• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

What year will silver age comic values revert to in a crash?
2 2

51 posts in this topic

If there’s any type of correction, my gut says it will happen in 2023 and prices will settle down to mid-2021 or 2022 levels...in other words, it’s still going to cost everyone a lot more than it has historically to get that X-Men #1. :smile:

A lot will depend on how things change when we get back to some semblance of normalcy with travel, events, dining out, etc.

Having experienced the stock correction of 2000 and the housing correction of 2008, it felt like people were buying, buying, buying right up until the correction happened, and what’s going on with comics right now feels very similar.

Both my stock portfolio and home value took solid hits when these corrections happened, but both are much better off today than they were before the corrections.

With this noted and as many other people on these boards have said, if your comic collecting/investing horizon is longer term I think you’ll be okay provided you buy the right (blue chip) books...

Going back to the stock market of 2000, JDS Uniphase, Nortel Networks, etc. were the hot stocks of the time, and we all know what happened to them...the key will be to avoid their equivalents in today’s crazy comic market. :smile:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

lol

:roflmao:

which is true

take FF52 vs IH181 for example

IH181. Census 14K

https://comics.gocollect.com/guide/view/134372

FF52. Census 5K

https://comics.gocollect.com/guide/view/126637

Now if you count a decent copy of at least 6+

IH181 grade 6+ population roughly 70% x 14K = 9800

FF52 grade 6+ population roughly 49% x 5K = 2450

and yet

For IH181 grade 6+ will cost you $8K, where FF52 grade 6+ will cost you only $1.5K

That's why I think there's very low risk in silver age comics, they are rare and their prices are not inflated like bronze age keys

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CGC blue label outstanding paper quality and staples will be the last to take a hit and the fastest to recover. The explosive prices and price increases we had just seen cannot sustain.  I disagree with the word correction..it should be a natural slowdown. I think FF1, FF5, FF25 etc will be immune as the FF movies is going to be made by Disney/ Marvel studios finally right.

Edited by Mmehdy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, IronMan_Cave said:

which is true

take FF52 vs IH181 for example

IH181. Census 14K

https://comics.gocollect.com/guide/view/134372

FF52. Census 5K

https://comics.gocollect.com/guide/view/126637

Now if you count a decent copy of at least 6+

IH181 grade 6+ population roughly 70% x 14K = 9800

FF52 grade 6+ population roughly 49% x 5K = 2450

and yet

For IH181 grade 6+ will cost you $8K, where FF52 grade 6+ will cost you only $1.5K

That's why I think there's very low risk in silver age comics, they are rare and their prices are not inflated like bronze age keys

 

Hmm...carry the 2; then the square root of... hm    :idea:

Answer = Wolverine > Black Panther     lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Batmanis#1 said:

Since the 1st overstreet price guide came out that is how long I have been waiting.

Prices may plateau or go down temporarily but I believe this is a multi - decade trend and it will continue.  Buy and hold quality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, IronMan_Cave said:

which is true

take FF52 vs IH181 for example

IH181. Census 14K

https://comics.gocollect.com/guide/view/134372

FF52. Census 5K

https://comics.gocollect.com/guide/view/126637

Now if you count a decent copy of at least 6+

IH181 grade 6+ population roughly 70% x 14K = 9800

FF52 grade 6+ population roughly 49% x 5K = 2450

and yet

For IH181 grade 6+ will cost you $8K, where FF52 grade 6+ will cost you only $1.5K

That's why I think there's very low risk in silver age comics, they are rare and their prices are not inflated like bronze age keys

 

I wouldn't use the term rare for SA comics.  Massive print runs.  Yes, many have joined the ranks of dinosaurs and Jimmy Hoffa but many have survived.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is really only a small part of the SA market. Hyper keys ( beware I hold the copyright on that one) will just continue, others like Hawkman 4, Avengers 6, will occasionally break out of the pack, and have a short sharp rise before continuing at a more moderate pace, but those Hyper keys are now the new Golden Age.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/11/2021 at 5:00 PM, IronMan_Cave said:

which is true

take FF52 vs IH181 for example

IH181. Census 14K

https://comics.gocollect.com/guide/view/134372

FF52. Census 5K

https://comics.gocollect.com/guide/view/126637

Now if you count a decent copy of at least 6+

IH181 grade 6+ population roughly 70% x 14K = 9800

FF52 grade 6+ population roughly 49% x 5K = 2450

and yet

For IH181 grade 6+ will cost you $8K, where FF52 grade 6+ will cost you only $1.5K

That's why I think there's very low risk in silver age comics, they are rare and their prices are not inflated like bronze age keys

 

I started a thread on a coin collecting forum to gain insight into what happened in the coin market crash of 1989.  One of the old timers there said something that rings true.  He said that there were some coins that moved so much that the collectors stopped buying them and they were mostly traded back and forth between speculators until they crashed.  Those were the common ones that didn't make sense.  (example:  I'd like a NM98 for my collection, but I'm not going to buy one right now).  I also learned that the rarer, good quality stuff, went into hiding, because nobody wanted to sell at the post crash prices.  Alternately, some have told me that the rarer, good quality stuff was barely affected by the correction (and some news articles did back up that claim), and the reason they seemed to "go into hiding" was because the rarer, nice stuff (i.e., non-widgets) were snapped up quickly in the marketplace post-crash because it was immune from falling prices.  Prices actually dropped for several years, and the dealers who survived "sold low quickly and bought lower".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems to me if and when a correction occurs, it will be tied closely with equity markets much like in March 2020.  Speculative, modern, and bronze age books with relatively larger census numbers will be hit the hardest.  While the blue chip keys may also get hit, I doubt it will be as significant.  This is assuming we do get some sort of liquidity or solvency event in the markets leading to a deflationary scenario, whether brief or prolonged. 

If central banks and governments decide to kick can down the road with regards to massive debt and continue to print away, I wonder if it's possible for these "assets" to continue to go up in dollar price. 

It's also quite possible that comic books, specifically gold and silver age books, have been significantly undervalued over the years considering the true SCARCITY of most of the big blue chip major keys.  As a result, as demand picked up when new collectors entered the market during COVID, there was this big spike in price.  I mean really...are 2200 blue label AF15s so MANY that the global market can't absorb them?  Doubtful.  I don't expect prices to continue to climb in this manner...eventually there will be a steady state where demand meets supply...but for now...I wouldnt be banking on the market crashing either.  Just too many unknowns.  This is why I bit the bullet and bought an X-men 1 at these crazy prices despite putting it off for years.   It's a book I NEED to have in my collection.  Other books that I also put off getting like DD1, I'm ok missing out on and if the market does in fact correct massively, I'll pick one up then.  If it doesn't, no sweat.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, zosocane said:

Golden Age books are, relative to the Marvel SA and BA price explosion of 2021, great buys right now.

Agreed, there are lots of GA books that have hardly moved up in price.  That may change as buyers balk at these prices and transition to what they perceive as value.

Here's the GPA data for Marvel Mystery 23 CGC 6.5  A pretty nice copy of a great book.  It's gone up, perhaps doubled in 10 years, but that's nothing compared to what's happened to Marvel SA and BA keys.

Year Number High Low  
2021 1 $2850 $2850
2015 1 $1500 $1500
2014 1 $1793 $1793
2011 2 $1350 $1302
2010 1 $1135 $1135
2003 1 $661 $661
2002 1 $748 $748
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
2 2