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50th annual Overstreet - What does he get right? What does he get wrong?
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186 posts in this topic

57 minutes ago, RareHighGrade said:

I'd be interested to know what books in his Top 100 list shoed the greatest percentage increases.

Here you go Peter:

Cap 74 - 18%

Phantom Lady 17 - 14%

Superman 1 - 13%

Detective 38 - 12%

Sub-Mariner 1 - 11%

All- American 61 - 11%

Action 1 - 10%

Cap 1 - 10%

Whiz (2)1 - 10%

Flash 1 - 10%

Sensation 1 - 10%

Detective 36 - 10%

The rest were under 10% increases. 

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Ask and ye shall receive.  (thumbsu

That wold be Cap 74 at 18% for the Gold :whatthe: , which was followed by PL 17 at 14% for the Silver :applause:, and lagging close behind and just squeaking in for the Bronze was Supes 1 at 13%.  (thumbsu

Nothing compared to the 150% for Mask 1, but then that one there is still far away from entering Overstreet's Top 100.  Only 2 new entries into his Top 100 and that would be the long awaited return of Mystery Men 1 :taptaptap: :taptaptap:  after a multi-decades long absence and new to the chart would be the classic cover Pep 34, with both of these being tied in 95th spot at $32,000. :applause:

Edited by lou_fine
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19 minutes ago, Primetime said:

Here you go Peter:

Cap 74 - 18%

Phantom Lady 17 - 14%

Superman 1 - 13%

Detective 38 - 12%

Sub-Mariner 1 - 11%

All- American 61 - 11%

Action 1 - 10%

Cap 1 - 10%

Whiz (2)1 - 10%

Flash 1 - 10%

Sensation 1 - 10%

Detective 36 - 10%

The rest were under 10% increases. 

All of those are well deserved.  No Tec 27 increase over 1o percent ? 

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1 minute ago, Primetime said:
1 hour ago, Chicago Boy said:

All of those are well deserved.  No Tec 27 increase over 1o percent ? 

Tec 27 was at 7%

Possibly due in part to the fact that it's relatively scarce and doesn't tend to show up in the marketplace very often and this results in a lack of market activity to support or to confirm more aggressive price increases.  hm  (shrug)

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10 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Possibly due in part to the fact that it's relatively scarce and doesn't tend to show up in the marketplace very often and this results in a lack of market activity to support or to confirm more aggressive price increases.  hm  (shrug)

Do u know the number of Action 1 sales compared to Tec 27 sales in the last year between guides ?

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Regarding relevance of the OSPG, I think that any pricing guideline is out of date the moment it goes to print. 

But, a little bit like a stick book, I still buy it for the articles. 

I’ve been disappointed that Overstreet hasn’t continued his Marketplace Year Book. I loved that publication and would prefer that Overstreet invested in a dynamic digital pricing service (drawing on available store APIs) that collectors could subscribe to and then invest his time and focus in developing that yearbook type of analysis for his print runs.

(Overstreet has the reputation and market share to launch a digital product with great success).

I’ll still buy this year’s edition. But not for pricing guidelines. 

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1 hour ago, Chicago Boy said:
1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Possibly due in part to the fact that it's relatively scarce and doesn't tend to show up in the marketplace very often and this results in a lack of market activity to support or to confirm more aggressive price increases.  hm  (shrug)

Do u know the number of Action 1 sales compared to Tec 27 sales in the last year previous years between guides ?

Fixed that for you.  :baiting:

You do realize that this is the Overstreet Price Guide we are talking about and not the old and now defunct Wizard Price Guide.  You've been on the boards long enough to know that Overstreet never ever bases his guide valuations on waht happen in just the previous one year time period.  As we all know, he's much more conservative and likes to see confirming sales of a book over an extended period of time before slowly raising his price on that book.  :taptaptap:  :taptaptap:

As such, how many more multi-million sales have taken place for 'Tec 27 as compared to Action 1 over the past several years?  hm

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4 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Possibly due in part to the fact that it's relatively scarce and doesn't tend to show up in the marketplace very often and this results in a lack of market activity to support or to confirm more aggressive price increases.  hm  (shrug)

And yet a book that does show up a lot and has lots of reported sales every year (like Captain America #3), lags behind #2 for a decade plus. And that wouldn't explain AA#16 leaping Bat #1 on the chart this year.

The bad part is, 20 years from now people will pull out this year's guide as proof that Cap #2 was more valuable than #3 and that AA#16 was on fire and briefly overtook Bat #1 again in value.

 

Remember when the Annual Overstreet Guide used to come out at the end of March?  Glad they at least got it out before the calendar year finished this year.

 

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15 hours ago, Primetime said:
16 hours ago, RareHighGrade said:

I'd be interested to know what books in his Top 100 list shoed the greatest percentage increases.

Here you go Peter:

Cap 74 - 18%

Phantom Lady 17 - 14%

Superman 1 - 13%

Detective 38 - 12%

Sub-Mariner 1 - 11%

All- American 61 - 11%

Action 1 - 10%

Cap 1 - 10%

Whiz (2)1 - 10%

Flash 1 - 10%

Sensation 1 - 10%

Detective 36 - 10%

The rest were under 10% increases. 

The Overstreet Top 100 is much the Dow Jones Index which is also not a very good indicator since it is disproportionately influenced by the big boys at the top, but this appears to be a bit of a conservative year with the overall percentage increase coming in at the mid single digit level (i.e. approx. 5% to 7%) from strictly eyeballing it.  

Although valuations were a lot lower back then, definitely not like the early to mid 90's for a 5-year time period when GA was super red hot and even Overstreet had his overall average percentage for his Top 50 and then his Top 100 ranging from the mid 20% into the low 30% with even one year rocketing in at just over 60%.  :whatthe:  :whatthe:

Now, those years were most definitely very very un-Overstreet like when it came to his price guide valuation increases as somebody must have really lit a fire under his butt back then.  lol

Edited by lou_fine
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22 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

Remember when the Annual Overstreet Guide used to come out at the end of March?  Glad they at least got it out before the calendar year finished this year.

 

Yes, it was always out in late March or middle of April for many years...right before/at Wondercon...

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19 minutes ago, Primetime said:
4 hours ago, blackterror said:

Could someone please tell me if Phantom Lady 17 is in the Overstreet Top 100 Golden Age Books this year?  If so ... what is her rank?

She's tied at #79 with three other books. 

Yes, looks like PL 17 jumped up 10 spots from #89 up to #79 as its valuation went from $35K up to $40K in this year's edition of the guide.  (thumbsu

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On 9/4/2020 at 8:30 PM, Primetime said:

. The data on keys is, naturally, not current, but I have noticed on price listings for some keys that the 2.0 guide price can be pretty close to the "current" entry level 1.0 CGC price.

Maybe that is the real takeaway, the guide is (mostly) accurate, just not the grades Bob says.

So instead of looking at Batman #1 in 2.0 and thinking, "wow that $2,000 increase this year to $57,300 put the price close to 2016 levels",we should just read it as the price for a 1.0. and think "yeah that sounds about right".  Then just replace the other grades as needed, the 4.0 price is the 3.0 price, the 6.0 is the 4.5 price, the 8.0 is actually 7ish, etc. 

But of course for the first 3 prices in the guide Cap #1 is listed as exactly half the value of Bat #1, so not sure how the sliding scale will work there. To be fair, Bob did raise Cap #1 an astonishing 10% to keep it at half Bat #1 value, which is for Bob is about as progressive as you can get.

No the more I think about it, there is no excuse to be that far off, how can you have Cap #1 in 6.0 at $85,950 (and 2.0 at $28,650) when that number hasn't been correct since about 2014?

 

 

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On 9/6/2020 at 1:17 AM, Crowzilla said:

And yet a book that does show up a lot and has lots of reported sales every year (like Captain America #3), lags behind #2 for a decade plus. And that wouldn't explain AA#16 leaping Bat #1 on the chart this year.

The bad part is, 20 years from now people will pull out this year's guide as proof that Cap #2 was more valuable than #3 and that AA#16 was on fire and briefly overtook Bat #1 again in value.

Sean;

Didn't you used to be an advisor for the Overstreet Guide back in the 90's or thereabouts when you were much more active as a dealer and also a regular contributor to the CBM magazine?  hm

Maybe you could touch base with Bob one of these days and ask him about this obvious pricing anomaly between Cap 2 and Cap 3 and then give us the scoop here.  (thumbsu

Edited by lou_fine
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31 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

And yet they actively encourage "Market Reports" from all sorts of folks that they call advisors. These so-called experts are then able to get the most self-serving BS into print and essentially endorsed.

I love the price guide and consider it dear. But the entire front section of the book in manipulated garbage edited by folks who don't actively participate the the back-issue market and do not recognize the hot steaming pile of faulty information that are the market reports..

Those are the trusted advisors whose trusty advice advises the updating of prices and is therefore trustworthy. (:

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2 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

And yet they actively encourage "Market Reports" from all sorts of folks that they call advisors. These so-called experts are then able to get the most self-serving BS into print and essentially endorsed.

I love the price guide and consider it dear. But the entire front section of the book in manipulated garbage edited by folks who don't actively participate the the back-issue market and do not recognize the hot steaming pile of faulty information that are the market reports..

This post wins the day !

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