Official TMNT Speculation Thread 14 14

[tvindy]

4 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Are you actually aware of any sale for this book in CGC 9.8 above the $70K mark that would warrant the $88K price estimate as it appears to me to be more of a computerized mathematical algorithm that was flagged and has now been manually corrected.    

No, I'm not. But it is interesting that GSX1 was also adjusted downward at the same time.

[lou_fine]

14 minutes ago, tvindy said:

20 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Are you actually aware of any sale for this book in CGC 9.8 above the $70K mark that would warrant the $88K price estimate as it appears to me to be more of a computerized mathematical algorithm that was flagged and has now been manually corrected.    

No, I'm not. But it is interesting that GSX1 was also adjusted downward at the same time.

That's because you are talking about very high profile books where it's obvious that any computerized mathematical projections that are out of line can easily be spotted and then manually corrected when flagged.  

My concern then is with respect to this entire price estimate model, especially when it comes to the lower profile books that fly under the radar where it's not quite so obvious to catch all of these erroreous computerized estimates.  

With respect to that very high profile and record setting $90K TMNT 1 sale through Heritage, makes me wonder how valid it really was when it resold later through a discreet off the radar non-auction sale via another auction house for only $59K after the market for the book had jumped from the mid to high $30K's into the $50K+ price point after that record setting HA auction result?  

Edited September 24, 2020 by lou_fine

[tvindy]

21 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

My concern then is with respect to this entire price estimate model, especially when it comes to the lower profile books that fly under the radar where it's not quite so obvious to catch all of these erroreous computerized estimates.  

So your concern isn't limited just to gocollect but even GPA. Since you have to pay a subscription fee to use GPA, that makes it a much more serious problem.What about Overstreet? Do they model prices in a similar way, or do they use more hard data?

[valiantman]

54 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

It is rather obvious that there are some rather questionable speculators out there trying their best to falsely manipulate the price of this book.  Are you actually aware of any sale for this book in CGC 9.8 above the $70K mark that would warrant the $88K price estimate as it appears to me to be more of a computerized mathematical algorithm that was flagged and has now been manually corrected.    

It doesn't make any sense to try to manipulate the price of CGC 9.8 TMNT #1, since speculators don't exactly have a stack of them to sell.  A stack doesn't exist.

If any manipulation is working, it's on the third printings.  Dozens of sales have occurred recently, all at multiples of decades of pricing norms.

While there's an argument that if the top grade of the first printings could be manipulated, it would raise the values of all the other grades and printings... but that's a stretch.

Whoever would be "cashing in" on the manipulation of CGC 9.8 TMNT #1 pricing would have to have them in the first place.  That's even more unlikely.

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, tvindy said:

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

My concern then is with respect to this entire price estimate model, especially when it comes to the lower profile books that fly under the radar where it's not quite so obvious to catch all of these erroreous computerized estimates.  

So your concern isn't limited just to gocollect but even GPA. Since you have to pay a subscription fee to use GPA, that makes it a much more serious problem.What about Overstreet? Do they model prices in a similar way, or do they use more hard data?

Not sure why you would even compare GPA and GoCollect with Overstreet because everybody in the hobby knows that they are two completely different animals that seeks to do completely different things.  

GPA and GoCollect seeks to capture real time prices in the marketplace based upon the last final sale and the average prices based upon the most recent sales.  Overstreet, on the other hand, seeks to report on previous prices that have occurred over the past year(s) and will slowly increase them in the guide when there is clear and obvious evidence of price consolidation over an extended period of time (i.e. years).  This serves to show an ever increasing trajectory in prices over the long terms as Overstreet has obviously been very successful in using this technique to help nuture the growth and health of the vintage collectible comic book market over the past 50 years with virtually no interruption at all.    

If you are talking about price guides, I would have to say that GPA and Go Collect is much more similar to the old Wizard price guides in terms of trying to capture the most recent prices.  Needless to say, many of those previously double digit and even triple digit valuation books back in tose days can now be had  in the dollar boxes.  Of course, they probably also went a bit overboard in terms of being caught with their pants down several time as some of their Top Hot books reported for the months with huge inflated prices never ever even ended up hitting the shelves of the LCS's as scheduled due to unplanned distribution problems.  

[tvindy]

32 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Not sure why you would even compare GPA and GoCollect with Overstreet because everybody in the hobby knows that they are two completely different animals that seeks to do completely different things.  

Mostly I just wanted to know if you thought we would be better off going by Overstreet values. And I think that was a definite yes. 

[valiantman]

38 minutes ago, tvindy said:

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Not sure why you would even compare GPA and GoCollect with Overstreet because everybody in the hobby knows that they are two completely different animals that seeks to do completely different things.  

Mostly I just wanted to know if you thought we would be better off going by Overstreet values. And I think that was a definite yes. 

Overstreet values aren't useful for CGC graded books.

[tvindy]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

Overstreet values aren't useful for CGC graded books.

Excellent point. That hadn't even occurred to me. 

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, tvindy said:

4 hours ago, valiantman said:

Overstreet values aren't useful for CGC graded books.

Excellent point. That hadn't even occurred to me. 

Well, the only time that I would agree with this sentiment is with respect to Modern Age books in CGC 9.4 grades and above which Overstreet clearly has stated that his guide is not intended for due to the high volatility for books in condition levels above his top of guide 9.2 grades.  

With respect to vintage collectible comic books though, I strongly believe that Overstreet values do in fact reflect CGC graded books to a certain extent, as per the following post I made in another thread yesterday:  

On 9/22/2020 at 10:19 PM, lou_fine said:

I have heard this same sentiment expressed so many times by so many collectors, but where in the world does it actually state this?  

I believe the only time this statement was actually true was in the last century before slabbed books came into the marketplace and all books were sold raw back then.  When was the last time you actually saw high dollar value GA books being sold, especially when it comes to the keys?  Or for even that matter, high dollar value SA keys or even more recent books like Hulk 181 or Spidey 129.  If you take a look at some of the sample key sales that Overstreet lists in his guide, you can see 3 full page of slabbed certified sales as opposed to only 1 page for raw sales. 

My personal belief is that the Overstreet valuations is based more upon prices for both raw sales and certified sales and is very heavily weighted towards the sales method that is most common for a particular book.  So, this means that the valuation for a book like Action 1 or 'Tec 27 as extreme examples, are really based heavily upon slabbed prices because who in the world sells their copies of these 2 books raw.  On the other hand, low dollar value books would be heavily weighted by their raw prices because no rational collector would think of even bothering to slab these types of books for sale because the cost of salbbing them would be higher than what they would sell for unless they were in uber HG condition which is a condition level that Overstreet does not cover because prices are too volatile in this grade range.  Or at least that's the way that I see it.  

I believe the reason why most collectors think the prices must be based upon unslabbed books is due to the simple fact that Overstreet likes to lag the market and doesn't really like to increase prices too fast until he sees solid consolidation of prices at that level over an extended period of time (i.e. for a few years at least).  This method to his madness in terms of pricing allows him to continuously nuture and guide the comic book market upwards in a seemingly never ending trajectory as he seemingly hates to ever show any price decreases.    

 

 

 

[spracknetch23]

On 9/23/2020 at 4:47 PM, Hezi said:

Any input on some overlooked issues from the original run? I see #53 and #56 are now listed as keys on key collector when they weren’t previously listed just a few weeks ago. Any idea as to why?

I would say Tales of the TMNT volume one  #4 and #6, which feature the first appearances of villains Rat King and Leatherhead, who have appeared in almost every Tmnt incarnation in the past 30 years. 

[Ryan.]

What does Overstreet have as the value of TMNT 1 in NM? 

[valiantman]

2 hours ago, Ryan. said:

What does Overstreet have as the value of TMNT 1 in NM? 

$6,250 for 9.0

$8,000 for 9.2

[Ryan.]

12 minutes ago, valiantman said:

$6,250 for 9.0

$8,000 for 9.2

Let's just say that, as a buyer I love using Overstreet and as a seller I run. 

[tvindy]

25 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

Let's just say that, as a buyer I love using Overstreet and as a seller I run. 

I think that (as lou_fine said) it really depends on the age of the comic. TMNT1's price spiked so quickly that Overstreet hasn't yet been able to react. And even in the next edition, the price will still be a bit on the low end as a hedge against volatility. But if you want to purchase or sell an older more established book, like Action Comics #1, I would imagine the guide would be quite useful.

[Ryan.]

4 minutes ago, tvindy said:

I think that (as lou_fine said) it really depends on the age of the comic. TMNT1's price spiked so quickly that Overstreet hasn't yet been able to react. And even in the next edition, the price will still be a bit on the low end as a hedge against volatility. But if you want to purchase or sell an older more established book, like Action Comics #1, I would imagine the guide would be quite useful.

One of the LCS owners around here uses eBay as his guide when pricing his inventory, and uses Overstreet when purchasing. 

[tvindy]

2 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

One of the LCS owners around here uses eBay as his guide when pricing his inventory, and uses Overstreet when purchasing. 

Sounds fair. Dealers need to be able to buy for less than they sell. And people who sell to dealers probably understand that if they wanted to put in more time and effort and take a small risk, they could probably get more by selling on eBay.

[WolverineX]

6 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

One of the LCS owners around here uses eBay as his guide when pricing his inventory, and uses Overstreet when purchasing. 

All of them do ..

[lou_fine]

20 hours ago, tvindy said:

21 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Not sure why you would even compare GPA and GoCollect with Overstreet because everybody in the hobby knows that they are two completely different animals that seeks to do completely different things.  

Mostly I just wanted to know if you thought we would be better off going by Overstreet values. And I think that was a definite yes. 

Yes, yes , and most definitely a big YES in certain situations.  

Perfect case in point being if I was ever lucky enough to come across a vintage collection like the Edgar Curch Mile High Collection.  First thing I would do is run down to my LCS and snap up the Facsimilie copy of Overstreet #1, run back to the house and point out the 2020 publication date to the owner, explain to them that those are actually full retail prices listed in there and he is in fact trying to wholesale the books to be.  I would then explain to the lucky owner that being the honest and upstanding person that I am, I would be willing to pay them full guide prices  and not be like that unscrupulous Chuck Rozanski who got away with paying only cover price or a whole dime for each of those books.  No doubt realizing that I would pay a whopping $300 for his Action 1 instead of only a dime, let alone all of the other books, would surely be more than enough to have us both dancing for joy in the streets.

End of story dream!!!  

Seriously though, Overstreet is really nothing more than just a guide, especially since certain in demand books will sell at multiples to condition guide while others that have fallen out of favor will be luck to even fetch guide in today's very robust marketplace.  So, bottom-line is that you really need to know the marketplace and especially the books that you are interested in and where it fits in when it comes to today's marketplace.    

[tvindy]

3 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

No doubt realizing that I would pay a whopping $300 for his Action 1 instead of only a dime, let alone all of the other books, would surely be more than enough to have us both dancing for joy in the streets.

Um, is Action #1 listed by Overstreet as being worth $300 in 2020? 

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, Ryan. said:

Let's just say that, as a buyer I love using Overstreet and as a seller I run. 

This is actually a very interesting comment and shows how much the comic book marketplace has changed over the decades.  

I still remember when I first started back in the mid-70's and looked at the guide prices and would hope for the day that I could sell some of my books for that kind of price. 

Now I look at the guide prices and just wish that I would be lucky enough to be able to pick up the vintage collectible books I want for anywhere close to those prices.