May Heritage Auction starting to look pretty interesting 3 3

[Rick2you2]

Question: is the quality of offerings (e.g. anticipated prices based on recent sales) going to soon outstrip the willingness of people to pay for them? At the show, I had a chat with another collector, with significant holdings, who felt we are beginning to see that, with a lot of art coming onto the market. I don't think it is there quite yet, but we may soon be at a tipping point, particularly when people with money will be able to spend it on other things soon. Let me add that he was focused on items above $5K, as he felt the prices below that amount could be sustainable.

[jjonahjameson11]

1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

Question: is the quality of offerings (e.g. anticipated prices based on recent sales) going to soon outstrip the willingness of people to pay for them? At the show, I had a chat with another collector, with significant holdings, who felt we are beginning to see that, with a lot of art coming onto the market. I don't think it is there quite yet, but we may soon be at a tipping point, particularly when people with money will be able to spend it on other things soon. Let me add that he was focused on items above $5K, as he felt the prices below that amount could be sustainable.

Same stuff was said in 2012, when we saw record breaking prices on the McSpidey covers and other artwork.  It was the high-water mark year for prices for a while, but we're definitely in another price boom now.   

[Bronty]

2 hours ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

Same stuff was said in 2012, when we saw record breaking prices on the McSpidey covers and other artwork.  It was the high-water mark year for prices for a while, but we're definitely in another price boom now.   

feels like the same stuff is said all the time.

At some point it has to happen I guess, but not then and not now. 

[vodou]

3 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

Question: is the quality of offerings (e.g. anticipated prices based on recent sales) going to soon outstrip the willingness of people to pay for them? At the show, I had a chat with another collector, with significant holdings, who felt we are beginning to see that, with a lot of art coming onto the market. I don't think it is there quite yet, but we may soon be at a tipping point, particularly when people with money will be able to spend it on other things soon. Let me add that he was focused on items above $5K, as he felt the prices below that amount could be sustainable.

2032.

2 hours ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

Same stuff was said in 2012, when we saw record breaking prices on the McSpidey covers and other artwork.  It was the high-water mark year for prices for a while, but we're definitely in another price boom now.   

2032.

16 minutes ago, Bronty said:

feels like the same stuff is said all the time.

At some point it has to happen I guess, but not then and not now. 

2032.

[AnkurJ]

Had a discussion with another collector yesterday. Seems the market has been doubling. If you take an aggressive stance it doubles every 2 years. Moderate is every 3 years. Of course that’s not the case for all art but in many cases it seems to fit.

[Bronty]

4 minutes ago, AnkurJ said:

Had a discussion with another collector yesterday. Seems the market has been doubling. If you take an aggressive stance it doubles every 2 years. Moderate is every 3 years. Of course that’s not the case for all art but in many cases it seems to fit.

vague heuristic that fits in some cases and not in many others.   I wouldn't go plan my buying or selling around it!

[jjonahjameson11]

1 minute ago, AnkurJ said:

Had a discussion with another collector yesterday. Seems the market has been doubling. If you take an aggressive stance it doubles every 2 years. Moderate is every 3 years. Of course that’s not the case for all art but in many cases it seems to fit.

The funny thing with a lot of OA collectors is they feel the % price increases over this past year are significant, and they are when compared to previous years within this segment of the hobby.

However, those who still collect back issue comics, especially slabbed books, will tell you that the OA % increases are paltry in comparison. I don't want to list examples, but there are numerous books that have tripled and quadrupled in price over the past year.   And don't even get started on sports cards, Pokemon, etc.

By comparison, OA collectors should feel very fortunate that % price increases have 'only' doubled this past year.

Let the counterarguments begin! 

[Bronty]

yes

[Mephisto]

4 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

Question: is the quality of offerings (e.g. anticipated prices based on recent sales) going to soon outstrip the willingness of people to pay for them? At the show, I had a chat with another collector, with significant holdings, who felt we are beginning to see that, with a lot of art coming onto the market. I don't think it is there quite yet, but we may soon be at a tipping point, particularly when people with money will be able to spend it on other things soon. Let me add that he was focused on items above $5K, as he felt the prices below that amount could be sustainable.

The price boom in basically all collectibles has lead to me losing interest in collecting anything...except some OA. It’s at least one of a kind and as noted hasn’t been as stupid with price increases. Toward the end 2020 I was thinking of picking up some graded comics and cards in the future. Even if there is a roll back the dramatic run up in the past four months has greatly killed my interest as there are real life useable things I’d rather spend my money on.

Bronty knows I was buying some graded MTG cards I’ve wanted for years and nothing to crazy to start. The last card I bought was one I had wanted for around 25 years. I finally bought one for $500 in early November. The last sale in the exact same grade was triple at $1,500. 😬 

That’s great and all but I just don’t feel like adding the few others I wanted at this point. Cool but not cool enough for me to want to pay triple the price in just a few months. I had no intention of flipping these things but I had two cards that also ran up in price quite a bit that weren’t favorites so I sold them a month or so ago. The one went for about 4.5X what I had paid last summer and it was from The Dark which Bronty will tell you is the drizzling 💩. 
 

As noted comics are a runaway train. X-Men 1 and 4 have been on a crazy year compared to just 6 months ago. Baseball cards for guys like Mantle and Jeter rookies forget it. 
 

There have been other things like graded Marvel cards taking off...however there has been some clear manipulation there. 
Same seller and same exact serial number card all three times. Nothing fishy there especially with that first “sale”. There other examples of this same exact card same eBay seller (but different seller than the Black Widow card shown). Pump and Dump baby!
 

[Rick2you2]

4 hours ago, AnkurJ said:

Had a discussion with another collector yesterday. Seems the market has been doubling. If you take an aggressive stance it doubles every 2 years. Moderate is every 3 years. Of course that’s not the case for all art but in many cases it seems to fit.

While I recognize that the higher end stuff has been going up, a lot, I haven’t seen that impact. The things I buy tend to be idiosyncratic, not popular, so while there have been a few surprises, they have been livable. If you cull out the art that has gotten hot, and want to pick up something by, say, Jerry Grandinetti, I haven’t seen anything close to a doubling. Which is making me wonder why the entire market is viewed as hot vs. slices of it.

[Bronty]

Just now, Rick2you2 said:

While I recognize that the higher end stuff has been going up, a lot, I haven’t seen that impact. The things I buy tend to be idiosyncratic, not popular, so while there have been a few surprises, they have been livable. If you cull out the art that has gotten hot, and want to pick up something by, say, Jerry Grandinetti, I haven’t seen anything close to a doubling. Which is making me wonder why the entire market is viewed as hot vs. slices of it.

Agreed, and the answer is probably because the collector in question collects 90s image guys that have doubled in the last two years and has got the old blinders on.   

[sfilosa]

7 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

Question: is the quality of offerings (e.g. anticipated prices based on recent sales) going to soon outstrip the willingness of people to pay for them? At the show, I had a chat with another collector, with significant holdings, who felt we are beginning to see that, with a lot of art coming onto the market. I don't think it is there quite yet, but we may soon be at a tipping point, particularly when people with money will be able to spend it on other things soon. Let me add that he was focused on items above $5K, as he felt the prices below that amount could be sustainable.

Interesting that you used the phrase "with significant holdings". That sounds more like a stock portfolio, not a collection, so I was pretty sure where your "chat" comment was going.

Obviously, we could debate if prices are going to go up, down, all around, etc., but only time will tell.

Unlike 95% of other collectibles, OA is not a commodity. Commodities (including slabbed comic books, stocks, sports cards, coins, etc.) are much easier for "novices" to invest in as they don't need anywhere near the "expert/experience" knowledge to participate. Go to a casino and you can play Texas Hold'em or you can play Roulette. I like both. One is a thinking persons game and one is just completely random. Any novice can play Roulette.  

Point, anytime novice can profit greatly (or lose greatly), expect higher highs and lower lows and wild fluctuations in price.  Simple because the investment novice are only buying or selling based on greed and fear (hear that phrase in the stock market every day). Most OA collectors are not buying for greed or fear. We like prices to go up but also hate prices to go up (as there is still lots of OA we want to buy). And at the high end, even if someone was purely buying for investment, it would be tough for them to move the market down sharply as there would be little chance they own a huge "supply" of something very specific (e.g. 20 Steve Ditko Spider-Man pages). It would have been nearly impossible to accumulate that many over a fairly short period of time. A perfect example is that someone (it appears) had a number of Doctor Strange covers, especially the Frank Brunner early ones. While several have been sold over the past year, prices are only going up, not down, even though there is clearly more supply of these than there has been in many years. But that "supply" is on four or five, not tens or hundreds which can happen with a commodity.

All that said, yes, prices can go down, even for OA, but it would seem more like that prices stagnant for a while for certain art that is more common/accessible. For very common art (newer pieces and the artist is still churning out pieces every month), sure I can see those going down when some investor types realize this art is not the next hot thing.

    

 

 

[Bronty]

Its not just about knowledge, its about some of these people straight up manipulating by pushing up the price of items they have a lot of.     Can't push up identical properties on one of a kinds (there's no identical properties by definition).    And something where there is daily sales (Hulk 181, GSX1, X94, etc) makes it easy to hide their tracks.    Can't hide tracks on one of a kinds very well (see threads where people have noted art magically popping on and off the same dealer sites with HA auctions in between.. hm) .

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Bronty

[vodou]

41 minutes ago, sfilosa said:

...it would be tough for them to move the market down sharply as there would be little chance they own a huge "supply" of something very specific (e.g. 20 Steve Ditko Spider-Man pages).

You might just be surprised how many have very specific concentrations as you've defined them and often even in excess or "20".

51 minutes ago, sfilosa said:

A perfect example is that someone (it appears) had a number of Doctor Strange covers, especially the Frank Brunner early ones. While several have been sold over the past year, prices are only going up, not down, even though there is clearly more supply of these than there has been in many years.

There was some damage.

[sfilosa]

I don't doubt that some one might own 20 Ditko Spider-Man pages. My point was they weren't buying those for purely investments purposes over the past year or two. Some one might have 50 pages but have accumulated them over the past 10,20 or more years, and clearly bought them as a collector. 

I said Doctor Strange covers, not this splash page (which is surprising it went down that much). Heritage over the past year has sold the cover to #2-5, which would make me believe it was from the same consignor who has owned these for many years. None of those covers had ever been at HA before. The last one to sell went for $90k, the one before that $72k, then $48k, $52.8k. Doesn't seem like "supply" hurt the prices.

 

 

[batman_fan]

32 minutes ago, vodou said:

You might just be surprised how many have very specific concentrations as you've defined them and often even in excess or "20".

There was some damage.

They held it for almost a year, shouldn’t it have hammered for $36k?

[Rick2you2]

3 hours ago, sfilosa said:

Interesting that you used the phrase "with significant holdings". That sounds more like a stock portfolio, not a collection, so I was pretty sure where your "chat" comment was going.

Obviously, we could debate if prices are going to go up, down, all around, etc., but only time will tell.

Unlike 95% of other collectibles, OA is not a commodity. Commodities (including slabbed comic books, stocks, sports cards, coins, etc.) are much easier for "novices" to invest in as they don't need anywhere near the "expert/experience" knowledge to participate. Go to a casino and you can play Texas Hold'em or you can play Roulette. I like both. One is a thinking persons game and one is just completely random. Any novice can play Roulette.  

Point, anytime novice can profit greatly (or lose greatly), expect higher highs and lower lows and wild fluctuations in price.  Simple because the investment novice are only buying or selling based on greed and fear (hear that phrase in the stock market every day). Most OA collectors are not buying for greed or fear. We like prices to go up but also hate prices to go up (as there is still lots of OA we want to buy). And at the high end, even if someone was purely buying for investment, it would be tough for them to move the market down sharply as there would be little chance they own a huge "supply" of something very specific (e.g. 20 Steve Ditko Spider-Man pages). It would have been nearly impossible to accumulate that many over a fairly short period of time. A perfect example is that someone (it appears) had a number of Doctor Strange covers, especially the Frank Brunner early ones. While several have been sold over the past year, prices are only going up, not down, even though there is clearly more supply of these than there has been in many years. But that "supply" is on four or five, not tens or hundreds which can happen with a commodity.

All that said, yes, prices can go down, even for OA, but it would seem more like that prices stagnant for a while for certain art that is more common/accessible. For very common art (newer pieces and the artist is still churning out pieces every month), sure I can see those going down when some investor types realize this art is not the next hot thing.

    

 

 

He’s a long time collector who has untouchables, as well as things he buys and sells. The phrase was mine; too many years worth of Wall Street Journal readings, I guess. He was astonished at how high prices have gotten, and was expressing disbelief they were sustainable. Lots of us have expressed similar thoughts.

Hidden from view by the high prices of some slices of this hobby is the fact that some things don’t move much. I remember looking at one piece Anthony’s had listed for 6 years before it sold. This is such a nostalgia-based hobby that excellent artists’ works can languish due to the subject matter, or style, or characters being unpopular. Such is life.

I agree that stagnant pricing is more likely than published drop; more person to person discounting first. The dealer voluntarily knocked off $150 on a piece he listed for $750 this Sunday, which really was the current market price, because it wasn’t moving. My guess is that unpopular pieces/artistic runs from the 1960’s- 1980’s are good buys—not for appreciation, just enjoyment.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Rick2you2

[batman_fan]

Conan the Barbarian cover for issue #2 posted without image

[stinkininkin]

2 hours ago, sfilosa said:

I said Doctor Strange covers, not this splash page (which is surprising it went down that much). Heritage over the past year has sold the cover to #2-5, which would make me believe it was from the same consignor who has owned these for many years. None of those covers had ever been at HA before. The last one to sell went for $90k, the one before that $72k, then $48k, $52.8k. Doesn't seem like "supply" hurt the prices.

 

Sorry for the tangent, but does anyone know if all the Brunner Dr Strange covers and pages auctioned over the last 3 or 4 years happened to come from Brunner himself? Not sure if this type of information will be confirmed on a public forum like this, but the steady stream of Brunner art has me wondering if this is one of those rare examples of the artist keeping his art and cashing in years later and enjoying "retirement benefits", or if this was a collector who cornered the Brunner market back in the day when things were cheap?

[cloud cloddie]

1 hour ago, stinkininkin said:

Sorry for the tangent, but does anyone know if all the Brunner Dr Strange covers and pages auctioned over the last 3 or 4 years happened to come from Brunner himself? Not sure if this type of information will be confirmed on a public forum like this, but the steady stream of Brunner art has me wondering if this is one of those rare examples of the artist keeping his art and cashing in years later and enjoying "retirement benefits", or if this was a collector who cornered the Brunner market back in the day when things were cheap?

I’d be curious too. There seems to be a solid mix lately of collectors selling focused collections, and artists cashing out.