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Do you expect prices to keep rising or stay at their increased values for a while? To buy now or not to buy?
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46 posts in this topic

2 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

Enough with the tired “doom-and gloomers” comments.  I don’t think the market will crash.  

10 hours ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

I think those that are convinced that these prices are the new normal & will continue to rise forever....are in for a rude awakening in the not-so-distant future. 

 

You've been in every thread talking about a crash.  But I'm glad you don't think it will crash.  I guess by "rude awakening" you meant "typical price fluctuations."  Then we agree!  Hallelujah.

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I for one are done with comics and will be selling off as many as possible. I have many signed by people in the industry but the way CGC has graded mine with "marked on front cover" bs, and lowering the grade because of it. This and the fact that newer comics are going woke will mean that the market will crash and only a select few will rise to the top. 

No more comics for me, cgc was the last nail

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Just now, Poekaymon said:

You've been in every thread talking about a crash.  But I'm glad you don't think it will crash.  I guess by "rude awakening" you meant "typical price fluctuations."  Then we agree!  Hallelujah.

There’s no such thing as “typical price fluctuations” in a market that is anything but typical.  

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1 hour ago, Poekaymon said:

Some price fluctuation is totally normal, but it is also a fallacy that just because prices are higher than they used to be that they must crash.  Similarly, a lot of people thought the stock market was high and on the verge of a bubble at 20k.  Then at 25k they really thought so.  Then at 30k they thought so even more.  Well, now we're at 33.5k and those doom-and-gloomers have been on the sidelines since 20k--now what?  Keep calling for a crash, I guess!  This has some appeal--history shows that eventually you'll be right.  But that's cold comfort when you missed out on all the gains along the way.  

Time in the market is better than timing the market.  Guess it applies to key comics too.  (shrug)

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1 minute ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

There’s no such thing as “typical price fluctuations” in a market that is anything but typical.  

I might have to put you on ignore again.  You just said you think the market will go down, but it won't crash.  These are your words.  

You know what it means when the market goes down but doesn't crash?  A typical price fluctuation.

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Just now, Poekaymon said:

I might have to put you on ignore again.  You just said you think the market will go down, but it won't crash.  These are your words.  

You know what it means when the market goes down but doesn't crash?  A typical price fluctuation.

The ignore function is your friend.  :hi:

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7 minutes ago, Stephen M Cordova said:

I for one are done with comics and will be selling off as many as possible. I have many signed by people in the industry but the way CGC has graded mine with "marked on front cover" bs, and lowering the grade because of it. This and the fact that newer comics are going woke will mean that the market will crash and only a select few will rise to the top. 

No more comics for me, cgc was the last nail

Your first post on a comic board was to say you're done with comics?  Are you Beyonder's alt? :bigsmile:

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23 hours ago, Rip said:

A lot of these prices are going way up because of the new money moving into the market from sports and non-sports cards. But I would be very careful when you look at the very recent history of many of these collectibles that went crazy as investors move from one collectible into the next mkt. with little nostalgia tied to the object.

Many key sports cards like M. Jordan or top non-sports cards like Luke Skywalker, Shadowless Charizard, etc have had drastic drops in value. Numerous non-sport unopened wax boxes like Marvel Universe and Star Wars 1977 blue have seen prices cut in half or more in the last month. Prices haven't fallen to pre-covid levels, but if you bought some of the top cards in these hobbies at top peak insanity in Feb, you lost big time. Some of these cards and boxes have quick drops in the 10's and hundreds of thousands of dollars.

I see no reason why not to suspect it will happen with some comics like X-Men 1, or ASM 300, or Hulk 181 next. 

As for Golden age Caps, I haven't seen any of the sports card insanity moving into that area quickly and massively jacking up prices. So I don't necessarily see a big drop either

You're absolutely right about the cards, but boy, was that a fun couple of weeks!  .

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It is funny to see the board reactions to these threads when they pop up every year or so. We have seen numerous price gap ups since the start of these boards, and the pattern has always been the same for the established keys/hot covers - run up, plateau/small correction for a while, then run up again as cycle repeats itself. And, there is a pattern as to which books move first and which follow later (as well as publishers) - the top books in any age move first, then the rest follow typically in order of importance. Movies/TV have distorted this a bit, but titles like the X-Men and FF were no brainer spec plays a couple of years ago when the Fox deal went through (I just wish I had not started selling when it was only a 2-3x return last year :cry:).

For the hot flavor of the month books, it is run up, short peak, then large pull back to a much lower level, but one that is higher than where it started (e.g. Marvel Super-Heroes 13). Get in, get out, and deploy the $$$ elsewhere.

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On 4/8/2021 at 7:40 AM, BlowUpTheMoon said:

I think X-Men #1 has undergone a market correction and will retain the prices we are seeing now.  

Last time I checked there were 5,300 universal copies in the Census.   That's a very low supply compared to the ultra high demand. 

It'll be interesting to see how much the census increases as people rush to get their X-Men #1s graded to meet this ultra-high demand...I wonder what the numbers will look like in 6 months to a year?

Any increase in the census still may not be enough to meet demand, but it might contribute to some price stability.

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56 minutes ago, silverseeker said:
On 4/8/2021 at 9:40 AM, BlowUpTheMoon said:

I think X-Men #1 has undergone a market correction and will retain the prices we are seeing now.  

Last time I checked there were 5,300 universal copies in the Census.   That's a very low supply compared to the ultra high demand. 

It'll be interesting to see how much the census increases as people rush to get their X-Men #1s graded to meet this ultra-high demand...I wonder what the numbers will look like in 6 months to a year?

Any increase in the census still may not be enough to meet demand, but it might contribute to some price stability.

Using Avengers #1 as a comparison, Disney's Marvel takeover, the first movie in 2012, and all the subsequent Avengers movies through the big one (Endgame) only saw the Avengers #1 universal census increase by 2,200 copies over 9 years of CGC grading to 3,200 copies (currently).  That's an increase for sure, but we know some of those 2,200 were re-grades and the old counts weren't removed from the census.  3,200 universal copies of Avengers #1 is the "max" and due to resubmissions (without reporting them), it's likely a few hundred lower than 3,200.

X-Men #1 has already had movies (since before Avengers), and all during the 20 years of CGC grading, and we're around 3,700 universal copies now. 

( @BlowUpTheMoon said 5,300 universal for X-Men #1, but it's 5,300 total on the census for the 1963 edition.)

Will we have an increase in the CGC census for X-Men #1 (1963)?  Absolutely, but I wouldn't expect it to be thousands of copies in 6 months to a year.  Over a few years, sure... but some of those will be unreported resubmissions, and the actual number in existence will always be lower than the CGC census.

By comparison, there are 19,000+ PSA graded 1986 Michael Jordan cards, including 316 of them (PSA 10) with sales above $250,000 each.

X-Men #1 might fall... but if a few of those $250,000+ Michael Jordan card collectors also like comic books (and I'm a guy with both an X-Men #1 and a 1986 Fleer Jordan in my collection --- much lower grade, of course :grin:)

... there simply won't be enough X-Men #1, even after another "rush to get X-Men #1s graded"... or else those Jordan cards are the weak point in the collectibles world, and they're about to crash in a way that makes the 1990s look like a minor setback.

Edited by valiantman
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8 hours ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

 I don’t think the market will crash.  But this exponential growth is unsustainable, and books will inevitably hit a price ceiling.   Once prices start to flat line & the easy money is no longer available, many will start to unload these books and move into something else.   Whether or not the market can absorb these books remains to be seen, and will determine the degree of price correction.2c
 

 

 

8 hours ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

Enough with the tired “doom-and gloomers” comments

:acclaim:

Edited by jsilverjanet
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5 hours ago, kimik said:

It is funny to see the board reactions to these threads when they pop up every year or so. We have seen numerous price gap ups since the start of these boards, and the pattern has always been the same for the established keys/hot covers - run up, plateau/small correction for a while, then run up again as cycle repeats itself. And, there is a pattern as to which books move first and which follow later (as well as publishers) - the top books in any age move first, then the rest follow typically in order of importance. Movies/TV have distorted this a bit, but titles like the X-Men and FF were no brainer spec plays a couple of years ago when the Fox deal went through (I just wish I had not started selling when it was only a 2-3x return last year :cry:).

For the hot flavor of the month books, it is run up, short peak, then large pull back to a much lower level, but one that is higher than where it started (e.g. Marvel Super-Heroes 13). Get in, get out, and deploy the $$$ elsewhere.

I tend to think along these lines as well. 

This run up is actually a continuation of a pattern we've seen many times before. What's different is how fast books are climbing and I imagine that acceleration is driven by a number of factors...  Covid, sports cards collectors, stimulus and all the other junk we've been discussing. 

It will be interesting to see how the next few months play out. Is that plateau longer because this market ran up so much? Is the correction more severe? 

Or are there going to be so many collectors who are currently standing on the side lines, feeling like they missed out on big keys and waiting for prices to come down, that the correction never really takes place? 

It's going to be an interesting few months. 

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Whether the market continues to climb, correct or crash will probably hinge on the box office of the next couple Marvel movies.

Black Widow should do okay. I have no idea how Eternals, or Shang-Chi will perform. They are untested properties and could blow up like Guardians of the Galaxy. I have no idea.

As for the original poster's question, I think golden age is the most stable financially because they are so rare. Even if silver/bronze take a nose dive because of demand dipping, and a lot of supply, you'll still have trouble finding Timely Captain America issues. 

Personally, I'd save a little more and get a comic that if it was the only one in my collection, I'd be happy with it.

Remember, what you buy only has to make you happy, no matter what anyone else thinks.

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2 hours ago, silverseeker said:

Last time I checked there were 5,300 universal copies in the Census.   That's a very low supply compared to the ultra high demand. 

 

It'll be interesting to see how much the census increases as people rush to get their X-Men #1s graded to meet this ultra-high demand...I wonder what the numbers will look like in 6 months to a year?

Any increase in the census still may not be enough to meet demand, but it might contribute to some price stability.

 

I don't see submissions having any effect on the market either way right now when the fever has hit.
Population counts of 500 or 5000+ doesn't seem to make much of a difference with this madness. A 500K card a 30K wax box or a 10K X-Men comic, I don't think it matters. They can all ride the roller-coaster just as easy.
 

Edited by Rip
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2 hours ago, valiantman said:

Using Avengers #1 as a comparison, Disney's Marvel takeover, the first movie in 2012, and all the subsequent Avengers movies through the big one (Endgame) only saw the Avengers #1 universal census increase by 2,200 copies over 9 years of CGC grading to 3,200 copies (currently).  That's an increase for sure, but we know some of those 2,200 were re-grades and the old counts weren't removed from the census.  3,200 universal copies of Avengers #1 is the "max" and due to resubmissions (without reporting them), it's likely a few hundred lower than 3,200.

X-Men #1 has already had movies (since before Avengers), and all during the 20 years of CGC grading, and we're around 3,700 universal copies now. 

( @BlowUpTheMoon said 5,300 universal for X-Men #1, but it's 5,300 total on the census for the 1963 edition.)

Will we have an increase in the CGC census for X-Men #1 (1963)?  Absolutely, but I wouldn't expect it to be thousands of copies in 6 months to a year.  Over a few years, sure... but some of those will be unreported resubmissions, and the actual number in existence will always be lower than the CGC census.

By comparison, there are 19,000+ PSA graded 1986 Michael Jordan cards, including 316 of them (PSA 10) with sales above $250,000 each.

X-Men #1 might fall... but if a few of those $250,000+ Michael Jordan card collectors also like comic books (and I'm a guy with both an X-Men #1 and a 1986 Fleer Jordan in my collection --- much lower grade, of course :grin:)

... there simply won't be enough X-Men #1, even after another "rush to get X-Men #1s graded"... or else those Jordan cards are the weak point in the collectibles world, and they're about to crash in a way that makes the 1990s look like a minor setback.

A lot (most all) of high end PSA Jordan cards have already lost around half value (or more) from Feb.
I don't see the trend stopping anytime soon.
If you bought a Jordan PSA 9 Rookie the first week of Feb you paid 80K, this week one sold for 26K

Edited by Rip
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10 minutes ago, snitzer said:

All this thread has done is make me want to buy a few Jordan cards :ohnoez:

Lots of "deals" to be had from early Feb.:devil:
But if you bought last year, you are still solid(thumbsu
https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/basketball-cards/1986-fleer/michael-jordan/values/299576#g=10

Edited by Rip
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