Official TMNT Speculation Thread 14 14

[WolverineX]

58 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

To expand on this specific point, with the intense price escalation of first prints these last few months my desire to sell my copy has decreased rather than increased because I know, once I sell it, I am immediately priced out from getting another copy. 

so if this high grade 9.6 2nd print pushes a 3.0 first print to the 6k level... does that mean we potentially may be hitting 2k per point for a first print soon?  

[LDarkseid1]

4 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

Iv seen this happen with H181 you can pick any single sale to support a trend either way but when looking at the larger picture its a solid sale imho,  I try not  to focus on each sale, but the overall picture, had I told you in early spring that # would be paid for a 2nd print most of us would have thought I was insane

Yeah I mean I guess. Not long ago a 7.0 sold for $2125 and then both a 4.0 and 3.0 shortly after went for about $1350. Those make a 9.6 that is extremely higher seem weak at around $6K. The trend seemed to be pointing that a super high grade would be closer to $8K-$10K or more. And then the 9.2 sells for $5500 to reinforce that. Just doesn’t make any sense.

Edited September 13, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[Ryan.]

14 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

so if this high grade 9.6 2nd print pushes a 3.0 first print to the 6k level... does that mean we potentially may be hitting 2k per point for a first print soon?  

I think we are already there. 

[WolverineX]

20 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

I think we are already there. 

Wait... a 6.0 was only 10k a month ago . They sell for 12k now?

[Ryan.]

29 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

Wait... a 6.0 was only 10k a month ago . They sell for 12k now?

I would point back to my reference to Golden Age collecting in that, when only a handful of copies trade in any given time frame, FMV stops being whatever the last sale was in grade and becomes whatever the current owner of that grade is willing to take. 

As an example, I own a copy of Contact 12 in 6.0. The last sale was something like $3600 or thereabouts earlier this year. I received a private offer in that amount soon afterward, with the offerer figuring that was FMV. Based on the recent sale his offer was absolutely fair. However I rejected it without any thought, knowing if I sold it then I would never own a copy that nice again.

Maybe I'm way off on all of this but I'm primarily a GA collector and TMNT 1 is showing similar market traits. 

[I am not Glenda]

I have to say if I was in the market for a first print I would be emailing Dave and Adam on there book with a solid offer and take it from there, because if the current 8.0 auction is any indication that book is looking like a deal if you can get it for 17/18k and a month from now might be a steal, with 40 watchers it's just a matter of time before someone pulls the trigger. just my 2 cents.   https://www.ebay.com/itm/Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtles-1-CGC-8-5-W-Origin-1st-Splinter-1st-Shredder/373152158236?hash=item56e19a121c:g:0NsAAOSwytxfOpyz

 

Edited September 13, 2020 by I am not Glenda

[valiantman]

On 9/12/2020 at 8:08 PM, I am not Glenda said:

_{I almost forgot I think the # 3 NY print variation is way undervalued when you consider there were only 500 examples}

Definitely.  The CGC 8.0 TMNT #3 NYCC Variant that just ended at $1,375 somehow set a new price record and still looks like a bargain.

[I am not Glenda]

5 hours ago, valiantman said:

Definitely.  The CGC 8.0 TMNT #3 NYCC Variant that just ended at $1,375 somehow set a new price record and still looks like a bargain.

100% it has been undervalued imo for a long time.That $1,375 will look like a great buy over the next few years. It's legit rare in the sense that it's one of those books that you can't just get when you want it regardless of how much $$$ your willing to spend ( most collectors know if they sell there copy they can't easily replace it, which support Ryans post above) Overall imo any of the first 4 & their variants are just going to be more sought after over the next decade. TMNT passes my GUAM test....... ie if you go to Guam and ask anyone who Superman, Batman, Spiderman, Wolverine or Leonardo are 99.9 % of the population will know who your talking about as the franchise keeps reinventing itself, my 10 yr old grandson loves TMNT. The true demand vs scarcity of  #1 fp's is going to pull everything up. There are substantially less copies of TMNT #1 fp then #181 & even AF 15 on the census ( Tec 27/Action 1 are another animal altogether)......yes you will have your spikes but you tell me where this is headed as worldwide "generation turtle" starts to really come into prime adulthood collecting age...... Cowabunga Dude! 

Edited September 14, 2020 by I am not Glenda

[tvindy]

8 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

100% it has been undervalued imo for a long time.That $1,375 will look like a great buy over the next few years. It's legit rare in the sense that it's one of those books that you can't just get when you want it regardless of how much $$$ your willing to spend ( most collectors know if they sell there copy they can't easily replace it, which support Ryans post above) Overall imo any of the first 4 & their variants are just going to be more sought after over the next decade. TMNT passes my GUAM test....... ie if you go to Guam and ask anyone who Superman, Batman, Spiderman, Wolverine or Leonardo are 99.9 % of the population will know who your talking about as the franchise keeps reinventing itself, my 10 yr old grandson loves TMNT. The true demand vs scarcity of  #1 fp's is going to pull everything up. There are substantially less copies of TMNT #1 fp then #181 & even AF 15 on the census ( Tec 27/Action 1 are another animal altogether)......yes you will have your spikes but you tell me where this is headed as worldwide "generation turtle" starts to really come into prime adulthood collecting age...... Cowabunga Dude! 

Wow! You're right! There are actually far fewer copies of TMNT #1 (first edition) than Amazing Fantasy #15. That was so unbelievable that I had to look it up. AF 15 has 3,350 CGC graded copies, and TMNT #1 has only 938. That's 28% as many! And AF at 9.8 is currently going for around $1.4 million. Of course, scarcity isn't the only factor determining value, but the potential is huge. Who knows where we'll be twenty years from now. I'm definitely holding onto my first edition.

Edited September 14, 2020 by tvindy

[pubmonkey]

On 9/14/2020 at 12:28 AM, valiantman said:

Definitely.  The CGC 8.0 TMNT #3 NYCC Variant that just ended at $1,375 somehow set a new price record and still looks like a bargain.

Exactly. There are so few sales on record it’s hard to pin down a value. With today’s demand it’s a guessing game. Has anyone been keeping track of raw sales?

[valiantman]

21 hours ago, tvindy said:

AF at 9.8 is currently going for around $1.4 million.

AF #15 at CGC 9.8 doesn't exist. 

[tvindy]

38 minutes ago, valiantman said:

AF #15 at CGC 9.8 doesn't exist. 

 True. I just used gocollect's estimated value for what it would go for if it existed. I probably should have a less theoretical example. A 9.4 AF15 (which exists) goes for around $800,000. A 9.4 TMNT1 goes for around $23,000. (Although it's probably a lot higher now.) So even if TMNT finally stabilizes at even a tenth of AF15 values, a 9.4 TMNT1 would come to be worth $80,000.

[valiantman]

58 minutes ago, tvindy said:

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

AF #15 at CGC 9.8 doesn't exist. 

 True. I just used gocollect's estimated value for what it would go for if it existed. I probably should have a less theoretical example. A 9.4 AF15 (which exists) goes for around $800,000. A 9.4 TMNT1 goes for around $23,000. (Although it's probably a lot higher now.) So even if TMNT finally stabilizes at even a tenth of AF15 values, a 9.4 TMNT1 would come to be worth $80,000.

There are a few different ways to "do the math" and they're all interesting.

Currently, there are 10 copies of AF #15 graded CGC 9.4 or 9.6, none at 9.8.  There are 161 copies of TMNT #1 graded at CGC 9.4 or higher.

From the number of copies standpoint, if we said that TMNT was "equal" to Spider-Man in popularity, we might only expect the value of CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 to be around 6% of the CGC 9.4 AF #15 value.  Most people would say Spider-Man is a more popular character, so 6% would be too high of an estimate.

If we look at the difficulty of obtaining a CGC 9.4 (or higher) grade - the CGC census shows 0.3% of AF #15 graded have been CGC 9.4 or higher, while 17% of the copies of TMNT #1 have been graded CGC 9.4 or higher.  From the percentage of copies standpoint, CGC 9.4 is 56 times harder to obtain, so we might expect CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 to be about 1/56th the value of CGC 9.4 AF #15, or about 2%. 

Those two "do the math" estimates put CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 somewhere between 2% to 6% of the value of CGC 9.4 AF #15.  Seems like 10% (one-tenth) might be hard to justify (with math) long-term unless something significantly changes on the CGC census.

When prices aren't based on math, then it doesn't make any difference --- the selling price is whatever the market decides --- but eventually, the numbers tend to resemble something rational even when they're based on fictional characters from different generations. 

[tvindy]

11 minutes ago, valiantman said:

There are a few different ways to "do the math" and they're all interesting.

Currently, there are 10 copies of AF #15 graded CGC 9.4 or 9.6, none at 9.8.  There are 161 copies of TMNT #1 graded at CGC 9.4 or higher.

From the number of copies standpoint, if we said that TMNT was "equal" to Spider-Man in popularity, we might only expect the value of CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 to be around 6% of the CGC 9.4 AF #15 value.  Most people would say Spider-Man is a more popular character, so 6% would be too high of an estimate.

If we look at the difficulty of obtaining a CGC 9.4 (or higher) grade - the CGC census shows 0.3% of AF #15 graded have been CGC 9.4 or higher, while 17% of the copies of TMNT #1 have been graded CGC 9.4 or higher.  From the percentage of copies standpoint, CGC 9.4 is 56 times harder to obtain, so we might expect CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 to be about 1/56th the value of CGC 9.4 AF #15, or about 2%. 

Those two "do the math" estimates put CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 somewhere between 2% to 6% of the value of CGC 9.4 AF #15.  Seems like 10% (one-tenth) might be hard to justify (with math) long-term unless something significantly changes on the CGC census.

When prices aren't based on math, then it doesn't make any difference --- the selling price is whatever the market decides --- but eventually, the numbers tend to resemble something rational even when they're based on fictional characters from different generations. 

Interesting. I hadn't considered the issue of condition. Based on your numbers, I would say there is still a bit of room for prices to rise over the next few years, but there won't be any huge spurts going forward. Like you said, ultimately, it's what the market decides, but I do find these calculations fun and interesting.

[I am not Glenda]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

There are a few different ways to "do the math" and they're all interesting.

Currently, there are 10 copies of AF #15 graded CGC 9.4 or 9.6, none at 9.8.  There are 161 copies of TMNT #1 graded at CGC 9.4 or higher.

From the number of copies standpoint, if we said that TMNT was "equal" to Spider-Man in popularity, we might only expect the value of CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 to be around 6% of the CGC 9.4 AF #15 value.  Most people would say Spider-Man is a more popular character, so 6% would be too high of an estimate.

If we look at the difficulty of obtaining a CGC 9.4 (or higher) grade - the CGC census shows 0.3% of AF #15 graded have been CGC 9.4 or higher, while 17% of the copies of TMNT #1 have been graded CGC 9.4 or higher.  From the percentage of copies standpoint, CGC 9.4 is 56 times harder to obtain, so we might expect CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 to be about 1/56th the value of CGC 9.4 AF #15, or about 2%. 

Those two "do the math" estimates put CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 somewhere between 2% to 6% of the value of CGC 9.4 AF #15.  Seems like 10% (one-tenth) might be hard to justify (with math) long-term unless something significantly changes on the CGC census.

When prices aren't based on math, then it doesn't make any difference --- the selling price is whatever the market decides --- but eventually, the numbers tend to resemble something rational even when they're based on fictional characters from different generations. 

Shouldn't you be using the data for 9.8 TMNT & a 9.6 AF or even a 9.4 as the 9.6 is a white elephant.

[valiantman]

9 minutes ago, I am not Glenda said:

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

There are a few different ways to "do the math" and they're all interesting.

Currently, there are 10 copies of AF #15 graded CGC 9.4 or 9.6, none at 9.8.  There are 161 copies of TMNT #1 graded at CGC 9.4 or higher.

From the number of copies standpoint, if we said that TMNT was "equal" to Spider-Man in popularity, we might only expect the value of CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 to be around 6% of the CGC 9.4 AF #15 value.  Most people would say Spider-Man is a more popular character, so 6% would be too high of an estimate.

If we look at the difficulty of obtaining a CGC 9.4 (or higher) grade - the CGC census shows 0.3% of AF #15 graded have been CGC 9.4 or higher, while 17% of the copies of TMNT #1 have been graded CGC 9.4 or higher.  From the percentage of copies standpoint, CGC 9.4 is 56 times harder to obtain, so we might expect CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 to be about 1/56th the value of CGC 9.4 AF #15, or about 2%. 

Those two "do the math" estimates put CGC 9.4 TMNT #1 somewhere between 2% to 6% of the value of CGC 9.4 AF #15.  Seems like 10% (one-tenth) might be hard to justify (with math) long-term unless something significantly changes on the CGC census.

When prices aren't based on math, then it doesn't make any difference --- the selling price is whatever the market decides --- but eventually, the numbers tend to resemble something rational even when they're based on fictional characters from different generations. 

Shouldn't you be using the data for 9.8 TMNT & a 9.6 AF or even a 9.4 as the 9.6 is a white elephant.

I was replying to @tvindy where he was specifically comparing TMNT #1 9.4 to AF #15 9.4.

If you wanted to compare "highest graded" (which is a totally different animal - highest graded rarely follows any logical thought process since there's no ceiling on prices for the absolute highest), you'd want to look at AF #15 CGC 9.6 (4 copies) compared to TMNT #1 CGC 9.8 (31 copies).

There are about 8 times as many "highest graded" for TMNT #1, so one-eighth immediately becomes one consideration.  But we know Spider-Man is a "bigger deal" than TMNT, so one-eighth becomes too high by comparison.  There's not a good "multiplier" to use here... is Spider-Man twice as popular as TMNT?  Is Spider-Man seven times as popular as TMNT?  That variable is an unknown... and the difference between 1/2 of something or 1/7th of something (or some other unknown) is a lot more important than the difference between 9.8 and 9.6, or the difference between 1962 and 1984.

[valiantman]

On 9/13/2020 at 11:28 PM, valiantman said:

On 9/12/2020 at 8:08 PM, I am not Glenda said:

_{I almost forgot I think the # 3 NY print variation is way undervalued when you consider there were only 500 examples}

Definitely.  The CGC 8.0 TMNT #3 NYCC Variant that just ended at $1,375 somehow set a new price record and still looks like a bargain.

According to this page (with the print run information): https://www.miragelicensing.com/comics/mirage/turtlemania/turtlemania.html

TMNT #3 NYCC variant at 500 copies and TMNT #3 regular at 50,000 copies.  This was long before the days of 1:100 variants, but that's what it would be if it was released today.

[tvindy]

29 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I was replying to @tvindy where he was specifically comparing TMNT #1 9.4 to AF #15 9.4.

If you wanted to compare "highest graded" (which is a totally different animal - highest graded rarely follows any logical thought process since there's no ceiling on prices for the absolute highest), you'd want to look at AF #15 CGC 9.6 (4 copies) compared to TMNT #1 CGC 9.8 (31 copies).

There are about 8 times as many "highest graded" for TMNT #1, so one-eighth immediately becomes one consideration.  But we know Spider-Man is a "bigger deal" than TMNT, so one-eighth becomes too high by comparison.  There's not a good "multiplier" to use here... is Spider-Man twice as popular as TMNT?  Is Spider-Man seven times as popular as TMNT?  That variable is an unknown... and the difference between 1/2 of something or 1/7th of something (or some other unknown) is a lot more important than the difference between 9.8 and 9.6, or the difference between 1962 and 1984.

Yes, popularity is really hard to quantify. I just did Google searches for "spider-man" and "teenage mutant ninja turtles." Spider-Man had 824 million results and TMNT had 70.8 million. (Interestingly, "superman" only had 252 million results.) So by that measure, Spider-Man is more than 11 times more popular. Or I suppose a better way of saying it is that the topic of Spider-Man has more than 11 times the engagement of TMNT. But who knows how much this correlates to purchasing comics? TMNT also has been around for a lot less time and may just need a few more years to fully assert itself in the public awareness.

I remember as a child in the late 70s being surprised at how virtually no adults, even younger ones in their twenties, knew anything about Marvel superheroes. They had all heard of Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, and even Aquaman, but if I mentioned Spider-Man or the Fantastic Four or Iron Man, they had no idea. Nowadays, of course, Spider-Man is right up there with Superman. I'm guessing that twenty years from now, TMNT will take its place alongside Superman and Spider-Man.

Edited September 15, 2020 by tvindy

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, tvindy said:

Yes, popularity is really hard to quantify. I just did Google searches for "spider-man" and "teenage mutant ninja turtles." Spider-Man had 824 million results and TMNT had 70.8 million.

Unfortunately, Google is inconsistent when there's a dash/hyphen involved.  To be sure you get exactly what you're looking for, you have to put double-quotes around search terms.

Using Google to search for:    Spider-Man      results in 726million results, but if you put the quotes on it and search for:    "Spider-Man"     you only get 218million results.

What happened?  There are 519million results for Spider.  Those are being included.

TMNT has 61million, "Ninja turtles" (with the double-quotes) has 45million, but some of those pages have both.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles has 78million results, but if you add the double-quotes, "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" results in 39million.

 

In other words, Google isn't as useful for properties and characters which include common words (spider, turtles) as it might appear.

[tvindy]

5 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Unfortunately, Google is inconsistent when there's a dash/hyphen involved.  To be sure you get exactly what you're looking for, you have to put double-quotes around search terms.

Using Google to search for:    Spider-Man      results in 726million results, but if you put the quotes on it and search for:    "Spider-Man"     you only get 218million results.

What happened?  There are 519million results for Spider.  Those are being included.

TMNT has 61million, "Ninja turtles" (with the double-quotes) has 45million, but some of those pages have both.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles has 78million results, but if you add the double-quotes, "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" results in 39million.

 

In other words, Google isn't as useful for properties and characters which include common words (spider, turtles) as it might appear.

Okay, so that means TMNT is between one fifth and one sixth as popular as Spider-Man. 

(I guess it also means that when I google "Mister Mxyzptlk" and get 61,300 results, that is probably very accurate.)