In light of the SA price explosion, is GA the place to put new funds instead? 5 5

[Readcomix]

58 minutes ago, Professor Chaos said:

Hi Readcomix, Not sure if lou_ meant they are the ONLY people. Speaking for myself I do believe it very well may be investors who are/have driving/driven the prices up so much. Not uncaring, they care about money, sweet sweet money. And not unthinking, they think about money. 

Its just a theory but I believe a very possible theory that the spike could have been initiated by a small group of people. I personally believe the world is controlled by a very small group of people so why not this? (I ask myself).

Lets say a group of rich friends in silicon valley (for example) decided to bid up and buy all the key Silver/Bronze/Copper books,mainly but not only the key issues, that came to auction on the 3 big auction sites. That would not be hard to do. They can bid each other up and still get the book. Now they have the books and they drove the prices up. Now they have set the bar and everyone will follow that bar and continuously raise it. Kind of like sneezing really loud and creating an avalanche, all it took was being in the right place at the right time and a pinch of black pepper (black pepper is a metaphor for money, sweet sweet money). 

I agree that that is possible and likely at least part of the mix. But I'm open to the idea that other organic behaviors are part of it too. 

Not sure what Lou meant or why I  needed a beating on the head, but it read like he was only open to the one possibility, I thought. 

And I agree with your big picture line of thinking as well. 

[Professor K]

2 hours ago, Readcomix said:

I agree that that is possible and likely at least part of the mix. But I'm open to the idea that other organic behaviors are part of it too. 

Not sure what Lou meant or why I  needed a beating on the head, but it read like he was only open to the one possibility, I thought. 

And I agree with your big picture line of thinking as well. 

Oh good. I should have said it in my post regarding other organic factors. Quanity. The quantity of collectors has increased, and with those we get people who are willing to bid up a book because they have to have it now instead of waiting for the next one to show up in a few days.

Funny because what that has caused is that if you do wait a few days for the next one to show up you'll most likely have to pay a good amount more for it. And sure there are other factors. I still think although I can't prove it is that a group of people that got the ball rolling. Imagine if it was just one wealthy person bidding on everything in sight who created this thing. Ok I'm done talking about it..........I hope. 

[tth2]

10 hours ago, drbanner said:

11 hours ago, tth2 said:

You highlight an interesting dynamic about our hobby, which is that scarcity of supply is important but supply can't be so scarce that demand becomes almost non-existent because there are insufficient transactions to stoke interest/demand.

That's a great point, not sure these newbies will have the patience to wait around for a book that only becomes available a few times a year...instagram waits for no man! I also wonder how desirable GA books will be that have no connection to contemporary pop culture/movies/media to 20/30 years olds entering the hobby today. In the past, seasoned collectors would migrate from collecting books they bought off the stands to silver to gold so we'll have to see if this holds up in the coming years. I have my doubts.

I think we'll go through a typical filtering exercise in which many of the new collectors coming in will fall by the wayside, whether because of waning interest or bitterness/disillusionment, but a few will stick around because their newfound interest is permanent.  Of those, a small percentage will move into GA after they get bored of BA/SA.

We've seen it multiple times during the CGC era, where someone with newfound wealth comes back into the hobby after a long absence and quickly assembles an ultra-HG Marvel run (99% of the time, it's Spider-Man).  Some then leave as quickly as they came, some stick around but don't maintain their passion, some continue to work on their collections, and a few become hardcore, knowledgeable collectors. 

[adamstrange]

4 minutes ago, tth2 said:

and a few become hardcore, knowledgeable collectors. 

These are dangerous ones. They must be identified and stopped before they reach this stage! 

[Funnybooks]

2 minutes ago, adamstrange said:

These are dangerous ones. They must be identified and stopped before they reach this stage! 

Trip them

[lou_fine]

12 hours ago, tth2 said:

I still remember the loss I took on B&Ws back in the mid-80s.  Dollar-wise, it was peanuts, even in 1980s dollars, but the sting of being dumb enough to chase a "hot" market that in retrospect was being so obviously manipulated has steered me away from chasing trends ever since then. 

Tim;

OMG, say this isn't so when it came to you!!!      

 

12 hours ago, tth2 said:

This is particularly the case as I don't believe a lot of these guys coming in right now are in for the long haul.  What happens whey they decide to sell because they want to finance the purchase of a house, college for their kids, etc., and suddenly can't get anything close to what they paid?   

Although these 2 guys didn't need to finance the purchase of a house or anything like that, I guess you would be referring to possible 2021/22 versions of 2 unforgettable deep pocketed past collectors like Jay Parrino and Gary Keller who stopped by long enough for a cup of coffee and left the hobby hundreds of thousands of dollars lighter in their pocketbook shortly after.  .

Edited March 29, 2021 by lou_fine

[Readcomix]

1 hour ago, Professor Chaos said:

Oh good. I should have said it in my post regarding other organic factors. Quanity. The quantity of collectors has increased, and with those we get people who are willing to bid up a book because they have to have it now instead of waiting for the next one to show up in a few days.

Funny because what that has caused is that if you do wait a few days for the next one to show up you'll most likely have to pay a good amount more for it. And sure there are other factors. I still think although I can't prove it is that a group of people that got the ball rolling. Imagine if it was just one wealthy person bidding on everything in sight who created this thing. Ok I'm done talking about it..........I hope. 

You mean like a Hunt Brothers kind of situation?

[Professor K]

1 hour ago, Readcomix said:

You mean like a Hunt Brothers kind of situation?

Yes kind of. Very similar. But I believe the Hunts had to actually obtain a good portion of the worlds private supply of silver. In this case, if my theory is anywhere near correct, all they had to do was pay a very high price for a number of key books to create a sort of buying frenzy that naturally would propel prices continuosly upwards. All theory of course. 

I have thought of that scenario before. If I was filthy rich I'd buy every say AF 15 or something of more limited supply like every Tec 38, or even every pre robin Tec that comes to market in any grade no matter the price. That would cause the price to rise and influence other owners of the book to cash in and sells theirs......which I would then buy. In a few years I would own a good portion of the worlds supply of that/those books and I would have driven the price/s up due to my insane bidding, which is fine because I'd own most of them. I'm sure there is a term for this in the financial industry. 

Edited March 29, 2021 by Professor Chaos

[Readcomix]

1 minute ago, Professor Chaos said:

Yes kind of. But I believe the Hunts had to actually obtain a good portion of the worlds private supply of silver. In this case, if my theory is anywhere near correct, all they had to do was pay a very high price for a number of key books to create a sort of buying frenzy that naturally would propel prices continuosly upwards. All theory of course. 

I have thought of that scenario before. If I was filthy rich I'd buy every say AF 15 or something of more limited supply like every Tec 38, or even every pre robin Tec that comes to market in any grade no matter the price. That would cause the price to rise and influence other owners of the book to cash in and sells theirs......which I would then buy. In a few years I would own a good portion of the worlds supply of that/those books and I would have driven the price/s up due to my insane bidding, which is fine because I'd own most of them. I'm sure there is a term for this in the financial industry. 

I think Metro has run that latter play with certain books that don’t come up much. Maybe others too. Got no proof, just a hunch. 

[Larryw7]

20 minutes ago, Readcomix said:

I think Metro has run that latter play with certain books that don’t come up much. Maybe others too. Got no proof, just a hunch. 

Metro did this with the DC Movie Comics 1 in the nineties. It didn't seem to work, as Movie Comics(with the exception of 6 with the Lugosi Robot cover) don't seem to be in very high demand.

[Readcomix]

3 minutes ago, Larryw7 said:

Metro did this with the DC Movie Comics 1 in the nineties. It didn't seem to work, as Movie Comics(with the exception of 6 with the Lugosi Robot cover) don't seem to be in very high demand.

I thought there was some apocrypha out there; thank you, couldn’t remember the details, just the buzz.

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Professor Chaos said:

I'm sure there is a term for this in the financial industry. 

I believe the term is referred to as Impending Bankruptcy.       

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Larryw7 said:

2 hours ago, Readcomix said:

I think Metro has run that latter play with certain books that don’t come up much. Maybe others too. Got no proof, just a hunch. 

Metro did this with the DC Movie Comics 1 in the nineties. It didn't seem to work, as Movie Comics(with the exception of 6 with the Lugosi Robot cover) don't seem to be in very high demand.

Well, I guess the one that probably worked out a lot better for them was Fantastic Comics 3 which was clearly Fishler's favorite back in the day.  

[DarthVegas]

I am new to comics, but not to collecting. I have been collecting cards for 40+ years, and slabbed examples for the past 20+ ... key players and issues have been steadily rising for over a year and have exploded in recent months. Some will say, as an example, the Goudey Ruth cards are "finally" being noticed. They were always pricey, but there are a few who were surprised they weren't going for more. It is Babe Ruth after all, so who knows. Not sure which comic book hero/star/character would be considered the "Ruth" of comics, but have my guesses. 
Yes, there are some crazy prices on ultra modern cards, namely basketball players, and modern cards are the bubble imo. Some of these collectors are going after the Griffey, Jordan, Gretzky, Garbage Pail Kids, etc. that they grew up with. Now in their 40s, they may have some money to throw at the issues and grades that eluded them. Maybe they also remember wanting a nice Hank Aaron, Wilt or Bobby Orr as well, and those become more in demand. There are others who say that certain collectibles are finally being justified as legit investments like stocks, gold, bonds, etc. 
I agree with all of it. There is a bubble, and most of this will pop. Not sure when and there will be a certain select number of players or comics that will make it. Just my .02 .... 

 

[tth2]

13 hours ago, lou_fine said:

On 3/28/2021 at 9:03 PM, tth2 said:

I still remember the loss I took on B&Ws back in the mid-80s.  Dollar-wise, it was peanuts, even in 1980s dollars, but the sting of being dumb enough to chase a "hot" market that in retrospect was being so obviously manipulated has steered me away from chasing trends ever since then. 

Tim;

OMG, say this isn't so when it came to you!!!      

Fish Police, Troll Lords, The Adventurers, Radioactive Hamsters, etc. etc., I had them all! 

I justified it at the time because I loved the Turtles, actually liked Fish Police and Troll Lords, and really liked some of the stuff coming out of the indies (American Flagg, Elementals, Groo, and other titles I can't even remember anymore).  

[tth2]

13 hours ago, lou_fine said:

On 3/28/2021 at 9:03 PM, tth2 said:

This is particularly the case as I don't believe a lot of these guys coming in right now are in for the long haul.  What happens whey they decide to sell because they want to finance the purchase of a house, college for their kids, etc., and suddenly can't get anything close to what they paid?   

Although these 2 guys didn't need to finance the purchase of a house or anything like that, I guess you would be referring to possible 2021/22 versions of 2 unforgettable deep pocketed past collectors like Jay Parrino and Gary Keller who stopped by long enough for a cup of coffee and left the hobby hundreds of thousands of dollars lighter in their pocketbook shortly after.  .

No, more like the various collectors who've popped up from time to time seemingly out of nowhere with ultra-HG Spidey runs that they were able to assemble in what seemed like weeks.  

[Funnybooks]

20 minutes ago, tth2 said:

No, more like the various collectors who've popped up from time to time seemingly out of nowhere with ultra-HG Spidey runs that they were able to assemble in what seemed like weeks.  

100%...if you have the money to spend, assembling any high grade SA run is just a matter of how long you want to wait to accomplish the feat?..boredom sets in and it's onto the next conquest...GA

GA is more nuanced and yes, you can assemble a run however, good luck assembling it in high grade ...

[buttock]

On 3/27/2021 at 11:23 PM, Crowzilla said:

Bitcoin could lose half it's value or more and these kids would be fine, and the ones I know at least are still working their jobs so not sure a downturn will dissuade them other than as another buying opportunity.

We are wrong to blanket characterize them as not being "real collectors" (whatever that means). Who cares if they don't know and don't ever care to buy Centaurs. They grew up reading/watching X-men, Turtles, Batman, etc. and that is what they are going after. One of my friends just paid what to me is stupid money for a 9.8 GS X-men 1 (not the $69K stupid, but 3 weeks ago stupid). He has no interest in selling, because it's a book he's always wanted and now he has it. If the bottom falls out later this year or next, I imagine he will be happy that it will be cheaper for him to add a 9.8 Hulk 181 (or whatever) to his collection. I can't say that he's wrong - especially as regard to Centaurs. Look at the flagship book for Centaur, the Church A-Man #5. when Heritage sold it in 2002, the description stated "Seasoned collectors will recognize this copy as definite Blue Chip material", and it sold for more than $63K (3x guide+). The buyer held it for more than a decade, guided nearly doubled in that time and yet when he sold it in 2014 it only brought $56K. Hardly what I'd call blue chip for a 12 year investment. Has anyone ever lost money holding a high grade GS1 or IH 181 for 12 years? People here made a lot of fun of the buyer of the TMNT #1 for $90K when another copy later sold the same year for $52K, but I don't think we are going to see a 9.8 copy under six figures again. Great deal for the $52K buyer, but I don't think the first guy was necessarily wrong.

This is a good example of an item finding its max value.  It's flawed to think that all comics are the same and all comics have an infinite growth potential.  The Church AMan 5 is going to hold its value around what it is.  It will go up and down maybe 10-15% depending on the conditions of the particular auction, but it's probably always going to have that same relative value, adjusting for inflation.  Why?  It's already reached its potential.  There's nobody making more AMan books and definitely not making a movie.  So its value is going to be what it's already established at among the collectors' market.  This is true of a lot of the older stuff.  The prices are driven by collectors, not investors, and long-term collectors, not new blood.  Over time some of the new blood will trickle back to GA and one of them will be dumb enough to buy this book again at its value, but they'll really like owning it for what it is.  But nobody is entering the market to get this book.  And all the new blood entering the market is what drives up the prices on that stuff through competition.    

[rtsunlimited]

Some good points in this thread!

Something I've been wondering about for a long time: 
Can someone please explain to me why ASM 300 is now a $1,000 book?
Didn't this have a print run of 1 million+?
Seems every auction has at least one copy of this book in 9.0+
Who is buying this? Ae there people hoarding it?
This book in particular just boggles my mind! 

[adamstrange]

1 hour ago, tth2 said:

No, more like the various collectors who've popped up from time to time seemingly out of nowhere with ultra-HG Spidey runs that they were able to assemble in what seemed like weeks.  

A number of years ago, GAtor contemplated putting together a run of Spidey's in 9.0.  He stopped before he started because all it took was a couple hours of phone calls.