What percentage of the total available is slabbed in big money books?? 0

[drotto]

This is a musing more than anything else, what percentage of high value comics are slabbed?  I know there is no way to get a clear answer, but wanted to know what others think.  For this, I am talking about the key high value books.  Things like AF15, XM 1, Avengers 1, Batman 1, etc.

 

I think markets have shown that investors (not saying all collectors) like the grades and plastic. Has this driven most of thr big books to be graded?

[valiantman]

An estimate by the experts over in the Golden Age ended up with about 100 votes right around "half of all major Golden Age keys" are CGC graded - Action #1, Detective #27, Superman #1, etc., so maybe 50%.

Since we know there were 3,275 copies of TMNT #1 (1984, first printing) and if we assume very few were destroyed/thrown away, there are 980 copies on the CGC Census, which is 30%.

Since the Silver Age keys are pretty well situated between 1938 and 1984, it's probably safe to estimate that about 40% are graded.

(EDIT: This estimate only applies to high value comic books which are "worth CGC grading" in all possible conditions.  Obviously a 1940s comic book worth $50 with just 10 copies on the census doesn't have 40%-50% of all existing copies graded.)

Edited February 26, 2021 by valiantman

[ADAMANTIUM]

27 minutes ago, valiantman said:

An estimate by the experts over in the Golden Age ended up with about 100 votes right around "half of all major Golden Age keys" are CGC graded - Action #1, Detective #27, Superman #1, etc., so maybe 50%.

Since we know there were 3,275 copies of TMNT #1 (1984, first printing) and if we assume very few were destroyed/thrown away, there are 980 copies on the CGC Census, which is 30%.

Since the Silver Age keys are pretty well situated between 1938 and 1984, it's probably safe to estimate that about 40% are graded.

(EDIT: This estimate only applies to high value comic books which are "worth CGC grading" in all possible conditions.  Obviously a 1940s comic book worth $50 with just 10 copies on the census doesn't have 40%-50% of all existing copies graded.)

this is eye opening in that they're still sought after in the market as mostly they are in slabs  there needs to be some kind of marketing, and there probably is that is gear towards already slabbed copies to push it even further to non-raw genre  

[ADAMANTIUM]

not really sure how to brainstorm for it myself, other than

the price received at auction

but the one's that hit me that were mostly slabbed imo when I first started out in 2015 were

GSXM#1 and X-men #94......

but since then we've seen marketable characters with heavy availability have success, I wonder if the over printing of the 90's makes it look less slabs are out there in general. Except when it comes to certain books, making it seem limited availability, but in the end we don't know the "real number" the market will bear in the end....

so all kind of subjective with no real numbers to play with?

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by ADAMANTIUM

[valiantman]

Yes, there are all kinds of indicators and variables we might use, but the problems with "non-random samples" are numerous.

CGC probably only gives us a good idea of what still exists when every copy (no matter how low the condition) is worth submitting to CGC.  Books like Action #1 and Amazing Fantasy #15 qualify for that kind of assessment, but it's likely that books like GSXM#1, X-Men #94, and TMNT #1 have only been "slab-worthy" in upper-mid-to-high grade throughout CGC's history.

As a result, we might be able to estimate how many high grade copies still remain, but we don't really have data on the mid-grade and low-grade beyond what has been slabbed since those conditions increased to "slab-worthy" price levels.

Here's an article I wrote in August 2020 that explored the question in more detail: https://comics.gpanalysis.com/news/2020/what-can-the-cgc-census-tell-us-about-all-those-ungraded-comics

...and a follow-up article: https://comics.gpanalysis.com/news/2020/from-action-comics-1-to-early-silver-age-whats-worth-slabbing-in-poor-condition

Edited February 26, 2021 by valiantman

[the blob]

Since the Silver Age keys are pretty well situated between 1938 and 1984, it's probably safe to estimate that about 40% are graded.

-----------

I seriously doubt it is that high. You have boomers and gen xers with these books in their long term collections who have no interest in slabbing them until they sell them.

[valiantman]

6 minutes ago, the blob said:

Since the Silver Age keys are pretty well situated between 1938 and 1984, it's probably safe to estimate that about 40% are graded.

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I seriously doubt it is that high. You have boomers and gen xers with these books in their long term collections who have no interest in slabbing them until they sell them.

I'm talking about AF #15, ASM #1, FF #1, Hulk #1... anything significantly lower value isn't nearly at 40%.

[the blob]

Just now, valiantman said:

I'm talking about AF #15, ASM #1, FF #1, Hulk #1... anything significantly lower value isn't nearly at 40%.

I suppose the mythical 65 year old who has 7 copies of each sitting in his closet may no longer be a reality.

fact is anyone who was an adult in the mid 80s who had a decent job could have 7 copies of each, you didn't need to buy them in ancient times.

[Mmehdy]

ga 50%, sa 70%

[Lazyboy]

4 hours ago, the blob said:

Since the Silver Age keys are pretty well situated between 1938 and 1984, it's probably safe to estimate that about 40% are graded.

-----------

I seriously doubt it is that high. You have boomers and gen xers with these books in their long term collections who have no interest in slabbing them until they sell them.

There's no way it's that high. Trying to estimate numbers by comparing the big SA keys to the top GA keys and TMNT 1 is ludicrous.

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, Lazyboy said:

There's no way it's that high. Trying to estimate numbers by comparing the big SA keys to the top GA keys and TMNT 1 is ludicrous.

Because... ?

You think the graph of the percentage for the highest valued comic books already graded is U-shaped with Golden Age on the left and TMNT on the right?  Silver Age in a trough in the middle? 

I'm guessing statistics wasn't your subject.

[Lazyboy]

5 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Because... ?

You think the graph of the percentage for the highest valued comic books already graded is U-shaped with Golden Age on the left and TMNT on the right?  Silver Age in a trough in the middle? 

I'm guessing statistics wasn't your subject.

You can't reasonably compare mass-produced comics with massive attrition (due to factors much bigger than just the passage of time) and a small press issue from an age of minimal attrition to mass-produced comics from an age of normal attrition. It's an absurd premise. Why didn't you use the biggest Marvel and DC Copper keys (which would still be far from ideal)?

[valiantman]

4 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

You can't reasonably compare mass-produced comics with massive attrition (due to factors much bigger than just the passage of time) and a small press issue from an age of minimal attrition to mass-produced comics from an age of normal attrition. It's an absurd premise. Why didn't you use the biggest Marvel and DC Copper keys (which would still be far from ideal)?

Name another comic book since the 1960s where all conditions are worth submitting to CGC and one we know how many were printed.  That's the only way we get a picture of what exists across the spectrum of grades. TMNT #1 has both.

 

We don't know how many copies of Golden Age keys exist, but 100 votes in the Golden Age section of this board puts it around 50%, and I doubt if there's a better number anywhere in the hobby.

 

If a significant number of copies of TMNT #1 have been destroyed, the 30% already graded would increase, raising the numbers on each side of the Silver Age. 

[Prince Namor]

If the census numbers include books that have been resubmitted multiple times then wouldn't that throw the percentages way off? Especially since there's almost no way to know the actual number of surviving copies of 99.9% of the books?

[the blob]

Copies with restoration and known trimming that folks would not submit may throw those numbers. A LOT of these books have gotten played with. Who wants to spend hundreds getting back a PLOD?

[Qalyar]

To even try to estimate this, I think you have to consider what sort of books aren't slabbed.

• Across the board, there are some high grade copies in closely held collections whose owners prefer raw books. For example, we know there are some ungraded mega-keys in the Dentist's hands. The number of books like this is smaller the more expensive the book is, and will continue to decrease over time because eventually collections get dispersed and grading maximizes return for high end items.
• Especially for GA books, there's a condition floor. Remember that coverless or radically incomplete copies get NG labels and census exclusion. Ironically, that probably contributes to the restoration count. No one wants a PLOD but if you have a coverless AF15 and an AF15 missing the two center folds, you're almost certainly better off financially turning them into one mid-grade purple book. I suspect that's partially responsible for the weirdly low census count of low-grade Det27s.
• Speaking of restoration, for all high value books, there's a good-sized pool of restored raws out there. They present well, so they have liquidity as raw copies, but they avoid slabs because of the PLOD stigma.
• Meanwhile, especially the more recent books get, the more low-grade raws there are out there. There's a market for beater/reader copies of keys, and those owners do not want slabbed books. There's probably some valuation tier where that stops making sense. Certainly, I'd rather have an 0.5 slabbed Action 1 / Det27 than the same book raw. Maybe AF15 is the divider there? I know I've seen maybe a dozen just really wrecked FF1s that weren't slabbed and probably won't ever be. Contrary to the OP's suggestions, I don't think there would be much motivation for low-grade or visibly damaged TMNT 1 1st prints to get graded, and if otherwise, it hasn't been that way for long!

These causes are not uniform over the time periods, so trying to make a straight-line estimate from the 1930s to the 1970s is going to give you numbers that probably aren't even "dimensionally correct", as my former manager once put it.

[valiantman]

10 hours ago, Prince Namor said:

If the census numbers include books that have been resubmitted multiple times then wouldn't that throw the percentages way off? Especially since there's almost no way to know the actual number of surviving copies of 99.9% of the books?

It wouldn't throw the percentages "way off" unless they were 1) all resubmitted without returning the old label and 2) a significant percentage of the comics on the census.

Let's assume both scenarioes and say that 1-out-of-5 copies of TMNT #1 (first printing) is actually a resubmission that didn't get reported to CGC and removed from the census.

Instead of 980 different copies on the CGC Census, there would only be 784 actual copies that had made at least one trip to CGC.

With 3,275 known copies printed, the 980 (30%) would drop to 784 (24%).  

That estimate is based on the idea that zero copies of TMNT #1 (first printing) have been destroyed/thrown out.  If 5% of the original print run of TMNT #1 is actually gone (since it was an independent, non-standard size, and wasn't a major book until a few years later), then the 784 would be divided by 3,111 and it would be 25%, which isn't that far from the original estimate of 30% for 980 out of 3,275.

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, Qalyar said:

To even try to estimate this, I think you have to consider what sort of books aren't slabbed.

• Across the board, there are some high grade copies in closely held collections whose owners prefer raw books. For example, we know there are some ungraded mega-keys in the Dentist's hands. The number of books like this is smaller the more expensive the book is, and will continue to decrease over time because eventually collections get dispersed and grading maximizes return for high end items.
• Especially for GA books, there's a condition floor. Remember that coverless or radically incomplete copies get NG labels and census exclusion. Ironically, that probably contributes to the restoration count. No one wants a PLOD but if you have a coverless AF15 and an AF15 missing the two center folds, you're almost certainly better off financially turning them into one mid-grade purple book. I suspect that's partially responsible for the weirdly low census count of low-grade Det27s.
• Speaking of restoration, for all high value books, there's a good-sized pool of restored raws out there. They present well, so they have liquidity as raw copies, but they avoid slabs because of the PLOD stigma.
• Meanwhile, especially the more recent books get, the more low-grade raws there are out there. There's a market for beater/reader copies of keys, and those owners do not want slabbed books. There's probably some valuation tier where that stops making sense. Certainly, I'd rather have an 0.5 slabbed Action 1 / Det27 than the same book raw. Maybe AF15 is the divider there? I know I've seen maybe a dozen just really wrecked FF1s that weren't slabbed and probably won't ever be. Contrary to the OP's suggestions, I don't think there would be much motivation for low-grade or visibly damaged TMNT 1 1st prints to get graded, and if otherwise, it hasn't been that way for long!

These causes are not uniform over the time periods, so trying to make a straight-line estimate from the 1930s to the 1970s is going to give you numbers that probably aren't even "dimensionally correct", as my former manager once put it.

If 50% of all Golden Age major keys have been CGC graded, that would mean there are the same number out there "raw".  While the Dentist and a dozen other major collectors certainly have higher grades, the majority will be the books you've described - lower condition, restored, extremely valuable but not "enhanced" much by a CGC slab.  The 50% estimate says there's an equal number of slabs vs. every grade of raws.  That's plausible for the Golden Age major books.

The TMNT #1 having 980 on the census and a known print run of 3,275 puts it at 30%, so that leaves 70% (more than twice as many raws) out there in the wild - almost all will be lower grade, not worth slabbing until lately, but the estimate doesn't change because the census number is what it is, and the number printed is what it is.  Unless there are counterfeits graded by CGC as legitimate, there's not an adjustment to be made to the estimate.

Your points are valid, but they don't all have a butterfly effect.  Some pass by immediately without changing anything.

 

 

[Qalyar]

14 minutes ago, valiantman said:

If 50% of all Golden Age major keys have been CGC graded, that would mean there are the same number out there "raw".  While the Dentist and a dozen other major collectors certainly have higher grades, the majority will be the books you've described - lower condition, restored, extremely valuable but not "enhanced" much by a CGC slab.  The 50% estimate says there's an equal number of slabs vs. every grade of raws.  That's plausible for the Golden Age major books.

The TMNT #1 having 980 on the census and a known print run of 3,275 puts it at 30%, so that leaves 70% (more than twice as many raws) out there in the wild - almost all will be lower grade, not worth slabbing until lately, but the estimate doesn't change because the census number is what it is, and the number printed is what it is.  Unless there are counterfeits graded by CGC as legitimate, there's not an adjustment to be made to the estimate.

Your points are valid, but they don't all have a butterfly effect.  Some pass by immediately without changing anything.

 

 

I think a 50% grading rate is probably ballpark realistic for... let's say "normal" GA keys. It seems reasonable to me that half of the Det 31 population has been graded, for example. At the top end, I bet we're closer to 80% for the biggest of books: the Action 1s and Det 27s.

But I think the ratio drops more steeply than might've expected for later books. There are a lot of FF1 and XM1 and Avengers 1 in slabs, but there are a lot of those books out there, and there's historically been little reason to slab copies that either 1) were restored during the restoration craze, or 2) present poorly in general.

Separately, I think the 30% ratio for TMNT 1 is too low because it assumes the extant population is approximately the same as the print run, and I think you badly underestimate how many copies failed to survive. While there are certainly things that work in its favor -- initial distribution at a convention and the rapid market value increase -- fundamentally, this is still a magazine-size black and white indie on cheapo newsprint. Not everyone who got copies did so in the belief this book was important or worth money. Large, cheaply printed, and easily damaged, I guarantee the survival rate is well under 100%. Is it 50%? Is it 75%? It's hard to know. Regardless, the unique circumstances of this book probably mean it has one of the highest survival rates AND highest grading ratios of its era. But I can be fairly certain that most of the ungraded copies are going to be in poor shape at this point.

[valiantman]

4 minutes ago, Qalyar said:

I think a 50% grading rate is probably ballpark realistic for... let's say "normal" GA keys. It seems reasonable to me that half of the Det 31 population has been graded, for example. At the top end, I bet we're closer to 80% for the biggest of books: the Action 1s and Det 27s.

But I think the ratio drops more steeply than might've expected for later books. There are a lot of FF1 and XM1 and Avengers 1 in slabs, but there are a lot of those books out there, and there's historically been little reason to slab copies that either 1) were restored during the restoration craze, or 2) present poorly in general.

Separately, I think the 30% ratio for TMNT 1 is too low because it assumes the extant population is approximately the same as the print run, and I think you badly underestimate how many copies failed to survive. While there are certainly things that work in its favor -- initial distribution at a convention and the rapid market value increase -- fundamentally, this is still a magazine-size black and white indie on cheapo newsprint. Not everyone who got copies did so in the belief this book was important or worth money. 

One alternative would be to use a book like ASM #300 - with almost 25,000 CGC submissions and ask whether 25% - 30% is reasonable or significantly too low.

We know that mid and low grade raws are plentiful, and perhaps all grades are plentiful since 25% - 30% would mean another 55,000 to 75,000 are "out there".  Is there reason to believe it's 100,000 more raws?  If so, then the estimate would only shift to 20% already graded, and not a significant drop from 25%-30%, as far as percentages go.