Official TMNT Speculation Thread 14 14

[WolverineX]

27 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

It's not a perfect mechanism to gauge value but if the 8.5 sold for $22,200 then that creates a price-per-point guide of around $2600 per point. Give the 8.5 a slight bump upwards since the higher the grade the more likely it is for escalators to kick in. So, let's say $2500 per point based on recent sales. That makes a 5.0 worth $12,500. That feels realistic to me.

I wonder what's the minimum you would have to spend to even get a first print?  Are there any 0.5s?

[Ryan.]

5 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

I wonder what's the minimum you would have to spend to even get a first print?  Are there any 0.5s?

There's a few 2.0s on the census. I could see a bunch of people aggressively bidding something like that up since it would be the cheapest way to get a copy. 

[WolverineX]

5 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

There's a few 2.0s on the census. I could see a bunch of people aggressively bidding something like that up since it would be the cheapest way to get a copy. 

Do we know what the last 2.0 sold for?

[Ryan.]

7 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

Do we know what the last 2.0 sold for?

No recorded sales I don't think. 

[Subby1938]

I wouldn’t pay that money for any of those grades. It’s ludicrous . You can get silver age keys that will yield better long term payouts than this spec driven madness . Seriously 5.0 is 12K now ? Two years ago 9.0 was 5K. These books keep getting recycled meaning wealthy flippers buy then keep reselling at premiums . No way this is real . I’d like someone to keep track of the cgc ID numbers let’s see how this plays out 

[Hulksdaddy1]

3 hours ago, Subby1938 said:

I wouldn’t pay that money for any of those grades. It’s ludicrous . You can get silver age keys that will yield better long term payouts than this spec driven madness . Seriously 5.0 is 12K now ? Two years ago 9.0 was 5K. These books keep getting recycled meaning wealthy flippers buy then keep reselling at premiums . No way this is real . I’d like someone to keep track of the cgc ID numbers let’s see how this plays out 

I think you're missing something here. TMNT is a key, same as any SA key. The turtles are right up there with the Marvel heroes in name recognition. Plus, the generation that's entering their prime money-making years is the generation of TMNT. 

Plus, TMNT #1 is rare. Much rarer than most Marvel keys. There are 1000 #1s graded, 1/3 of the entire print run. How many more are out there? No one knows, but I know we can all assume that many are destroyed, or mangled. Tough book to keep nice. What are we going to top out at, slabbed? 1200? 1500? Probably not that high.

Compare it to ASM #1. Over 4100 on the census, 1000 more than TMNT's printed. Yes, rarer in high grade, but that's to be expected with a book that's 21 years older. But, TMNT is now almost 40, not a new book by any stretch. A 9.0 ASM1 just sold for $115k here on the boards. And it doesn't even have a major 1st appearance.

Of course, Spidey is King, top dog, and the TMNT isn't on his level, popularity-wise. But, there are far fewer TMNT1 compared to ASM1. or AF15.

TMNT1 is the King of the CA, and I think it has far more room to grow, even after these prices.

IMO, of course. I could always be wrong.  

Edited April 3, 2021 by Hulksdaddy1

[tvindy]

8 hours ago, Hulksdaddy1 said:

TMNT1 is the King of the CA, and I think it has far more room to grow, even after these prices.

Yes, and even though we may very well be entering a collectibles bubble, I think TMNT1 is probably one of the safest titles to hold onto due to its scarcity and how iconic it is.

[valiantman]

18 hours ago, Ryan. said:

18 hours ago, Sauce Dog said:

5.0 is 10k minimum. I sold mine for that early last year just as things started to get crazy and could have easily got more had I waited a month or so more. I would say 5.0 is anywhere from to $12k-15k now.

It's not a perfect mechanism to gauge value but if the 8.5 sold for $22,200 then that creates a price-per-point guide of around $2600 per point. Give the 8.5 a slight bump upwards since the higher the grade the more likely it is for escalators to kick in. So, let's say $2500 per point based on recent sales. That makes a 5.0 worth $12,500. That feels realistic to me.

You're right to use the 8.5 as the baseline.  Once you get to 9.0, the price jumped $4K, then at 9.2, it jumped $6K.  Generally speaking, the prices from about 3.0 to 7.0 are usually very close to "price-per-point" and then around 8.0 there can be a premium with true keys (AF #15, for sure, but also other Silver keys and now TMNT #1 is in that range).  I feel like there's a base price for 1.0 (complete books with heavy damage) that is higher than the value of a 1.0 increase from 3.0 to 4.0, for example, but once you get above "good" (above 2.0) and stay below "very fine" (below 8.0), the market is settling into a predictable price calculation.  4.0s are basically two times 2.0s, 6.0s are basically 150% of 4.0s, etc.

[WolverineX]

12 hours ago, Hulksdaddy1 said:

I think you're missing something here. TMNT is a key, same as any SA key. The turtles are right up there with the Marvel heroes in name recognition. Plus, the generation that's entering their prime money-making years is the generation of TMNT. 

Plus, TMNT #1 is rare. Much rarer than most Marvel keys. There are 1000 #1s graded, 1/3 of the entire print run. How many more are out there? No one knows, but I know we can all assume that many are destroyed, or mangled. Tough book to keep nice. What are we going to top out at, slabbed? 1200? 1500? Probably not that high.

Compare it to ASM #1. Over 4100 on the census, 1000 more than TMNT's printed. Yes, rarer in high grade, but that's to be expected with a book that's 21 years older. But, TMNT is now almost 40, not a new book by any stretch. A 9.0 ASM1 just sold for $115k here on the boards. And it doesn't even have a major 1st appearance.

Of course, Spidey is King, top dog, and the TMNT isn't on his level, popularity-wise. But, there are far fewer TMNT1 compared to ASM1. or AF15.

TMNT1 is the King of the CA, and I think it has far more room to grow, even after these prices.

IMO, of course. I could always be wrong.  

You are not wrong.  TMNT 1 first print is as blue chip as you can get.  3000 copies.  It's still undervalued. Honestly, more kids with money growing up with much rather have a TMNT 1 first print then a FF1.  

[Subby1938]

23 hours ago, Hulksdaddy1 said:

I think you're missing something here. TMNT is a key, same as any SA key. The turtles are right up there with the Marvel heroes in name recognition. Plus, the generation that's entering their prime money-making years is the generation of TMNT. 

Plus, TMNT #1 is rare. Much rarer than most Marvel keys. There are 1000 #1s graded, 1/3 of the entire print run. How many more are out there? No one knows, but I know we can all assume that many are destroyed, or mangled. Tough book to keep nice. What are we going to top out at, slabbed? 1200? 1500? Probably not that high.

Compare it to ASM #1. Over 4100 on the census, 1000 more than TMNT's printed. Yes, rarer in high grade, but that's to be expected with a book that's 21 years older. But, TMNT is now almost 40, not a new book by any stretch. A 9.0 ASM1 just sold for $115k here on the boards. And it doesn't even have a major 1st appearance.

Of course, Spidey is King, top dog, and the TMNT isn't on his level, popularity-wise. But, there are far fewer TMNT1 compared to ASM1. or AF15.

TMNT1 is the King of the CA, and I think it has far more room to grow, even after these prices.

IMO, of course. I could always be wrong.  

I’m not missing anything . It’s always been rare . Why the sudden surge into the realm of unattainable . 70% or more of the books graded are all high grade 7.0 and up so it’s not that rare in grade . The second prints and third prints are same book and tbh the second prints are way rarer than the first in cgc yet they don’t get nearly the value . I’m kinda waiting for bottom to fallout here . If I owned today I’d def be selling and buying lower grade copies again . 
 

as for kids now being of age to buy .... wtf are people smoking ? Entry level on this book is like 10K how many people buy books at that price point ? Not many sorry ! The only people buying these are dealers , auction houses or Uber wealthy collectors not kids!!! 

Edited April 4, 2021 by Subby1938

[I am not Glenda]

On 4/2/2021 at 10:52 PM, Hulksdaddy1 said:

I think you're missing something here. TMNT is a key, same as any SA key. The turtles are right up there with the Marvel heroes in name recognition. Plus, the generation that's entering their prime money-making years is the generation of TMNT. 

Plus, TMNT #1 is rare. Much rarer than most Marvel keys. There are 1000 #1s graded, 1/3 of the entire print run. How many more are out there? No one knows, but I know we can all assume that many are destroyed, or mangled. Tough book to keep nice. What are we going to top out at, slabbed? 1200? 1500? Probably not that high.

Compare it to ASM #1. Over 4100 on the census, 1000 more than TMNT's printed. Yes, rarer in high grade, but that's to be expected with a book that's 21 years older. But, TMNT is now almost 40, not a new book by any stretch. A 9.0 ASM1 just sold for $115k here on the boards. And it doesn't even have a major 1st appearance.

Of course, Spidey is King, top dog, and the TMNT isn't on his level, popularity-wise. But, there are far fewer TMNT1 compared to ASM1. or AF15.

TMNT1 is the King of the CA, and I think it has far more room to grow, even after these prices.

IMO, of course. I could always be wrong.  

IMHO before anyone says " I wouldn’t pay that money for any of those grades. It’s ludicrous " They should go look up the current prices being paid for...... ASM #300, Ultimate Fallout Variants or a dozen other "hot keys" if they want to really see ludicrous. TMNT #1 1st print has only just begun it's assentation to the top ( for all the many reasons noted on this thread a million times) and regardless of what happens to the market in the short term this is the book you want to own a decade from now in any grade you can afford. What it used to be 5 years ago means crapola & the same generation that is paying 100K for sealed Nintendo games is the same generation going to be buying TMNT books. ps sell every Romance comic you own yea I know a "Matt Baker cover is classic" it is, but guess what? In 20 years nobody alive will care......... Anyone want my Roy Rogers comics? I will sell them with my Dell Bugs Bunnies...cheap!

Edited April 4, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[Hulksdaddy1]

1 hour ago, Subby1938 said:

I’m not missing anything . It’s always been rare . Why the sudden surge into the realm of unattainable . 70% or more of the books graded are all high grade 7.0 and up so it’s not that rare in grade . The second prints and third prints are same book and tbh the second prints are way rarer than the first in cgc yet they don’t get nearly the value . I’m kinda waiting for bottom to fallout here . If I owned today I’d def be selling and buying lower grade copies again . 
 

as for kids now being of age to buy .... wtf are people smoking ? Entry level on this book is like 10K how many people buy books at that price point ? Not many sorry ! The only people buying these are dealers , auction houses or Uber wealthy collectors not kids!!! 

The surge is happening for all books. XM1, FF1, IH181 etc. All with far higher print runs than TMNT1, and all with far more books graded than TMNT1.

2nd and 3rd prints? C'mon. Not first print. 6000 2nd, 35k 3rd. Rare in CGC because they were too cheap to grade. Let's revisit those numbers end of the year.

And yes, it is that generation buying. They're in their 30's, some making bank, and they're buying. Bunch of them are crypto kids, and doing well. I know a bunch of them myself.

If you're waiting for this book to come down, might as well write it off your list. This book has corrected. Up. Not all corrections are down. TMNT1, FF1, XM1 were undervalued. Not anymore.

[Subby1938]

Let’s do that . The second print is way rarer in any grade . Numbers prove it 

 

crypto kids my a—!

Edited April 5, 2021 by Subby1938

[Subby1938]

23 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

IMHO before anyone says " I wouldn’t pay that money for any of those grades. It’s ludicrous " They should go look up the current prices being paid for...... ASM #300, Ultimate Fallout Variants or a dozen other "hot keys" if they want to really see ludicrous. TMNT #1 1st print has only just begun it's assentation to the top ( for all the many reasons noted on this thread a million times) and regardless of what happens to the market in the short term this is the book you want to own a decade from now in any grade you can afford. What it used to be 5 years ago means crapola & the same generation that is paying 100K for sealed Nintendo games is the same generation going to be buying TMNT books. ps sell every Romance comic you own yea I know a "Matt Baker cover is classic" it is, but guess what? In 20 years nobody alive will care......... Anyone want my Roy Rogers comics? I will sell them with my Dell Bugs Bunnies...cheap!

According to that theory in 20 years time the kids that grew up with miles morales will want his books and Tmnt will be new Roy Rogers ? What’s your point ? It’s Tmnt time now ? 40 years in I hope so but 100K for 9.8 or other high grades in the price points they are fetching is pretty nuts . Why haven’t issues 2-4 followed ? Early TMNT and important imo . The generation that grew up Tmnt I’d love to meet people 40 or under paying 60K and up for top tier grades . It’s laughable . 

[Hulksdaddy1]

16 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

Let’s do that . The second print is way rarer in any grade . Numbers prove it 

 

crypto kids my a—!

Done. Yes, numbers prove it. 6000 2nd to 3000 1st. 1st is way rarer, in any grade. CGC will show that, eventually. You're not one of those low pop guys, are ya? "Only two 9.8s!" "Yeah, only 3 graded bro." 

 

 

[Hulksdaddy1]

22 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

According to that theory in 20 years time the kids that grew up with miles morales will want his books and Tmnt will be new Roy Rogers ? What’s your point ? It’s Tmnt time now ? 40 years in I hope so but 100K for 9.8 or other high grades in the price points they are fetching is pretty nuts . Why haven’t issues 2-4 followed ? Early TMNT and important imo . The generation that grew up Tmnt I’d love to meet people 40 or under paying 60K and up for top tier grades . It’s laughable . 

What do you mean? Those are all rising. But all had larger print runs. So there's that. 

Dude, did the Turtles touch you in a bad place? 

[I am not Glenda]

16 hours ago, Subby1938 said:

According to that theory in 20 years time the kids that grew up with miles morales will want his books and Tmnt will be new Roy Rogers ? What’s your point ? It’s Tmnt time now ? 40 years in I hope so but 100K for 9.8 or other high grades in the price points they are fetching is pretty nuts . Why haven’t issues 2-4 followed ? Early TMNT and important imo . The generation that grew up Tmnt I’d love to meet people 40 or under paying 60K and up for top tier grades . It’s laughable . 

No that's not my theory its a fact & what's laughable is just because you don't happen to know any 40 year olds who are putting down that kind of money you assume it's not happening. I mean this sincerely let me know if you want to get in touch with a few of them and you can look at there collections, I know a guy who is 44 yrs old and last week dropped 90K on a Jordon collection and another buddy of mine who is in his 40s (a Dentist) dropped 100k on a prototype Bobba Fett Action figure recently. Another fact is TMNT #2-4 ,Ralph, #3 variant (2nd & 3rd prints) and any of the Gobbly books have all had substantial increases over the same time frame as #1 first print better yet  just go take a look at the TMNT Archie #1 these days ( this was a $1 bin book not to long ago). I mean its just crazy for anyone to assume this is not real or its some dealer/auction house manipulation. Drop in on Heritage recent sales & take a look at Nintendo sales, Magic the gathering or the big dog Pokemon. I guess that's all the 60 year olds who just happen to be part of a Pikachu investment firm? 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[I am not Glenda]

It's almost like some collectors want to see the bottom fall out to say see I told you so....its the same crapola I have herd for almost 4 decades of being a collector.

"I don't need anyone to grade my books", "I would never pay that for a comic", "I only buy what I love", "I don't buy my comics for investment". 

F A N T A S T I C ...enjoy your collection anyway you want! 

The problem is those same collectors never seem to comprehend that there reality of the hobby isn't the only version.

When you were young and your heart
Was an open book
You used to say live and let live  GNR after Paul.

Edited April 5, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[Sam 1983]

I’m 38 and have spent over 300,000 on comics over the last 5 years.  Grew up a huge TMNT fan.  Did get my 8.5 1st pint for almost 8,000 a couple years back.   Point is though, there are plenty of 30 somethings doing well enough to buy some big books.  

[Parabellum]

1 hour ago, I am not Glenda said:

It's almost like some collectors want to see the bottom fall out to say see I told you so....its the same crapola I have herd for almost 4 decades of being a collector.

"I don't need anyone to grade my books", "I would never pay that for a comic", "I only buy what I love", "I don't buy my comics for investment". 

F A N T A S T I C ...enjoy your collection anyway you want! 

The problem is those same collectors never seem to comprehend that there reality of the hobby isn't the only version.

When you were young and your heart
Was an open book
You used to say live and let live  GNR after Paul.

They’re also the same ones that if they had purchased said book when it was cheap they’d be toting, “finally this book is getting the recognition it deserves.”