In light of the SA price explosion, is GA the place to put new funds instead? 5 5

[Mr.Fantastic]

19 minutes ago, Professor Chaos said:

Oh yes of course its not true. My friend was surely exaggerating when he said "nobody" wants them.I should have said that. I took it to mean most of them are buying and driving up players who are currently playing. New stuff. A lot of the money is going toward that. If so I say good. 

I wanted a 33 Gehrig myself. 

 

 

I actually had a 33 Gehrig at one time, and like a lot of others sold it off. It's almost like the 80's happening all over again in card collecting.  Back then people were chasing Rated Rookies of hot players, Foil inserts, etc. Who would have thought the most sought after cards from the decade would come from 30 cent basketball packs produced by Fleer as an afterthought. 

[DarthVegas]

I just joined a few days ago. Truly no idea why that join date is there or who Dylan is. I mentioned "key" comics and I do believe that there are a number of silver and bronze "keys" that still have room. Just an opinion, and I may be wrong. Yes, there is a large supply, but there are people who are now adding one to ten comics to a card collection. Or action figure collection. Or just plain ole speculation .... all of which will drive prices. 

[tth2]

19 hours ago, Mr.Fantastic said:

IDK.  I think a lot of the new money from young investors is due to them not being exposed to market corrections in their lifetimes.  Most them were too young to remember the recession from 2007-2009 or the dot com bubble in the 90's.

This is pretty much the definition of a lamb that is being fattened up for slaughter.

No one talks about a scarred, battle-hardened ram who's seen good times and bad times being led to slaughter.

Edited March 28, 2021 by tth2

[Crowzilla]

1 hour ago, tth2 said:

This is pretty much the definition of a lamb that is being fattened up for slaughter.

No talks about a scarred, battle-hardened ram who's seen good times and bad times being led to slaughter.

Bitcoin could lose half it's value or more and these kids would be fine, and the ones I know at least are still working their jobs so not sure a downturn will dissuade them other than as another buying opportunity.

We are wrong to blanket characterize them as not being "real collectors" (whatever that means). Who cares if they don't know and don't ever care to buy Centaurs. They grew up reading/watching X-men, Turtles, Batman, etc. and that is what they are going after. One of my friends just paid what to me is stupid money for a 9.8 GS X-men 1 (not the $69K stupid, but 3 weeks ago stupid). He has no interest in selling, because it's a book he's always wanted and now he has it. If the bottom falls out later this year or next, I imagine he will be happy that it will be cheaper for him to add a 9.8 Hulk 181 (or whatever) to his collection. I can't say that he's wrong - especially as regard to Centaurs. Look at the flagship book for Centaur, the Church A-Man #5. when Heritage sold it in 2002, the description stated "Seasoned collectors will recognize this copy as definite Blue Chip material", and it sold for more than $63K (3x guide+). The buyer held it for more than a decade, guided nearly doubled in that time and yet when he sold it in 2014 it only brought $56K. Hardly what I'd call blue chip for a 12 year investment. Has anyone ever lost money holding a high grade GS1 or IH 181 for 12 years? People here made a lot of fun of the buyer of the TMNT #1 for $90K when another copy later sold the same year for $52K, but I don't think we are going to see a 9.8 copy under six figures again. Great deal for the $52K buyer, but I don't think the first guy was necessarily wrong.

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

People here made a lot of fun of the buyer of the TMNT #1 for $90K when another copy later sold the same year for $52K, but I don't think we are going to see a 9.8 copy under six figures again. Great deal for the $52K buyer, but I don't think the first guy was necessarily wrong.

Yes, he most definitely was wrong because although his so-called purchase of the TMNT 1 for $90K was indeed able to push the market for this book up from the mid to high $30K price range that it had been stucked at and into the $50K+ price range, he in theory didn't do so well as he sold that exact same high profile $90K copy for only $59K in a very low profile non-auction sale a few short months later after the prices had consolidated into this $50K+ price range.     

My personal thinking though is that he probably still made out like a bandit by moving the entire early TMNT market upwards at the expense of simply paying for the Heritage auction fees.  

Edited March 28, 2021 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 3/27/2021 at 12:11 AM, Crowzilla said:

All this ^.

We've been raise to believe that rising SA makes GA look cheap, then when GA rises it circles back to SA, but the new reality is that there is a total disconnect and the markets no longer have anything to do with each other. I work with some younger attorneys who are starting to hit prime earning years (mid 30s+) that collect and these are the guys that think nothing of spending $10K on a Star Wars comic (no, not a 35¢ price variant, the 1st appearance of Ahsoka variant) and think that a first Miles Morales variant for $15K is a bargain they need to snap up today. They would buy SA, but there are literally only a handful of GA books they would even consider buying, and aside from a "27" none of those books has a number other than "1" on them. Superman 2? or even 14 or 17? nope. Action 7, or 10? no thanks. Why buy a nice late number Cap or Marvel Mystery for $2500 when you can get an Eternals #1 for the same price. She-Hulk #1 has doubled in the last six months, what has GA done?

And for another out of whack example, THE key 80s book. 3 weeks ago it was less than $20K, for a 9.6, now this copy is sitting at $50K . The 9.8 buyers are looking extra smart right now.

Turtles #1

So, are you saying that I made a big mistake by putting most of my GA and pedigree books into mylar holders, while keeping my cherry picked BA and CA books packed brick style into those old sticky yellowing poly bags for some 40 odd years?    

[october]

12 hours ago, Professor Chaos said:

I know a guy about who's been collecting sports cards for a few decades. He's really up on what's going on in that field, and he's always bidding in auctions. So I trust his knowledge.Plus his personality seems pretty straight up. 

So recently I said to him that if I was going to branch out into cards I would get the old stuff - Goudys, Tobacco cards, pre WWII stuff. Gehrigs,Ruths, Cobbs, and other great players of the day. His response was, "Nobody wants them". I was kind of shocked he said that. He said most people buying cards today are buying the new stuff. I hope, if this is true, that the same applies/will apply to comics as the competition for these scarce GA's is already strong enough. (to me anything under around 100 or even 200 blue labels is scarce). 

 

I wish that was true. The Goudey Ruth cards I am after have tripled in value in the last year. 

I suppose that's a tiny increase though, relatively speaking, when modern serial numbered cards are routinely topping $1M.

[october]

2 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

Bitcoin could lose half it's value or more and these kids would be fine, and the ones I know at least are still working their jobs so not sure a downturn will dissuade them other than as another buying opportunity.

We are wrong to blanket characterize them as not being "real collectors" (whatever that means). Who cares if they don't know and don't ever care to buy Centaurs. They grew up reading/watching X-men, Turtles, Batman, etc. and that is what they are going after. One of my friends just paid what to me is stupid money for a 9.8 GS X-men 1 (not the $69K stupid, but 3 weeks ago stupid). He has no interest in selling, because it's a book he's always wanted and now he has it. If the bottom falls out later this year or next, I imagine he will be happy that it will be cheaper for him to add a 9.8 Hulk 181 (or whatever) to his collection. I can't say that he's wrong - especially as regard to Centaurs. Look at the flagship book for Centaur, the Church A-Man #5. when Heritage sold it in 2002, the description stated "Seasoned collectors will recognize this copy as definite Blue Chip material", and it sold for more than $63K (3x guide+). The buyer held it for more than a decade, guided nearly doubled in that time and yet when he sold it in 2014 it only brought $56K. Hardly what I'd call blue chip for a 12 year investment. Has anyone ever lost money holding a high grade GS1 or IH 181 for 12 years? People here made a lot of fun of the buyer of the TMNT #1 for $90K when another copy later sold the same year for $52K, but I don't think we are going to see a 9.8 copy under six figures again. Great deal for the $52K buyer, but I don't think the first guy was necessarily wrong.

Amazing Man 5 isn't the most desirable Centaur. It's not even the most desirable issue from that title. The A-Man 22 Larson sold for $5,750 in 2003 and it's likely worth $100,000 now. 

And all due respect to Turtles 1 and GS X-Men 1 (both of which I own), but last time I checked they didn't have giant green monster Nazi gorillas on the cover, so this wins. 

Edited March 28, 2021 by october

[tth2]

7 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

Bitcoin could lose half it's value or more and these kids would be fine, and the ones I know at least are still working their jobs so not sure a downturn will dissuade them other than as another buying opportunity.

Sean, you're overlooking the psychological aspect.  Studies have shown over and over that people dislike losing money more than they like making money.  No one likes to lose money, even if they can afford the loss, and they like it even less when they feel like they got suckered. 

I still remember the loss I took on B&Ws back in the mid-80s.  Dollar-wise, it was peanuts, even in 1980s dollars, but the sting of being dumb enough to chase a "hot" market that in retrospect was being so obviously manipulated has steered me away from chasing trends ever since then. 

Similarly, in the early 90s, how many collectors, particularly new collectors, got driven out of the hobby because they got burned chasing Valiants, hologram/ foil cover variants from Marvel and whatever else Wizard was touting as "HOT!"?  The same thing was happening in sports cards.  I don't think the absolute dollar losses were ever that big, at least not on the comics side.  It was as much the disgust and embarrassment with being taken for a ride as the actual losses.

What followed the 90s implosion was as close to a correction as I've seen in this hobby, at least in the SA market (I was not in GA yet, except for Ducks).  In my opinion, the main things that pulled the hobby out of its slump was a combination of the rise of the internet and the arrival of certification, and we really haven't looked back since.  

In contrast, the money coming in now is significant, and I just don't believe that the fundamentals (primarily supply) can support the spikes in prices that we've seen this past year.  While you may know guys who are happy to revisit their youth and pay $100k for a 9.8 copy of TMNT 1, at some point supply will exceed demand at these price levels, because there is no genuine scarcity of these books in ultra-high grade, even books with relatively small print runs like TMNT 1 1st prints. 

This is particularly the case as I don't believe a lot of these guys coming in right now are in for the long haul.  What happens whey they decide to sell because they want to finance the purchase of a house, college for their kids, etc., and suddenly can't get anything close to what they paid?   I don't believe there is an inexhaustible line of collectors waiting to pay $100k for a 9.8 TMNT 1.  On the other hand, I do believe there will be a long line of bitter, disillusioned collectors who this time will have lost real money.     

[tth2]

7 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

I can't say that he's wrong - especially as regard to Centaurs. Look at the flagship book for Centaur, the Church A-Man #5. when Heritage sold it in 2002, the description stated "Seasoned collectors will recognize this copy as definite Blue Chip material", and it sold for more than $63K (3x guide+). The buyer held it for more than a decade, guided nearly doubled in that time and yet when he sold it in 2014 it only brought $56K. Hardly what I'd call blue chip for a 12 year investment.

You highlight an interesting dynamic about our hobby, which is that scarcity of supply is important but supply can't be so scarce that demand becomes almost non-existent because there are insufficient transactions to stoke interest/demand.  Centaurs are so niche I would argue that they could never really be considered to be blue chips.  Anyways, as shareholders of GE, Motorola and many other "blue chip" companies can tell you, being a blue chip is no guarantee of decent (or any) returns.

7 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

Has anyone ever lost money holding a high grade GS1 or IH 181 for 12 years? People here made a lot of fun of the buyer of the TMNT #1 for $90K when another copy later sold the same year for $52K, but I don't think we are going to see a 9.8 copy under six figures again. Great deal for the $52K buyer, but I don't think the first guy was necessarily wrong.

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”

-Irving Fisher, Oct 21, 1929

I hope we don't look at your quote in later years as our Irving Fisher moment.   

  

[MusterMark]

Another thing to perhaps consider is that the recent exceedingly sharp spike in SA/BA prices affects maybe about 10 to 20 books.  And if you look beyond those, there are maybe 50 to 100 books (including some Moderns too) that have risen strongly but not as sharply as the top ones.  And yes, many of the top ones are major key type books.  BUT, regardless, there are still tons and tons of books in SA/BA that are generally considered very desirable that have NOT seen sharp increases compared with the aforementioned 100.  The great majority of the books are simply humming along as they usually do.

[Readcomix]

19 hours ago, lou_fine said:

these new very deep pocketed sports cards and crypto investors 

And you’re assuming the only people moving into the hobby/marketplace is this uncaring, unthinking monolithic wall of newly wealthy. 

For that subset, I’d agree with your assessment, for the most part. Even then, there will be exceptions. But I suspect the new pool, so to speak, is more diverse than that and many will learn some things about the hobby over time. I’m more concerned they will reject long-held precious notions of ours about what is key/important and what is not. 
 

I suggest anyone around this hobby a long time politely, not condescendingly, teach some history as the opportunity presents, if you meet and/or transact books with these new unicorns. At that same time, I’d become prepared to accept the idea that while we may know in our heart of hearts that a first appearance requires an appearance in continuity, our little comic book world has changed and advertising flyers such as Marvel Previews 95 or Malibu Sun 13 may be here to stay as keys too, in the eyes of our newer members of the hobby.

[drbanner]

50 minutes ago, tth2 said:

You highlight an interesting dynamic about our hobby, which is that scarcity of supply is important but supply can't be so scarce that demand becomes almost non-existent because there are insufficient transactions to stoke interest/demand.

That's a great point, not sure these newbies will have the patience to wait around for a book that only becomes available a few times a year...instagram waits for no man! I also wonder how desirable GA books will be that have no connection to contemporary pop culture/movies/media to 20/30 years olds entering the hobby today. In the past, seasoned collectors would migrate from collecting books they bought off the stands to silver to gold so we'll have to see if this holds up in the coming years. I have my doubts.

[szav]

2 hours ago, Readcomix said:

And you’re assuming the only people moving into the hobby/marketplace is this uncaring, unthinking monolithic wall of newly wealthy. 

I dunno, it could be an unthinking, uncaring monolithic wall of well funded corporate entities selling a few books back and forth to each other at inflated rates in order to establish a new higher price point for everything.  It looks like a classic pump and dump.

The nice thing about manipulating the SA market right now is that you wouldn't even have to do it with more than a few books to pull up prices on everything because the relative values of all the keys to each other has long been established.  Run up the price on GSX-1 and IH 181 will follow on its own because its already historically established that IH 181 is a more valuable book.  Push up X-men 1 in lower grades and the higher grades will follow suit.  The market is primed for speculation at a point in time where there seem to be more people with money that they don't know what to do with than ever before.  

 

[Readcomix]

Could is the key word, Scott. And I think it’s at least an element, but not all of it. Individuals are reacting in various ways to an unprecedented market, and I’m simply saying I think it is wise to consider a mixed bag of various forces and thoughts may be at work. As Bruce Lee put it, “If nothing within you remains rigid, outward things will disclose themselves.” 
I’m just keeping an open mind in this crazy market, even though I see a lot of the same things everyone else is citing too.

[Readcomix]

Added thought: we focus a lot on the relative scarcity of older keys versus newer, but neither Action 1 nor NM 98 is still being printed. Though there are many, many more NM 98, both exist in finite numbers. On the other side of the equation, new money is being printed at an increasing rate. There’s enough upward pressure to go around in this environment.

[szav]

11 minutes ago, Readcomix said:

consider a mixed bag of various forces and thoughts may be at work

For sure, but I still see speculation as the driving force vs people just love these books that much more right now, and with speculation and higher dollar amounts I think collusion and outright manipulation becomes a bigger possibility.  I guess as far as it effects GA long term, if what we're seeing is an artificial rise in the SA market, then I wouldn't expect it to spill over to GA as much, because GA I don't think would be as easy or profitable to manipulate.  However if what we're seeing is actually genuinely collector and interest driven, then I think that would bode well for GA as eventually some of this new money would find its way on over.

[Paul © ® ⚽️💙™]

19 hours ago, Mr.Fantastic said:

If it's any indication of how GA comics are perceived. I heard a grumpy guy looking through comics at the antique market today.  As I walked by I heard him say "None of these Sum itches is old or worth a ".  So there you have it.  Random grumpy guy at the antique market says old comics good, new comics bad. LOL.

You sure it wasn't Chuck looking for the next Church windfall?

[Mr.Fantastic]

1 hour ago, G G ® ™ said:

You sure it wasn't Chuck looking for the next Church windfall?

If Chuck was looking for Church copies at an antique market in the middle of West Tennessee, then I applaud his persistence and perseverance. 

[Professor K]

7 hours ago, Readcomix said:

And you’re assuming the only people moving into the hobby/marketplace is this uncaring, unthinking monolithic wall of newly wealthy. 

For that subset, I’d agree with your assessment, for the most part. Even then, there will be exceptions. But I suspect the new pool, so to speak, is more diverse than that and many will learn some things about the hobby over time. I’m more concerned they will reject long-held precious notions of ours about what is key/important and what is not. 
 

I suggest anyone around this hobby a long time politely, not condescendingly, teach some history as the opportunity presents, if you meet and/or transact books with these new unicorns. At that same time, I’d become prepared to accept the idea that while we may know in our heart of hearts that a first appearance requires an appearance in continuity, our little comic book world has changed and advertising flyers such as Marvel Previews 95 or Malibu Sun 13 may be here to stay as keys too, in the eyes of our newer members of the hobby.

Hi Readcomix, Not sure if lou_ meant they are the ONLY people. Speaking for myself I do believe it very well may be investors who are/have driving/driven the prices up so much. Not uncaring, they care about money, sweet sweet money. And not unthinking, they think about money. 

Its just a theory but I believe a very possible theory that the spike could have been initiated by a small group of people. I personally believe the world is controlled by a very small group of people so why not this? (I ask myself).

Lets say a group of rich friends in silicon valley (for example) decided to bid up and buy all the key Silver/Bronze/Copper books,mainly but not only the key issues, that came to auction on the 3 big auction sites. That would not be hard to do. They can bid each other up and still get the book. Now they have the books and they drove the prices up. Now they have set the bar and everyone will follow that bar and continuously raise it. Kind of like sneezing really loud and creating an avalanche, all it took was being in the right place at the right time and a pinch of black pepper (black pepper is a metaphor for money, sweet sweet money). 

Edited March 28, 2021 by Professor Chaos
spelling agian