Official TMNT Speculation Thread 14 14

[valiantman]

12 minutes ago, manetteska said:

It looks like Gator sold 3 copies recently. Can ask him what he thinks about shenanigans. 

Maybe @G.A.tor will drop by. 

[G.A.tor]

25 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Maybe @G.A.tor will drop by. 

I’ve had a tremendous interest in my copies over past year. I felt the market was prime to sell...so I did. I had traded one of my 8.0s Earlier in the year for a 2.5 af15. I thought I got the better end of the trade by a mile. Turned out was a pretty even deal. 
no idea what shenanigans are going on, I actually consulted with Ali of elite about retails. I paid so little for these copies years ago that I didn’t need to be greedy 

Edited September 30, 2020 by G.A.tor

[valiantman]

23 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

I had traded one of my 8.0s Earlier in the year for a 2.5 af15. I thought I got the better end of the trade by a mile. Turned out was a pretty even deal.

I'm the "questionably-intelligent" guy who traded a 4.0 AF15 for a 9.6 TMNT 1 when they were both worth about $9K in 2014.  It looked very bad for me when 4.0 AF15 went to $35K in 2017, but it's back below $25K now.  I don't think $25K will buy a 9.6 TMNT #1, so I might be ahead at the moment.  My reasoning wasn't that TMNT is bigger than Spider-Man.  TMNT will never be bigger than Spider-Man.  TMNT #1 is the biggest book from my lifetime, and there were fewer than 50 copies at 9.6 or higher (currently just 76).  If there are 100 guys like me, there aren't enough TMNT #1 at that grade to satisfy us.  AF15 4.0 had about 600 copies at 4.0 or better at the time, so my logic was more about "future opportunity" if I could only own one of those two books and would like to someday own both.  It was also true that I had two copies of AF15 at the time, so I still had "one of each" after the trade.  I was only into the 4.0 AF15 for $5K and copies of 9.6 TMNT #1 had been selling over $5K since 2005 so it wasn't like I could have put that $5K into a 9.6 TMNT #1 instead.

Ultimately, 4.0 AF15 may beat 9.6 TMNT #1 but I don't think either will ever be $9K again, so I couldn't really lose either way I went.

[manetteska]

40 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

I’ve had a tremendous interest in my copies over past year. I felt the market was prime to sell...so I did. I had traded one of my 8.0s Earlier in the year for a 2.5 af15. I thought I got the better end of the trade by a mile. Turned out was a pretty even deal. 
no idea what shenanigans are going on, I actually consulted with Ali of elite about retails. I paid so little for these copies years ago that I didn’t need to be greedy 

From the post I saw on Instagram, are you able to share the printings and grades of the three copies that sold in a few hours and their prices?

[G.A.tor]

5 minutes ago, manetteska said:

From the post I saw on Instagram, are you able to share the printings and grades of the three copies that sold in a few hours and their prices?

Grades were 8.0w, 8.5ow/w, 9.0w, all first print (I’ve never even owned a second or later)   

My private sales prices are confidential but at least one buyer is a Boardie, I believe , so if he wants to post what he paid, cool. 

As mentioned I didn’t try to maximize realized prices but I felt I got a very fair retail for each 
 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by G.A.tor

[GM8]

12 hours ago, valiantman said:

I'm the "questionably-intelligent" guy who traded a 4.0 AF15 for a 9.6 TMNT 1 when they were both worth about $9K in 2014.  It looked very bad for me when 4.0 AF15 went to $35K in 2017, but it's back below $25K now.  I don't think $25K will buy a 9.6 TMNT #1, so I might be ahead at the moment.  My reasoning wasn't that TMNT is bigger than Spider-Man.  TMNT will never be bigger than Spider-Man.  TMNT #1 is the biggest book from my lifetime, and there were fewer than 50 copies at 9.6 or higher (currently just 76).  If there are 100 guys like me, there aren't enough TMNT #1 at that grade to satisfy us.  AF15 4.0 had about 600 copies at 4.0 or better at the time, so my logic was more about "future opportunity" if I could only own one of those two books and would like to someday own both.  It was also true that I had two copies of AF15 at the time, so I still had "one of each" after the trade.  I was only into the 4.0 AF15 for $5K and copies of 9.6 TMNT #1 had been selling over $5K since 2005 so it wasn't like I could have put that $5K into a 9.6 TMNT #1 instead.

Ultimately, 4.0 AF15 may beat 9.6 TMNT #1 but I don't think either will ever be $9K again, so I couldn't really lose either way I went.

Thanks for sharing this. Most people don't want to talk about anything slightly negative or not "a HUGE win".

 

Speaking of 9.6's, this is the first one publicly for sale in a while. Only $65K!

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtles-1-CGC-9-6-1984-1st-Print-White-Pages-Key-HIGHGRADE/233729980886?hash=item366b6479d6:g:9UwAAOSwe~Jfc7OV

[tvindy]

28 minutes ago, GM8 said:

Thanks for sharing this. Most people don't want to talk about anything slightly negative or not "a HUGE win".

 

Speaking of 9.6's, this is the first one publicly for sale in a while. Only $65K!

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtles-1-CGC-9-6-1984-1st-Print-White-Pages-Key-HIGHGRADE/233729980886?hash=item366b6479d6:g:9UwAAOSwe~Jfc7OV

It will be interesting to see what happens. Probably it will either be snapped up right away, or it won't sell at all.

[valiantman]

 

1 minute ago, tvindy said:

31 minutes ago, GM8 said:

Speaking of 9.6's, this is the first one publicly for sale in a while. Only $65K!

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtles-1-CGC-9-6-1984-1st-Print-White-Pages-Key-HIGHGRADE/233729980886?hash=item366b6479d6:g:9UwAAOSwe~Jfc7OV

It will be interesting to see what happens. Probably it will either be snapped up right away, or it won't sell at all.

I don't think the market is ready for $65K on a 9.6, and there's no "Best Offer" option on this one to offer half and see if the seller was really only looking for $32.5K.

[rckstr1253]

Well it looks like the 2nd and 3rd printings are no longer hot

[Schmakt]

I skipped a few pages, so apologies if this was mentioned, but I've wondered why Tales #6 never seems to get any love...

1st Leatherhead in a pretty solid story with always-stellar B&W art by Lawson, and some big names doing pinups.

Only 22 graded with 3 in 9.8 (1 SS). Wish I'd been paying attention this summer when it looks like someone graded and sold a stack... I'd love to give someone $60-something for a 9.8!

While on Tales... and although not Copper... vol 2 #70?

I had the only 9.8 copy for a while, and then one popped up and sold for 400. That brought a few out and down to 275. Does that book have any staying power?

Will any of volume 4 be $$, especially those last few with the super small print runs?

[valiantman]

7 hours ago, Schmakt said:

I skipped a few pages, so apologies if this was mentioned, but I've wondered why Tales #6 never seems to get any love...

1st Leatherhead in a pretty solid story with always-stellar B&W art by Lawson, and some big names doing pinups.

Only 22 graded with 3 in 9.8 (1 SS). Wish I'd been paying attention this summer when it looks like someone graded and sold a stack... I'd love to give someone $60-something for a 9.8!

While on Tales... and although not Copper... vol 2 #70?

I had the only 9.8 copy for a while, and then one popped up and sold for 400. That brought a few out and down to 275. Does that book have any staying power?

Will any of volume 4 be $$, especially those last few with the super small print runs?

The "problem" (if that is the right word) with TMNT collecting is that most people can't tell the difference between raw copies of TMNT #1 first, second, and third print just looking at the front cover.  Since people are somewhat interested, but not knowledgeable enough to automatically know which version of TMNT #1 they're looking at... there are very few people who can also tell you what happens in the books.  The few that do know and seek out books beyond issue #1 don't often encounter a ton of competition. 

No competition keeps prices low.  Competition comes from collector knowledge.  Knowledge comes from study.  Studying is hard.

Short version:  People are greedy, but lazy.

[Jesse-Lee]

14 minutes ago, valiantman said:

The "problem" (if that is the right word) with TMNT collecting is that most people can't tell the difference between raw copies of TMNT #1 first, second, and third print just looking at the front cover.  Since people are somewhat interested, but not knowledgeable enough to automatically know which version of TMNT #1 they're looking at... there are very few people who can also tell you what happens in the books.  The few that do know and seek out books beyond issue #1 don't often encounter a ton of competition. 

No competition keeps prices low.  Competition comes from collector knowledge.  Knowledge comes from study.  Studying is hard.

Short version:  People are greedy, but lazy.

Do you think other early issues (beyond 2-4, 5 second print, 7 second print) will eventually see a bump in price? It's surprising to me to see #1s going for tens of thousands and other issues early in the run still going for less than $10 in a lot of cases.

[valiantman]

57 minutes ago, Jesse-Lee said:

Do you think other early issues (beyond 2-4, 5 second print, 7 second print) will eventually see a bump in price? It's surprising to me to see #1s going for tens of thousands and other issues early in the run still going for less than $10 in a lot of cases.

I don't think key issues for TMNT stories can be under $10 forever, but the definition of "key" is definitely different for people who know TMNT.  After the four turtles, Splinter, April O'Neill, Shredder, maybe Casey Jones, Bebop, Rocksteady, there are very, very few people who know TMNT who can name another character.  That sounds harsh, but those same people can probably only name five characters from Spider-Man:  Peter Parker, Aunt May, Uncle Ben, Mary Jane, Green Goblin... and then they might get stuck.  Venom is an obvious one, but that's from 36 years after Spider-Man was introduced, not exactly an "early issue".

Superfans of these characters can probably name 50 more characters, but the prices generally reflect what the "casual fan" knows.  The demand has to be "broader" than just the superfan to impact the market, or there have to be enough superfans to demand all the supply.

If there are 500 superfans, but a book has 1,000 copies... you will often still see situations where a very limited book containing a first appearance known to superfans (unknown to casual fans) stays a very cheap book for decades.

[Schmakt]

So what's the percentage of "new" fans of the old stuff that is coming from current comics readers vs the nostalgia buyers who now find themselves with money? I generally hate IDW, but I can't deny they've done a great job with the property. Does this bubble only exist while the kids who grew up watching the show have interest, or will there be a new crowd of fans to keep this ball rolling who are coming up on the current crop of stories?

[tvindy]

Thus auction on Comic Link just ended. TMNT #1 went for $14,000. The interesting thing is that the price was bid up to that price in the first few days of the auction, and then it froze there for more than two weeks. I expected some last-minute sniping, but there was none. The last bid was placed on the 13th.

[jeranimal]

28 minutes ago, tvindy said:

Thus auction on Comic Link just ended. TMNT #1 went for $14,000. The interesting thing is that the price was bid up to that price in the first few days of the auction, and then it froze there for more than two weeks. I expected some last-minute sniping, but there was none. The last bid was placed on the 13th.

 

[geofan]

My friend just sold his 9.4 CGC graded copy for close to 30K in a private sale...I was just wondering if he received good money for his copy or

should he have held out for more...Just wondering?

[tvindy]

27 minutes ago, geofan said:

My friend just sold his 9.4 CGC graded copy for close to 30K in a private sale...I was just wondering if he received good money for his copy or

should he have held out for more...Just wondering?

I'd say he did well. That sounds about right for a 9.4.

[ghn999]

I think that a good value!!!

[dem1138]

This book is really hard to peg FMV on as GPA is not capturing a lot of these recent private sales.  From the boards, we know of a 5.0 that sold for 10k+, Mighty joe had an 8.0(?) that he sold(or sold/traded?) in the teens and then Dave & Adam had the 8.5 that sold within in the past week somewhere (seemingly) at or close to 20k as I know they had turned down offers close to that number.  Then we also have the CL 8.0 sale at 14k which seems weak in comparison.  I believe I heard about the 9.4 geofan is referring to and I think it undersold.  If its the same copy I know of, it was being sold out of, I believe, the SF area and the seller offered it to a few people and it sold almost immediately.  Someone else had asked me about that book and when they followed up the day after it was offered to them, it had already sold.  I had encouranged the person to buy it since if the D&A 8.5 was 20(ish) then a 9.4 at 30 seemed like a deal.  Clearly someone else thought the same thing given how quickly it apparently sold.