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Combined investment will cause Golden Age (Collectors) to explode
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573 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, fishbone said:

Yes, and it's this "emotional value" that must continue through generations - somehow-  to keep this hobby going strong into the future. And that emotion must translate to owning the physical copy of something. Here is a somewhat-related example of why I just might have hope for the current youth and maybe (hopefully) their progeny:

I have quite an extensive music collection of LP's , cassette tapes, and CD's (yes, I am 50-ish). The other day, in a Facebook group of like-minded tastes in music, I simply stacked 9 cassette tapes and took a picture and posted. In 3 days, I had 1000+ likes and tons of comments, such as "what I wouldn't do to own that cassette tape of X", and "wow, I didn't think that album even existed in tape form", etc. etc.  I was actually floored !! , because that was the ONLY choice I had, say in 1991, to get that music, just so not a big deal to me. I now have that same music (plus  9000 + more songs) on my little thing I'm holding in my hand now, and  20 year-olds are drooling at what it would be like to own such  relics.  Crazy.

So, I do have hope. 

Who needs Disney + when you physically own almost everything they ever released ?   Invest now ! :wishluck:20200527_071405.jpg.e9dbe0a25ff67b0f7c322eb96c9c598b.jpg

And when it comes to the comic stock market, well when ever there is a way there is to make a dollar someone will buy in , but when investment crooks and market managers get involved the whole thing starts to sound a bit more like an episode of tenor-2.gif.2dd9445826d05cff35e860038c6aec92.gif

1 hour ago, N e r V said:

He’ll also kiss babes for cash...

81CFB040-0A7A-4051-80B3-0F290218C560.jpeg.7fa31930614c95ed16cf9dc3bbca4811.jpeg0F37D933-CC4A-4D2D-8748-126554F8F9FC.thumb.jpeg.49d9c16ddf18391a3ac83676d298083c.jpeg

Now this sounds like something I could get behind.  Although need to widen my portfolio so better invest in Mono Drug Manufacturers as well.. 

If we do see a comic book investment portfolio where you invest in shares you can bet that there will definitely be a " Mile High Market" 

Edited by onlyweaknesskryptonite
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6 minutes ago, GermanFan said:

If people start "investing" in things like Sneakers you know the end of the "bubble of everything" is near.

Unless you were being facetious, this hobby already exists.  In my limited understanding of the sporting goods collecting market Sneakers are a big deal investment wise.  There are two markets, ...one similar to the toy market where “mint in box” is the criteria for value, ...the other is signed footwear, especially game worn signed footwear.  

Bubbles exist when there is an uncertainty about three things: 1) pricing in a saturated market (in comic collecting terms that’s usually measured by census numbers, which establish available issues in various grades, creating competition), 2) fluctuating interest fueled by inconsistent media attention on featured character(s) or series of comics, and 3) too many copies, especially high end copies, available to bolster flagging interest in a character or book series in a constantly moving market.

If anyone has more to add that I’ve overlooked, corrections (pun intended) or alternative views, please share them. 

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8 hours ago, adamstrange said:

There have been a lot of schemes like this over the years but they are more likely to result in tears than cheers.

The most recent large scale one was in France where a guy tried to establish a fund in rare books and manuscripts.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/business/aristophil-lheritier-rare-books.html

Very interesting read, thanks for posting.  A cautionary tale indeed.

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5 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

Unless you were being facetious, this hobby already exists.  In my limited understanding of the sporting goods collecting market Sneakers are a big deal investment wise.  There are two markets, ...one similar to the toy market where “mint in box” is the criteria for value, ...the other is signed footwear, especially game worn signed footwear.  

Bubbles exist when there is an uncertainty about three things: 1) pricing in a saturated market (in comic collecting terms that’s usually measured by census numbers, which establish available issues in various grades, creating competition), 2) fluctuating interest fueled by inconsistent media attention on featured character(s) or series of comics, and 3) too many copies, especially high end copies, available to bolster flagging interest in a character or book series in a constantly moving market.

If anyone has more to add that I’ve overlooked, corrections (pun intended) or alternative views, please share them. 

The World According to Jeff Goldblum’s  first episode was on sneakers on Disney+. Very enjoyable piece on the subject.

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To late guys. Looks like a boardie has been playing us all along  and is already on board the original  posters ship...
 

3A89ADC1-B63C-4966-97B5-88084B572432.jpeg.2d62bd7813a745679391f2edf07b0afa.jpeg

 

I wondered who was really paying for all those nice 9.6’s we see here...lol

 

 

Edited by N e r V
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11 minutes ago, N e r V said:

To late guys. Looks like a boardie has been playing us all along  and is already on board the original  posters ship...
 

3A89ADC1-B63C-4966-97B5-88084B572432.jpeg.2d62bd7813a745679391f2edf07b0afa.jpeg

 

I wondered who was really paying for all those nice 9.6’s we see here...lol

 

 

I'm spending a bunch of nice granny' retirement money wisely.

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9 hours ago, adamstrange said:

There have been a lot of schemes like this over the years but they are more likely to result in tears than cheers.

The most recent large scale one was in France where a guy tried to establish a fund in rare books and manuscripts.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/business/aristophil-lheritier-rare-books.html

Thank you!

This was a fascinating read.

And largely validates my view that this Rally Rd. comic-book-shares venture will essentially need to become a ponzi scheme to survive. As I noted in the other thread, its business model seems contingent on a continual parade of suckers willing to pay 20-40% more for shares than the underlying asset is worth.

Also - one thing that distinguishes this venture from Mr. Lheritier's is we have access to both GPA and Rally Rd.'s original purchase price of their comics - thus there's *far* greater price transparency for slabbed comics than rare manuscripts, art, etc.

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if a reputable business created a system that could allow investments in Action 1s etc, IMO it would be something many collectors wouldn't mind putting a few dollars into....  From the perspective of those of us who believe strongly that an particulatr comic he cant afford will ABSOLUTELY be worth double its current value down the road and they are willing to BET that it will happen, why not?   They could buy $1000 of it, and look to sell their shares to someone else down the road when it appreciated.  Isn't that what buying stocks are?  Trouble is as many have pointed out, there is ZERO infrastructure or demand or historically safe vehicle to do this kind of investing.  And it would be rather thinly traded too compared to wall street investments...  So to me while on paper it's a viable and comparable investment vehicle -- it faces a mount Everest sized roadblock and list of problem to getting going any time soon.  Problem#1: Someone or place would have to take possession of the Action 1 to safeguard it... and anybody who tries to set up this business will be suspect.  If / when it collapses, they have the goods, and your marginal investment % is worthless.

But, is there a chance a well known Comics Company has enough gravitas and financial weight as well as credibility and trustiness, where this is a merely sideline and not a get rich scheme could pull this off?  Heritage maybe?  Could CGC at some point be up to working this out?  someday maybe.  we've seen a lot of changes in the past 20 years to know that anything is possible in this hobby.

not all work out as planned, but...

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To many problems to list but if a book is worth a million dollars what’s to stop someone from selling 5 million dollars of shares in it? Is the book ever sold or does it sit as a museum piece for some lucky person to enjoy? How do you value say a 9.0 Action comics #1? Seldom sold. Can anyone tell me for a fact what it would sell for at auction?
 

I have 2 “big” books I just insured and had to ask around from friends and boardies here to get some kind of dollar figure on their worth because of the rarely sold fact. Even then those are estimates so until it’s sold who knows. 
 

There’s more but I have to work today. I will say I do know people in small groups say 2 to maybe 5 or 6 people who have invested in things like baseball cards, cars or property with percentages and agreement on selling times. That can work and is a way as the original post suggested to invest in something one person can’t afford.

Edited by N e r V
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4 hours ago, GermanFan said:

If people start "investing" in things like Sneakers you know the end of the "bubble of everything" is near.

Was that a joke, or do you not already know about www.stockx.com?

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8 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

The problem with your analysis is that there is a cap on the possible investment material that would apply to the theory. Take all of the ultra high value comics that could be potential candidates for this type of investment. What is that total value? Given that the total back issue market is estimated at a billion would it be $200 million? I think that would be the upper limit. Next one would have to fund the investment vehicle to acquire the material. The initial investment would have to be significant. Then there would be management fees and transaction fees to maintain the investment for a large number of clients. Then the ultimate problem, how to disperse the material in a system that would make the investment at liquid as possible. Now consider all of the fees that would be required to achieve all of those steps. Some percentage of $200 million isn't enough money to make that whole scenario profitable for any significant period of time.

 

 

 

As I had posted on the General board thread, can they really make money if we take a look at the Cap 3 example where they had to pay $35,500 for the book in the first place and then managed to fetched only $37,000 in the subsequent IPO.  I highly doubt the $1,500 premium can really cover all of the additional ancillary charges once you get lawyers and SEC securities involved:

6 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

I misread the filing.

They bought it from Vincent on March 16, securing it with only a $7,100 deposit...with the balance of $28,400 due within a week of the "IPO" on May 15.

Clever.

And...I haven't quite wrapped my mind around it yet, but seems like a good avenue for money laundering too.

 

18 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 

Yes, it would appear that the balance of $28,400 would have had to be paid back on May 15th, as this balance was due on the EARLIER of 7 days after the IPO or on May 15th.  So, they would have had to pay the full amount of $35,500 to Vinnie on May 15th or more than 2 months prior to the IPO coming out yesterday.  :gossip:

So, my question is if they managed to raise only $37,000 from this IPO, how are the boys at RallyRd going to be able to make much money on this, if any in fact, if the remaining $1,500 premium is expected to pay for all of the ancillary storage costs, insurance fees, and administration fees such as registration and lawyer fees?  ???  (shrug)

 

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4 hours ago, Aman619 said:

But, is there a chance a well known Comics Company has enough gravitas and financial weight as well as credibility and trustiness, where this is a merely sideline and not a get rich scheme could pull this off?  Heritage maybe?  Could CGC at some point be up to working this out?  someday maybe.  we've seen a lot of changes in the past 20 years to know that anything is possible in this hobby.

 

3 hours ago, shadroch said:

Metropolis used to publish a theoretical blue chip comic portfolio, and I'm sure they would attract investors in it if it actually existed, but how would they make any money?

Well, from looking at all of the documents, maybe Metro/CC is already indirectly involved in some way as it appears that all of the books have been sourced or brought from either Vinnie or Ken Goldin (the founder of some big sports memobralia auction house) as their names are on the SEC documents as being the sellers for these books to RallyRd from what I can see.  :gossip:

 

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11 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

Some percentage of $200 million isn't enough money to make that whole scenario profitable for any significant period of time.

I am willing to accept the hedge fund industry's standard 2/20 charge on $200 million as part of an experiment to see if this could take off. 

I've always been selfless like that.

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9 hours ago, MrBedrock said:
9 hours ago, fishbone said:

"wow, I didn't think that album even existed in tape form"

 

albumtape.jpg

Never understood buying albums in cassette form.  It was much cheaper to borrow a friend's LP and then record it on a blank cassette! 

We would pool our resources by figuring out who was going to buy which LP, and then everyone would record everyone else's LPs onto blank cassettes.  And you would of course record your own LPs so you could listen on your Walkman, boombox, car stereo, etc.  Voila, impressive music collection! 

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17 hours ago, Aman619 said:

Problem#1: Someone or place would have to take possession of the Action 1 to safeguard it... and anybody who tries to set up this business will be suspect.  If / when it collapses, they have the goods, and your marginal investment % is worthless.

This is actually one of the least problematic parts of creating such a fund.  The ownership of the books would sit with a special purpose investment vehicle, which in turn could be owned by a trust or other ownership vehicle.  This is simple nuts and bolts for investment funds, ETFs, etc.

Physical storage and management would be relatively easy too.  There are numerous storage facilities for high dollar items that legally sit in a customs no man's land in places like Switzerland, Singapore, etc. where billions of dollars of art and other items sit already.  Collectors deposit their collections there and go see their collections there, because they don't want to pay the customs and duties to bring the items into their countries.  You could also hire any number of perfectly reputable custodian services to manage the physical custodianship of the items.    

The problem is that all of this infrastructure costs money, and to Richard's point, the total universe of comic book assets, even including OA, simply isn't big enough to sustain the cost of maintaining this infrastructure year in-year out.  A 2% management fee on a investment fund with AUM of $200m is $4m.  So the fund's gross profit has to be at least $4m otherwise it's going to have to sell off "principal" just to pay for its operating costs.  

A really successful Heritage Signature Auction is what -- US$7-8 million of gross proceeds?  And there are 4-6 of those per year?   Throw in ComicConnect and Comiclink on top of that. 

This assumes we're talking about an "ETF" of many comics.  If we're talking about an "ETF" of individual books, or even comprised of the same issues (e.g., an "Action #1 ETF"), the size issues I've described above are going to be compounded because there simply aren't that many Action 1s and their aggregate value simply isn't big enough.  

Edited by tth2
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We are in the digital age so the administrative costs can be a fraction of any such scheme set up in prior decades.  As tth2 points out, the remaining costs are still significant and probably substantial enough to prevent this from being profitable unless there are very dramatic gains in the underlying assets. 

Big keys seemed to have stalled a bit lately and are already at high value where each percent increase is incrementally harder to obtain. 

Could this fuel a bubble due to an initial wave of enthusiasm?  Yes.

Is this likely to be a long term change and important factor in the hobby?  Probably not.

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