Buyers: What is your plan for the current insanity? 3 3

[the blob]

Oh I think they're cool, but I am almost 50. I don't know if geriatrics like me are pushing this stuff. With that said, most folks hear coins and think of these hucksters on TV who make the comic guys we sneer at for being shady look like paragons of virtue.

Edited April 26, 2021 by the blob

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

10 hours ago, the blob said:

Oh I think they're cool, but I am almost 50. I don't know if geriatrics like me are pushing this stuff. With that said, most folks hear coins and think of these hucksters on TV who make the comic guys we sneer at for being shady look like paragons of virtue.

"You can own this Quarter, yes this fabulous Quarter, rare, rare, it is the only one I currently have with me, for only four, yes, I said four, easy payments of $25 plus another $25, for a total giveaway price of $200. Yes, I said $200! Don't make me say it again or I may possibly think of perhaps maybe it could happen ... Send cash payment, only cash, for $200, must be $200, to Two-hundred Dollar Fabulous Quarter, Usuker Avenue, "Carney," NE, 68846." 

[the blob]

2 hours ago, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

"You can own this Quarter, yes this fabulous Quarter, rare, rare, it is the only one I currently have with me, for only four, yes, I said four, easy payments of $25 plus another $25, for a total giveaway price of $200. Yes, I said $200! Don't make me say it again or I may possibly think of perhaps maybe it could happen ... Send cash payment, only cash, for $200, must be $200, to Two-hundred Dollar Fabulous Quarter, Usuker Avenue, "Carney," NE, 68846." 

well, I am thinking of the guys on the shopping channels with the coin shows touting their coins as being super duper great and you can re-sell them for so much more..... if you have guys on TV selling the stuff for $50, $50 kind of becomes the ceiling for anything though...the same guys also did sports cards ... almost never dabbled in comics thankfully

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

1 minute ago, the blob said:

well, I am thinking of the guys on the shopping channels with the coin shows touting their coins as being super duper great and you can re-sell them for so much more..... if you have guys on TV selling the stuff for $50, $50 kind of becomes the ceiling for anything though...the same guys also did sports cards ... almost never dabbled in comics thankfully

I thought about those individuals in commercials that one occasionally views on television peddling "rare" freshly minted silver- and/or gold thinly-plated coins as "investments" for four simple payments of, for example, $50 for a coin worth $5, if that, that will be worth that, perhaps less, for as long as currency exists. 

[alexgross.com]

16 hours ago, the blob said:

Coins are boring. Like stamps. Comics are cool. Coins are for 70 year olds.

 

having attended many coin shows until a few years ago, i can attest to the truth of this. more like "over 50 year old men." and like @1950's war comics i also think currency is beautiful to look at and collect, and i have some. but from an investing angle, absolutely no contest.

[the blob]

50 minutes ago, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

I thought about those individuals in commercials that one occasionally views on television peddling "rare" freshly minted silver- and/or gold thinly-plated coins as "investments" for four simple payments of, for example, $50 for a coin worth $5, if that, that will be worth that, perhaps less, for as long as currency exists. 

not talking about franklin mint type guys, i am talking about guys selling rolls of morgan dollars, claiming they must all be super high grade, pointing to some website to claim they're worth $500 each, but they will wholesale them to you for $300 each in quantity (I'm making up numbers, i have no idea what morgan dollars go for and it will depend on the year)

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

1 hour ago, the blob said:

not talking about franklin mint type guys, i am talking about guys selling rolls of morgan dollars, claiming they must all be super high grade, pointing to some website to claim they're worth $500 each, but they will wholesale them to you for $300 each in quantity (I'm making up numbers, i have no idea what morgan dollars go for and it will depend on the year)

We are, to some extent at least, describing the same huksters but in different contexts. Regardless, one knows (hopefully, most know) not to purchase what they are selling (to not describe it in a less generous way).

[zosocane]

18 hours ago, the blob said:

Coins are boring. Like stamps. Comics are cool. Coins are for 70 year olds.

 

I was at a comic show 2 weekends ago (South Carolina Comic Con), and two things i noticed right away at this very busy two-day show:  (1) the dealer tables were flocked, I mean jammed up, with buyers (the thinking seemed to be "Marvel SA and BA mega keys are priced up?  Fine, show me the lower priced stuff, I want it"); and (2) younger buyers than what I've seen in years past, many guys in their 20s and 30s, and not just focused on Moderns but on Bronze, Silver.  I don't see the hobby slowing down any time soon.  Funny books are just too cool to pass up.

Edited April 26, 2021 by zosocane

[Bluemedgroup]

22 hours ago, ExNihilo said:

It's a culmination of assumptions for me.  To start the median income is something like $52k a year.  According to this, nearly 1/3 of Americans have less than $5k in a retirement account.  It goes on to say that the median amount saved for retirement is $12,300 for <35 and $37k for 35-44.  This might be a regional bias coming from a HCOL area, but those retirement figures sound woefully low and I interpret it as someone who doesn't have the means or willpower to save, or someone who doesn't have the knowledge/understanding of how to save.  If you don't have the ability to save, the value of a dollar probably means more to you than someone raking in six figures a year.  And as such, you're less inclined to shop for a five figure book in a market you know absolutely nothing about.  Your larger concern is probably food, bills, and other essentials that are needed immediately.  I don't think a person pulls their entire retirement account of $37k only to turn around and buy a $20k book, and then have to figure out how to pay it back over 3 years.  Those types of people generally aren't able to save much to begin with.

Now, I suppose you could argue that $200-$500 books are now being sold for $1k-$2k, but the original post I responded to was referencing sub $10k books now selling for sub $20k.  It could be a case of "a rising tide lifts all ships" and that the tide began with "lower" value books, but I still don't think it's the average person who's buying into high end keys.  I still maintain the personal belief that the increase in prices is due to people having extra income that would otherwise be spent on vacations or entertainment expenses and that we'll see the comic market come back down once travel becomes a thing again.

Let's be honest, does anyone believe some of these books will be able to hold value?  I was looking at my Captain America #25 (first Sam Wilson as Captain America) this weekend and it's selling for about $100 on eBay.  I found the book in the $0.25 bin exactly two years ago.  Same with All New Captain America #1 (first Sam Wilson as Captain America on cover).  It's selling for about $50.  I found that in the $0.25 bin as well.  Do we really think those books will have the same value 10, 20, 30 years from now?  These prices for otherwise low value keys are propped by TV/Movies and will drop when enough time has passed.  Just look at Iron Man 55.  A hot book leading up to Infinity War, but who's prices have stagnated (relative to other old school keys) since then.  If that's what's happening to a book like Iron Man 55, what's going to happen to some modern key like X-Men 4 which was produced in the millions?

Captain America 25 will be a $1k book soon, believe it or not.  

'Captain America 4' Movie in the Works With 'Falcon and the Winter Soldier' Showrunner (Exclusive) | Hollywood Reporter

As with all books, some get hot and some get cold.  Before movie hot, after movie cold.   

[G.A.tor]

21 hours ago, Legion of Goom said:

My two cents is there's additional buying pressure coming from the top end of the market, in no small part due to asset reallocation (multiple drivers there-inflation hedge, strong historical returns of key issues, etc)

 

If a miniscule fraction of that made its way into comics- even just $5 million- it could not be invested without moving the markets materially.

 

my guess is $5mil over weeks or months, wouldn't even be a blip on the market...100Mil would have some material movement impact if injected over a short period of time...I know of many dealers that have sold 7 figures of comics in just the last few weeks/months...

we are in a hyperinflation covid bubble...but its relatively unprecedented (not even the housing bubble of 2000's is a fair comparison)...will be interesting to see how it shakes out, but rest assured, at some point, all markets will reach equilibrium, including the comic market...

Edited April 26, 2021 by G.A.tor

[NewWorldOrder]

30 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

my guess is $5mil over weeks or months, wouldn't even be a blip on the market...100Mil would have some material movement impact if injected over a short period of time...I know of many dealers that have sold 7 figures of comics in just the last few weeks/months...

we are in a hyperinflation covid bubble...but its relatively unprecedented (not even the housing bubble of 2000's is a fair comparison)...will be interesting to see how it shakes out, but rest assured, at some point, all markets will reach equilibrium, including the comic market...

All you need now is one GPA sale to move the market.

Someone sees a ASM #3 CGC in 5.0 sell for $5300 then a new seller now wants more money for their CGC 5.5  that sold prior for $4800.   You dont need much anymore to drive up pricing, especially now with eBay even easier ways to manipulate the comic market  you have fake GPA sales galore.  (talking about eBay now doesnt charge the seller FVF till after the buyer pays)

[the blob]

 

1 hour ago, G.A.tor said:

my guess is $5mil over weeks or months, wouldn't even be a blip on the market...100Mil would have some material movement impact if injected over a short period of time...I know of many dealers that have sold 7 figures of comics in just the last few weeks/months...

we are in a hyperinflation covid bubble...but its relatively unprecedented (not even the housing bubble of 2000's is a fair comparison)...will be interesting to see how it shakes out, but rest assured, at some point, all markets will reach equilibrium, including the comic market...

I just paid 69 cents pound for Perdue chicken legs. And that is in New York CIty. Not everything is in hyperinflation. 

[piper]

3 hours ago, NewWorldOrder said:

All you need now is one GPA sale to move the market.

Someone sees a ASM #3 CGC in 5.0 sell for $5300 then a new seller now wants more money for their CGC 5.5  that sold prior for $4800.   You dont need much anymore to drive up pricing, especially now with eBay even easier ways to manipulate the comic market  you have fake GPA sales galore.  (talking about eBay now doesnt charge the seller FVF till after the buyer pays)

Definitely easy to manipulate the market now....

[Legion of Goom]

4 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

my guess is $5mil over weeks or months, wouldn't even be a blip on the market...100Mil would have some material movement impact if injected over a short period of time...I know of many dealers that have sold 7 figures of comics in just the last few weeks/months...

we are in a hyperinflation covid bubble...but its relatively unprecedented (not even the housing bubble of 2000's is a fair comparison)...will be interesting to see how it shakes out, but rest assured, at some point, all markets will reach equilibrium, including the comic market...

All depends on the timing, targets, and intent as to the level of impact. You could easily manipulate the markets of some high-visibility keys for less, or dilute your impact over time if going by your approach of well timed, well diversified choices.

Ultimately,  the exact absolute dollar figure necessary matters less than that the number needed is only a tiny fraction of what's on the sidelines ready to invest/speculate. I don't know exactly what that magic number is, but it has found its way into the hobby on the high end to go along with more cash inflows on the entry levels, too (for reasons others have already discussed). 

It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out, as I have no idea what the ending will look like. You're spot on regarding equilibrium point, but I don't know what that new equilibrium is- as much as we talk about "comics" as a while, it'd really be unique for each title. 

Grab the popcorn and we'll see how it goes! 👍

[Domo Arigato]

Recently, every single raw and slabbed copy of Fantasy Quarterly #1 (first Elfquest) has been scooped up on eBay....with prices increasing quickly.

Last sale for a CGC 9.8 copy was in March for $1,300........(2020 average was $749).

Last sale for a CGC 9.6 copy was also in March for $1,020..........(2020 average was $284).

Last sale for a CGC 9.4 was in April for $640..........(2020 average was $201).

And last sale for a CGC 9.2 was in March for $400.........(2020 average was $172).

Craziest raw sale I found was for a 6.0 sold on eBay by MyComicShop in February for $345.

 

[Vince G]

14 minutes ago, Domo Arigato said:

Recently, every single raw and slabbed copy of Fantasy Quarterly #1 (first Elfquest) has been scooped up on eBay....with prices increasing quickly.

Last sale for a CGC 9.8 copy was in March for $1,300........(2020 average was $749).

Last sale for a CGC 9.6 copy was also in March for $1,020..........(2020 average was $284).

Last sale for a CGC 9.4 was in April for $640..........(2020 average was $201).

And last sale for a CGC 9.2 was in March for $400.........(2020 average was $172).

Craziest raw sale I found was for a 6.0 sold on eBay by MyComicShop in February for $345.

 

Wow!  You know, that book was dead for the longest time.  insufficiently_thoughtful_person me spent $50 for a copy of that book during the indie craze of the mid-80s, and it wasn't worth more than $50 until what, two months ago??

[DavidTheDavid]

I would rather see the Blob's taint than lay eyes on that awful Elfquest art.

[PKJ]

What is funny is I made joke in the What would you do if you had 100K thread in late January, I was half joking but really thought that if the generation that grew up loving GXSM1  were driving up most of the pricing they would also want this book, which is not all that easy to come by any way. I actually bid strong on each copy on CL since then to see them sell for crazy prices in regards to recent past sales.

 

[Domo Arigato]

4 minutes ago, Vince G said:

Wow!  You know, that book was dead for the longest time.  insufficiently_thoughtful_person me spent $50 for a copy of that book during the indie craze of the mid-80s, and it wasn't worth more than $50 until what, two months ago??

Obviously depends on the grade.  

For example......CGC 9.4 copies, according to GPA, have been worth roughly $50-$150 from 2003 until about 2018.  Then they rose some during the 2019-2020 time period......and took a drastic jump this year.  Luckily I got my CGC 9.4 copy years ago because I enjoyed reading the graphic novels when they first came out.  Here's what the GPA price graph looks like for CGC 9.4 copies over time.

[BanjerD]

10 minutes ago, DavidTheDavid said:

I would rather see the Blob's taint than lay eyes on that awful Elfquest art.

Are you saying the art looks awful on that newsprint issue of Fantasy Quarterly? Or... are you suggesting that art of Elfquest is bad?