Extrapolating value 1 1

[gozer]

I've got a few golden age books, in high grade (e.g. 9.4, 9.6), for which there's just no sales data.  They only changed hands through private transactions, and it all happened many years ago.

So trying to figure out an asking price is a challenge.

But there IS some data for lower grade copies.  And for copies from 15 or more years ago.  I'm wondering, is it useful?

For comic X (in CGC 9.4) does it help to know that a 6.0 copy sold in 2018 for $1600?  Or that a 9.0 copy sold in 2004 for $1000?
Is it relevant?

[entalmighty1]

I think any data helps.  At least it gives you a starting point, right?  If you really want to find out what they're worth, send them to auction.

[Mmehdy]

Auction will be only way to really find out

[KCOComics]

Agreed. 

Any data you can collect can at least directionally help to inform you. 

But the only way to really maximize value is to send them to auction.  It's all about how desirable they are and if collectors will pay up for that high grade. 

[fishbone]

+1   Auction is only way

[sfcityduck]

6 hours ago, gozer said:

I've got a few golden age books, in high grade (e.g. 9.4, 9.6), for which there's just no sales data.  They only changed hands through private transactions, and it all happened many years ago.

So trying to figure out an asking price is a challenge.

But there IS some data for lower grade copies.  And for copies from 15 or more years ago.  I'm wondering, is it useful?

For comic X (in CGC 9.4) does it help to know that a 6.0 copy sold in 2018 for $1600?  Or that a 9.0 copy sold in 2004 for $1000?
Is it relevant?

It would be more helpful to know if similar books sold recently in that grade.  For example, if comic X has a Schomburg or L.B. Cole cover, what are similar comics selling for?  Could be adjacent issues, could be different titles in the same time frame, could be same content of cover, etc.

[sfcityduck]

Or you could just tell us what the comic is and see what folks think it might be worth.  You will undoubtedly get all sorts of valuation methodologies.

[OtherEric]

One thing that can matter is if it's a very specialist interest, very rare book.  I've seen some items that only show up for sale at all every few years; and then prices don't depend so much on the grade as how many people are looking for a copy in ANY condition.

[AJD]

I have a curve fit that gives OK results for books that aren't scarce or keys. (In my experience it works well for most ECs, for example.) I use it to estimate what to bid at auctions based on recent sales in different grades.

Here are some numbers. Let's say you have a price for an 8.0 and want an estimate (and that's all I claim for these) of the 9.4 price, you look up the "rel 8.0" column and see that the 9.4 number is 2.4 x

(BTW, you can use any column for any two grades. The multiplier is (higher grade number)/(lower grade number). E.g. from the first column, the 7.5 price given a 6.0 sale is just Price(7.5) = 0.41/0.25 * Price(6.0) = 1.64 x )

I hope this is helpful - no warranty applies!

	Rel 9.2	Rel 9.0	Rel 8.0	Rel 4.0
1.8	0.07	0.09	0.14	0.47
2.0	0.08	0.10	0.16	0.53
3.0	0.11	0.14	0.22	0.72
3.5	0.12	0.16	0.25	0.83
4.0	0.15	0.19	0.30	1.00
4.5	0.17	0.21	0.33	1.11
5.0	0.19	0.24	0.38	1.27
5.5	0.21	0.27	0.43	1.43
6.0	0.25	0.31	0.50	1.67
6.5	0.29	0.37	0.58	1.95
7.0	0.35	0.44	0.70	2.33
7.5	0.41	0.51	0.82	2.73
8.0	0.50	0.63	1.00	3.33
8.5	0.62	0.78	1.24	4.13
9.0	0.80	1.00	1.60	5.33
9.2	1.00	1.25	2.00	6.67
9.4	1.20	1.50	2.40	8.00
9.6	2.40	3.00	4.80	16.00

[Cat-Man_America]

Without a crystal ball assessing where a hammer price will end, it comes down to the momentary value placed on a book by two determined bidders, and which one blinks first.  Market evaluation requires comparable grades and periodic bidding in constantly evolving economic situations that exclude outliers and popular trends influenced by revivals, TV series and film.  

Apologies for the earlier sarcasm.  My sense of humor is somewhat challenged at present. 

Edited November 23, 2020 by Cat-Man_America
Verbosity and ale, redux.