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Official TMNT Speculation Thread
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1,211 posts in this topic

These prices are nuts.

So the Gobbledygook #1 at HA is $12k (with BP) with 23 days left which is just sick!  The #2 is only at $1k.  I don't get the discrepancy given that they both came out at the same time and there are less #2's on the census verses #1's (yet both being minuscule numbers).  My gut tells me that #2 will go much higher that where it currently sits at... 

 

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15 minutes ago, cbmitch said:

These prices are nuts.

So the Gobbledygook #1 at HA is $12k (with BP) with 23 days left which is just sick!  The #2 is only at $1k.  I don't get the discrepancy given that they both came out at the same time and there are less #2's on the census verses #1's (yet both being minuscule numbers).  My gut tells me that #2 will go much higher that where it currently sits at... 

 

23 days left is a pretty good indication that we don't know anything right now.  The discrepancy isn't an indicator of anything.  Since Gobbledygook #1 says "NOW ON SALE" for TMNT #1 on the back cover, it's an interesting argument that it is "first"... and #2 issues rarely have the exact same release date as #1 issues in this industry.

There are so few copies, these two books are destined to always be "outliers", no matter what the market seems to be saying.

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15 hours ago, valiantman said:

23 days left is a pretty good indication that we don't know anything right now.  The discrepancy isn't an indicator of anything.  Since Gobbledygook #1 says "NOW ON SALE" for TMNT #1 on the back cover, it's an interesting argument that it is "first"... and #2 issues rarely have the exact same release date as #1 issues in this industry.

There are so few copies, these two books are destined to always be "outliers", no matter what the market seems to be saying.

I agree with what you are saying.  My only point is that it seems the first inclination is to give the GG #1 all the love when, it seems, the loved should be shared to both #1 and #2.  Not the 12:1 ratio that is currently is (yes, I am referring to the price with BP) so, at this point knowing what we know, that #2 is a steal at that price.  Both the books have "now on sale" and everything I have read tells me there were "released" at the same time.  Also, census shows five #1's and only two #2's.

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1 hour ago, cbmitch said:

I agree with what you are saying.  My only point is that it seems the first inclination is to give the GG #1 all the love when, it seems, the loved should be shared to both #1 and #2.  Not the 12:1 ratio that is currently is (yes, I am referring to the price with BP) so, at this point knowing what we know, that #2 is a steal at that price.  Both the books have "now on sale" and everything I have read tells me there were "released" at the same time.  Also, census shows five #1's and only two #2's.

It's just far too early in the auction to say anything about the ratio.  All the days up to the actual auction are pretty much just a commercial for the "lowest possible price" to build excitement or interest.  With 22 days left, it's like trying to describe a marathon outcome by the runner positions around their fourth mile.

Edited by valiantman
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8 hours ago, valiantman said:

It's just far too early in the auction to say anything about the ratio.  All the days up to the actual auction are pretty much just a commercial for the "lowest possible price" to build excitement or interest.  With 22 days left, it's like trying to describe a marathon outcome by the runner positions around their fourth mile.

Nope, not predicting the outcome in any way as things can change in  the 22 days that are left.  Only commenting on all the love that GG #1 gets out of the gate while GG #2, which was released at the same time, doesn't seem to get the same attention.  Again, that may change and I would expect the spread to tighten up as we get towards the end.

To use your marathon analogy,  I simply commented on the fact that it is note worthy that one runner is at mile 12 while the other runner is at mile 1 with both runners being fairly comparable. 

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13 hours ago, cbmitch said:

Nope, not predicting the outcome in any way as things can change in  the 22 days that are left.  Only commenting on all the love that GG #1 gets out of the gate while GG #2, which was released at the same time, doesn't seem to get the same attention.  Again, that may change and I would expect the spread to tighten up as we get towards the end.

To use your marathon analogy,  I simply commented on the fact that it is note worthy that one runner is at mile 12 while the other runner is at mile 1 with both runners being fairly comparable. 

You may be the only one who believes Gobbledygook #2 deserves to be anywhere close to Gobbledygook #1.  It reminds me of the argument that Hulk #182 is part of a "trilogy" of 1st appearance Wolverine books, despite the fact that Hulk #182 shows Wolverine after the fight is over and he leaves immediately.  At least Hulk #180 is something that is definitely pre-Hulk #181.  We don't even know if Gobbledygook #1 is pre-TMNT #1... and we certainly don't know why Gobbledygook #2 would be.

That being said - hypothetically - if GG #1 ends around $21K and GG#2 ends around $10K, they're "already equal" at this point in the auction, being $9K from where they would eventually finish.

Edited by valiantman
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On 11/17/2020 at 2:04 PM, valiantman said:

Looks like the seller pulled the 8.0 --- probably wanting to see how Heritage 7.0 finishes today and then recalculate (raise the 8.0 price).

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1 hour ago, ghn999 said:

The $12K isn't the cost/sale price - including the Buyer's Premium (required to buy the book), the price is already at $14,400.

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3 hours ago, valiantman said:
5 hours ago, ghn999 said:

The $12K isn't the cost/sale price - including the Buyer's Premium (required to buy the book), the price is already at $14,400.

Final price $15,600 with BP for the CGC 7.0

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12 hours ago, valiantman said:

Final price $15,600 with BP for the CGC 7.0

GoCollect lists a 7.0 as selling for $7000. So that's more than twice as much. I wonder if all their TMNT listings are off by that much. Hmmm. If a 9.6 is listed on GoCollect for $26,000, does that mean a copy would actually sell for over $50,000? It's nice to think it would. hm 

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34 minutes ago, tvindy said:

GoCollect lists a 7.0 as selling for $7000. So that's more than twice as much. I wonder if all their TMNT listings are off by that much. Hmmm. If a 9.6 is listed on GoCollect for $26,000, does that mean a copy would actually sell for over $50,000? It's nice to think it would. hm 

All the price guides are just guides and are months/years out of date. The market is what dictates the prices right now and a 7.0 at $15600 puts a 9.4 at around $40000 give or take 10%...

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5 minutes ago, pubmonkey said:

All the price guides are just guides and are months/years out of date. The market is what dictates the prices right now and a 7.0 at $15600 puts a 9.4 at around $40000 give or take 10%...

But I was talking about a 9.6.

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15 hours ago, valiantman said:

Final price $15,600 with BP for the CGC 7.0

That's pretty impressive and really a strong indication of just how strong TMNT 1st prints are in any grade this past year. I wonder what a breakdown would be of the current REAL FMV on #1 1st prints in all grades, it's just hard to know right now.

Edited by I am not Glenda
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2 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

Thanks, going to be interesting to see where this lands as its a FB sale & not a major auction house. If it ends at 18k the buyer got a deal based on the results of the 7.0 imho, good luck to all!

Looks like it ended at 18K. No idea if Steve is happy with that or not. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be...

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