The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[KCOComics]

14 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

Well done! What I was feebly trying to say.

There seems to be two different types of investors: One who earns a paycheck every week and the other who had money given to them by Moomers and Pop-Pop. I can't swing a dead cat by its tail without hitting some guy who tells me he is self made. When the truth is he either had money and savings handed to him by his parents or he married wealthy. The true self made man is rare. There is ALWAYS some form of undisclosed advantage people had to see success to the point they can shrug off several thousand dollar losses and just "hang in there".

I always think in terms of the Enron employees who were given matched donations into their 401k plan. Working guys who saw it as their retirement. Or anyone at that time where they had a good amount in their 401k. Wake up one day and during the course of that day watched their future go poof. Their future insofar as eating and paying for their medical stuff as they aged. I'm not naive enough to assume the world is fair. Just that when that happened to millions of people, there were people running around gleefully snickering "Now I'll just buy low! CACKLE!"

I took great care one afternoon pointing out to some 70-ish "self made" braggart on a golf course that I knew he had married into money when he was a young man. His wifes father had the money. Not him. SO, don't get cocky at this point in your life. "Luck" had nothing to do with it. Neither did "hard work". Or "skill".

Nah. There are still plenty of us who may be able to invest to a degree but the first big hit would wipe us out. We can't afford to diversify for one reason or another. A lot of people have to put their money on black and cross their fingers. I would be one of them. It's easy enough when my accountant is a financial advisor as well to say "This is safe!" Everyone thought 401k was safe. They lost everything.

Just to be clear, pop pop never put a dime in my pocket. 

My father was a construction worker and and my mother worked a million jobs from day care companies to bar tender. 

No one paid for me to go to school and I grew up landscaping and working construction. I worked full time to pay my own way through college and I got a job at a big company and have worked hard every day to climb the ladder one foot at a time. 

I learned about investing, that's all. It's not for rich people, it's for everyone. You need a trustworthy source to learn from and you need to trust that time is on your side.  Then get boring. 

 

Also - don't take your investment advice on comic book forums 😂

Edited March 25, 2021 by KCOComics

[THE_BEYONDER]

22 minutes ago, KCOComics said:

This is 100% right. 

Think about a 401k. A little money every month turns into a massive portfolio. Most people aren't picking stocks in their 401k, your investing in well diversified funds and the biggest advantage you have is time. There will be bumps, recessions, corrections, wild bull markets and everything in between. But with enough time, you will always win. 

Personal investing is exactly the same. Low cost, well diversified index funds and enough time in the market. I lost 40% when the pandemic struck. I didn't sell or panic. I just left it alone and now I'm up allot more. 

Individual stocks create risk. You can gamble on some if you want and I do dabble, but the bulk of my investments are in diversified low cost funds. 

The only way to lock in a loss is to sell when the markets down. Because with enough time, the market has always come back stronger than ever. 

You should also have enough cash (emergency fund) so if you lose your job and the market crashes, like what happened during the pandemic for many, you don't have to dip into your investments. 

I’m curious how this relates to the comic market....

Edited March 25, 2021 by THE_BEYONDER

[Shrevvy]

12 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

I always think in terms of the Enron employees who were given matched donations into their 401k plan. Working guys who saw it as their retirement. Or anyone at that time where they had a good amount in their 401k. Wake up one day and during the course of that day watched their future go poof. Their future insofar as eating and paying for their medical stuff as they aged. I'm not naive enough to assume the world is fair. Just that when that happened to millions of people, there were people running around gleefully snickering "Now I'll just buy low! CACKLE!"


Nah. There are still plenty of us who may be able to invest to a degree but the first big hit would wipe us out. We can't afford to diversify for one reason or another. A lot of people have to put their money on black and cross their fingers. I would be one of them. It's easy enough when my accountant is a financial advisor as well to say "This is safe!" Everyone thought 401k was safe. They lost everything.

We are getting far away from comics here, but I don't want a couple of these statements to pass without comment. If Enron matched 401K contributions, those were not lost when Enron went under. Those assets are held outside the firm. It is when Enron matched contributions in Enron stock, which did/does occur. Holding stock in a public company you work for, is a very poor form of diversification. You do not want your investments tied to your paycheck becuase if one goes bad, they both go bad. Does not mean it is right or wrong, but it is a risk judgement. 

Yes, you can afford to diversify. A $100 invested in a mutual fund will get you ownership in 100 or more stocks. You are diversified with $100. You do not need mass amounts of capital to be diversified.  

[oldmilwaukee6er]

13 hours ago, Number 6 said:

 

I’m seriously wondering if I should just take a break on comics for awhile, wait and hope all this dies down in a bit.  Maybe pursue another avenue of collecting...I’m not gonna say what for fear anyone gets any bright ideas. 
 

Just kinda frustrating as I really enjoy comics, I have a long history with it and, up till now, felt I had a pretty good handle on it. 
 

I’m gonna miss it...

Thank you for sharing your perspective. There is much I could pull out of your posting to build on, for example the somewhat empty feeling of purchases, the grey area between wondering and knowing if one got a good deal. 

But I identify most with the quote above. Collectors are gonna collect. And when they get priced out of one hobby they move on to the next affordable collectible. At times I've been priced out or bored of the hobby and moved on - pottery, patches, world silver, poison bottles, and now stupid penny stocks and (someday) digital currency. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by oldmilwaukee6er

[Wally's Comics]

It's all in what you want. I like comics even if they weren't worth much, because of the historical aspect, I'm just lucky that they are worth something. That always seems the case for me though, whenever I like something it doesn't take long before it becomes successful.
Just for reference - I never liked being poor, so I decided to work hard, become educated and learn to work a dollar at an early age even when I didn't have the support to do so. Back in 1978 when the superman craze was gloating on how much a copy of Action 1 was - as soon as I walked out of the theatre from Superman the movie I stopped becoming a just collector and more of an end goal collector. I love spider-man, I've always been a fan of Spidey. I thought to myself back then that $600 (guide) for an AF 15 would be a deal because one day (and I told a lot of people that laughed this) There's going to be a spidey movie that people will love. At the time Spider-man was goofy TV show - that was BAD. So I saved and I thought that I might not find an AF15 right of the bat so I started going to shows and picking up ASMs that I could afford while I searched for one. The day did come in 1979 where I found at the Raleigh flea market a guy that was behind on his alimony was selling his comic collection that included an AF15. The only problem was I was little short. The man wanted half guide $300 and all I had was $250. As a 10 year old with pocket full of grass cutting money would do I begged the man and he said come back at closing and if it's still here... and I did and this is where I became the collector I am today because right then as we were doing the deal my Dad (which is very frugal/stingy) flipped out when he saw that I was going to buy a comic for $200!!! I was literally dragged from it. It's crazy but in the months at that followed I would check the PG and see that it went up and by the time I had the full money the market would raise it to another ceiling and this would happen over and over. When I was in my teens, when I was in the army, when I was in college. I told people my story and by college I had ASM 130–present, still on the journey, still looking, after college I bought down to ASM 100 and opportunity finally came. I had 10k and a people laughed when I drove18 hours to get my AF 15 finally in CGC. I paid over guide for it, I didn't care - I've been following this book most of my life and I was going to get it.  and I did...

The thing is this mind set made me have the same drive for any comic first app and it had me less patient that I have learned in a painful way.
I bought a Hulk 181 right after the CGC bronze bubble burst around 2005. Regardless of all the x-men/wolverine movies that book just wouldn't go up for SIX YEARS! I got tired of that and in 2011 I flipped it and a GSX1 for the same price I bought them for (just dumb for not being patient) and FINALLY only a few months after my flip- the Millennials "POOF" had $$$ and the IH 181 was their baby. LOL!

Oh well lessons learned, flip when it's hot, books are very cyclical... The time value of money (meaning $1 today isn't $1 tomorrow) so with that in mind try to avoid flipping a book just to get your money out of it mindset. Stay focused on goals and you will get there.

[Number 6]

21 minutes ago, Shrevvy said:

Whether you believe me or not, look at what is available on eBay. Look at the book instead of the grade. The 9.4 on CL with White pages and near perfect centering is a better looking copy than the 9.6s on eBay. My comment was as much tongue in cheek as anything, but if the winner wants to sell me the book send me a PM. Let's just have a friendly conversation here.

Yes, I think Batman #227 is a key book. Last 9.2 in Jan sold for $2400. Not sure many would debate that it is not a key book. Detective 403 or the covers around it are not key books now. But I don't doubt that one of the covers could be seen as a key in the future and be priced accordingly. There are hundreds of examples of this happening in golden age. No reason that collectible cover mentality does not trickle into silver, bronze and copper. It already has, just not to the extent as the golden age.

Not trying to be unfriendly, just being a bit tongue-in-cheeky. 
 

Let me try to explain my view from a different angle:

Last night there was a Detective #408 9.4 with white pages and perfect centering. Not only does it have a good Neal Adams cover but also interior art. It sold for $405. 
 

So is the difference between a Neal Adams cover issues and a cover/interior art issue really only $80.00?

Yeah, I think #403 is a cool cover but that’s a subjective thing.  The spread between a cover only book and interior/cover issue really seems like it should be bigger. 
 

If this is a byproduct of the slab culture than it really concerns me. 

[Wally's Comics]

1 hour ago, Bluemedgroup said:

What's OSPG?  Google says it is Overseas Security Policy Group: OSPG: Operation Support Group Prototype

Overstreet Price Guide

[KCOComics]

26 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

I’m curious how this relates to the comic market....

You are right! Got a bit side tracked. 

I'm clueless on the comic book market. 

No idea where it goes from here. 

[the blob]

15 hours ago, Darkowl said:

I believe  that’s what they said right before the 2008 housing crash.

In fact, a good buddy of mine told me to buy a house right before the crash. He said, “You can NEVER going wrong with buying real estate!”. 

So I went to the bank to get a loan, and was turned down. That turned out to be the biggest financial blessing in disguise. I would have lost big time!

While I don't know about certain hyped markets in Florida and Las Vegas, haven't most things bounced back? The housing crash was aided and abetted by an incredible amount of outright fraudulent mortgage financing, not just loose credit, which I don't think was fully appreciated by folks at the time.

Anyway, I bought in December 2006. My house went up another 10% before the crash brought my house down to purchase price give or take 5%. It is now worth 2X that (and was pre-pandemic as well). So, while you can go wrong short term in real estate, long term is another issue, although some areas do die horrible deaths that can take a long time, if ever, to recover from, and yes, some pricing in those crazy bubble times in Florida might not be duplicated... I am not sure where the market is now down there. At the time I really wanted to buy a cheap condo in Miami or somewhere, but just didn't have $50-75K in cash sitting around, the credit score to get another mortgage, or the resources to pay HOA/taxes on a place I couldn't rent and would only use a little. oh well.

I wish i had money during the crash to buy real estate (or anything), but I was squeezed with a lower paying job, young kids, etc. then. every month was a scramble to pay bills. oh well.

[the blob]

"Everyone knows that real estate goes up and down, and there’s a proven track record for it. Ironically, no one saw the 2008 crash coming, but by your logic, people would be just fine today if they had held onto their property, because we’re now at a high (was it worth the wait?)"

Almost everyone saw the 2008 crash coming. They just didn't necessarily appreciate the scope of it or how long the funk would last. Or they weren't in a position to do anything about it. Believe me, here and on the lawyer chat boards I used to inhabit, there was plenty of talk about all the impending crashes.As for "holding on to your property"... if you need a place to live, isn't that what most people did? 

The people who primarily got burned (and lost homes) were buying properties they could not afford in the first place or could only afford if their circumstances never changed (two earners continued earning 2 incomes). $60K family income taking on a $500K mortgage only made possible by a lot of creating b.s. on the loan application put in by the mortgage broker. I don't know if these people thought they could flip and make a profit in a rising market or just keep ion refinancing as prices went up and use the cash back to pay the mortgage or whatever, I have no idea. I admit I miscalculated my future cost of living and future income a bit when i took on my mortgage, so things were rough, but we managed. But seriously, I had a cousin who thought I was an insufficiently_thoughtful_person for having equity in my home. His view was that I should refinance to the maximum I could every year or two and extract every bit of equity out of it. That would have left me with  a mortgage in 2008 I could never pay, rather than one I could struggle with. And no doubt the cash I had pulled out of the house would have been spent on B.S. or not invested all that well. I didn't take financial advise from him given that I know he had declared bankruptcy three times!

Anyway, it will be interesting to see if more shows opening up in the summer impacts things. 

[DanCooper]

The years upon years of the "bored, rich" people phenomenon, that has gone on in the fine art market ($120,000 for a banana duct taped to a wall? etc.), has finally infiltrated the world of collectables of the common man. Sheer insanity!

During most of my collecting life, I always felt most books were within in my means to add to my collection, if opportunity presented itself. Yes, over time, books like Action 1, Tec 27, Batman 1, etc. became "out of my league" due to price, but I always felt the majority of books, in grade, were obtainable. Now, most books seem out of reach. How many people can consistently keep adding five-figure books (or even $5,000+) to one's collection nowadays?

There has always been a "whale" or two in the hobby, at any given time. Most, left the hobby, either through impatience or being burned through greed. At least, these "collectors" had some knowledge of the hobby and I would say a "love" for it. Now, it seems  a lot of the new money that is coming into the hobby is just throwing money around at things for bragging rights (like the fine art market)

I know there have been countless threads, over the years, about a "crash" in the comic market, but nothing ever occurred. There won't be crash now either, but this hobby is entering very fragile waters over the next couple of years and it will be interesting to see how all this plays out.

Edited March 25, 2021 by DanCooper

[the blob]

15 hours ago, Randall Ries said:

You WERE blessed. I bought at the height of the bubble. First house. Only house so far. "Too big to fail" me heinie. Talk about hubris. We are doing ok now, though. But 6 months after we bought, Freddie and Fanny flopped over. Lost $40k overnight in value. That felt so good.

paper value. meaningless long term unless your plan was to sell the house in the short term or use it to take out HELOCs and live off the equity.

that's why i was unphased in 2008-2012 by this stuff. I bought at the end of 2006. I had no intention of selling any time soon.

of course, that is the opposite of comic flippers.... If people laying out $20K for a nice IH 181 are doing so as keepers/collectors want a cool iconic book for the long haul, there is hope

[the blob]

1 minute ago, DanCooper said:

The years upon years of the "bored, rich" people phenomenon, that has gone on in the fine art market ($120,000 for a banana duct taped to a wall? etc.), has finally infiltrated the world of collectables of the common man. Sheer insanity!

During most of my collecting life, I always felt most books were within in my means to add to my collection, if opportunity presented itself. Yes, over time, books like Action 1, Tec 27, Batman 1, etc. became "out of my league" due to price, but I always felt the majority of books, in grade were obtainable. Now, most books seem out of reach. How many people can consistently keep adding five-figure books (or even $5,000+) to one's collection nowadays?

There has always been a "whale" or two in the hobby, at any given time. Most, left the hobby, either through impatience or being burned through greed. At least, these "collectors" had some knowledge of the hobby and I would say a "love" for it. Now, it seems  a lot of the new money that is coming into the hobby is just throwing money around at things for bragging rights (like the fine art market)

I know there have countless threads, over the years, about a "crash" in the comic market, but noting ever occurred. There won't be crash now either, but this hobby is entering very fragile waters over the next couple of years and it will be interesting to see how all this plays out.

some 32 year olds who were 21 when they put their tip money into bitcoin in 2010 need somewhere to park their hundreds of millions in profits

[StingerMcK]

Im very curious how prices will be at cons, as they start to become a thing again.  You always hear about dealers making a killing at a show, and other dealers who make nothing, because the casuals and cosplayers aren't spending money.  If cons have eBay and Clink prices, the casuals will continue to not buy., but will collectors pay those prices in person? And will the 'bored rich' go to a con to get more books?

[the blob]

1 minute ago, StingerMcK said:

Im very curious how prices will be at cons, as they start to become a thing again.  You always hear about dealers making a killing at a show, and other dealers who make nothing, because the casuals and cosplayers aren't spending money.  If cons have eBay and Clink prices, the casuals will continue to not buy., but will collectors pay those prices in person? And will the 'bored rich' go to a con to get more books?

I don't think the "bored rich" are folks fueling the spike in $20-100 raws and the zillions of minor chase keys. they're jacking up four and five digit key slabs. And i don't think they're going to a con for the most part.

I'm selling those raws to other comic collectors or maybe flippers/speculators, who knows? People who seem to be buying and selling a fair amount of comics based on their feedback (just like my feedback looks like now that I only have 1 active ebay account). They haggle me on price, but understand that the last month or so of ebay sales are relevant. I just sold a bunch of Marvel horror themed BA books (Drcula, Werewolf, Morbius, Blade) for really nice chunky prices and these folks were collectors. Ditto for the Star Wars comics and so on.

[Bluemedgroup]

53 minutes ago, Wally's Comics said:

It's all in what you want. I like comics even if they weren't worth much, because of the historical aspect, I'm just lucky that they are worth something. That always seems the case for me though, whenever I like something it doesn't take long before it becomes successful.
Just for reference - I never liked being poor, so I decided to work hard, become educated and learn to work a dollar at an early age even when I didn't have the support to do so. Back in 1978 when the superman craze was gloating on how much a copy of Action 1 was - as soon as I walked out of the theatre from Superman the movie I stopped becoming a just collector and more of an end goal collector. I love spider-man, I've always been a fan of Spidey. I thought to myself back then that $600 (guide) for an AF 15 would be a deal because one day (and I told a lot of people that laughed this) There's going to be a spidey movie that people will love. At the time Spider-man was goofy TV show - that was BAD. So I saved and I thought that I might not find an AF15 right of the bat so I started going to shows and picking up ASMs that I could afford while I searched for one. The day did come in 1979 where I found at the Raleigh flea market a guy that was behind on his alimony was selling his comic collection that included an AF15. The only problem was I was little short. The man wanted half guide $300 and all I had was $250. As a 10 year old with pocket full of grass cutting money would do I begged the man and he said come back at closing and if it's still here... and I did and this is where I became the collector I am today because right then as we were doing the deal my Dad (which is very frugal/stingy) flipped out when he saw that I was going to buy a comic for $200!!! I was literally dragged from it. It's crazy but in the months at that followed I would check the PG and see that it went up and by the time I had the full money the market would raise it to another ceiling and this would happen over and over. When I was in my teens, when I was in the army, when I was in college. I told people my story and by college I had ASM 130–present, still on the journey, still looking, after college I bought down to ASM 100 and opportunity finally came. I had 10k and a people laughed when I drove18 hours to get my AF 15 finally in CGC. I paid over guide for it, I didn't care - I've been following this book most of my life and I was going to get it.  and I did...

The thing is this mind set made me have the same drive for any comic first app and it had me less patient that I have learned in a painful way.
I bought a Hulk 181 right after the CGC bronze bubble burst around 2005. Regardless of all the x-men/wolverine movies that book just wouldn't go up for SIX YEARS! I got tired of that and in 2011 I flipped it and a GSX1 for the same price I bought them for (just dumb for not being patient) and FINALLY only a few months after my flip- the Millennials "POOF" had $$$ and the IH 181 was their baby. LOL!

Oh well lessons learned, flip when it's hot, books are very cyclical... The time value of money (meaning $1 today isn't $1 tomorrow) so with that in mind try to avoid flipping a book just to get your money out of it mindset. Stay focused on goals and you will get there.

Your story rings so many bells with me.  I was convinced last year that X-Men 1 was undervalued.  So I flew out to Wisconsin, met the seller and bought an X-Men 1 during the 30 minute layover, and hopped right back on the plane back to Oklahoma.  Everyone thought I was crazy for emptying my bank savings account for it.  But I got it and it's obviously done well the past few months.  

 

Likewise, I've also made mistakes not holding on to books.  I held onto DD1 and GSX1 for two years, I had about 4-5 CGC copies of DD1 in 4.0-5.5 range some signed by Stan Lee, and 4 copies GSX1 7.5-9.0.  Sold them all last year right when Covid hit for maybe a couple hundred in profit.  Agree with you, definitely need to try avoiding flipping a book just to get your money out of it, I was too impatient.  It seems like with key comics, hold it long enough and that book will finally see its time in the spotlight.  

[Poekaymon]

8 hours ago, Darkowl said:

I think the biggest problem with your logic is that you aren’t taking into consideration the amount of time that it might take for something to recover...if you’re lucky enough for it to recover.

Ah well, I tried.  Carry on.

[Shrevvy]

1 hour ago, Number 6 said:

Not trying to be unfriendly, just being a bit tongue-in-cheeky. 
 

Let me try to explain my view from a different angle:

Last night there was a Detective #408 9.4 with white pages and perfect centering. Not only does it have a good Neal Adams cover but also interior art. It sold for $405. 
 

So is the difference between a Neal Adams cover issues and a cover/interior art issue really only $80.00?

Yeah, I think #403 is a cool cover but that’s a subjective thing.  The spread between a cover only book and interior/cover issue really seems like it should be bigger. 
 

If this is a byproduct of the slab culture than it really concerns me. 

I agree. Interior art has been de-empasized with slabs. It has been for a long time now and will probably get worse. I always liked X-men #108 and that was a key book in the new X-men run in years past. First Byrne art on the X-men series. It no longer holds the prominence it once did despite the Byrne/Claremont run still being held in high regard. I do own a 9.8, but also have a copy to read.

The Detective #403 cover is better than #408, but that is subjective. My opinion, of course.

In gold, Baker covers are big money. Interiors, not so much. I have been a Baker collector well before those books took off. A Bker cover with no "desirable" interior art brings far more than a book without a Baker cover, but multiple Baker interior stories. Look at Teen-Age Diary Secrets (except for the Marilyn Monroe cover, which has also started moving), all of which have multiple Baker stories but no Baker covers. They bring 1/5 to 1/10 of what any Cinderella Love with a Baker cover brings. The Cinderella Love are all reprints with no Baker interior art. 

Slabs are the reason I think we will get more "key" covers in the silver, bronze and copper ages. It has already happened in gold. 

[Wally's Comics]

21 minutes ago, StingerMcK said:

Im very curious how prices will be at cons, as they start to become a thing again.  You always hear about dealers making a killing at a show, and other dealers who make nothing, because the casuals and cosplayers aren't spending money.  If cons have eBay and Clink prices, the casuals will continue to not buy., but will collectors pay those prices in person? And will the 'bored rich' go to a con to get more books?

I just had my 1st Covid shot, so next con (where ever it is) I'm going! 
There are 2 things that can happen between now and then - One the market will cool? or more likely the prices will set at the high level to a place where an educated person can learn what can be bought without getting burned. I on one hand think there will be a lot of deals! But you never know may of the dealers that I know that do shows didn't like to sell online and that could've changed since Covid.

Sad enough I had the best show of my life right before this Covid slop...

[theCapraAegagrus]