IS HE RIGHT....................... "THERE ARE 3000+ NM 98! 2K THESE PEOPLE ARE CRAZY......." ARE YOU A DINOSAUR FROM ANOTHER AGE?" 3 3

[I am not Glenda]

Take a few minutes ...watch this and then let's have a discussion...................................................

 

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[HotKey]

He makes some great points. Assuming his theory of sports card money being the primary force driving up comic prices is correct, I don't see a crash coming. It would take almost all that same new money wanting to bail at the same time and undercutting each other for it to crash. Otherwise if only some bail, the other new money will buy it up at the selloff rates and the market will remain largely the same. 

His comparison to population numbers follows logic too, especially his point at the end about the ones that will forever remain in PC's no matter what the price is. The comic world definitely seems to have more nostalgia and sentimental value attached to their collections. 

How many NM 98 9.8s are actually available right now? Maybe 10% of the census? When someone could sell their Jordan rookie and buy 20+ of them, it doesn't take very many of those happening to drastically impact the market.

I think new money wins the battle and stays a dominant force in the market.

[I am not Glenda]

24 minutes ago, HotKey said:

He makes some great points. Assuming his theory of sports card money being the primary force driving up comic prices is correct, I don't see a crash coming. It would take almost all that same new money wanting to bail at the same time and undercutting each other for it to crash. Otherwise if only some bail, the other new money will buy it up at the selloff rates and the market will remain largely the same. 

His comparison to population numbers follows logic too, especially his point at the end about the ones that will forever remain in PC's no matter what the price is. The comic world definitely seems to have more nostalgia and sentimental value attached to their collections. 

How many NM 98 9.8s are actually available right now? Maybe 10% of the census? When someone could sell their Jordan rookie and buy 20+ of them, it doesn't take very many of those happening to drastically impact the market.

I think new money wins the battle and stays a dominant force in the market.

 I think its hard to gauge right now as everything is up but what impacted me more than anything about this video was his comparison of what the comic community considers a large census # vs how new people entering the hobby view those same numbers. When I start to think of it in terms of historic character impact vs census # for a book like 9.8 Hulk 181 or even a NS 1st Harley I think he makes a valid point that many book might just be way undervalued right now? I agree with your Jordan statement 100% yes it's extreme but the point is dead on! (  how many people need to get into our hobby to have a big impact on a book like NYX #3 9.8 if she becomes the next generation Wolverine?). If anything he also does not take into consideration that in MOST cases comic characters have a  infinite longer collectable life span vs 99% of sports cards ( most cases Mickey Mantle is Mickey Mantle, Jodan is Jordan etc) Who was Don Mattingly? 

Edited March 11, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

14 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

 I think its hard to gauge right now as everything is up but what impacted me more than anything about this video was his comparison of what the comic community considers a large census # vs how new people entering the hobby view those same numbers. When I start to think of it in terms of historic character impact vs census # for a book like 9.8 Hulk 181 or even a NS 1st Harley I think he makes a valid point that many book might just be way undervalued right now? I agree with your Jordan statement 100% yes it's extreme but the point is dead on! (  how many people need to get into our hobby to have a big impact on a book like NYX #3 9.8 if she becomes the next generation Wolverine?). If anything he also does not take into consideration that in MOST cases comic characters have a  infinite longer collectable life span vs 99% of sports cards ( most cases Mickey Mantle is Mickey Mantle, Jodan is Jordan etc) Who was Don Mattingly? 

Funny, Mattingly was the player I was thinking of when considering this fact as well. The fact that comic characters don't retire means that there a growing number of highly desirable first appearances, so even though the census count of a comic is much lower than of a sports card, there are probably so many more individual issues that are desired. And not every collector is interested in the same character.

[Lazyboy]

I'm not going to watch the video. Based on the title, I'm just going to assume it contains a bunch of footage from the mid-90s.

[I am not Glenda]

3 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

I'm not going to watch the video. Based on the title, I'm just going to assume it contains a bunch of footage from the mid-90s.

No it contains a point of view on WHY THE BIG CRASH many people on the board expect may never happen.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

I think one of the ways it appears this is going to change things is the gap between 9.6s and 9.8s

[the blob]

Deadpool is really popular. Fanboys with $ want a piece of him. 

 

[the blob]

$3000 gets you a 4.5-5.0 Hulk 181. Hulk 181 is a pretty common book. There are about as many copies of Hulk 179 and Hulk 183 on ebay as New Mutants 97. Is Wolverine bigger than Deadpool. Probably. Maybe. I dunno.

Edited March 13, 2021 by the blob

[Randall Ries]

Wish he would get to the points already. Likes his own voice a little bit.

 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

Buy his analogy, I should send him a message quick. I have a bunch of lone census copies.  Guess I can retire , who knew. 

[Randall Ries]

Well. It's hard for me to relate to what he is saying somewhat. Firstly, just last year the sports card markets were supposedly flaccid. Dead. Inactive. Maybe 2 years ago. I don't know for certain. I don't collect them as I have zero interest in them or sports. I RESPECT the collectors that collect what they love, though. I get it.

The industry can make a lot more sports cards than they can comic books. Smaller size means more of the things can be produced. Less material needed for volume. So it isn't all that shocking to see the disparity in numbers between 10.0 in cards and 9.8's in comic books.

So, we have new money coming in to the hobby. They don't seem to be collecting the actual item as they are collecting a grade. A number. The card or comic book itself seems to be beside the point. Isn't there a thread here in the forums by someone offering to buy all our 9.6's and 9.8's? What is it? You love the books or you love money? You say both? I say bollocks to that. You are in it for the money.

I will never be able to just plunk down $3k or $10k for any book that strikes my fancy at any time I choose to. The books I buy have more to do with the artist or title than value. I am buying Neal Adams "Phantom Stranger" covers right now. Why? Because I like the covers and I like Jim Aparo's artwork and the writers. I am satisfied with mid high grades. Anywhere between 7.0 and 9.0. I would prefer higher grades but the speculators are driving up the PRICE and not necessarily the actual VALUE of a given book. They want the 9.8's. On CL, there is a nice run of 9.8 Phantom Strangers. $1k per toss? No. I am happy with a 9.0. Jeez. I can buy 9.2 raw Phantom Stranger Adams covers for $50 per.

If I laid down two 9.8 books to sell. Same issue of a given title and a popular, desired book. One raw unrestored in a mylar sleeve, one graded and encapsulated. Which one will the buyer want? Is the buyer so insecure that he/she will choose the graded encapsulated book every time? And pay through the nose to get it? I mean yeah. It must be nice to have that kind of money.

The other side of that. The grading companies are driving the seller market as well. 9.2 Phantom Stranger cover raw? 60-70 bucks. 9.2 graded? 200-300 bucks. Absolutely not. I'm paying for the grading process over and over. We all are. $1.50 worth of plastic and a sheet of mylar and some goomba's opinion of what the book is graded at. Spend 15 minutes looking my book over? What's that cost? Pay a person $15 per hour to grade books? So that's an additional $4. And the goomba at the grading station next to him/her would have a different opinion of my graded book. Ambiguity.

I collect comic books because I love the books I buy. It's nice when a certain book I own gets a bump in value. The Bat 251 I have is WAY overvalued IMO. But it's a lovely book.

Bottom line IMO is I buy the books I love and want. Not to get rich or "flip". Not to join some weird "Club". Like my life will change in any way at all. "Ooooh. I own an IH 181! Do I look more attractive to the ladies? Is my hair less grey? Do I weigh less? Do I still have to go to work? Is my car nicer than it was? Is my wife less of a wench?"

LOL! I buy one of those at these ridiculous prices, she will enter a level of wench-hood previously unseen. The speaker can say what he likes and he makes some good points but a copper age book should never be worth more than say a nice Bat #52. Or even worse a nice shaped Bat 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9. Certainly not a Bat 11. That's crazy. I guess collect your way and I'll collect mine. At some point, the topic of money becomes sordid and tacky. And really - judging a lot of the conversation on these forums - a lot of people are more interested in money than the books.

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

5 hours ago, Randall Ries said:

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Bottom line IMO is I buy the books I love and want. Not to get rich or "flip". Not to join some weird "Club". Like my life will change in any way at all. "Ooooh. I own an IH 181! Do I look more attractive to the ladies? Is my hair less grey? Do I weigh less? Do I still have to go to work? Is my car nicer than it was? Is my wife less of a wench?"

LOL! I buy one of those at these ridiculous prices, she will enter a level of wench-hood previously unseen. 

This right here..... 

He just dropped that like BOOM! 

As I read that again....

Upon third examination of that verbiage, almost as elegant as the Kentucky Waterfall 

I find myself deep in thought about what you have just laid out here. I find myself saying... 

And although it wasn't quite up to post of the year( this one has been crazy so far) it definitely is 

Edited March 13, 2021 by onlyweaknesskryptonite
I only typed all this because they took away the laugh reaction emoji.

[Randall Ries]

7 hours ago, onlyweaknesskryptonite said:

This right here..... 

He just dropped that like BOOM! 

As I read that again....

Upon third examination of that verbiage, almost as elegant as the Kentucky Waterfall 

I find myself deep in thought about what you have just laid out here. I find myself saying... 

And although it wasn't quite up to post of the year( this one has been crazy so far) it definitely is 

Well. You know? I'm not wrong. And sure. at some point, cancel culture will come for "The Neverending Story" ("To the winch, wench!")  but not today. LOL!

My point of course being that spending THAT MUCH money on a heavily populated book IMO is not my cup of tea. I would MUCH rather spend that kind of money on something LIKE a 9.0 Bat 9. Try finding one of those, you know? Sure am not mocking people who want and buy IH 181. Only way I would is if I was a Wolverine fan. I'm not. Same as I'm not a Spawn fan.

Many collectors keep insisting this sudden influx of new money isn't movie/TV driven but whenever big books are talked about in articles or on the interwebs, movies and tv are almost always invoked: "And with the new MOVIE coming out....." and "Wanda TV is exposing more and more of the uninitiated to the comic book world...." and boardies: "Nuh-Uhhhh!!! Movies have NOTHING to do with it! You are WRONG!" Really, though? Am I? $40k for a Transformers book? 3 successful Wolverine movies and several excellent X-Men movies? Hm? No? You don't think even a little? Hm? No? Hmmm. Wonder how all the "new money" got attracted in the first place. Could it be...maybe...the TV generation? Hmmmm?

Hey! Remember that TIME? When we ALL started punching out kids in the 1980's? And...And we plunked them down in front of the tv? So we could do what WE wanted to do w/o interruption? And...and they were watching "Spiderman and his Amazing Friends"? And...and "Transformers"? And...and "Thundercats"? And...and "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ( Heroes in a half shell. TURTLE POWER!)" Well, they ALL grew up and went the same path as everyone else before them did. Some became "winners" some became "losers" IN SPITE OF THE MANTRA society was trying to shove down our throats ("You are ALL winners!"). The "WINNERS" earned a whole lotta bucks. And they never forgot about "Voltron" and what they meant to them as kids.

Those children are all in their mid/late thirties now. And unlike us old fogeys, who went outside and played out scenes from our comic books in the front yard, they are the "TV As Babysitter" generation. Oh sure. I admit we went outside and fought over who was going to be Steve Austin, a man barely alive and who was going to be Bionic Bigfoot. THESE days, Movies and tv have joined forces with the physical media to create a new generation of collector. One that makes a lot of money and has been weaned on televised media. They perhaps didn't READ as much as WE did growing up because they had television and VCR's to do their reading for them. We sure didn't have all the electronics. We had "Pong". Endless hours of entertainment by trapping a digital tennis ball between our "paddle" and a wall.

Will there be a "crash"? No idea. If there is, I won't be there for it. If there's not, won't be there for it. I think there won't be. A "softening" perhaps. Or not? Who knows? And frankly who cares? Perhaps comic book collecting will start retaining Wall Street euphemisms: "These higher 'values' will serve to weed out the more 'timid' elements!" In other words, ostracize the real foundation of collecting: Adults with pre-adolescent kids still living inside them who love the stories and heroes.

As to "Wench"? LOL! Well, people always claim "I LIKE a person who speaks their mind! Who isn't afraid of a little controversy. Who thinks for THEMSELVES. Unless I am offended. Then I turn into a rubbery kneed crybaby." All anyone needs to know is this: I will call my wife a wench. I won't call YOUR wife a wench. Anyone have a problem with "Wench"? Let's all go through our "Conan" and "Red Sonja" books. Oh NO! Conan called a villager a wench! Even worse! A high ranking queen from another realm! Book is valueless now. I'll buy anyone's 9.6-9.8 #1 for $10. You DON'T want to be there when The Thought Police come for your collection.

 

[HotKey]

[nines]

In the sports card world, centering is key. It affects the grade significantly. If that same reasoning applied to comics, I could understand the 9.8 chase. But a 9.8 with a horrendous fold or miscut/printing lines/any of that.. top dollar just doesn't make any sense 

Edited March 14, 2021 by nines

[oldmilwaukee6er]

This is the rule of 20 in action...

New money card collectors entering the hobby and ignoring all the rules, just like 1990.

That is his main point... new card money does not care about our old comic rules. They don't care that comic old guard worry over census population.

They don't care that as the price of a common copper 9.8 increases, it will draw more books into the census. The census increases.

They don't understand the census is not the equivalent of a population count in card collecting (he was using ~3.5K 9.8 copies in the census vs popcount of 6k for this card or 12k for that card). They think the census IS the print run. They think Deadpool has a rookie card.

That said, I think the general premise... new money doesn't care about the old rules. There is something there.... and if one can tap into it, as many on here have (see also the Modern / Copper heating up threads) then they are staying ahead of the curve.

What other rules does the new money not care about?

[oldmilwaukee6er]

These days... all it takes is the right story/movie/tv show to catch a character on fire. Comic characters can play 'games' for 75+ years or more.

In future cancel culture... you can be the best and brightest sports athlete on the planet, but you can also then get cancelled after your career (15-20yrs) and have the collectibles associated with your name devalued. But comics can keep playing games. Keep racking up those Ws. 

[I am not Glenda]

11 hours ago, oldmilwaukee6er said:

 

That is his main point... new card money does not care about our old comic rules. They don't care that comic old guard worry over census population.

 

I can't agree more and after looking at many of the posts here by many of the " old guard" it's hard not to see his point of view...."I would only buy it if I like it" "I am not in it for the money" I can't understand how any can drop 2k on a modern book" 

[Lazyboy]

12 hours ago, oldmilwaukee6er said:

This is the rule of 20 in action...

New money card collectors entering the hobby and ignoring all the rules, just like 1990.

That is his main point... new card money does not care about our old comic rules. They don't care that comic old guard worry over census population.

They don't care that as the price of a common copper 9.8 increases, it will draw more books into the census. The census increases.

They don't understand the census is not the equivalent of a population count in card collecting (he was using ~3.5K 9.8 copies in the census vs popcount of 6k for this card or 12k for that card). They think the census IS the print run. They think Deadpool has a rookie card.

That said, I think the general premise... new money doesn't care about the old rules. There is something there.... and if one can tap into it, as many on here have (see also the Modern / Copper heating up threads) then they are staying ahead of the curve.

What other rules does the new money not care about?

The rule of intelligence.

How can anybody think things could possibly turn out well when people who don't care about a hobby come in and pay higher prices for things than the people who do care have ever paid?

Too many people in this market don't even know what they're buying, let alone why.