If DC closes down: price impact OA 1 1

[zhamlau]

On 11/18/2020 at 10:38 AM, JadeGiant said:

I have it on good authority that this DC change will drive down the price of all Hulk art, especially Sal Buscema (it's a complicated algorithm, trust me). The time to sell all of this material is now, before it plummets to next to nothing. If you want to sell now before the collapse, let me know. I know a guy. 

This is the type of discussion of "The Average" ARTSOC approves of. Any discussion about how overpriced or downwardly trending his values are will be enthusiastically approved of by the committee.

 

Remember: Friends don't let friends buy art we havent approved of....DO YOUR PART!!!

[fmaz]

The way we consume and enjoy entertainment will continue to dramatically evolve... and “comics” themselves may/will cease to exist, but the characters are so universally known and popular that OA will still hold strong value for a long time.   It’ll just evolve too. It’ll be less about the comics and more about the characters on the page.  What I mean is, right now there’s a big price discrepancy between, for example, a Bronze Age Spider-man page from Amazing and one from Spectacular or MTU.  But over time it’ll just become about which page is visually a more interesting depiction of Spidey.  
All that being said, nothing will ever change the validity of this advice : collect stuff you like. 

[Mmehdy]

ATT borrowed heavily to get WB etc 150 billion, the execs don't give a crude about DC printed comic books unless they make money....I understand that ATT will dump DC or sell it with along with WB pictures. Whomever buys the lot, could sell it again piece by piece. I believe printed comic books will be limited to the big name characters until this is sold or resolved, look for the end 2021 to be the last year for printed comic books from DC unless they turn a profit. Look for minor effects from this change on the OA market short term, but Long term look for a significant negative effect.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Mmehdy

[JadeGiant]

30 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

ATT borrowed heavily to get WB etc 150 billion, the execs don't give a crude about DC printed comic books unless they make money....I understand that ATT will dump DC or sell it with along with WB pictures. Whomever buys the lot, could sell it again piece by piece. I believe printed comic books will be limited to the big name characters until this is sold or resolved, look for the end 2021 to be the last year for printed comic books from DC unless they turn a profit. Look for minor effects from this change on the OA market short term, but Long term look for a significant negative effect.

Image the Mouse buying DC and the ensuing future MCU/DCCU crossover possibilities

[ShallowDan]

8 minutes ago, JadeGiant said:

Image the Mouse buying DC and the ensuing future MCU/DCCU crossover possibilities

It's interesting when I try to think of who would be a good steward of the DC legacy, assuming it has to be some mega-sized conglomerate media behemoth.  On general principle, part of me would hope for it to be anyone but Disney.  But admittedly, there's an argument that they would be best for the brand's long-term survival. 

[RBerman]

If not Disney, who?

[ShallowDan]

4 minutes ago, RBerman said:

If not Disney, who?

That's the thing.  You could look at someone like Scholastic Publishing or Penguin/Random House, but they just feel like a temporary stop on the way to eventual Disney ownership.  

I'm not sure if Amazon has ever expressed interest in buying up IPs, but between Comixology and their Prime streaming service, I could potentially see them being interested, but my gut says that they wouldn't be as good long-term for the health of the brand as Disney might be.

[Rick2you2]

24 minutes ago, Bill C said:

I collect OA (maybe too feverishly for several years) and I haven't really bought any new comics since 1995. The only new things I've bought were reprints basically. As far as I'm concerned new books don't exist, I don't really acknowledge them, and it hasn't affected my collecting one iota.

There are tons of factors at play with the changing landscape on why people may lose interest in OA to an extent, but I don't know that new comics going away would be one of the larger factors.

As people who buy collectibles age, their own aging without replenishment can end a market. Look at something like rare marbles. I could be wrong, but I doubt they have held up as a healthy collectibles market. I also question whether alternative media will sustain it. My oldest son was a big fan of certain cartoons when he was growing up. When I saw a comic book page involving one of them, his response was basically “Dad, I used to like the cartoons; I never read the comics. Why would you think I would want a comic book page from one?” When I was growing up, it wasn’t all that different than when my father tried to get me interested in electric trains.

[RBerman]

My eight year old is devouring Silver Age DC omnibuses, Tintin, Calvin and Hobbes, and Pogo Collections.  His younger brother reads Calvin & Hobbes, and Franklin Richards: Son of a Genius voraciously.  They fight over the Complete Bone. But I recognize We are anomalous.

[Rick2you2]

Just now, RBerman said:

My eight year old is devouring Silver Age DC omnibuses, Tintin, Calvin and Hobbes, and Pogo Collections.  His younger brother reads Calvin & Hobbes, and Franklin Richards: Son of a Genius voraciously.  They fight over the Complete Bone. But I recognize We are anomalous.

I’m curious how well Pogo is holding up on the OA market. It was a really big deal when it came out, but some of the strips were pretty political and may not have aged well. The others are good reads even without growing up with them (don’t know about Complete Bone). 
 

A lot of those silver age stories still involve continuing characters, so yes, they would still be read. But where is the fan base for TNT and Dan the Dyna-mite?

[RBerman]

Bone is terrific as a read. I haven't seen any pages out there, so I assume Jeff Smith still has them all.

Pogo dailies run $500-1000 in recent Heritage Auctions.

I confess a lack of personal attachment to TNT and Dan the Dyna-Mite.

[TommyRaiko]

1 hour ago, RBerman said:

If not Disney, who?

An interesting question. Especially if you imagine that ATT would sell DC Comics as a publishing entity separate from Warner Bros, then maybe typical publishing companies might be purchasers--folks like Penguin Random House or Scholastic, or maybe even some of the still existing major magazine publishing companies like Hearst, Condé Nast, or Meredith.

If you're thinking of any of the existing media companies, aside from Disney, you could sorta see Warner/DC fitting with Comcast or Sony. CBS/Viacom is trying to sell their Simon & Schuster book publisher, so they might not be a great place for DC as a publishing entity even if they go for Warner Bros. NewsCorp still has publishing (books and newspapers) but has sold Fox studios to Disney, so may not be a natural home for the whole of Warner/DC.

Beyond existing media companies, maybe some of today's major tech companies--especially with existing presence in the media space like Amazon, Netflix, and Apple--might be potential landing places for Warner/DC, but still might not be a great home for the traditional publishing part of the DC business.

 

[Rick2you2]

47 minutes ago, RBerman said:

Bone is terrific as a read. I haven't seen any pages out there, so I assume Jeff Smith still has them all.

Pogo dailies run $500-1000 in recent Heritage Auctions.

I confess a lack of personal attachment to TNT and Dan the Dyna-Mite.

Pogo was really important in its heyday. If it were still around, I expect it would be a lot more valuable. The art was good,too.

[alxjhnsn]

6 hours ago, RBerman said:

Bone is terrific as a read. I haven't seen any pages out there, so I assume Jeff Smith still has them all.

Jeff donated the art to the Billy Ireland Museum at The Ohio State University. There are a few published Bone pieces that are not there, e.g., the Trilogy covers, but the Bone books are all there. 

[JadeGiant]

19 hours ago, ShallowDan said:

It's interesting when I try to think of who would be a good steward of the DC legacy, assuming it has to be some mega-sized conglomerate media behemoth.  On general principle, part of me would hope for it to be anyone but Disney.  But admittedly, there's an argument that they would be best for the brand's long-term survival. 

Not just survival but a thriving future. There isn't any company better suited to move the property forward. I think most resistance would come from the comic purists whose fear of creating a single comic universe within Marvel and DC both reside. The whole Marvel vs DC comic fanboy heated debate might go away. 

[Michael Browning]

12 hours ago, alxjhnsn said:

Jeff donated the art to the Billy Ireland Museum at The Ohio State University. There are a few published Bone pieces that are not there, e.g., the Trilogy covers, but the Bone books are all there. 

There are also a couple of the published jam pages out there from the Shi/Cyblade crossover that feature Bone. I used to own one of them.

[BuraddoRun]

On 11/17/2020 at 1:58 PM, aqn83 said:

 

I really think that both big publishers are simply targeting the wrong demographic. They're too focused on trying to appeal to older and stubborn "mature" readers who hate any changes to their favorite characters, who have been collecting floppies for years.  I think by focusing on them, they're not appealing to newer and younger readers.

As you said, you didn't step into a comic shop until a few years after you started collecting. Not only do they need to focus on stories that appeal to a younger crowd, but they need to push and really advertise them in markets that are easily accessible to younger people like Target and Walmart.

I believe the opposite is happening. Marvel and DC have been trying for years to appeal and bring the "new generation" of "young fans." That's why we get so many reboots, retcons, and new creative teams all the time in comics now. Tons of old comic fans complain constantly about many modern comics because they feel abandoned by the Big Two. But, Marvel & DC, despite their efforts, simply haven't brought the new generation into the comic fold. Ideally, they would try to do both. Retain the older, dedicated readers but also appeal to potential new ones. Many people believe that's impossible. Many of us don't like the previous generation's music, for example. But I believe that a lot of the big characters have staying power. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, for example, has been reinvented multiple times, and it's going strong. The Big Two have characters that can stand the test of time as well.

On 11/17/2020 at 3:20 PM, Varanis said:

My interpretation of the speculation is DC is planning to focus future printed materials on graphic novels for sale through book stores, book fairs, etc and will end the production of monthly single issues. This feels like a long time coming as the demand has generally shifted that direction for the last several years. I think this will make it much easier to market and sell products and will generally be a boon for comic readership long term. I think it will be miserable for LCS's and potentially comic collectors. I think it will be somewhere between good and irrelevant for OA. Art will still be produced and the characters are still massive IPs with enormous demand for content and collectibles. I think it could catalyze the comic collecting populace to move into OA as they lose modern singles as a collectible. It may also drive up the market for out of print or original printing collected editions - which I believe has already been going up over the years.

It seems unbelievable to me they would cease the production of all comic media entirely. I expect they view the comics as a ripe opportunity for a new business model.

I think this is the model DC is headed towards, as well, or are at least teasing and testing it.

On 11/18/2020 at 2:28 PM, AndyFish said:

I've heard over and over again that the old stuff will die off as new collectors come in.  Well, I was a new collector at one point, when I was a kid you could get almost any Silver Age Comic for $1-$100 depending on the grade and when I would buy Batman's from the 1960s (this was probably 1979 or so) the older buyers near me would always laugh and tell me I was throwing money away because that stuff would never be worth anything.

When I first saw a Golden Age book in person (coincidently Batman #14 which I still have) I paid the ungodly sum of $50 for it and it's about a 4.5.   It opened a flood gate of chasing down Golden Age comics despite them being well before my time.

At a con last year I was talking to a twenty something collector who told me he had just discovered and loved Golden Age comics, so I don't think an era ever goes away interest wise.   The Spirit is a character many had forgotten about, but those "in the know" would never forget.   It's not hard to become a member of the "in the know" club.

As for the original question, DC Comics is not going away, there is way too much money in the licensing of these characters for WB.   They certainly could license out the characters to other publishers but I think the most likely scenario is that American comics follow the Japanese model; comics are released serialized in digital format and then collected into volumes as print editions.   There will still be artists making the art for these books, the fact that many artists are going digital is a factor but the whole blue line print out traditional ink thing seems to be gaining steam.  

So there will be comic art, it'll just be a little harder to get a penciler's work but I think there will still be a decent amount of inked work, and more and more (and I know this from experience) creators are getting hired and it's assumed you're going to ink your own work.

 

My nephew is a new comic book fan, and his favorite books to buy are bronze, silver, and golden age. He isn't even interested in the, what are we calling it, "steel" age. He is young, so he can't afford the golden and silver stuff as much, but he's been picking up a lot of bronze back issues for cheap at Half Price Books. And he's reading them.

 

Regarding OA, I think that it will continue to rise in value regardless, the older stuff at least. I think that printed material, or hand-drawn in general will, as long as things keep going forward in the digital realm. But highs and lows will happen. There will be times when prices, on average, rise or fall, depending on factors such as the economy, big sellers releasing stuff, etc. But even if floppies go away, some digital media still has traditional artwork, so new stuff will come. And I think comics are big enough that we will still have indie creators who WANT to do floppies or prefer hand-drawn artwork. I don't think DC stuff would skyrocket in the short-term, but we'll see. Thought-provoking topic!