The New Stimulus Package !!! 4 4

[Colin Nash]

Will the new stimulus payout add another nail in the coffin of the vintage comic collector?

The last stimulus hand out saw prices rocket on key issues taking them beyond the budgets of many serious collectors. What will happen this time ? We saw ASM#300 skyrocket in just a few weeks last time. Now with $2000 to spend the pressure on the vintage comic market will surley rise and push prices to even more unsustainable and unaffordable levels.

Your thoughts would be both enlightening and appreciated.

Colin

[Mercury Man]

2 hours ago, Colin Nash said:

Will the new stimulus payout add another nail in the coffin of the vintage comic collector?

The last stimulus hand out saw prices rocket on key issues taking them beyond the budgets of many serious collectors. What will happen this time ? We saw ASM#300 skyrocket in just a few weeks last time. Now with $2000 to spend the pressure on the vintage comic market will surley rise and push prices to even more unsustainable and unaffordable levels.

Your thoughts would be both enlightening and appreciated.

Colin

Is there really a direct correlation between the stimulus check and that factor directly affecting the vintage collectibles market?  My opinion is, it started in March with the crash.  The smartest people in the room, dumped more money on the lows in the market, then were able to increase their investments 30-50% depending on where they put it.   I put some money into the SPDR ETF. Currently my investment is up 52% since March.  I am not talking five figure profits, given the amount I could afford to put in.  But people with way more money than me, can and did do quite well.   That may be where the money is coming from, not $1200 bumps to us common folks. 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Mercury Man

[1950's war comics]

10 minutes ago, Mercury Man said:

Currently my investment is up 52% since March

way to go !! 

[mattn792]

First of all, I believe historical precedent shows that certain types of collectibles, including comics, often outperform during times of strife for the stock market.  Recent article on the topic:  When the stock market tanks, investors buy collectibles – but which types? (liveauctioneers.com)

With that said, I would posit that the stimulus checks have little, if anything, to do with the recent run up in the collectibles market.  Too small in amount, and obviously too infrequent in delivery.  But if you're looking for a possible government catalyst for money flowing into the market, look toward the current payout of the unemployment system.  I've heard more than one person note that they know someone who is making more on unemployment than they were while working prior to COVID, and depending on those recipients' living and financial situation, that could be mean a whole lot more disposable income.  

And if you want to speculate in a more nefarious direction, its been widely reported that almost anyone who bothered to try, even prison inmates, have successfully scammed the current unemployment system to receive benefits they didn't qualify for.  On top of that, Google "fraudulent PPP loans", and you'll see just how badly the SBA was asleep at the wheel when it came to vetting PPP loan applications.  How much "bad" money is out there?  How much of it flowed into the collectibles market?  We'll probably never know, but it could certainly be a not insignificant amount.

Last, think of the impact work at home has had on a lot of the still employed's budgets.  Transit, child care, morning and afternoon dining -- just some of the normal work expenses that all potentially went to zero.  Indoor entertainment closed?  More surplus for the household budget.  Dining out options all closed?  Even more.  How many comic collectors saw these benefits to their budget?

So no, I wouldn't say that putting $1200 or $1800 or $3200 into a percentage of the American public's pockets over the course of a calendar year was the catalyst for this year's meteoric rise in the comic market.  There's far too many more significant factors that likely contributed.

[lizards2]

8 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

First of all, I believe historical precedent shows that certain types of collectibles, including comics, often outperform during times of strife for the stock market.  Recent article on the topic:  When the stock market tanks, investors buy collectibles – but which types? (liveauctioneers.com)

With that said, I would posit that the stimulus checks have little, if anything, to do with the recent run up in the collectibles market.  Too small in amount, and obviously too infrequent in delivery.  But if you're looking for a possible government catalyst for money flowing into the market, look toward the current payout of the unemployment system.  I've heard more than one person note that they know someone who is making more on unemployment than they were while working prior to COVID, and depending on those recipients' living and financial situation, that could be mean a whole lot more disposable income.  

And if you want to speculate in a more nefarious direction, its been widely reported that almost anyone who bothered to try, even prison inmates, have successfully scammed the current unemployment system to receive benefits they didn't qualify for.  On top of that, Google "fraudulent PPP loans", and you'll see just how badly the SBA was asleep at the wheel when it came to vetting PPP loan applications.  How much "bad" money is out there?  How much of it flowed into the collectibles market?  We'll probably never know, but it could certainly be a not insignificant amount.

Last, think of the impact work at home has had on a lot of the still employed's budgets.  Transit, child care, morning and afternoon dining -- just some of the normal work expenses that all potentially went to zero.  Indoor entertainment closed?  More surplus for the household budget.  Dining out options all closed?  Even more.  How many comic collectors saw these benefits to their budget?

So no, I wouldn't say that putting $1200 or $1800 or $3200 into a percentage of the American public's pockets over the course of a calendar year was the catalyst for this year's meteoric rise in the comic market.  There's far too many more significant factors that likely contributed.

I would also add in all the "current" collectors who can't go to conventions. All the travel, restaurant, vehicle and hotel expenses and in-person buying, has been supplanted by on-line/eBay/auction house buying, with none of the frill expenses, except maybe postage.

I actually don't go to conventions due to travel, expenses, and not-my-cup-of-tea, but it seems there are a lot of board participants who do.

[paperheart]

IBTL

[FoggyNelson]

4 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

I would also add in all the "current" collectors who can't go to conventions. All the travel, restaurant, vehicle and hotel expenses and in-person buying, has been supplanted by on-line/eBay/auction house buying, with none of the frill expenses, except maybe postage.

I actually don't go to conventions due to travel, expenses, and not-my-cup-of-tea, but it seems there are a lot of board participants who do.

Conventions are fun Though

[Mmehdy]

5 hours ago, Colin Nash said:

Will the new stimulus payout add another nail in the coffin of the vintage comic collector?

The last stimulus hand out saw prices rocket on key issues taking them beyond the budgets of many serious collectors. What will happen this time ? We saw ASM#300 skyrocket in just a few weeks last time. Now with $2000 to spend the pressure on the vintage comic market will surley rise and push prices to even more unsustainable and unaffordable levels.

Your thoughts would be both enlightening and appreciated.

Colin

I think any stimulus will have a positive effect on the GA/SA comic book market, especially on the low end material and increase demand.

[lizards2]

1 minute ago, FoggyNelson said:

Conventions are fun Though

Yeah, no. I went to lots in Portland in my teens, and twenties, when they were all about the comics.  Now there are very few of the pure comics ones, and I live in a very remote place.

Portland is the last place in this state where I would travel to anymore, plus it is a 7 hour drive from here, one way. I may go to Reno, if they ever have one there again. That's only a 4 hour drive.

[FoggyNelson]

Ok yeah I wouldn’t drive that far either , too bad one not closer only one hr away 

EBay is like a 24/7 convention every day 👍👍‼️

[crassus]

50 minutes ago, FoggyNelson said:

56 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

I would also add in all the "current" collectors who can't go to conventions. All the travel, restaurant, vehicle and hotel expenses and in-person buying, has been supplanted by on-line/eBay/auction house buying, with none of the frill expenses, except maybe postage.

I actually don't go to conventions due to travel, expenses, and not-my-cup-of-tea, but it seems there are a lot of board participants who do.

Conventions are fun Though

They can be, but generally I find its where overgrading and overpricing go to party hardy at the collector's expense. We have one big local show here in Montreal, and I find that when I do go I spend more time socializing and catching up with people I know, and I enjoy that much, but come home with very few comics. 

[crassus]

IMO there is unlikely to be any connection between one shot stimulus payments and collectibles, at the consumer end anyway. I would tend to side more with the view that its the crisis environment generally, and the persistence of low interest rates that continues to pump money (and new money) into the hobby. It may also be a factor, for those who operate on a large scale, that its also cheap and easy to borrow money to throw at a hobby which shows significantly stronger returns than conventional investments. This is part of the continuum stretching back to the last great crisis of 2008-2009. 

Certainly if the US stimulus has been blanket and indiscriminate as to need, than yes some people may have some bonus spending money that they don't need or deserve, but the amounts are not likely to make any difference in purchasing power in the hobby. Here in Canada the Federal government has been larger and more generous in its relief, but much of that came with conditions of need, and now the Canadian government has started the process of auditing and clawing it back. So here in Canada, at least, if you took money you know you didn't qualify for, and you went and spent it on your dream key, you will be paying that money back. But again, I doubt that money was spent on comics. Just my 

[Poekaymon]

This got way too thoughtful responses for what was clearly a troll post.

[crassus]

43 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

This got way too thoughtful responses for what was clearly a troll post.

Yes I'm probably naïve, but trolling for what exactly? The only thing that hasn't been brought up yet to explain the comic market is astrology and the search for extraterrestrial life...but maybe I'm asking for it... 

[mattn792]

4 minutes ago, crassus said:

Yes I'm probably naïve, but trolling for what exactly? The only thing that hasn't been brought up yet to explain the comic market is astrology and the search for extraterrestrial life...but maybe I'm asking for it... 

New wave of comic collectors from Neptune driving market forces...  

[lizards2]

2 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

8 minutes ago, crassus said:

Yes I'm probably naïve, but trolling for what exactly? The only thing that hasn't been brought up yet to explain the comic market is astrology and the search for extraterrestrial life...but maybe I'm asking for it... 

New wave of comic collectors from Neptune driving market forces...  

Actually, it's either Russians or Chinese, depending on your political affiliation...., 

[crassus]

2 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

Actually, it's either Russians or Chinese, depending on your political affiliation...., 

Yup, they're hitting us right where we're most vulnerable, making us pay more for our collectibles, those  will stop at nothing... 

[Poekaymon]

16 minutes ago, crassus said:

Yes I'm probably naïve, but trolling for what exactly? The only thing that hasn't been brought up yet to explain the comic market is astrology and the search for extraterrestrial life...but maybe I'm asking for it... 

Trolling is its own reward.  First time on the internet?   

[crassus]

2 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

Trolling is its own reward.  First time on the internet?   

  who said anything about it being my first time? 

[lizards2]

2 minutes ago, crassus said:

5 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

Trolling is its own reward.  First time on the internet?   

  who said anything about it being my first time? 

Actually, crassus IS smarter than the average bear.