tth2 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 12 hours ago, exitmusicblue said: One bad injury, and millions in Modern value can vanish overnight. The thing I don't understand about the prices being paid for Trout cards is that even if everything works out fine, where do you go from $3m? Even if he does turn out to be everything some people think he is and not only goes into the Hall but wins every MVP award from now until his retirement, breaks the HR record and every other batting record in the book, and somehow suddenly turns into a winner who wins lots and lots of World Series, how much is $3m going to further appreciate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exitmusicblue Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) 37 minutes ago, tth2 said: The thing I don't understand about the prices being paid for Trout cards is that even if everything works out fine, where do you go from $3m? Even if he does turn out to be everything some people think he is and not only goes into the Hall but wins every MVP award from now until his retirement, breaks the HR record and every other batting record in the book, and somehow suddenly turns into a winner who wins lots and lots of World Series, how much is $3m going to further appreciate? Because the superfractor auto is a unique card -- a 1 of 1 -- and the best of his 1 of 1s. If his accomplishments eclipse, say, Mantle, then a lot more than 3 mil is possible. A Topps '52 Mantle went for 2.88 mil in 2018. Among if not the highest graded, but still, far from unique in quantity produced. Enough people with F you money would bid it up. But this only happens IF he goes down as baseball's Michael Jordan. However, most don't see him winning multiple rings... one would be a miracle given the state of the Halos. Championships don't have quite the weight in stats-obsessed baseball as they may in the other major sports (see exhibit Ted Williams), but you ain't MJ without rings. Edited September 23, 2020 by exitmusicblue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exitmusicblue Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 *And before MJ lovers rejoice too much... yes, he was a god. But who's to say a better player won't come around some day who manages to snag 7 rings with better stats, esp. in this era of the superteam. There's no guarantee in any hobby. I used to (and still can) rag on Lebron so hard because a large part of his narrative in the cardboard world is fueled by value-fixated self-interest. It's a zero-sum battleground. To an extent, we see this in Marvel vs. DC, but I'd say the bluest chips in either camp are pretty much close to impervious to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vodou Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 4 hours ago, tth2 said: how much is $3m going to further appreciate? 3 hours ago, exitmusicblue said: Because the superfractor auto is a unique card -- a 1 of 1 -- and the best of his 1 of 1s. If his accomplishments eclipse, say, Mantle, then a lot more than 3 mil is possible. There is where I've checked out on about fifteen other 'hobbies' since I began 'collecting' in 1981: when nobody actually wants to own the thing; instead the entire price structure is supported by The Greater Fool Theory. That highly speculative mindset, whenever I've found my own mind drifting toward that, I know: time to get out or never get in to begin with. Aside from ripping a few cheap fun packs, no sports cards since 1989/90. No floppy comics, aside from keeping a few runs current to 1996, since 1992, et al. I wish everyone here the best, sounds like a bunch of you have done quite well with this too but...if everyone else disappears tomorrow...all that unopened 'product'...it's "what" to you? Probably garbage. Which is already what it is to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronty Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 7 hours ago, tth2 said: Wow, so Gene is the go-to guy for x-rated comic art? Interesting! I like x-rated comic art I don't mind adult books if well done, just like any other genre. And the art from them tends to be cheap, so for my hobby dollars its not a bad proposition really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post delekkerste Posted September 23, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) On 9/23/2020 at 2:04 AM, tth2 said: I was only half joking with my Schrodinger post. The value of the unopened boxes lies purely in the potential of what may be in there. Sorry for the off-topic thread derailment, but, since the Sep HA auction is done and dusted, I feel like it's not as bad. Just wanted to give people a sense of how nutty the sports card market has gotten in 2020 and why nothing surprises me in OA anymore, because the real craziness is happening elsewhere. Here's how white-hot box prices are these days. Look at the prices I actually paid for these boxes on Feb. 20 (pre-lockdown) vs. where they are now: 2018-19 Topps Chrome Premier League Soccer Hobby Box - paid $33 on Feb. 20. Now - $150 2018-19 Topps Champions League Chrome Soccer Box - paid $75 on Feb. 20. Now - $1,000 per box if you buy a 12-box case 2018 Topps Finest Champions League Soccer Hobby Box - paid $60 on Feb. 20. Now - $325 2017-18 Topps Champions League Museum Collection Box - paid $80 on Feb. 20. Now - $321 per box if you buy a 12-box case I pre-ordered some of the 2019-20 Topps Champions League Museum Collection boxes for $100/each back in early March (just before the lockdown). They still haven't even been released yet (the Champions League Final was delayed by about 3 months), but, the price is now $400/box. Your chance of recouping your outlay from pack ripping/box breaking at these prices is very close to zero (unfortunately I ripped all of the above and much more). That said, due to the relative dearth of graded soccer cards, I suspect that people are willing to pay up for raw product to be among the first to market with graded examples that will sell for stupid prices, even if they're pretty ho-hum cards (I remember when a Official Handbook of the Marvel Universe #15 CGC 9.8 sold on eBay for stoooopid money back in the very early days of CGC, just because 9.8s were rare at the time. Same thing is happening with PSA 10-graded soccer cards, even the plentiful "base" cards, of star players). So, maybe it's less irrational than it seems. But, still...most soccer card boxes have roofed 300-400%+ over the past 7 months. It's totally nuts. Baseball hasn't been as hot, but, 50-100% price jumps on boxes have been the norm. Panini/Donruss has been releasing higher-end sports card boxes brand new at up to $800/box and they sell out within minutes and re-sell for a premium in the after-market immediately. I just saw this morning that the pre-order price for Panini's upcoming Prizm (NFL) Football set is $949.95 per box. The market is absolutely molten now, people can't get enough product so the manufacturers are being rational actors and giving them what they want. Edited September 24, 2020 by delekkerste Andahaion, vodou, zhamlau and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronty Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) Modern cards are hot for sure. quality nintendo, sega and ps1 material is 2 to 10x what it was 1-3 years ago also. Feels like things are doubling every six months atm. (Of course certain comics are hot too - and its the ones you'd kind of expect given current demographics, right? TMNT 1 is just en feugo - IIRC there was a make an offer on a 8.0 at 16k which was the 9.6 price recently). A few quasi random examples just from heritage's make an offer database (paid amounts, dates, offer amounts): Spyro The Dragon [Black Label] Wata 9.4 A+ Sealed PS1 Sony 1998 USA. ... $1,020.00 Nov 03 2019 $6,000 Pending F-Zero (SNES, Nintendo, 1991) Wata 9.8 A++ (Seal Rating).... $1,080.00 Mar 17 2019 $3,000 Pending Sep 19 2020 Super Mario Bros. (NES, Nintendo, 1985) Wata 8.0 A (Seal Rating).... $1,800.00 Feb 23 2019 $7,501 Rejected Edited September 23, 2020 by Bronty John E., Twanj and BuraddoRun 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronty Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) what's the record for % increase on a make an offer flip? Is there any way to look that up? 12,000% has to be close I would think (not mine but paid 286, sold 38,889, 12 year window). https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/don-punchatz-doom-gaming-magazine-cover-illustration-original-art-undated-/a/829-42402.s?ic4=OtherResults-SampleItem-Thumbnail-022817&tab=ArchiveSearchResults-012417 Edited September 23, 2020 by Bronty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exitmusicblue Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, vodou said: There is where I've checked out on about fifteen other 'hobbies' since I began 'collecting' in 1981: when nobody actually wants to own the thing; instead the entire price structure is supported by The Greater Fool Theory. That highly speculative mindset, whenever I've found my own mind drifting toward that, I know: time to get out or never get in to begin with. Aside from ripping a few cheap fun packs, no sports cards since 1989/90. No floppy comics, aside from keeping a few runs current to 1996, since 1992, et al. I wish everyone here the best, sounds like a bunch of you have done quite well with this too but...if everyone else disappears tomorrow...all that unopened 'product'...it's "what" to you? Probably garbage. Which is already what it is to me The Greater Fool Theory is rife in sports cards collecting. Some of the cards are quite pleasing to the eye, but as with comics, would puzzle many who prefer the doe-eyed look of Ben Franklin. I checked out years ago when I stopped enjoying the hobby, and am left with a handful of high-end cards of my longtime favorites acquired on the cheap. Phew. Viva OA and its community. $$$ like a mofo, yes, and not at all cost-efficient with respect to nostalgia (a very good point by Gene), but it has the right ingredients to keep me going... not to mention endless room for exploration and learning. Edited September 23, 2020 by exitmusicblue delekkerste 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exitmusicblue Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Bronty said: Modern cards are hot for sure. quality nintendo, sega and ps1 material is 2 to 10x what it was 1-3 years ago also. Feels like things are doubling every six months atm. (Of course certain comics are hot too - and its the ones you'd kind of expect given current demographics, right? TMNT 1 is just en feugo - IIRC there was a make an offer on a 8.0 at 16k which was the 9.6 price recently). A few quasi random examples just from heritage's make an offer database (paid amounts, dates, offer amounts): Spyro The Dragon [Black Label] Wata 9.4 A+ Sealed PS1 Sony 1998 USA. ... $1,020.00 Nov 03 2019 $6,000 Pending F-Zero (SNES, Nintendo, 1991) Wata 9.8 A++ (Seal Rating).... $1,080.00 Mar 17 2019 $3,000 Pending Sep 19 2020 Super Mario Bros. (NES, Nintendo, 1985) Wata 8.0 A (Seal Rating).... $1,800.00 Feb 23 2019 $7,501 Rejected I think it was Metropolis / ComicConnect that raved about video games in this year's Overstreet Market Report. Impressive + not surprising considering the sheer # of gamers out there, and gaming's place in culture today... Twanj 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronty Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, exitmusicblue said: I think it was Metropolis / ComicConnect that raved about video games in this year's Overstreet Market Report. Impressive + not surprising considering the sheer # of gamers out there, and gaming's place in culture today... And whether people here like it or not, you could say the same about pokemon. That's a massive entertainment property, so, to bring it full circle, that 200k pokemon card box really isn't that surprising either. I think we forget or don't realize how big - see #1 spot on this list with 100 billion (with a B) in revenue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exitmusicblue Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bronty said: And whether people here like it or not, you could say the same about pokemon. That's a massive entertainment property, so, to bring it full circle, that 200k pokemon card box really isn't that surprising either. I think we forget or don't realize how big - see #1 spot on this list with 100 billion (with a B) in revenue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises Meanwhile, Marvel: Box office – $22.594 billion[ba] Merchandise sales – $7.228 billion[bc] Home entertainment – $5.254 billion[bd] Comic volumes – $520,000[be] In an alternate universe, they really ought to catalogue the tens of thousands of stolen/lost OA pieces, then send out search parties to try to claim what's rightfully theirs. A sale of a handful of covers would eclipse that comic volume figure... BuraddoRun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronty Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, exitmusicblue said: Meanwhile, Marvel: Box office – $22.594 billion[ba] Merchandise sales – $7.228 billion[bc] Home entertainment – $5.254 billion[bd] Comic volumes – $520,000[be] In an alternate universe, they really ought to catalogue the tens of thousands of stolen/lost OA pieces, then send out search parties to try to claim what's rightfully theirs. A sale of a handful of covers would eclipse that comic volume figure... Okay but you could say that about a lot of stuff (marvel especially, yes). A friend of mine has a nice watercolor Pokémon OA he got for free from the artist just for asking that he’s been offered 70k for. I believe the reason that comic volumes number is so low is because you’re looking at the marvel cinematic universe entry (marvel as a sum total of movies and other pursuits would have higher numbers). So presumably that's only the sales of comics that relate to the movies somehow. All the other comics presumably wouldn't be counted. A wider scope ”marvel” as an entry wouldn’t make sense though because this is supposed to be individual franchises ... if you use “marvel” as a measuring stick than you have to use “Nintendo” as the comparison not “Pokémon” and then the info stops being as useful. arguably “marvel cinematic universe “ as an entry makes no sense either , but it’s just a wiki entry to prove a general point, and not life or death Edited September 23, 2020 by Bronty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batman_fan Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 10 hours ago, tth2 said: Wow, so Gene is the go-to guy for x-rated comic art? Interesting! Gene does wear many hats, or in this case maybe studded jock straps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ESeffinga Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Maybe just really into Furry culture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exitmusicblue Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 This thread is expanding into mysterious places... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronty Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) 43 minutes ago, exitmusicblue said: This thread is expanding into mysterious places... Much like Gene perusing his Furry art! Edited September 23, 2020 by Bronty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShallowDan Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Bronty said: Modern cards are hot for sure. quality nintendo, sega and ps1 material is 2 to 10x what it was 1-3 years ago also. Feels like things are doubling every six months atm. (Of course certain comics are hot too - and its the ones you'd kind of expect given current demographics, right? TMNT 1 is just en feugo - IIRC there was a make an offer on a 8.0 at 16k which was the 9.6 price recently). A few quasi random examples just from heritage's make an offer database (paid amounts, dates, offer amounts): Spyro The Dragon [Black Label] Wata 9.4 A+ Sealed PS1 Sony 1998 USA. ... $1,020.00 Nov 03 2019 $6,000 Pending F-Zero (SNES, Nintendo, 1991) Wata 9.8 A++ (Seal Rating).... $1,080.00 Mar 17 2019 $3,000 Pending Sep 19 2020 Super Mario Bros. (NES, Nintendo, 1985) Wata 8.0 A (Seal Rating).... $1,800.00 Feb 23 2019 $7,501 Rejected I'll own up to being the guy who sold off most of his vidya-game stuff waaaay too early. There are lot's of NES/SNES era games as well as PS1/N64 era stuff (including sealed games) that I sold on eBay years ago where I left tons of money on the table with the benefit of hindsight. I was very skeptical of the graded game business early on and can remember even mocking it in some listings ("you can buy this one for $xx, encase it in lucite, then sell it to some sucker for three times as much"...). I did well on it all, but so did the guy who bought AMZN after the dot com crash, then sold it all in '03-'04. John E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronty Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 42 minutes ago, ShallowDan said: I'll own up to being the guy who sold off most of his vidya-game stuff waaaay too early. There are lot's of NES/SNES era games as well as PS1/N64 era stuff (including sealed games) that I sold on eBay years ago where I left tons of money on the table with the benefit of hindsight. I was very skeptical of the graded game business early on and can remember even mocking it in some listings ("you can buy this one for $xx, encase it in lucite, then sell it to some sucker for three times as much"...). I did well on it all, but so did the guy who bought AMZN after the dot com crash, then sold it all in '03-'04. That's too bad, but at least you did well with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exitmusicblue Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 This is inspiring me to see which of my ol' games are worth what... : > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...