Assuming we're in a bubble, what DOESN'T pop and lose its value? 1 1

[serling1978]

One book that will never go back down in value : Iron Man # something, first appearance of The Ghost? Or was it just Ghost. That really memorable villain from the last Ant-man movie that will be important to collectors til the end of time. 

It's still a thing right? *gazes at wall full of Iron Man # somethings displayed on wall*

 

 

 

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Dr. Dank said:

I usually never sell or grade books, doing it now to unload books I've been carrying around for 30 years

Doing it now, cause cha ching. Finally making some money back. I doubt I'll make a profit, but the money is useful right now

If you haven't made a profit after some 30 odd years, then you must have been following the hot tips from Wizard religiously and buying Valiant and Image books for 3-figures when they were right at the top of the market a week after landing on the shelves of the LCS's.    

[MetalPSI]

Just now, lou_fine said:

If you haven't made a profit after some 30 odd years, then you must have been following the hot tips from Wizard religiously and buying Valiant and Image books for 3-figures when they were right at the top of the market a week after landing on the shelves of the LCS's.    

I never sold a book in 30 years. Just started selling now

[comicginger1789]

Do I think comics will crash? No

Do I think we will see a 5 year period where very few record sales of big books are made? Yes

Do I think some long term spec books wk drop? Yes

Do I think some major keys will plateau or drop for a period of time? Yes

Do I think, if patient, collectors will find some good deals within the next 5 years? Yes

Overall, comics will be fine. But there are some books that are selling in the $50-200 range currently that I would not be surprised to see fall down to the $20-100 range tops in the coming years. If you correctly predict which books these are, you will make smart sales now (and poor buys).

[ectocooler]

On 5/1/2021 at 8:32 PM, Poekaymon said:

Missed the memo on this one.  TF is going on with Wolv 88.

It’s the hottest book of all time, even if it’s a bubble this book is only going to soar higher and higher until it replaces the sun, that’s how hot it is.

(I have like 4 copies of this book by accident and just now noticed it’s worth more than a dollar)

[HotKey]

What %s separate a "market correction" vs a "bubble burst"?

If GSXM 1 drops 20%, which one is it?

30%? Etc... what is the red line where it's no longer a normal correction and is doom and gloom?

[Gatsby77]

17 hours ago, ectocooler said:

It’s the hottest book of all time, even if it’s a bubble this book is only going to soar higher and higher until it replaces the sun, that’s how hot it is.

(I have like 4 copies of this book by accident and just now noticed it’s worth more than a dollar)

Wolverine was my favorite character growing up, Bought # 18 and up off the rack and it was the first series I ever went back to fill in to # 1.

But I stopped at # 82 because I was so pissed at the price increase to $1.95 the month before.

[InfantTerrible]

19 hours ago, serling1978 said:

One book that will never go back down in value : Iron Man # something, first appearance of The Ghost? Or was it just Ghost. That really memorable villain from the last Ant-man movie that will be important to collectors til the end of time. 

It's still a thing right? *gazes at wall full of Iron Man # somethings displayed on wall*

 

 

 

Keep your Iron Man comics, at some point Disney will have to reboot the character. Iron-Man is MCU biggest money-maker in toys revenue. BY FAR, like not even close.

And Disney's toys and merchandise revenue is like 3-4 times of their movie revenue....there is no way Disney keep IM grounded, they want that toys revenue even more than the movie revenue.....The only other character that can match IM toy's revenue is Spider-Man......the rest is just meh, even not selling at all (like Captain Marvel, Hawkeye, etc)

Edited May 4, 2021 by InfantTerrible

[valiantman]

5 hours ago, HotKey said:

What %s separate a "market correction" vs a "bubble burst"?

If GSXM 1 drops 20%, which one is it?

30%? Etc... what is the red line where it's no longer a normal correction and is doom and gloom?

Pick a "pre-bubble" time.  Whatever the price is "pre-bubble", you need to get back to that point for the bubble to be gone. If the price stays higher than "pre-bubble", then something bubblicious remains.

[thunsicker]

4 hours ago, valiantman said:

10 hours ago, HotKey said:

What %s separate a "market correction" vs a "bubble burst"?

If GSXM 1 drops 20%, which one is it?

30%? Etc... what is the red line where it's no longer a normal correction and is doom and gloom?

Pick a "pre-bubble" time.  Whatever the price is "pre-bubble", you need to get back to that point for the bubble to be gone. If the price stays higher than "pre-bubble", then something bubblicious remains.

I think they are saying the rapid increase in prices is the market correcting to a new higher level that it should have been at all along.  Why this major 'correction' should happen during the year that Covid has put a halt to MCU releases is beyond me.

[buttock]

The consensus among people in this thread that we're not in a bubble assures me that we are, in fact, in a bubble.  

[ADAMANTIUM]

Sign sign everywhere a sign, do this domt do that, cant read the sign?

[valiantman]

47 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

I think they are saying the rapid increase in prices is the market correcting to a new higher level that it should have been at all along.  Why this major 'correction' should happen during the year that Covid has put a halt to MCU releases is beyond me.

Well, there's a counterpoint - if you start examining the whole market starting with modern comic variants selling for $1,000+, the key issues of 30+ years ago selling for just $1,000 or even $10,000 might be extreme bargains (by comparison).

If you also look at $100,000+ sportscards from the past 20 years, the key issues of 45+ years ago selling for just $10,000 to even $100,000 could be extreme bargains (by comparison).

If you look at sportscards like 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookies selling for $10,000+ while there are 10,000 of them on the census, then seeing ASM #300 selling for under $10,000 when there are less than 1,400 CGC 9.8s on the census... what do you think?

If you look at $50,000+ video games from the past 35 years... then realize there isn't a $50,000+ comic from the past 35 years, they all look like bargains (by comparison).

Etc.

The comic market is very high compared to its former self. 

When the comic market is compared to other markets that regularly put 5-figure and 6-figure prices on newer items, the correction could easily be long overdue.

Is the comic market completely separate from all the other markets?  I think it was before slabbing. 

You had to know all the details about comics, you had to trust price guides instead of checking actual sales, and there was a good chance you'd lose money when you sold back to the same local person you bought from. 

Not anymore.

There's still a good chance you'll lose money on raw books (or sportscards or video games) if you don't actually know how to grade, but that's always been part of the learning process. 

You can skip that step when you buy slabs (cards, comics, video games, toys) and compare across your interests in any or all of those markets.

[TheOldCollector]

Comparing sports cards to comics is a big jump. There are a lot more people out there into sports than there are comics. Had the comic market grown this high by itself overtime then I would trust it. But when you double the prices and sometimes even more on comics that aren't even keys, partial keys or have any actual reason to go up that high and then add in the keys that triple, quadruple as well all within the last year, you have what any other market would defiantly call a bubble. As much as I don't want to see the values go back down it's most defiantly going to happen. When everyone starts spending their entertainment funds on other things they use to do pre-COVID. I don't think the prices are going to plummet they will still be above what they were pre-COVID but you don't have to be a master of markets to see a correction will come. Look at the gradual increase on ASM 300 from (2010-Right Before COVID) it's a nice steady climb then COVID hit and it straight sky rockets through the roof. People keep bringing up these sports collectors and these new rich people jumping in the game but where were all of these people pre-COVID just sitting around pretending the comic book world didn't exist, they just decided while no new movies were being released that they were going to just flood the comic book world all of a sudden? Nope, don't buy it. Give it a year tops once everyone is back to taking vacations and spending their hard earned dollars at the bar or on strippers, us collectors will be back to a relatively normal market and complaining about how we should have sold more of our books during the COVID times maybe not the keys but these random books selling for high dollars just because they're older. I have some Dazzlers, Smurfs, Sonic the Hedgehogs and What Ifs for sale just in case any of you (sports collectors / new money) peeps are reading this I mean come on you have books that were in the dollar bins pre-COVID going for ridiculous prices and you don't think a correction is coming?

[fantastic_four]

On 5/2/2021 at 11:54 PM, Rip said:

If I had to pick a top book to stay away from a few eras I would say X-Men 1, FF48 (Silver), Giant-Sized X-Men 1 (Bronze), or Marvel Previews 95. (Modern)

I mostly agree with this list with one exception--X-Men 1.  The supply on that one is an order of magnitude or two lower than the others, particularly FF 48 which seems like a perfect Silver Age example since it is by far the Silver key with the highest supply due to being present in multiple warehouse finds.  Why X-men 1?

I've been out of the market for the last decade, but over the last few days I've been looking at prices again and FF 48 is by far the biggest surprise increase I've seen.  I don't get it...feels a bit Gamestop-y.  

[Gatsby77]

10 hours ago, valiantman said:

Well, there's a counterpoint - if you start examining the whole market starting with modern comic variants selling for $1,000+, the key issues of 30+ years ago selling for just $1,000 or even $10,000 might be extreme bargains (by comparison).

If you also look at $100,000+ sportscards from the past 20 years, the key issues of 45+ years ago selling for just $10,000 to even $100,000 could be extreme bargains (by comparison).

If you look at sportscards like 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookies selling for $10,000+ while there are 10,000 of them on the census, then seeing ASM #300 selling for under $10,000 when there are less than 1,400 CGC 9.8s on the census... what do you think?

If you look at $50,000+ video games from the past 35 years... then realize there isn't a $50,000+ comic from the past 35 years, they all look like bargains (by comparison).

Etc.

The comic market is very high compared to its former self. 

When the comic market is compared to other markets that regularly put 5-figure and 6-figure prices on newer items, the correction could easily be long overdue.

Is the comic market completely separate from all the other markets?  I think it was before slabbing. 

You had to know all the details about comics, you had to trust price guides instead of checking actual sales, and there was a good chance you'd lose money when you sold back to the same local person you bought from. 

Not anymore.

There's still a good chance you'll lose money on raw books (or sportscards or video games) if you don't actually know how to grade, but that's always been part of the learning process. 

You can skip that step when you buy slabs (cards, comics, video games, toys) and compare across your interests in any or all of those markets.

Sure.

But looking at last night's Comiclink auction still scares me.

I'm supposed to believe that Marvel Comics Presents # 72 is a legit $1,000+ book in 9.8?

That Iron Man # 150 (cool cover - yes) is a legit $3,000+ book?

That's banana pants.

And no - the market for vintage sealed 80s/90s video games is not at all comparable to the market for 80s/90s comic books. Precisely because we were all saving and collecting comic books, and virtually no kids were buying - and then keeping sealed and not playing - their video games at the time. Adult dealer warehouses upon warehouses of sealed / unsold Atari games? Sure. Comparable dealer stores of NES and SNES games? Nope.

Comparing 80s/90s comics to 80s/90s video games isn't comparing apples to oranges; it's comparing apples to hand grenades.

Edited May 5, 2021 by Gatsby77

[Gatsby77]

1 hour ago, fantastic_four said:

I mostly agree with this list with one exception--X-Men 1.  The supply on that one is an order of magnitude or two lower than the others, particularly FF 48 which seems like a perfect Silver Age example since it is by far the Silver key with the highest supply due to being present in multiple warehouse finds.  Why X-men 1?

I've been out of the market for the last decade, but over the last few days I've been looking at prices again and FF 48 is by far the biggest surprise increase I've seen.  I don't get it...feels a bit Gamestop-y.  

Counterpoint - I think X-Men 1 fits this list because it is ridiculously common vs. the other Silver Age keys of its era. Not as common as Daredevil 1, sure, but far more common than the likes of FF 1, TOS 39,  Hulk 1, Showcase 4, AF 15, etc.

[THE_BEYONDER]

43 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

 

That's banana pants.

 

[fantastic_four]

1 hour ago, Gatsby77 said:

3 hours ago, fantastic_four said:

I mostly agree with this list with one exception--X-Men 1.  The supply on that one is an order of magnitude or two lower than the others, particularly FF 48 which seems like a perfect Silver Age example since it is by far the Silver key with the highest supply due to being present in multiple warehouse finds.  Why X-men 1?

I've been out of the market for the last decade, but over the last few days I've been looking at prices again and FF 48 is by far the biggest surprise increase I've seen.  I don't get it...feels a bit Gamestop-y.  

Counterpoint - I think X-Men 1 fits this list because it is ridiculously common vs. the other Silver Age keys of its era. Not as common as Daredevil 1, sure, but far more common than the likes of FF 1, TOS 39,  Hulk 1, Showcase 4, AF 15, etc.

CGC Census counts for a few Silver keys along with the later ones Rip listed:

• Showcase 4 - 522 total, 8 at 9.0 and above
• Amazing Fantasy 15 - 3433 total, 24 at 9.0 and above
• Hulk 1 - 1854 total, 20 at 9.0 and above
• Fantastic Four 1 - 2532 total, 17 at 9.0 and above
• Tales of Suspense 39 - 2374 total, 59 at 9.0 and above
• Amazing Spider-Man 1 - 4179 total, 45 at 9.0 and above
• X-Men 1 - 5236 total, 69 at 9.0 and above
• Fantastic Four 48 - 7102 total, 609 at 9.0 and above
• Giant-Size X-Men 1 - 10232 total, 2267 at 9.0 and above
• Marvel Previews 95 - 87 total, 57 at 9.0 and above

The order of magnitude spread here is that Showcase 4 is at least 10x less available than the rest and FF 48 and GSX 1 are 10x more available than the rest.  So while I agree that X-Men #1 is certainly a bit more available than the other Silver Marvel keys, it's not nearly as large as the jump to Bronze age comics, or in the case of FF 48 a Silver Age comic that is unusually singular in its high availability relative to other issues from the same era.  X-Men #1 is definitely not so much more available than the other Silver keys that we should expect anything about it to pop, and it has risen steadily for decades about like most Silver keys have.  What reason do we have to believe X-Men #1 would suddenly start decreasing when it hasn't before?  It enjoyed a similar bump around 2000 when the first X-Men film came out, but I didn't note a drop at any point after that film bump.  I bought my copy in 2000 myself almost entirely inspired by having seen the film, so I was riding that wave the entire time and took note of its surge, concordant levelling off, and subsequent gradual increase that most Silver keys experience over time.

I don't know anything about Marvel Previews 95.  Is that one known to be rare for a modern, or should we expect a flood of these to get certified over the next decade or two?

Of all the issues listed above Marvel Previews 95 and FF 48 have seen the largest increases over the last few years, and we know why MP 95 has--because of the rise of Miles Morales.  I'm EXTREMELY personally biased towards FF 48 as it's probably my single favorite comic book ever--or at least the entire 48 to 50 story arc is my favorite--but that issue hasn't seen the kind of increase we're seeing on it over the last few years in almost all of its history.  And it's not because of low demand, historically it has been because of high supply.  Does anyone have a feel for the jump?  Is it almost entirely due to speculation of Galactus being the next big MCU bad we will build up to in the way the MCU built up to Thanos throughout the last decade?

What I particularly don't entirely get about FF 48 is where the supply is.  There has almost never been a time since CGC started when there aren't multiple 9.6 copies of that issue available, but supply has been down a bit since Disney bought Fox.  Are more people just holding onto theirs waiting for full film hype to set in?

Edited May 5, 2021 by fantastic_four

[Gatsby77]

30 minutes ago, fantastic_four said:

CGC Census counts for a few Silver keys along with the later ones Rip listed:

• Showcase 4 - 522 total, 8 at 9.0 and above
• Amazing Fantasy 15 - 3433 total, 24 at 9.0 and above
• Hulk 1 - 1854 total, 20 at 9.0 and above
• Fantastic Four 1 - 2532 total, 17 at 9.0 and above
• Tales of Suspense 39 - 2374 total, 59 at 9.0 and above
• Amazing Spider-Man 1 - 4179 total, 45 at 9.0 and above
• X-Men 1 - 5236 total, 69 at 9.0 and above
• Fantastic Four 48 - 7102 total, 609 at 9.0 and above
• Giant-Size X-Men 1 - 10232 total, 2267 at 9.0 and above
• Marvel Previews 95 - 87 total, 57 at 9.0 and above

The order of magnitude spread here is that Showcase 4 is at least 10x less available than the rest and FF 48 and GSX 1 are 10x more available than the rest.  So while I agree that X-Men #1 is certainly a bit more available than the other Silver Marvel keys, it's not nearly as large as the jump to Bronze age comics, or in the case of FF 48 a Silver Age comic that is unusually singular in its high availability relative to other issues from the same era.  X-Men #1 is definitely not so much more available than the other Silver keys that we should expect anything about it to pop, and it has risen steadily for decades about like most Silver keys have.  What reason do we have to believe X-Men #1 would suddenly start decreasing when it hasn't before?  It enjoyed a similar bump around 2000 when the first X-Men film came out, but I didn't note a drop at any point after that film bump.  I bought my copy in 2000 myself almost entirely inspired by having seen the film, so I was riding that wave the entire time and took note of its surge, concordant levelling off, and subsequent gradual increase that most Silver keys experience over time.

I don't know anything about Marvel Previews 95.  Is that one known to be rare for a modern, or should we expect a flood of these to get certified over the next decade or two?

Of all the issues listed above Marvel Previews 95 and FF 48 have seen the largest increases over the last few years, and we know why MP 95 has--because of the rise of Miles Morales.  I'm EXTREMELY personally biased towards FF 48 as it's probably my single favorite comic book ever--or at least the entire 48 to 50 story arc is my favorite--but that issue hasn't seen the kind of increase we're seeing on it over the last few years in almost all of its history.  And it's not because of low demand, historically it has been because of high supply.  Does anyone have a feel for the jump?  Is it almost entirely due to speculation of Galactus being the next big MCU bad we will build up to in the way the MCU built up to Thanos throughout the last decade?

What I particularly don't entirely get about FF 48 is where the supply is.  There has almost never been a time since CGC started when there aren't multiple 9.6 copies of that issue available, but supply has been down a bit since Disney bought Fox.  Are more people just holding onto theirs waiting for full film hype to set in?

Good post.

My gripe with X-Men # 1 was laid out in the recent thread, "Is it now a Top 3 Silver Age book?"

Some noob collectors were arguing that it was (which it is, by price, having now surpassed the price of both Showcase 4 and Hulk 1), while I - and most other long-term collectors - argued no, because of its relative availability -- and 50+ years of comic book history of its playing second fiddle price-wise to AF 15, FF 1, Showcase 4, and Hulk 1.

I also disagree with the thesis that somehow an 8th X-Men movie coming out in 2024 will suddenly skyrocket the book.

And yet, because of the perception that a Disney-led MCU re-boot in an 8th film 3-4 years from now will magically lead to new fans has led the book to double-triple over the last 12 months.

3.0s are now $10-$12k

5.0s are $22-$25k.

I just don't see it.

And I've yet to see a veteran collector admit that they'd take an X-Men # 1 over a same-grade copy of Showcase 4, Hulk 1 or FF 1, even though it now costs more than 2 of those 3.