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IS HE RIGHT....................... "THERE ARE 3000+ NM 98! 2K THESE PEOPLE ARE CRAZY......." ARE YOU A DINOSAUR FROM ANOTHER AGE?"
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121 posts in this topic

21 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

The rule of intelligence.

Too many people in this market don't even know what they're buying, let alone why.

Here come the private equity 'investment'/spec firms into paper collectibles. Slabbed rookie cards being resold and auctioned at HA.com:

 

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1 hour ago, Lazyboy said:

The rule of intelligence.

How can anybody think things could possibly turn out well when people who don't care about a hobby come in and pay higher prices for things than the people who do care have ever paid?

Too many people in this market don't even know what they're buying, let alone why.

It’s irrelevant wether you care or not . Comic books have changed . Pop culture has changed . We are no longer geeks collecting and sharing our hobby with nerds underground . This is full blown modern Americana pop culture . 
 

in 2008 I remember very clearly where the hobby was . I looked up at my LCS shop wall:

AF 15 CGC 4.0 blue 4000.00 Canadian

Fantastic Four 4 6.0 blue 640.00

Fantastic Four 5 8.0 blue 800.00

submariner 2 Timely cgc 2.5 blue 250.00

Avengers 1 cgc 5.0 2000.00

to name just a few . I left that day buying two off that list . What changed ? I thought those prices were extremely high and out of my range . Well in 2008 the MCU began and single handed changed the game exposing Comicdom to billions . 
 

why are we shocked? We haven’t seen anything yet 

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3 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:
1 hour ago, Lazyboy said:

The rule of intelligence.

How can anybody think things could possibly turn out well when people who don't care about a hobby come in and pay higher prices for things than the people who do care have ever paid?

Too many people in this market don't even know what they're buying, let alone why.

It’s irrelevant wether you care or not . Comic books have changed . Pop culture has changed . We are no longer geeks collecting and sharing our hobby with nerds underground . This is full blown modern Americana pop culture . 
 

in 2008 I remember very clearly where the hobby was . I looked up at my LCS shop wall:

AF 15 CGC 4.0 blue 4000.00 Canadian

Fantastic Four 4 6.0 blue 640.00

Fantastic Four 5 8.0 blue 800.00

submariner 2 Timely cgc 2.5 blue 250.00

Avengers 1 cgc 5.0 2000.00

to name just a few . I left that day buying two off that list . What changed ? I thought those prices were extremely high and out of my range . Well in 2008 the MCU began and single handed changed the game exposing Comicdom to billions . 
 

why are we shocked? We haven’t seen anything yet 

I think you missed a key point.

The only reason any comics are worth anything is because of comic collectors. Money corrupts everything and what we are seeing now is insanity.

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That’s not true at all . The only reason anything is worth something is because an individual pays decides to pay for it . Clearly we are being shown it’s not a property owned by comic collectors and people have become bitter and upset . It’s not going away . The old guard matters in that we are way more knowledgeable than just money but it’s ludicrous to think comic collectors own this right . 

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16 hours ago, oldmilwaukee6er said:

This is the rule of 20 in action...

New money card collectors entering the hobby and ignoring all the rules, just like 1990.

That is his main point... new card money does not care about our old comic rules. They don't care that comic old guard worry over census population.

They don't care that as the price of a common copper 9.8 increases, it will draw more books into the census. The census increases.

They don't understand the census is not the equivalent of a population count in card collecting (he was using ~3.5K 9.8 copies in the census vs popcount of 6k for this card or 12k for that card). They think the census IS the print run. They think Deadpool has a rookie card.

That said, I think the general premise... new money doesn't care about the old rules. There is something there.... and if one can tap into it, as many on here have (see also the Modern / Copper heating up threads) then they are staying ahead of the curve.

What other rules does the new money not care about?

2nd prints.  Wish I had held onto all my 2nd print asm 361's :(

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1 hour ago, waaaghboss said:

2nd prints.  Wish I had held onto all my 2nd print asm 361's :(

I'm still baffled by the absurdity of values of non-1st print books.  To me, their valuation lies purely in the print numbers and not having to do with any key events in the book.  As a collector, do I value what happens in the story or do I value print numbers.  (that's a rhetorical question, I obviously care more about a true 1st appearance.)  Am I supposed to start hoarding facsimile editions here?

I think what we're seeing is the price of true 1st print/1st appearance keys getting out of peoples price ranges and as a result any ancillary book is getting picked up.  I've seen it happen with IH180 (though I argue there's value in a cameo appearance), FF49, and now 2nd prints, etc.

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Trying to use logic in an illogical hobby. We've been trying it for the past 10 years or so since the rise of comic book movies. But, a card person new to the hobby has it figured out. This should work out well.

A lot of sportscard people talk about population (graded cards) as do some comics people. But they don't seem to ever talk about how many buyers there are (unknown) or how many available for sale at that time (varies) (supply / demand).

Edited by ygogolak
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20 hours ago, Subby1938 said:

It’s irrelevant wether you care or not . Comic books have changed . Pop culture has changed . We are no longer geeks collecting and sharing our hobby with nerds underground . This is full blown modern Americana pop culture . 
 

in 2008 I remember very clearly where the hobby was . I looked up at my LCS shop wall:

AF 15 CGC 4.0 blue 4000.00 Canadian

Fantastic Four 4 6.0 blue 640.00

Fantastic Four 5 8.0 blue 800.00

submariner 2 Timely cgc 2.5 blue 250.00

Avengers 1 cgc 5.0 2000.00

to name just a few . I left that day buying two off that list . What changed ? I thought those prices were extremely high and out of my range . Well in 2008 the MCU began and single handed changed the game exposing Comicdom to billions . 
 

why are we shocked? We haven’t seen anything yet 

those prices sound very low, was this recession 2008? I sold a raw FF 5 in 4.0-4.5 shape for $750 in 2006. The submariner 2 in 2.5 for $250 sounds CRAZY cheap for then as I paid $500 for a much later issue in cgc 7.0 in 2001 or so. if I had seen early timelys that cheap in 2008, despite being broke, I would have bought them. I can't speculate on the other prices.

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3 hours ago, seanfingh said:

I don't think you can say that anymore.  It's like saying a Basquiet or a Warhol should never sell for as much as a Renoir or even a Remington. But times change and tastes change and art is art. People want what they want.  There are tons of 35 year olds who want a 1st Deadpool who will NEVER buy a Golden Age book.

Basquait only produced about 600 paintings that we know about. That still doesn't make the prices make any sense, but it feeds into it.

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24 minutes ago, the blob said:

those prices sound very low, was this recession 2008? I sold a raw FF 5 in 4.0-4.5 shape for $750 in 2006. The submariner 2 in 2.5 for $250 sounds CRAZY cheap for then as I paid $500 for a much later issue in cgc 7.0 in 2001 or so. if I had seen early timelys that cheap in 2008, despite being broke, I would have bought them. I can't speculate on the other prices.

I still have submariner 2 and FF 4. That’s was normal pricing in my shop in Canada 

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5 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

I still have submariner 2 and FF 4. That’s was normal pricing in my shop in Canada 

just saying that was cheap, although maybe things had dropped fast between 2007 and 2008. I don't remember my keys suddenly feeling worth a lot less. like i said, i sold a raw FF 5 in lower grade for more and if 2.5 timely Subby 2s were available on ebay at $250 I would have grabbed them. maybe I am remembering it all wrong, but I was very active in bidding in that market from 2000-2004 or so (low grade slabbed GA) and then selling them off in 2006-7 at 50-100% more than I paid, but maybe 2008 was a mess? I snagged plenty of pricing mistakes ... even for stuff like ASM 129 and IM 55 ... at my shop, but not CGC books

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4 hours ago, seanfingh said:

I don't think you can say that anymore.  It's like saying a Basquiet or a Warhol should never sell for as much as a Renoir or even a Remington. But times change and tastes change and art is art. People want what they want.  There are tons of 35 year olds who want a 1st Deadpool who will NEVER buy a Golden Age book.

That's a fair enough statement. Part of the value of many of the golden age books is the scarcity of many of them in decent grade. Or the rarity of them overall. It takes no effort to score virtually any book from 1999. Try 1939. I understand people want what they want. It seems like these days they are pigeons prime for plucking. From The Big Bang Theory:

Scene: The comic book store.

Sheldon: Uh, Stuart, I was wondering if you could help me find something.

Stuart: Happy to, unless it’s hope or a reason to live.

Sheldon: Oh, you make me laugh, sad clown. Anyhoo, Leonard will be back in a couple days and I need a welcome home gift for him. As he’s been at sea, perhaps something with a nautical theme might be appropriate.

Stuart: Okay, well, I don’t know how much you want to spend, but I do have this pretty cool Aquaman statue.

Sheldon: Aquaman? Oh, this isn’t a gag gift, Stuart.

Stuart: Yeah, just as well. It’s a pretty rare piece. I’d rather just sell it to a real collector.

Sheldon: I’m a real collector. How rare is it?

Stuart: Oh, I shouldn’t even have mentioned it. How about a Batman squirt gun?

Sheldon: Don’t try and trick me into buying something I don’t want. Now let’s talk Aquaman.

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23 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

That's a fair enough statement. Part of the value of many of the golden age books is the scarcity of many of them in decent grade. Or the rarity of them overall. It takes no effort to score virtually any book from 1999. Try 1939. I understand people want what they want. It seems like these days they are pigeons prime for plucking. From The Big Bang Theory:

Scene: The comic book store.

Sheldon: Uh, Stuart, I was wondering if you could help me find something.

Stuart: Happy to, unless it’s hope or a reason to live.

Sheldon: Oh, you make me laugh, sad clown. Anyhoo, Leonard will be back in a couple days and I need a welcome home gift for him. As he’s been at sea, perhaps something with a nautical theme might be appropriate.

Stuart: Okay, well, I don’t know how much you want to spend, but I do have this pretty cool Aquaman statue.

Sheldon: Aquaman? Oh, this isn’t a gag gift, Stuart.

Stuart: Yeah, just as well. It’s a pretty rare piece. I’d rather just sell it to a real collector.

Sheldon: I’m a real collector. How rare is it?

Stuart: Oh, I shouldn’t even have mentioned it. How about a Batman squirt gun?

Sheldon: Don’t try and trick me into buying something I don’t want. Now let’s talk Aquaman.

lol

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On 3/13/2021 at 9:32 PM, nines said:

In the sports card world, centering is key. It affects the grade significantly. If that same reasoning applied to comics, I could understand the 9.8 chase. But a 9.8 with a horrendous fold or miscut/printing lines/any of that.. top dollar just doesn't make any sense 

Great point. I include page quality as well. A 9.8 must be perfectly centered and have at LEAST ow/w pages. Seen plenty with ow pages. A few with cr/ow.

Sometimes we see a collector who shows off their 9.8 key book they got and it looks really bad. What made them buy it? Was it inexpensive?

So what if wonky centering is a "manufacturing error"? Still makes the book appear terrible. Bat 222 had a problem with the lower staple not grabbing the cover or centerfold. They get green labels. Why should an offset cover get a blue 9.8? They are both manufacturing error. Errors are only valuable in the coin collecting hobby.

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1 hour ago, Randall Ries said:

Great point. I include page quality as well. A 9.8 must be perfectly centered and have at LEAST ow/w pages. Seen plenty with ow pages. A few with cr/ow.

Sometimes we see a collector who shows off their 9.8 key book they got and it looks really bad. What made them buy it? Was it inexpensive?

So what if wonky centering is a "manufacturing error"? Still makes the book appear terrible. Bat 222 had a problem with the lower staple not grabbing the cover or centerfold. They get green labels. Why should an offset cover get a blue 9.8? They are both manufacturing error. Errors are only valuable in the coin collecting hobby.

Well, a staple either stapled the page, or it didn't. Whereas centering is more of a gray area.

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2 hours ago, Randall Ries said:

Yes. I was saying when the staple misses. That's a manufacturing error same as miscentering.

But there are degrees by which a comic is off. Unlike a card, it's not trimmed on all 4 sides. In the case of a wraparound cover, how do you determine whether it's not centered?

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