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Assuming we're in a bubble, what DOESN'T pop and lose its value?
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Started by Ablation Steve,

76 posts in this topic

fantastic_four

fantastic_four

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

And yet, because of the perception that a Disney-led MCU re-boot in an 8th film 3-4 years from now will magically lead to new fans has led the book to double-triple over the last 12 months.

3.0s are now $10-$12k

5.0s are $22-$25k.

I just don't see it.

And I've yet to see a veteran collector admit that they'd take an X-Men # 1 over a same-grade copy of Showcase 4, Hulk 1 or FF 1, even though it now costs more than 2 of those 3.

Yea, X-Men isn't in the top five Silver books, definitely not.  Those prices you're quoting for 3.0 and 5.0 copies are definitely bubbly and won't persist.  I hadn't noticed those since I only look at high grade, and oddly this year there are multiple copies that have sold for around those same prices that are significantly higher-graded, so those sales definitely look to be outliers.

X-Men has such a weird history since they're a team that didn't finally become popular until twelve years after they were introduced, and because of that I look at the Silver Age issues as a completely separate and inferior title and everything after 1975 as the main title.  Had they come out of the gate with Wolverine then yea, it'd probably be #2 behind Amazing Fantasy 15, but since the 1960s issues only feature the B-list X-Men characters aside from Magneto and Xavier it just doesn't compare to other books from the era.

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fantastic_four

fantastic_four

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Posted (edited)

Side note that's directly related to the topic--back around 2008 or 2009 I calculated total and annual return rates for every certified comic I owned, so I'm back here posting in Comics General because I figured after a decade it was way past time to do it again since I lost my previous MS Access query that did it to a computer crash.  This time I've got my data and queries in the cloud so I shouldn't have to do this again other than to keep refreshing market values of what I own.  I expected we might be in a bit of a bubble since collectibles ALWAYS go up during tough financial times, but since the market has been so good over the last six months or so I thought it may have ended--but apparently not.  Not sure yet what to attribute it to aside from MCU Phase 4 and 5 movie hype.  hm

Back in 2008 my annual rate of return was 8.5%, just a bit below the 10% historical annual return rate of the stock market.  Almost all of that is Silver and Bronze age FF and Spidey that I've also got up in registry sets that I haven't updated in a decade (because I haven't bought anything in a decade).  Back then I didn't compute rate of return on keys only which I assume is well above 10%, but this time I will.  I'm a title completionist so most of what I own doesn't really appreciate as much as people who focus on keys.

I'm only on year 5 of serving a 20-year parenting sentence so increasing the collection isn't in my immediate future--particularly since I spend most of my free cash on action figures these days--but I was feeling irresponsible about keeping money tied up in comics so I'm long past due for a financial analysis.  :blush:

Edited by fantastic_four
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Gatsby77

Gatsby77

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16 minutes ago, fantastic_four said:

Yea, X-Men isn't in the top five Silver books, definitely not.  Those prices you're quoting for 3.0 and 5.0 copies are definitely bubbly and won't persist.  I hadn't noticed those since I only look at high grade, and oddly this year there are multiple copies that have sold for around those same prices that are significantly higher-graded, so those sales definitely look to be outliers.

X-Men has such a weird history since they're a team that didn't finally become popular until twelve years after they were introduced, and because of that I look at the Silver Age issues as a completely separate and inferior title and everything after 1975 as the main title.  Had they come out of the gate with Wolverine then yea, it'd probably be #2 behind Amazing Fantasy 15, but since the 1960s issues only feature the B-list X-Men characters aside from Magneto and Xavier it just doesn't compare to other books from the era.

Yeah - but that's old-school comic collector talk.

We all see Giant-Size 1 / X-Men 94 as the more important books, rather than X-Men 1. Even moreso because the most important first app. in X-Men 1 is arguably Magneto, not even one of the X-Men themselves.

This new generation of Millennials / cryptocurrency / Facebook hype comic collectors, however, don't share this view.

They see "X-Men # 1" and push that as the mega-key to have, thus driving the absurd increases over the last six months.

Personally, while I had a CGC 3.0 copy for a few years, it was a lark of an impulse buy. It's never excited me as much as books like even Daredevil 1 (my favorite SA title).

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Smushi

Smushi

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Kinda a lurker and don’t post much at all so hopefully this comes off semi* intelligent lol.

For the last 3 years I got out of comics and back into Magic the Gathering. I have 3 teens picked it up and gave me a great excuse to dive back in. Through out that time I wanted to try and build my collection from my later teen years up and I started picking up moxen, cradles, all the reserve list (basically comic keys) that wasn’t reserved when I was a kid. What does this have to do with comics? Everything. 
Fast forward to covid all those cards that were reserved listed sky rocketed. More players playing, more (I call it bitcoin investing) where people are buying limited quantity items and pushing value to hold as assets. 
Now 3 years later kids don’t play, a hard year of covid and no gaming at a local comic card shop made me lose interest again. They are printing like mad new more powerful cards (like printing endless 1st appearances). So I said I’m out going back to my comic collecting.

The “bubble” in magic went no were. In 3 years I spent maybe 10k buying and holding. That 10k just sold for 40k (3 years).

Now to comics. I moved all of my 40k into comics. Because as much gain as you all have seen here to me the guy who watched magic, Pokémon, coins, stamps skyrocket over covid time frame and stimulus checks, comics just hasn’t seen the rise yet. Yes it has risen and on some keys (nm98, esv 2, asm300) I see the buying of bulk and relisting high like that of magic. But with so many keys out there it will take much longer to see the inflation. Already with books I have “sitting” at CGC I’ll be pushing a 40k profit assuming I’m remotely close on grading, buying raws to get slabbed lately. 

Movies create fans which creates more collectors. The vast majority of people who dabble or enter this market come in with maybe 2k and target those books first. The same happened in MtG. Next will be the silver keys. Not those mega 9.4-9.8 copies as those have always been out of reach for most. But the 5.5-8.5 range. As pointed out DC right now isn’t moving like marvel. There are vastly fewer copies in general and in high grade of DC keys then Marvel. Eventually silver keys will skyrocket like is happening now to power nine cards in MtG.

A long rant I know just figured I would share my thoughts, I plan on selling off the vast majority of these Bronze-Modern affordable to the average Joe in the coming months and getting my Showcase 4 Iv always wanted. Mark my words 2+ years from now silver keys will be out of reach for good for most collectors.

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Ed Hanes

Ed Hanes

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Posted (edited)

Comics like ASM keys are experiencing a surge in demand and pricing, as well as other silver age keys. This demand is so high that those who can't afford them move on to lesser keys. So second appearances are starting to raise in value. Nothing new here (although the spike over the past 60 days seems suspicious). When I refer to a bubble, myself.. I am talking about things like the 9.8 craze that seems to be piggybacking on the demand of silver age keys. People have money but dont necessarily have the kind of money to buy a silver age key. So, they put their money elsewhere..especially those wanting to make investments in collectibles or wanting to flip the comic quickly and make a profit. This appears to me as a 'bubble' that will burst hard..which could have a short term affect on silver age keys (not sure how). The question is ..what percentage of sellers and buyers now are speculators looking for some short term  investment scheme...and don't really care about comics.

Edited by Ed Hanes
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THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

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1 minute ago, Ed Hanes said:

The question is ..what percentage of sellers and buyers now are speculators looking for some short term  investment scheme...and don't really care about comics.

That’s the million dollar question.  Take ASM 300 for example.  How many of the 9.8s are being held right now by those that plan to flip them at a certain price point?  Many board members have posted pics of their multiple copies.  How many copies are being held by specs, waiting for the price to hit 10k?  And if the price does hit 10k,  who’s  going to be left to buy them if everyone starts selling?

 

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Ed Hanes

Ed Hanes

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1 hour ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

That’s the million dollar question.  Take ASM 300 for example.  How many of the 9.8s are being held right now by those that plan to flip them at a certain price point?  Many board members have posted pics of their multiple copies.  How many copies are being held by specs, waiting for the price to hit 10k?  And if the price does hit 10k,  who’s  going to be left to buy them if everyone starts selling?

 

I was checking around for the value of ASM 361 the other day. On mycomicshop.com there is a seller (consignment) by the name of ironsides who has 17 CGC slabbed issues of 9.6 for sale..all for 625-690 each. It will be interesting see how this develops

 

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THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

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35 minutes ago, Ed Hanes said:

I was checking around for the value of ASM 361 the other day. On mycomicshop.com there is a seller (consignment) by the name of ironsides who has 17 CGC slabbed issues of 9.6 for sale..all for 625-690 each. It will be interesting see how this develops

 

 

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Randall Ries

Randall Ries

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On 5/1/2021 at 6:59 PM, Ablation Steve said:

Goodness! I stated it as "assuming" and "if it does pop." While I believe it's all but certain, I'm not asking if you think it's a bubble. I'm asking IF IT DOES, what are the most solid books.

Consider it a thought experiment.

Haha. Well, the books that were always popular will remain static. Bat 232, Bat 227 HOS 92, ASM 1, AF 15, Bat 251, FF1, Avengers 4, Transformers 1 in 9.8. LOL!

Some of the new keys will remain. Speculative books will vanish. Appearances and 1sts like the 1st time Wolverine swore or used a Jewish slang will become unimportant. When DC and Marvel paint themselves into a continuity corner AGAIN, they will need to do another universe resetting shtick because that is the only arrow in either quiver. And it will go on and on and on and on and on......

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Ed Hanes

Ed Hanes

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Posted (edited)

 

“They went berserk with foil covers, die cut covers, foil was everywhere”...hmmmm

 

https://comicbooked.com/revisiting-the-90s-speculative-boom-that-nearly-ended-the-comic-book-industry-part-2/

 

I guess the difference is that we don't have hundreds of new titles flooding the market....for now...just keep making those movies

Edited by Ed Hanes
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