Old Guard says Market Bubble vs New Guard says Market Correction. What say you?
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209 posts in this topic

3 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

My cliff note viewpoints are that....

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I completely agree with him. (shrug)   As long as Disney and the Marvel "movie machine" keep pumping out quality TV shows & blockbuster movies this is a market correction.  I look at it this way.....The fact that I bought my Fantastic Four CGC 5.0 for $1200 bucks a couple years makes me feel good, but also very stupid at the same time because I did not empty my bank account and buy 50 more copies.  Last CGC 5.0 just sold for 21k!!!!   Some of these books were IMO way to cheap for way too long.  Do I think inflation and stimulus is playing its ugly role, yes, but overall I think covid lit the match that should have burned years ago.  But Joooooohnnnnnn why are books like Transformers #1 and GIJOE #1 triple now?  Well its pretty simple, my age-range is making real money now that grew up with these characters in the 1980/90's so its just natural for them to be bidding against each other now.  Also don't discount how many comic books are leaving the USA for interntional buyers.  My eBay sales consisted of maybe 5% to Canada and Europe per year, now probably 20%!  Yes, I remember New Mutants #98 being a $50-200 book, but I know older dealers remembering seeing long boxs of DD 1 and FF 48 and considered those books trash, so go figure.  I personally feel its very comical people think this market will crash rather than being happy to see what is happening currently.  I am sure the market will eventually slow down and have a pull-back, but that is obviously not the same as market crash.  I really feel if you are sitting on the sidelines waiting for this bubble to burst you will be waiting for long time because generally speaking these prices are hear to stay!  I could be very wrong about his, but I highly doubt it.  2c

 

You didn't tell us what issue of Fantastic Four is the basis for your comments.

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I actually like this guy compared to a lot of them. I've watched him since he started moving into non-sports.

I'm not so sure I see a crash going back to pre 2020 prices either, but I see some possible big bumps in the road ahead. 

 

 

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Most of these comics have not done squat for years. A book that was $10-15 in 1994-6 that is $40-60 now has only seen a 4-6% rate of return, more than inflation, but well below the stock market. It is about time!

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I find this topic boring. Clearly the folks who keep pushing the idea of a crash want it to happen so they can afford to collect. How about seeing how things turn out rather than pushing for a certain outcome? 

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Thanks for the cliff notes.  How much do you charge for future reference.

Some books were due for a correction.  Some books are in a bubble and will crash/mellow out.  GSX1 at 70k for a 9.8 is a good one for example.

We've also seen hundreds of thousands of trillions of dollars printed across the world.  Throw that into the wind and all of a sudden all assets go up.

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10 minutes ago, Iceman399 said:

Thanks for the cliff notes.  How much do you charge for future reference.

Some books were due for a correction.  Some books are in a bubble and will crash/mellow out.  GSX1 at 70k for a 9.8 is a good one for example.

We've also seen hundreds of thousands of trillions of dollars printed across the world.  Throw that into the wind and all of a sudden all assets go up.

That depends, when people listen to my comic book advice generally good things happen. 

So are you saying GSX #1 will crash or level off?

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22 minutes ago, the blob said:

Most of these comics have not done squat for years. A book that was $10-15 in 1994-6 that is $40-60 now has only seen a 4-6% rate of return, more than inflation, but well below the stock market. It is about time!

I dont think the hobby as a whole is talking about those books.  More so the keys and semi keys.

Not getting your stock market remark.  Generally comics have outperformed the stock market since I graduated from college back in 2003, at least for the average investor.  Stock market has never outperformed any of my CGC invoices. (shrug)

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5 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

That depends, when people listen to my comic book advice generally good things happen. 

So are you saying GSX #1 will crash or level off?

I always listen to you!  Your advice was genius...I just need a way to execute it.

I don't like to use only 1 sale but when you go from $12k to 70k in a few months that isn't a good sign.  When the following sale was then 48k it will be interesting to see how it plays out.  I don't think GSX1 should be > than Hulk 181.  I think we see some pullback...but we won't ever see 2020 prices on it again.

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1 minute ago, Iceman399 said:

I always listen to you!  Your advice was genius...I just need a way to execute it.

I don't like to use only 1 sale but when you go from $12k to 70k in a few months that isn't a good sign.  When the following sale was then 48k it will be interesting to see how it plays out.  I don't think GSX1 should be > than Hulk 181.  I think we see some pullback...but we won't ever see 2020 prices on it again.

Oh lol   I wasn't sure if you being serious or not.

That is how I feel as well, pull-pack eventually, but more a living off.  Well, lets just see how the next Hulk #181 CGC 9.8's do.  I think some more jaw-dropping numbers that will send shockwaves are in the near future.  Hulk #181 is literally just bulletproof! 

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

I dont think the hobby as a whole is talking about those books.  More so the keys and semi keys.

Not getting your stock market remark.  Generally comics have outperformed the stock market since I graduated from college back in 2003, at least for the average investor.  Stock market has never outperformed any of my CGC invoices. (shrug)

With dividend reinvestment? I doubt it. Anyway, over a broad range of books the stock market has way outperformed comics long and medium term. Some select books it may not have. Your blue chip marvel keys. Sure

Edited by the blob
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Maybe "bubble" isn't the right term. Bubble implies that it's going to eventually burst, when it'll probably be a year of deflation before returning to a new baseline.

Right now there are a record number of books (and cards) on submission. Those will be entering the marketplace in about 4-6 months and we'll see if there's enough of a demand to keep up with the increased supply. Right now there's 100+ ASM 300s on eBay. What happens when there's 500? At some point the sellers' market becomes a buyers' market.

My guess is we'll see the card collecting world flatten out first, then the comic collecting world. 

CGC being extra slow to turn around books might actually sustain the market and the boom for quite a while.

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26 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

Oh lol   I wasn't sure if you being serious or not.

That is how I feel as well, pull-pack eventually, but more a living off.  Well, lets just see how the next Hulk #181 CGC 9.8's do.  I think some more jaw-dropping numbers that will send shockwaves are in the near future.  Hulk #181 is literally just bulletproof! 

Yes I'd bet on 181 over GSX each and every day.  That Canadian guy is just so lovable...kinda like me! 

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