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Assuming we're in a bubble, what DOESN'T pop and lose its value?
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76 posts in this topic

29 minutes ago, DavidTheDavid said:

Keep in mind what MCU rumors did to many books. For instance, Warlock rumors popped related keys, which never really "corrected" even after the rumors never materialized.

If we do get a correction here, I think it's foolish to assume that we'll see a return to pre-bubble prices. Rather, modest drops in price seem quite possible to me.

I'm always thinking about Thor 165

Seen a 9.2 on Clink with buddy asking over 4k for it......yikes

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4 hours ago, DavidTheDavid said:

Keep in mind what MCU rumors did to many books. For instance, Warlock rumors popped related keys, which never really "corrected" even after the rumors never materialized.

That's exactly why it hasn't corrected yet because the rumours are still very much alive since they haven't been killed or brought to fruition yet. :gossip:

If the rumours does materialize into reality, it is then at this point that the book usually starts to correct big time.  Or have you forgotten the time honor tradition which is almost always in play here of:  Buy on the Rumours, and Sell on the News?  hm  :tonofbricks:

Edited by lou_fine
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10 hours ago, Ablation Steve said:

What do you think will survive this (all-but-certain) bubble?

Well, I don't believe we'll be seeing any more sales of Transformers 1 at $44,000, as that one there was totally and completely  :screwy:!!!

:takeit:  :takeit:, the money, that is!!!  :bigsmile:

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How about non-key, average golden age?

I was tracking about 60 books in the first round of C-link auctions last week. Ended up winning just one, a mid-grade early Batman issue for normal GPA FMV (after taxes and fees).

It's not sexy, but it's a blue chip, not part of the speculative MCU / Disney+ or modern Star Wars hype, and and easily liquid. Today, tomorrow, and 10 years from now.

And I felt a lot more comfortable parking my $500 there than in a worse copy of Special Marvel Edition 15, or in Dogecoin or Ethereum.

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15 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

How about non-key, average golden age?

I was tracking about 60 books in the first round of C-link auctions last week. Ended up winning just one, a mid-grade early Batman issue for normal GPA FMV (after taxes and fees).

It's not sexy, but it's a blue chip, not part of the speculative MCU / Disney+ or modern Star Wars hype, and and easily liquid. Today, tomorrow, and 10 years from now.

And I felt a lot more comfortable parking my $500 there than in a worse copy of Special Marvel Edition 15, or in Dogecoin or Ethereum.

Yeah, I’d have to say the most obvious answer to what will be affected least if there is a bubble and it pops is those books that have gone up the least.  Non-key, run of the mill books, be they golden age or any other age.

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1 minute ago, thunsicker said:

Yeah, I’d have to say the most obvious answer to what will be affected least if there is a bubble and it pops is those books that have gone up the least.  Non-key, run of the mill books, be they golden age or any other age.

Ditto non-key average Silver Age.

For instance, Hulk 3-6 look like bargains right now.

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Most modern books (post-1985, my definition) are speculators catnip and thus pretty vulnerable to market correction, IMO.  These books, with few exceptions, are extremely common in just about any grade and I don't believe the argument that there's "only 1,200 CGC 9.8s" will hold up when people are scrambling to get out.  Actual scarcity will win out over grade scarcity.  2c

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Tired topic is tired.  Oh well I have nothing better to do.

1. No guarantee it's a bubble

2. Even if it is a bubble, history shows prices recover

3. Similarities may be found in the stock market, which has had many bubbles that have popped.  Yet even if you invested at the height of those bubbles, the worst times possible, because you are unlucky beyond belief, you would still be way, way ahead today.

4. I notice that in collectibles, like stocks, people like to call "bubble!" for years, then when it finally does pop, they are all smug.  But, hey, genius, you missed out on a bunch of gains on the way up while you were trying to time the top.  You can find threads on these very boards, from like 2-3 years ago, of people freaking out about the then "crazy" prices.  I can only assume they left the hobby in a huff after this last year.

5. Remember, kids: Time-in beats time-ing.

But okay, I'll answer the question as posed.  So if it is a bubble, and it is going to pop, and it's going to be comic Armageddon the likes of which no human has seen in the history of the world, "what do you think will survive?"

Well, I'm not that bullish on most moderns (by which I mean, say, 95 and later).  Especially modern ratio variants.  I'm also not that bullish on stuff that is just "cool"--within the last year I sold, for example, Jeehyung Lee Ghost Spider #1,  Dell'otto X-23, and Siege #3 Deadpool, to name a few.  (Even sold my Surfer 4 which I think is perhaps the coolest silver cover of all and actually does have some importance.)  I kept my H 340 but that's because it's my favorite cover of all time and I don't care if it goes to $10,000 or $10, I ain't selling it.)  I also sold most of my FOTM stuff like Venom, Knull, Miles Morales, Gwen Stacy, etc. (including, in OP's post, 2x Ultimate Fallout 4, as well as a Land variant EOSV 2).  I also sold a lot of random stuff where I had no idea why it was going up or why I bought it in the first place except it seemed "hot."

So what does that leave?  What's "safe"?

Well, most of what I would personally consider safe, and what I continue to hold, can be put into 2 categories: 1) big first appearances [AF15, H181, FF48, ASM101, ASM129, ASM194, X-Men101, X-Men129, Werewolf32, etc.] and 2) 70s-80s cultural significance [GI Joe, Transformers, Star Wars, TMNT, Usagi, etc.].  If something doesn't clearly go into one of those categories, then I'd be careful.  But there is a lot of good stuff to choose from--more than I can afford, in any case.

As long as people my age are alive (so I dunno you got another 40 years or so) and/or as long as MCU stays happening, I think firsts and stuff that causes heavy nostalgia from the 70s-80s will stay in demand, and if there's a big "pop," I would expect those kinds of books to recover.  But X-force 20 "Venomized," ASM569 2nd print, and Momoko's Surfer Black 4--three books I sold very recently?  Maybe not.

My 2c.

 

Edited by Poekaymon
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No book is bullet proof, but I would say there is a lot of solid Golden Age.

I would just watch the sports cards/non sports cards. And get ready for the same thing to hit here. Not sure how high it will go before the drop, but I except the same thing that happened to Jordan etc. to happen here with many top key books that went bonkers have some drastic corrections. If I had to pick a top book to stay away from a few eras I would say X-Men 1, FF48 (Silver), Giant-Sized X-Men 1 (Bronze), or Marvel Previews 95. (Modern)

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1 hour ago, Rip said:

No book is bullet proof, but I would say there is a lot of solid Golden Age.

I would just watch the sports cards/non sports cards. And get ready for the same thing to hit here. Not sure how high it will go before the drop, but I except the same thing that happened to Jordan etc. to happen here with many top key books that went bonkers have some drastic corrections. If I had to pick a top book to stay away from a few eras I would say X-Men 1, FF48 (Silver), Giant-Sized X-Men 1 (Bronze), or Marvel Previews 95. (Modern)

What exactly has happened to Jordan cards?? Slight dip overdue to a huge jump? Psa 10s sold for $46,000 like 18-24 mos ago and are now $400,000+. Also, i think FF 48 is still undervalued from 8.5 and under, jist wait till Marvel puts out an SS show & see what happens. 

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Jordan RC cards since late Feb have been falling across the board.

Yes certainly way above if you bought over a year ago, you are still doing great.

But if you bought a Jordan in PSA 10 in Feb. you might have paid $600-$700K+. Now you can get one for around 400K

If you bought a PSA 9 in Feb it peeked at around 90K, but you can buy one today for around 30K. There are numerous other examples in both sport and non-sports have have seen some of the same drops.

Pokemon, Star Wars, the list goes on.

Jordan PSA 9 graph below.

Screen Shot 2021-05-02 at 11.00.14 PM.png

Edited by Rip
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On 5/1/2021 at 11:03 PM, lou_fine said:

Well, I don't believe we'll be seeing any more sales of Transformers 1 at $44,000, as that one there was totally and completely.  :bigsmile:

But those sports cards rookie collector-specs are diversifying their slabbed cards into Marvel funnybooks. Turn down the volume, as the death knell approacheth in 2024:

 

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Well, after watching that video, I decided to be ahead of the game and lit a match to my copy of Hulk 181 and Spidey 129.  :banana:

I think everyone here on the boards should do the same thing to these worthless books that are already slabbed by the tens of thousands.  :devil:

Edited by lou_fine
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Am I the only one who collects for fun, and nostalgia, and is not that concerned with speculating or constantly monitoring the market value of my collection?  I feel like you guys should be trading stocks, not collecting comics.  Spider-Man shouldn't be in charge of your 401k.  Relax.

 

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I usually never sell or grade books, doing it now to unload books I've been carrying around for 30 years

Doing it now, cause cha ching. Finally making some money back. I doubt I'll make a profit, but the money is useful right now

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