In light of the SA price explosion, is GA the place to put new funds instead? 5 5

[Paul © ® ⚽️💙™]

2 hours ago, Dark Knight said:

All in on X-Force #1, the next X-Men #1!

I raise you Howard the Duck.

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

 like GA over SA due to the rarity factor. Just look at the population of some the SA keys in terms of number of copies. There is a reason it is is called "gold"...it is the rarest and highest comic book collection label. On that note, while the immediate return on you comic book investment, might grow at a smaller rate the safety factor is much higher due to limited supply.

In today's red hot marketplace with books seemingly turning over at super high speed, I am leaning towards this rarity factor and limited supply as actually being a big negative and a huge drag on the GA books.    

With today's CGC generation of collectors and crypto investors, their collecting life span for a book might possibly be measure only in months or even weeks as opposed to years or decades for the old time collectors like us.  They probably don't have much interest in chasing after a book that shows up in the marketplace only once every several years, as opposed to a readily available newer book that shows up in the marketplace multiple times in every single auction.  It's almost like an addict who needs to get their rush on a steady and regular basis. 

Perfect case in point being Giant Size X-Men 1 which is definitely not rare and not suffering from a limited supply as they had a total of 11 copies in the CL auction the other day ranging from almost $3K for a lowly CGC graded copy right up to this CGC 9.8 graded copy here:  

 

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3Fwhere%3Dsell%26title%3Dgiant%20size%20x-men%201%26ItemType%3DCB%26CGC%3D%23Item_1468605&id=1468605&itemType=0

 

Heck, even though we were all saying that the $40,500 paid on CL just last month a CGC 9.8 graded copy of this book was looking rather insane, what do we say now when this copy here (is that a fugly crushed staple spine indentation on the bottom left here ) sells for a mind blowing $67,900 a few short weeks later.    

    , the money that is!!!  

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by lou_fine

[drbanner]

Good points Lou, it's pretty obvious Silver/Bronze will drive the market moving forward. There's enough supply out there to support an active market, and books like GS X-men 1 have become pop culture icons. If you think about it, there's only a 20/25-year difference between peak GA and peak SA, which occurred almost 50 years ago. In another 25 years there will be even less of a difference between a 100-year old book and an 80-year old book, other than most people will know the stories/characters of the 80-year old books.

[Mr.Fantastic]

As a former card collector I think GA books are relative to T206/Goudey Pre-war cards and SA books are relative to cards from the 50/60s.  While the older cards appreciated in value the cards from the 50s and 60s like Mantle, Mays, Aaron etc saw meteoric rises in value during my collecting days.  Probably because these were the cards/players that most collectors with money at that time knew growing up and wanted, and these players were retiring and going into the HOF and passing away.  Now this didn't equate to the Pre-war cards losing value, instead these cards saw there values rise as well. While the people who remember Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth's playing days are probably almost non-existent these days the cards still demand a premium value, and have seen some nice rises in value as well. An old sports card collector once told me the old pre-war cards are like bonds and the newer (then 50/60s cards) are more like stocks. I remember that to this day and think it holds true with GA and SA comics as well.

[PeterPark]

Golden Age has been this for a long time. I mostly stopped buying Silver Age books en masse around 2013.

[lou_fine]

14 hours ago, Mr.Fantastic said:

As a former card collector I think GA books are relative to T206/Goudey Pre-war cards and SA books are relative to cards from the 50/60s.  While the older cards appreciated in value the cards from the 50s and 60s like Mantle, Mays, Aaron etc saw meteoric rises in value during my collecting days.  Probably because these were the cards/players that most collectors with money at that time knew growing up and wanted, and these players were retiring and going into the HOF and passing away.  Now this didn't equate to the Pre-war cards losing value, instead these cards saw there values rise as well. While the people who remember Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth's playing days are probably almost non-existent these days the cards still demand a premium value, and have seen some nice rises in value as well. An old sports card collector once told me the old pre-war cards are like bonds and the newer (then 50/60s cards) are more like stocks. I remember that to this day and think it holds true with GA and SA comics as well.

This is actually an excellent analogy and very apt to what is taking place in the comic book marketplace right now and most likely going forward.  

All you need do is take a look at the current CC Event Auction which has now been running for close to a week and take a look at the GS X-Men 1 which @drbanner had mentioned in his earlier post up above.  Even though there's over 10,000 copies slabbed to date already and over 200 copies graded in CGC 9.8, the copy that is listed in the CC Auction is already sitting at $33,500 and possibly on its way into the $60K range or above.  And yet at the same time, you've got Single Highest Graded copies of Dell File copies from the late 30's or very early 40's with only a handful total or less in the CGC census to date still sitting at single dollar digits or still even awaiting their first bid.  

I guess like Cobb and Ruth, even former well remembered characters like Flash Gordon gets thrown into the trash heap as time goes on.  Even then, still find it rather strange though that a Transformers 1 with almost 3,300 copies slabbed to date will still command $44K, while this gorgeous looking Single Highest Graded copy of Flash Gordon with a whopping total of only 11 copies slabbed to date is going to need some crypto investor to dig real extra deep into their pockets if they want to win it as it's sitting at the grand total of a big big $6 after almost a whole week of bidding:  

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/820399

I guess it must be the 2020 updated re-released version of the classic Flash Gordon movie that must be driving the prices so high, or was that the Flesh Gordon movie?  

Edited March 27, 2021 by lou_fine

[Crowzilla]

23 hours ago, lou_fine said:

In today's red hot marketplace with books seemingly turning over at super high speed, I am leaning towards this rarity factor and limited supply as actually being a big negative and a huge drag on the GA books.    

With today's CGC generation of collectors and crypto investors, their collecting life span for a book might possibly be measure only in months or even weeks as opposed to years or decades for the old time collectors like us.  They probably don't have much interest in chasing after a book that shows up in the marketplace only once every several years, as opposed to a readily available newer book that shows up in the marketplace multiple times in every single auction.  It's almost like an addict who needs to get their rush on a steady and regular basis. 

All this ^.

We've been raise to believe that rising SA makes GA look cheap, then when GA rises it circles back to SA, but the new reality is that there is a total disconnect and the markets no longer have anything to do with each other. I work with some younger attorneys who are starting to hit prime earning years (mid 30s+) that collect and these are the guys that think nothing of spending $10K on a Star Wars comic (no, not a 35¢ price variant, the 1st appearance of Ahsoka variant) and think that a first Miles Morales variant for $15K is a bargain they need to snap up today. They would buy SA, but there are literally only a handful of GA books they would even consider buying, and aside from a "27" none of those books has a number other than "1" on them. Superman 2? or even 14 or 17? nope. Action 7, or 10? no thanks. Why buy a nice late number Cap or Marvel Mystery for $2500 when you can get an Eternals #1 for the same price. She-Hulk #1 has doubled in the last six months, what has GA done?

And for another out of whack example, THE key 80s book. 3 weeks ago it was less than $20K, for a 9.6, now this copy is sitting at $50K . The 9.8 buyers are looking extra smart right now.

Turtles #1

Edited March 27, 2021 by Crowzilla
grammar

[Peter G]

bubble trouble

[Mr.Fantastic]

5 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

All this ^.

We've been raise to believe that rising SA makes GA look cheap, then when GA rises it circles back to SA, but the new reality is that there is a total disconnect and the markets no longer have anything to do with each other. I work with some younger attorneys who are starting to hit prime earning years (mid 30s+) that collect and these are the guys that think nothing of spending $10K on a Star Wars comic (no, not a 35¢ price variant, the 1st appearance of Ahsoka variant) and think that a first Miles Morales variant for $15K is a bargain they need to snap up today. They would buy SA, but there are literally only a handful of GA books they would even consider buying, and aside from a "27" none of those books has a number other than "1" on them. Superman 2? or even 14 or 17? nope. Action 7, or 10? no thanks. Why buy a nice late number Cap or Marvel Mystery for $2500 when you can get an Eternals #1 for the same price. She-Hulk #1 has doubled in the last six months, what has GA done?

And for another out of whack example, THE key 80s book. 3 weeks ago it was less than $20K, for a 9.6, now this copy is sitting at $50K . The 9.8 buyers are looking extra smart right now.

Turtles #1

The disconnect you mention proves your first point. When people are so focused on one area of the market it makes the other areas look cheap.  Eventually the pendulum will swing, and GA prices will rise. The three types of people I see in this current market are collectors, investors, and speculators. When prices start to fall so will speculations and investing to some degree, leaving the collectors.

[Readcomix]

So based on a lot of the logic we are espousing here about newer collectors, highly visible and relatively available GA keys should have the most percentage increase upside for those investor collectors; so....Batman 1, Cap 1, etc. What else? Someone suggested GA keys without a #1 on the cover don’t have a shot, but I’m not sure I agree with that. The more one dabbles, the more one learns. Superman 14/Batman 11-type books seem like decent possibilities among these types of books, IMO.

[tth2]

8 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

All this ^.

We've been raise to believe that rising SA makes GA look cheap, then when GA rises it circles back to SA, but the new reality is that there is a total disconnect and the markets no longer have anything to do with each other. I work with some younger attorneys who are starting to hit prime earning years (mid 30s+) that collect and these are the guys that think nothing of spending $10K on a Star Wars comic (no, not a 35¢ price variant, the 1st appearance of Ahsoka variant) and think that a first Miles Morales variant for $15K is a bargain they need to snap up today. They would buy SA, but there are literally only a handful of GA books they would even consider buying, and aside from a "27" none of those books has a number other than "1" on them. Superman 2? or even 14 or 17? nope. Action 7, or 10? no thanks. Why buy a nice late number Cap or Marvel Mystery for $2500 when you can get an Eternals #1 for the same price. She-Hulk #1 has doubled in the last six months, what has GA done?

And for another out of whack example, THE key 80s book. 3 weeks ago it was less than $20K, for a 9.6, now this copy is sitting at $50K . The 9.8 buyers are looking extra smart right now.

Turtles #1

Can anyone think of a situation like this that ever ended well for the rubes?

Once again, fat and dumb lambs are being led in for the slaughter.

[Mr.Fantastic]

1 hour ago, tth2 said:

Can anyone think of a situation like this that ever ended well for the rubes?

Once again, fat and dumb lambs are being led in for the slaughter.

IDK.  I think a lot of the new money from young investors is due to them not being exposed to market corrections in their lifetimes.  Most them were too young to remember the recession from 2007-2009 or the dot com bubble in the 90's. I think when you see Tesla, Game stop, etc. going up without any repercussions, then you think you are bullet proof.  Personally, I have always been more of a conservative value investor with any type of asset I choose to invest.

[Dark Knight]

$GME to the moon!!!

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Readcomix said:

The more one dabbles, the more one learns.

That's assuming these new very deep pocketed sports cards and crypto investors moving into the comic book marketplace even want to learn anything at all about the comic book marketplace beyond the first appearance of a character which they can recognize and the CGC highest graded copy of that particular book.  

I very much highly doubt it as they'll probably have lost interest and have already moved onto the next hot investment long before they find out what why books like Cap 3, 'Tec 31, Fantastic 3, and God forbid even Centaurs are worth pursuing, let alone actually putting in a bid for one of them.    

Edited March 27, 2021 by lou_fine

[Mmehdy]

On 3/26/2021 at 12:51 AM, lou_fine said:

In today's red hot marketplace with books seemingly turning over at super high speed, I am leaning towards this rarity factor and limited supply as actually being a big negative and a huge drag on the GA books.    

With today's CGC generation of collectors and crypto investors, their collecting life span for a book might possibly be measure only in months or even weeks as opposed to years or decades for the old time collectors like us.  They probably don't have much interest in chasing after a book that shows up in the marketplace only once every several years, as opposed to a readily available newer book that shows up in the marketplace multiple times in every single auction.  It's almost like an addict who needs to get their rush on a steady and regular basis. 

Perfect case in point being Giant Size X-Men 1 which is definitely not rare and not suffering from a limited supply as they had a total of 11 copies in the CL auction the other day ranging from almost $3K for a lowly CGC graded copy right up to this CGC 9.8 graded copy here:  

 

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3Fwhere%3Dsell%26title%3Dgiant%20size%20x-men%201%26ItemType%3DCB%26CGC%3D%23Item_1468605&id=1468605&itemType=0

 

Heck, even though we were all saying that the $40,500 paid on CL just last month a CGC 9.8 graded copy of this book was looking rather insane, what do we say now when this copy here (is that a fugly crushed staple spine indentation on the bottom left here ) sells for a mind blowing $67,900 a few short weeks later.    

    , the money that is!!!  

 

Lou, as a long time collector like myself 30,40, and in my case 50+ I am shocked by your statement. Shocked because you and I both should look at GA comic book collecting in the long run. Just because we are in a giant BUBBLE which could never be sustained over 5 or 10 year period of  on a cgc graded comic book with over 10,000 graded copies that price jumps from 40k to 67.9 K in a heartbeat(last month). You statement that rarity and limited supply is a negative factor for GA Books in todays market does not take into account WHO is buying these books and for What purpose. The wild speculators who are pumping up this book to $67,500 for a "weak" 9.8 copy with crushed staple are gonna run for the hills the minute there is a market correction. I know neither you or I would ever pay 67K for book, but in the world of Bitcoin, Gamestop stock, and Pokenman boxed card sets it does a disservice to say that GA comic book are not subject to such wild speculation and that it is a negative. I respond to you Lou with this thought...THANK GOD....our GA comic book market will be staple, sane and reward true comic book collectors who maintain a collection for a significant period of time. If you think I , you or any true comic book collector would take 14 3/4  9.8 Giant X-Men copies  for one copy of action comics #1 in say 5.0 which is equal price of $1,000,000...thats right 15 copies is $1,018,500 at current speculation price levels, is is impossible to compare this.

 Your advice should only apply to fly-by-night speculator. The "huge drag" you refer to, is in the a protective shield to keep out GA market in reality. It is not a negative, in fact it is refreshing,  both today and in the future for all of us True GA comic book collectors who want reality in the market. Price stability is the key to long term true and real price growth.

 This is a positive Lou.

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Mmehdy

[Professor K]

I know a guy about who's been collecting sports cards for a few decades. He's really up on what's going on in that field, and he's always bidding in auctions. So I trust his knowledge.Plus his personality seems pretty straight up. 

So recently I said to him that if I was going to branch out into cards I would get the old stuff - Goudys, Tobacco cards, pre WWII stuff. Gehrigs,Ruths, Cobbs, and other great players of the day. His response was, "Nobody wants them". I was kind of shocked he said that. He said most people buying cards today are buying the new stuff. I hope, if this is true, that the same applies/will apply to comics as the competition for these scarce GA's is already strong enough. (to me anything under around 100 or even 200 blue labels is scarce). 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Professor Chaos

[Mr.Fantastic]

1 hour ago, Professor Chaos said:

I know a guy about who's been collecting sports cards for a few decades. He's really up on what's going on in that field, and he's always bidding in auctions. So I trust his knowledge.Plus his personality seems pretty straight up. 

So recently I said to him that if I was going to branch out into cards I would get the old stuff - Goudys, Tobacco cards, pre WWII stuff. Gehrigs,Ruths, Cobbs, and other great players of the day. His response was, "Nobody wants them". I was kind of shocked he said that. He said most people buying cards today are buying the new stuff. I hope, if this is true, that the same applies/will apply to comics as the competition for these scarce GA's is already strong enough. (to me anything under around 100 or even 200 blue labels is scarce). 

 

I don't think it's entirely true that nobody wants them, I think its the fact that nobody can afford them anymore.   Oh of course the big money collectors can, but believe me there are still a lot of people out there who want them, just at the right price. I always told myself in my early card collecting days that I would get myself a 33 Goudey Ruth card someday.  Well, I had several chances in the early to mid-2000s to get a low mid-grade one for around $2-3K but never pulled the trigger thinking the price was just a bit to high for me. Since then the price has went up 3 to 5 times what I could have bought it for. Could I get one....sure, but probably not going to spend the $15-20K now to do so.

[Dark Knight]

There are still quite a lot of sports card collectors/investors buying the older cards.  A T206 Wagner PSA 3 sold late last year for $3.25 mil and just a couple months ago a 52 Mantle PSA 9 sold for around $5 mil.  Just a couple blockbuster sales. 

It's all about certain sports figures like Ruth, Mantle, Gretzky, Trout, Jordan, Lebron, Kobe will always fetch high sale prices and likely continue to go up in value.  Yeah the newer modern cards are gaining a lot of value because of all the hoopla with serial numbered cards and colored refractors of star players today who are out there on television for the world to see. It creates a lot of excitement and buzz. Not to mention businesses that do sports card breaking, pretty much like gambling in hopes that the breaker pulls a high end card for the player or team you purchased. That business is booming and doing quite well. 

So to sum, it's a mixed bag. People will collect vintage cards, some collect newer ones, and others collect both.

[Mr.Fantastic]

If it's any indication of how GA comics are perceived. I heard a grumpy guy looking through comics at the antique market today.  As I walked by I heard him say "None of these Sum itches is old or worth a ".  So there you have it.  Random grumpy guy at the antique market says old comics good, new comics bad. LOL.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Mr.Fantastic

[Professor K]

3 hours ago, Mr.Fantastic said:

I don't think it's entirely true that nobody wants them, I think its the fact that nobody can afford them anymore.   Oh of course the big money collectors can, but believe me there are still a lot of people out there who want them, just at the right price. I always told myself in my early card collecting days that I would get myself a 33 Goudey Ruth card someday.  Well, I had several chances in the early to mid-2000s to get a low mid-grade one for around $2-3K but never pulled the trigger thinking the price was just a bit to high for me. Since then the price has went up 3 to 5 times what I could have bought it for. Could I get one....sure, but probably not going to spend the $15-20K now to do so.

Oh yes of course its not true. My friend was surely exaggerating when he said "nobody" wants them.I should have said that. I took it to mean most of them are buying and driving up players who are currently playing. New stuff. A lot of the money is going toward that. If so I say good. 

I wanted a 33 Gehrig myself.