Supply and Sales Trends 0

[Peter L]

Hi all,

I thought the last Heritage auction had some good stuff as usual.  I thought this coming auction seemed sparse, and the catalogs were very thin.

I got a letter from Heritage saying they would pay me more than my share for pieces above a certain price, which would include their share of the buyer's premium.  It looked like they really wanted more pieces put up for auction.

With this in mind, are people not selling as much art right now?  Things seem to be much slower from my perspective and people not selling much I am interested in.  

I remember in the 2008 downturn, a lot of great art started to turn up for auction and I bought some things for less than they sold for just a few years before.  This doesn't look like the same kind of reaction.  

The housing market doesn't seem to have slowed either with prices dropping.

Does anyone have any insight on this?  Is there a greater downturn coming?

[John E.]

13 minutes ago, Peter L said:

Hi all,

I thought the last Heritage auction had some good stuff as usual.  I thought this coming auction seemed sparse, and the catalogs were very thin.

I got a letter from Heritage saying they would pay me more than my share for pieces above a certain price, which would include their share of the buyer's premium.  It looked like they really wanted more pieces put up for auction.

With this in mind, are people not selling as much art right now?  Things seem to be much slower from my perspective and people not selling much I am interested in.  

I remember in the 2008 downturn, a lot of great art started to turn up for auction and I bought some things for less than they sold for just a few years before.  This doesn't look like the same kind of reaction.  

The housing market doesn't seem to have slowed either with prices dropping.

Does anyone have any insight on this?  Is there a greater downturn coming?

First, I don’t think it’s any one thing. 
 

Personally, I haven’t purchased anything on auction in over a year (though there is something I like on auction now). There’s too much competition and auctions don’t fly under the radar anymore. Then there’s the bp, taxes, and shipping. Since November all my purchases have been private. 
 

Second, I haven’t sold any art on auction for a while. All my sales have been private. Comic Art Live was a success for me making me feel like I don’t need an auction house. An auction house has to prove to me that they will get a maximum price that exceeds my 10%+ cut. Thus far I have beat Comic Link’s hammer prices. 
 

Lastly, I feel like collectors are really hanging on to the stuff they do have because quality art is sparse. It doesn’t pop up as often as it used. And I can only speak for myself but if I let go of something I probably will never get back and certainly not for a reasonable price. 

[Peter L]

10 minutes ago, John E. said:

 

Second, I haven’t sold any art on auction for a while. All my sales have been private. Comic Art Live was a success for me making me feel like I don’t need an auction house. An auction house has to prove to me that they will get a maximum price that exceeds my 10%+ cut. Thus far I have beat Comic Link’s hammer prices. 
 

When you sell privately, do you message individual collectors based on what they collect or do you put it in your CAF or how do you arrange your private sales?  Thanks.

[John E.]

39 minutes ago, Peter L said:

When you sell privately, do you message individual collectors based on what they collect or do you put it in your CAF or how do you arrange your private sales?  Thanks.

If I look at the last year, quarter sales were to friends and the other 3/4 during Comic Art Live. Actually, I did make a sale through CAF classifieds once in the last year. 

[Dick O.]

Quality OA has been drying up at auction/public sale since early-2020.

Similar to other passion investment/asset classes, investors increasingly value quality assets over cash  

 

[bluechip]

In 2008 there was nothing curtailing people from spending what money they had outside the confines of their home.   Art is one thing you can buy and enjoy, even (sorta) share with your friends, without ever setting foot outside.    

[aokartman]

1 hour ago, O. said:

Quality OA has been drying up at auction/public sale since early-2020.

Similar to other passion investment/asset classes, investors increasingly value quality assets over cash  

 

OK, I missed that. 

Still seems like some great stuff out there.

Quality art will surface eventually regardless of the specific economic picture.

But, I have been hanging on to my best pieces for quite a few years now, so I appreciate the sentiment.

David

 

 

[sfilosa]

Unless you have unlimited funds to buy art, it really doesn't matter if there are five pieces or fifty pieces you want. I don't disagree that Heritage has less material, but does that really mean there is less material going around? I don't think so.

I've spent more this year than any other year because I saw a few pieces of art I really wanted. Pricing at auctions is strong. And this is a stock market technical analysis concept, but if prices don't rise on say a particular artist/character/time period, then supply will dry up. Excluding the reason a collector would sell because they need cash for other reasons (e.g. lost their job, retiring, no longer collecting, etc,), there is no reason for someone to sell a piece they bought five years ago for $1k if the current market is $1k. UNLESS that piece no longer fits in their collection. But if prices are rising, then there are two reasons to sell, no longer fits in their collection or make a nice profit and buy something else they want at a perceived lower value. Note that "upgrading" means the piece you are selling no longer fits into your collection (as you want a better piece).

I will say this, if there is something you collect and auctions/dealers don't seem to have it, reach out to board members on CAF and see if they will sell. I've bought a number of NFS pieces, and have sold several NFS piece. Understand, you need to be prepared to pay "more" than what that person could most likely get in an auction, or you are wasting their time. If they wanted to sell the piece they have multiple options to sell. So if they say NFS, they might never sell or they might sell at a price that they feel is "over market" and they can take those dollars and buy something else they like "at or below market". That would be the reason to sell NFS piece.

 

[Rick2you2]

By “quality”, I assume you mean traditionally expensive pieces. I think there is enormous amount of real quality out there if you look. Heck, there is even some nice work up on Hakes this time. Maybe the premium commission charges are driving away HA’s sellers.

[sfilosa]

The other part is when people say "quality pieces", many of us would have entirely different opinions (i.e. we all collect different things).

Like I said in another thread, this Heritage Auction has a lot of strip art. I don't buy any of that so to me even if a piece sold for $40k, I don't think of that as quality. I bought a Jack Davis complete EC Haunt of Fear story two auctions ago, but for many collectors, they would have no idea what that is (and therefore not quality to them). And of course if a modern cover by David Finch from 2008 sells for $38k in a ComicLink auction (more than my complete EC story by far), I go WTF. 

But each collector is different and to be honest, if you are still collecting, you really do want to have niches that you like that are not the hottest in demand items yet.

I have one piece in the new Heritage Auction that I really, really want and I bet 95% of the collectors on this board would go, what so interesting about that piece? Just hoping, the other 5% find something else they want more and I can get it at a price I can live with!

 

 

[Rick2you2]

8 hours ago, sfilosa said:

I have one piece in the new Heritage Auction that I really, really want and I bet 95% of the collectors on this board would go, what so interesting about that piece? Just hoping, the other 5% find something else they want more and I can get it at a price I can live with!

Count me among the 5% this time.