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INVESTMENTS: Is it time to realize the truth?
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Started by valiantman,

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valiantman

valiantman

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26 minutes ago, valiantman said:

This post is a response to the generic question:  "Why did so many collectibles suddenly go through the roof in 2020?"

The short answer is "people are stuck at home and bored", but that's also short-sighted.

The long answer is "people are old enough to invest who don't remember the old days of investing"... so what do they choose?

"Investments" across the board are seeing a major shift in focus. 

This year, every child born anytime up to 1999 turns at least 21 years old.  Children born in 1989 probably don't remember a time before the internet was at least marketed as a household name like AOL or Yahoo.  They're already 30+ years old.  Born in 1979?  You're 40+, and you watched animated shows, bought the toys, collected cards/comics, and played video games before the internet was in every house.

All of these 20 to 40 year olds can probably remember something about the stock market crashing in 2008-2010 when the housing market crashed.  They definitely remember the stock market crash of early 2020, even with the rebound in prices to current highs.  They know companies have been hurt by Covid and their revenues are falling month after month.

What are the traditional investments?  Stocks and real estate... two major centuries-old institutions that look extremely risky to a generation (or two) of adults under 50 (including me).

Bitcoin has outperformed every other possible "get rich someday" investment in the past 10 years, despite being the riskiest thing ever according to just about every investment expert.

When you can't afford a McMansion to live in like every desperate housewife on television, or even afford to own a home versus renting, you aren't investing in real estate.

When you watch every stock across the board fall overnight or within a couple of weeks, you wonder why you're supposed to bet your retirement investments on CEOs that don't want you to have $15/hour...

When you missed out on Bitcoin because it was "too risky" and "you don't actually own anything" and "it's just ones and zeroes" or because you were too young to invest...

And when there are millions of others just like you...

You either force something that doesn't feel right (stocks, real estate, mutual funds/IRAs/401ks), you take a risk on something still considered risky at $20,000 when it used to be $1 (bitcoin), or you look elsewhere for something to care about and make you happy investing.

Looking elsewhere for something you do care about means looking backwards... childhood, teen years, happy times.   Nostalgia.

Yes, every investment has the potential to lose money.  Sadness is probably inevitable, regardless, but happiness doesn't have to be excluded.

Spider-Man, Michael Jordan, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Star Wars, Nintendo... are words that easily beat "No-Load Mutual Funds", "Subprime Mortgage", and "Traditional Investment" in the 21st century.

Especially if your investments and your future are also supposed to include... happiness.

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valiantman

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3 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

So you're saying invest in nothing and stuff your cash in a mattress?  (shrug)

Sorry @valiantman, but your opening salvo makes very little sense.

The post is a response to the generic question:  "Why did so many collectibles suddenly go through the roof in 2020?"

The short answer is "people are stuck at home and bored", but that's also short-sighted.

The long answer is "people are old enough to invest who don't remember the old days of investing"... so what do they choose?

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mattn792

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2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

The post is a response to the generic question:  "Why did so many collectibles suddenly go through the roof in 2020?"

The short answer is "people are stuck at home and bored", but that's also short-sighted.

The long answer is "people are old enough to invest who don't remember the old days of investing"... so what do they choose?

That helps, should have put it in the first post (thumbsu

If I had to guess where all the money was coming from that has flowed into the collectible market since March, my first guess would be fraudulent PPP loans and fraudulent unemployment insurance claims.  But I can be a cynic when it comes to "free" government money programs.

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lizards2

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I can't believe the comic market right now, as far as the skyrocketing sales/values.  I've talked with some other collectors, and we are mostly feeling like we are being priced out of the market.  Seems like a great time to sell, with eBay auctions and the like realizing double what my max bids would be.  I guess I did get some bottom-feeding in on the recent Comic Connect auction, but that seems to be a rarer and scarcer event these days.

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Pat Thomas

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My interpretation of this is since investing in anything is a risk, at the pace the world is changing, traditional investments in stocks and bonds aren't any "safer" than collectibles like comics, sports memorabilia, or anything that provides a link to the past (back when everything was better). I don't know about that. I wouldn't want to stake my future only on comics , even ones that are currently worth a fortune. I love having my collection as a supplement to my other investments, but that's all.

There are many collectors who will tell you they only buy comics to read them and do everything in their power to discourage "investors" and "speculators". But like it or not, comics are collectibles. As long as babies are born, there is an endless supply of possible future enthusiasts, and only a finite number of each comic. The big dollar amounts don't seem to scare off the newer collectors, either, so who knows what this will lead to.

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valiantman

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22 minutes ago, mattn792 said:
27 minutes ago, valiantman said:

The post is a response to the generic question:  "Why did so many collectibles suddenly go through the roof in 2020?"

The short answer is "people are stuck at home and bored", but that's also short-sighted.

The long answer is "people are old enough to invest who don't remember the old days of investing"... so what do they choose?

That helps, should have put it in the first post (thumbsu

Done. :grin:

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valiantman

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6 minutes ago, Pat Thomas said:

There are many collectors who will tell you they only buy comics to read them and do everything in their power to discourage "investors" and "speculators".

There are many people yelling about getting off their lawns, too.  Funny how those people just get older, but not any happier, every year.

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THE_BEYONDER

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30 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

I can't believe the comic market right now, as far as the skyrocketing sales/values.  I've talked with some other collectors, and we are mostly feeling like we are being priced out of the market.  Seems like a great time to sell, with eBay auctions and the like realizing double what my max bids would be.  I guess I did get some bottom-feeding in on the recent Comic Connect auction, but that seems to be a rarer and scarcer event these days.

Prices are bonkers right now.  The question is how much more bonkers are they going to get?

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mattn792

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7 minutes ago, valiantman said:

There are many people yelling about getting off their lawns, too.  Funny how those people just get older, but not any happier, every year.

But at least their lawns remain pristine lol

In my view, investing in anything comes down to two things -- your own base perspective, and your openness to considering other opinions.  Me and Bitcoin are a prime example.  When the hype train first started rolling, the narrative was largely dominated by the true believers who wanted us all to jump on board because Bitcoin was going to replace all of the world's "fiat" currencies and usher in some unregulated libertarian utopia.  It was utter nonsense, for a plethora of reasons, including that Bitcoin would be just as much a fiat currency as any other asset class that's invented by man.

It didn't stop me from gambling on it a little bit through GBTC, but I had no actual faith in its long term viability.  Still, as long as the suckers believed in their fancy little string of numbers, I figured I'd try to make a few bucks off of them.

Crypto was definitely a hot button topic in the Gold Price thread this year though, and props once again go to @delekkerste for introducing me to a new way of thinking about Bitcoin (and Ethereum, etc's) potential utility in the world -- as a cheaper medium of transfer.  Bitcoin's average transaction fee right now is about $12.  Say you need to send a seller who you have a good relationship with $20,000 for a book.  PayPal will charge the seller a fee, of what, $600+?  And that's in the US;  international can be even more costly.  But using your stateless, outside the traditional financial network Bitcoin to make the transfer?  $12 fee.

There's obviously a myriad of risks involved and zero guarantee that crypto will ever actually take on that, or any useful role, but at least now in my mind there is a sensible case to be made that crypto can have long term viability as an asset.  I'm not remortgaging the house to put all my equity into it, but I'll certainly dabble with more confidence, especially now that you can buy and hold through PayPal rather than using one of those potentially shady exchanges and having to keep track of some digital wallet.

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crassus

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25 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:
59 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

I can't believe the comic market right now, as far as the skyrocketing sales/values.  I've talked with some other collectors, and we are mostly feeling like we are being priced out of the market.  Seems like a great time to sell, with eBay auctions and the like realizing double what my max bids would be.  I guess I did get some bottom-feeding in on the recent Comic Connect auction, but that seems to be a rarer and scarcer event these days.

Prices are bonkers right now.  The question is how much more bonkers are they going to get?

I attribute a lot of this to new money in the hobby, feasting at a buffet that they are only learning about, and thus are more reckless with their spending. That will not result in a crash or bubble "burst" but if I were going to look for a "correction" it would be at the level of the non-key hg SA issues, for me at least its been there that I've had most of my "wtf" moments at auction. 2c

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lizards2

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28 minutes ago, crassus said:

I attribute a lot of this to new money in the hobby, feasting at a buffet that they are only learning about, and thus are more reckless with their spending. That will not result in a crash or bubble "burst" but if I were going to look for a "correction" it would be at the level of the non-key hg SA issues, for me at least its been there that I've had most of my "wtf" moments at auction. 2c

Like I said, take your highest bid and double it, and you probably still won't win! lol

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valiantman

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1 minute ago, Beige said:

Wait for yet another sales pitch about buying 'shares in comics you don't really own'

It's getting tedious and obvious now.

RallyRd.com thanks you for the commercial and all of its users thank you for not competing with them.

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