and pay it off over time.

As I (and others) have noted, overpaying by 30% is the same whether you pay $13 for a $10 book or $130,000 for a $100,000 book.

[D84]

1 hour ago, Gatsby77 said:

It's worse than that.

The fine print for Rally Rd. indicates the share owners have no actual claim to the underlying book itself. You're trading based on the speculative share price only.

With the average 30% mark-up, I truly don't understand why people don't just save to buy the books themselves, or - you know - buy it on a credit card and pay it off over time.

As I (and others) have noted, overpaying by 30% is the same whether you pay $13 for a $10 book or $130,000 for a $100,000 book.

But using logic and reason will destroy the RallyRD business model. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

2 hours ago, D84 said:

But using logic and reason will destroy the RallyRD business model. 

In a logical and reasonable world this would and should be the case, unfortunately there is a sucker born every minute. 

[ygogolak]

What am I missing here? This is valued at double it's current market value. 35 cent variant.

[shadroch]

On 1/21/2021 at 7:13 AM, Gatsby77 said:

It's worse than that.

The fine print for Rally Rd. indicates the share owners have no actual claim to the underlying book itself. You're trading based on the speculative share price only.

With the average 30% mark-up, I truly don't understand why people don't just save to buy the books themselves, or - you know - buy it on a credit card and pay it off over time.

As I (and others) have noted, overpaying by 30% is the same whether you pay $13 for a $10 book or $130,000 for a $100,000 book.

So how long will it take you to save for the JIM 82 in question? By the time you save that 125K, the book will be worth 200K.

[Shrevvy]

7 hours ago, ygogolak said:

What am I missing here? This is valued at double it's current market value. 35 cent variant.

Is that what it will start trading at on 1/28? Up $8k/70% from IPO or last trade? I couldn't find it on the site and am not interested in signing up or downloading the app.

If so, it would seem that the trading is predicting what the market value is today. I don't traffic in Star Wars books, but a glance at GPA tells they have moved big since November. Last 35 cent CGC 9.0 sold for $10,750 in Nov. I assume that is where you get your current market value mentioned above? Seems to me that I would buy a bunch of Star Wars #1 at November prices if I could. Eyeballing CGC 9.8, 9.6, 9.4 (regular cover price) shows they have doubled or near doubled from November to the latest Jan sale. Not perfect, but directionally the price move sure seems correct. 

[shadroch]

It looks like the IPO was $1.70 a share. Lets see how many cash out and how many hold.

[ygogolak]

11 hours ago, Shrevvy said:

Is that what it will start trading at on 1/28? Up $8k/70% from IPO or last trade? I couldn't find it on the site and am not interested in signing up or downloading the app.

If so, it would seem that the trading is predicting what the market value is today. I don't traffic in Star Wars books, but a glance at GPA tells they have moved big since November. Last 35 cent CGC 9.0 sold for $10,750 in Nov. I assume that is where you get your current market value mentioned above? Seems to me that I would buy a bunch of Star Wars #1 at November prices if I could. Eyeballing CGC 9.8, 9.6, 9.4 (regular cover price) shows they have doubled or near doubled from November to the latest Jan sale. Not perfect, but directionally the price move sure seems correct. 

I see what you're saying, but with the way that this works they are just making up a price as their own "valuation". 35 cents variants are not sold very often looking at GPA. A 7.0 sold for $5,300 in December, no previous sales. That is the most recent sale.

[valiantman]

On 1/26/2021 at 12:24 AM, shadroch said:

It looks like the IPO was $1.70 a share. Lets see how many cash out and how many hold.

The IPO (July 2020) was $1 per share, 12,000 shares, with a limit of 20 shares.  RallyRd used this book as a "start here" item.  They've done a few of those.

There has been one trading day (November 2020) on the 9.0 SW #1 35-cent since the IPO and on that day the bids/asks balanced at $1.70 per share - so that was the final amount.

On Thursday, the bids/asks will be whatever dollar amount anyone chooses, but the "last price" was $1.70, so that is shown in the graphic.

If all the bids are $1 and all the asks are $1, it would fall back to $1/share.  If there are bids and asks at $2/share, it could go to $2/share.  We'll see where it balances at the end of trading Thursday.  $1.35? $2.25? Who knows.

The market is different than the SW #1 35-cent market, because it costs $1,000 minimum to be in the SW #1 35-cent market, but if someone just wanted $50 worth of SW #1 35-cent, they get nothing.

Thousands of people already want $100+ in SW #1 30-cent books, and they're able to get/hold what they can afford in the normal SW #1 30-cent hobby.

If 400 people want $50 worth of SW #1 35-cent, that's $20,000 total... but those 400 people and that $20K are not part of the normal SW #1 35-cent hobby.  It takes a different concept to serve that market.

Edited January 28, 2021 by valiantman
July 2020 limit was 20 shares, not 10. Edited.

[Namtak]

Remembrer that Simpsons episode where bart and other Kids bought one comics together well i thinl the creator saw that coming!!fractional ownership is bad it will tear that comic apart!!  Lol

[miraclemet]

The recent GameStop market manipulation story made me think of this thread....

[ygogolak]

On 1/26/2021 at 11:15 AM, valiantman said:

The IPO (July 2020) was $1 per share, 12,000 shares, with a limit of 10 shares.  RallyRd used this book as a "start here" item.  They've done a few of those.

There has been one trading day (November 2020) on the 9.0 SW #1 35-cent since the IPO and on that day the bids/asks balanced at $1.70 per share - so that was the final amount.

On Thursday, the bids/asks will be whatever dollar amount anyone chooses, but the "last price" was $1.70, so that is shown in the graphic.

If all the bids are $1 and all the asks are $1, it would fall back to $1/share.  If there are bids and asks at $2/share, it could go to $2/share.  We'll see where it balances at the end of trading Thursday.  $1.35? $2.25? Who knows.

The market is different than the SW #1 35-cent market, because it costs $1,000 minimum to be in the SW #1 35-cent market, but if someone just wanted $50 worth of SW #1 35-cent, they get nothing.

Thousands of people already want $100+ in SW #1 30-cent books, and they're able to get/hold what they can afford in the normal SW #1 30-cent hobby.

If 400 people want $50 worth of SW #1 35-cent, that's $20,000 total... but those 400 people and that $20K are not part of the normal SW #1 35-cent hobby.  It takes a different concept to serve that market.

So the problem I see here is people are looking at their individual share, which was $1 timex X and saying "I need to at least make $0.50 per share". Fine, but when you add all that up it has nothing to do with the actual real time, market value of the collectible.

Edited January 28, 2021 by ygogolak

[KPR Comics]

1 hour ago, ygogolak said:

So the problem I see here is people are looking at their individual share, which was $1 timex X and saying "I need to at least make $0.50 per share". Fine, but when you add all that up it has nothing to do with the actual real time, market value of the collectible.

That is pretty much what the stock market is, to a degree.  Market Cap does not equal liquidation value.

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, ygogolak said:

So the problem I see here is people are looking at their individual share, which was $1 timex X and saying "I need to at least make $0.50 per share". Fine, but when you add all that up it has nothing to do with the actual real time, market value of the collectible.

That's true, if someone bought in at $1 and said "I need to at least make $0.50 per share" they are hoping the collectible will go up by 50%.  That alone does not factor in the actual real time market value of the collectible.

In the case of 9.0 SW #1 35-cent variant, the initial price of $1/share for 12,000 shares is obviously a $12,000 total for the book on July 3, 2020.  The most recent sale on GPA for a 9.0 SW #1 35-cent variant was $7,920 in November 2019.

So, the first question was whether $1/share was even worth the starting price... $12,000 vs. $7,920 eight months earlier.  Enough people thought so, and the book sold for $1/share.

Perhaps they were not interested in the real-time market value as you suggest, perhaps they believed the market had risen and this was the new market, perhaps they were using the $9,000 sale of an 8.0 from May 2020 to justify $12,000 for 9.0.  Perhaps they just had $10 and liked Star Wars. 

Then, on November 3, 2020, those $1 shares were open for a trading day. 

The most recent 9.0 sale was a $9,600 sale from July 9, 2020, which would be $0.80/share at $9,600... but the price went to $1.70/share, reflecting a $20,400 total value (12,000 shares).

Again, the market on RallyRd was higher than the actual market, and I still believe these are different markets.  "People with $9,600 to spend on 9.0 SW #1 35-cent" and "People with $1.70 to spend on a fraction of 9.0 SW #1 35-cent" are two different markets.  Of course the people in the first group might also be in the second group, but it's very unlikely the people in the second group are also in the first group.  Those people with less than $9,600 know they don't have the money for the whole collectible at current market price.  They recognize they are lacking in a quality necessary to participate in the traditional market.  Perhaps they also recognize they will need to pay a premium to participate where they are not traditionally allowed to be.

On November 25, 2020, the market again saw a sale for CGC 9.0 SW #1 35-cent variant at $10,750.  Those holding shares at $1.70/share are very much in danger of losing value if the real-time market value is the only factor in the fractional value.

The whole premise, though, is that RallyRd users, who already know they don't qualify for the "buy the whole $9,600 item" market and will be paying a premium to participate in the alternate fractional market would also be short-term flippers.

That's where the premise faulters, I believe.  Those who would like to own a whole or fractional part of CGC 9.0 SW #1 35-cent may be in it for the long term.  If so, sure, they'd love to own the book for $9,600 and see it go to $30,000 or something in the real-time market someday, but they might also be willing to pay the equivalent of $20,000 to own a fraction of that book that might go to $30,000 in the real-time market someday.  Until then, they might be happy to hold.

There are definitely more motivations than just "buy for $1 today, sell for $1.50 in 90 days" when it comes to purchasing grails, whether they are whole grails or fractions of whole grails.  Grails have a "hold forever" quality that $1 (or $1.70) books do not.

 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

8 minutes ago, valiantman said:

That's true, if someone bought in at $1 and said "I need to at least make $0.50 per share" they are hoping the collectible will go up by 50%.  That alone does not factor in the actual real time market value of the collectible.

In the case of 9.0 SW #1 35-cent variant, the initial price of $1/share for 12,000 shares is obviously a $12,000 total for the book on July 3, 2020.  The most recent sale on GPA for a 9.0 SW #1 35-cent variant was $7,920 in November 2019.

So, the first question was whether $1/share was even worth the starting price... $12,000 vs. $7,920 eight months earlier.  Enough people thought so, and the book sold for $1/share.

Perhaps they were not interested in the real-time market value as you suggest, perhaps they believed the market had risen and this was the new market, perhaps they were using the $9,000 sale of an 8.0 from May 2020 to justify $12,000 for 9.0.  Perhaps they just had $10 and liked Star Wars. 

Then, on November 3, 2020, those $1 shares were open for a trading day. 

The most recent 9.0 sale was a $9,600 sale from July 9, 2020, which would be $0.80/share at $9,600... but the price went to $1.70/share, reflecting a $20,400 total value (12,000 shares).

Again, the market on RallyRd was higher than the actual market, and I still believe these are different markets.  "People with $9,600 to spend on 9.0 SW #1 35-cent" and "People with $1.70 to spend on a fraction of 9.0 SW #1 35-cent" are two different markets.  Of course the people in the first group might also be in the second group, but it's very unlikely the people in the second group are also in the first group.  Those people with less than $9,600 know they don't have the money for the whole collectible at current market price.  They recognize they are lacking in a quality necessary to participate in the traditional market.  Perhaps they also recognize they will need to pay a premium to participate where they are not traditionally allowed to be.

On November 25, 2020, the market again saw a sale for CGC 9.0 SW #1 35-cent variant at $10,750.  Those holding shares at $1.70/share are very much in danger of losing value if the real-time market value is the only factor in the fractional value.

The whole premise, though, is that RallyRd users, who already know they don't qualify for the "buy the whole $9,600 item" market and will be paying a premium to participate in the alternate fractional market would also be short-term flippers.

That's where the premise faulters, I believe.  Those who would like to own a whole or fractional part of CGC 9.0 SW #1 35-cent may be in it for the long term.  If so, sure, they'd love to own the book for $9,600 and see it go to $30,000 or something in the real-time market someday, but they might also be willing to pay the equivalent of $20,000 to own a fraction of that book that might go to $30,000 in the real-time market someday.  Until then, they might be happy to hold.

There are definitely more motivations than just "buy for $1 today, sell for $1.50 in 90 days" when it comes to purchasing grails, whether they are whole grails or fractions of whole grails.  Grails have a "hold forever" quality that $1 (or $1.70) books do not.

 

 

So, if the real market value is less than the fractional value, the asset never sells?

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

So, if the real market value is less than the fractional value, the asset never sells?

Correct, there would be no outside offer to the RallyRd team which would be higher than the last sale price for the shares, if that collectible/car/asset is available in the real market for cheaper.

You could still sell your shares in the RallyRd system, but it would be a sale to other RallyRd users who would need a reason to buy (beyond the comparative real-world value)... such as always wanting that particular grail, or wanting to increase their holdings while the price is low.

At that point, the asset is stuck in the RallyRd system, much like a (whole) CGC copy of Marvel Super-Heroes #13 is stuck in my real-world collection at about 75% of where I bought it.  If only I had $50 stuck in a fraction of the book instead of $500 in the whole thing.  (I could sell either at a loss, but I'd rather lose part of $50 - through partial ownership - than losing that same percentage of $500 through whole ownership.) 

The remedy would be to only purchase RallyRd shares in something you'd be happy to be stuck with... such as grails you won't afford in "the real world".

And, as always, be aware that RallyRd could close up and leave you with nothing but a class-action lawsuit.  Yep, it's risky to be poor and ambitious.

Edited January 28, 2021 by valiantman