Old Guard says Market Bubble vs New Guard says Market Correction. What say you? 1 1

[Transplant]

10 hours ago, Iceman399 said:

That Canadian guy is just so lovable...kinda like me! 

And short. 

[the blob]

9 hours ago, NewWorldOrder said:

I have to disagree.  Normal stock returns with what you are saying is about 10-12% over a decade as I am sure you probably know which is nice.  However, on my end if you gave me $10k to buy raw comics to get graded and $10k to invest into the stock market I will hand you back more profit with comics.  Point being I feel its easier to find comics to get graded than finding the next Amazon as of todays date.  If I only made 10-20% on my money from selling comics I would have had to get a real job again years ago.  

OH, so you're talking about stumbling into raw books that get high CGC grades, yaddah yaddah. this is entirely speculative and requires hunting and an eye for these things. I am talking about sales prices of 9.8s. Not "I could have turned a dollar box book into a $1000 CGC 9.8" And entirely personal (and anecdotal) to what you happened to be buying. 

Yes, i paid 65 cents for my NYX 3. I don't think I could have done better buying Apple stock at its complete bottom of 50 cent a share.

[RonS2112]

10 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

Most of these new buyers don't read or actually care about comic books. They don't even know what they're buying, let alone why. Those of them who argue that the Census counts are so small certainly don't have the slightest  clue about how much more is out there that hasn't yet made it's way to CGC. But I'm supposed to believe they're going to keep paying ever-increasing prices or even maintain current prices?

I agree with your points.  Referencing the highlighted text, I wonder about the demographics of these buyers paying inflated prices.  Are they just people using stimulus money they don't need? (I still find that theory a bit hard to swallow -- anyone who makes little enough to get the stimulus checks probably needs that money for something other than comics).  Or are these people really dumb enough to leverage rent/tuition money into these purchases because they feel they'll for sure get rich?

[bc]

I think we are in a corrubble, with a 40% chance it will turn into a bubrection.

Coming soon to a theatre near you - The Great Comic Market Crash of 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.

-bc

[blazingbob]

Where was the New Guard in March-May of 2020?  

Everybody is a bull when times are good,  books never go down.  When markets go down those Paper tigers turn into poor panda's.

When the market falls apart let me see those New Guard checkbooks opening to buy some of this .  

Edited May 4, 2021 by blazingbob

[the blob]

9 minutes ago, RonS2112 said:

I agree with your points.  Referencing the highlighted text, I wonder about the demographics of these buyers paying inflated prices.  Are they just people using stimulus money they don't need? (I still find that theory a bit hard to swallow -- anyone who makes little enough to get the stimulus checks probably needs that money for something other than comics).  Or are these people really dumb enough to leverage rent/tuition money into these purchases because they feel they'll for sure get rich?

Other than anecdotal "I heard guys in the store", what is the evidence that these enormous increases for many books are due to folks who weren't interested in comics a year ago? i've been reading here about "card guys" going back into comics for 15 years. We see new folks showing up here getting into comics. They spend money on stuff old geezers think is nuts (says the guy who just spend $250 on a Goon 2 9.8...). And new guys sometimes stick. I got back into comics in 1993 after having lost interest since about 1985/1986. I was a new guy then. I think plenty of people here got back into them. Sure, it is true, some of the card guys may have never been into them and there isn't that childhood nostalgia thing going on, but I honestly don't think that is what has kept me in for almost 30 years.

I do try to look at my buyers to gauge whether they are long term or short term collectors, but I'm not selling slabs, mostly, although I am selling hot books. The guy who paid $75 for my raw MCP 72 looks like he has been buying comics on the account since 2018. more recently he has a few sales. My guess he is thinking of getting it pressed and slabbed. And with 9.6 prices where they are, maybe not a bad idea. the guy who paid $50 for my wolverine 88 does look like he was a card guy. the guy who paid $45 for my sam wilson 3 has been a comics guy for a while. the guy who paid hundreds for my FF Annual 6 has been a comics guy for a while. the guy who paid $125 for my SIKTC has been buying comics a while, looks like he is probably getting it slabbed to flip. my triple digit thundercats buyers seem to be nostalgia buys, although both dabble in comics. Anyway, I'm throwing these out there because these were definitely 2021 prices sales. Some random BA Cap book selling for $15-20 because folks got interested in Cap/Falcon due to the show is a bit different.

 

[the blob]

5 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Where was the New Guard in March-May of 2020?  

Everybody is a bull when times are good,  books never go down.  When markets go down those Paper tigers turn into poor panda's.

When the market falls apart let me see those New Guard checkbooks opening to buy some of this .  

We didn't know what we were in for then. We were worried about having enough toilet paper and lysol. Would we have enough wine and vodka? I have a 20 pound bag of rice I still haven't opened, not to mention tons of canned food and dried beans... just in case. I was seriously thinking about how long I could live on one meal a week if it came down to it and we had no food (the numbers indicated about a year, cuz I'm fat...). I was in a supermarket in march and one guy was buying 20 loaves of cheap bread. I guess he was going to freeze them or something.

 

[musicmeta]

I watched and listened to the video and I don't have a crystal ball that will tell me definitively what the comic book market will do.  
So to avoid stressing out about it, I think the market will fall somewhere in the middle of the "old guard" and the "new".  I'm just not going to over analyze it about it too much.
I'll just continue for the most part just buy what I like and can afford and not worry about the next skyrocketing key/non-key book that got away from me.  
There are plenty of nice books out there to buy in my price range - graded or non-graded that I can enjoy and have fun with. 
  

[the blob]

Here's one concern I have:

I think some of these guys might think every decent book can be pressed into a 9.6 or a 9.8

If they started this quest in December or so they might just be getting their books back or haven't yet.

I wonder when they learn the magic of pressing is not that predictable and that X-Men 282 they bought raw is not a $350 slab that their get rich schemes will seem less realistic (although that might be the wrong book to reference because it looks like even 9.0 and 9.2 are selling ok)

 

[the blob]

3 minutes ago, musicmeta said:

I watched and listened to the video and I don't have a crystal ball that will tell me definitively what the comic book market will do.  
So to avoid stressing out about it, I think the market will fall somewhere in the middle of the "old guard" and the "new".  I'm just not going to over analyze it about it too much.
I'll just continue for the most part just buy what I like and can afford and not worry about the next skyrocketing key/non-key book that got away from me.  
There are plenty of nice books out there to buy in my price range - graded or non-graded that I can enjoy and have fun with. 
  

I have not bought this much on ebay in years. I am trying to avoid books that look like they have popped in the last few months (or at least avoiding paying popped prices). There is plenty of stuff out there. Yes, I might have just paid 2021 prices for a book on these boards, but it is a SA key that was a bit undervalued and overlooked before and the character has been underutlized in TV/movies, so I think it is still good long term,

[vheflin]

It's all crypto money, if the crypto pops so goes collectibles.

[blazingbob]

1 minute ago, the blob said:

Here's one concern I have:

I think some of these guys might think every decent book can be pressed into a 9.6 or a 9.8

If they started this quest in December or so they might just be getting their books back or haven't yet.

I wonder when they learn the magic of pressing is not that predictable and that X-Men 282 they bought raw is not a $350 slab that their get rich schemes will seem less realistic (although that might be the wrong book to reference because it looks like even 9.0 and 9.2 are selling ok)

 

When price spreads widen the financial incentive to press increases.  Whether it is the amateur or professional the allure of the profit is just too tempting.  When you have guys just chuckling it up about their dollar bin to $500 book windfalls why wouldn't you want to join in the money grab?

[the blob]

6 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

When price spreads widen the financial incentive to press increases.  Whether it is the amateur or professional the allure of the profit is just too tempting.  When you have guys just chuckling it up about their dollar bin to $500 book windfalls why wouldn't you want to join in the money grab?

of course, frankly, i am tempted to get some of my thor 339s pressed. the book is now arguably worth it in 9.6 and 9.8.

[blazingbob]

3 minutes ago, the blob said:

of course, frankly, i am tempted to get some of my thor 339s pressed. the book is now arguably worth it in 9.6 and 9.8.

Of course,  pop them through the toaster,  press them up,  post them and come back throwing $20's to everyone.  Get those attaboys in the copper forum,  add them to the "What's hot on ebay" and Thor 339's start coming out of the woodwork.

The Dealer Happy meal budget is increased to Chik Fil A across the board.

Save a life today

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by blazingbob

[the blob]

25 minutes ago, vheflin said:

It's all crypto money, if the crypto pops so goes collectibles.

I was wondering the same thing, but i don't think that many folks got rich on crypto. maybe i'm wrong. but when crypto pops I really wonder if that will crash the economy. 

not only have we had governments pumping dollars and euros, etc.... there is about $1 trillion in bitcoin out there. $600 billion or so in other crypto. That is roughly equivalent to the amount of physical U.S. currency in circulation (yes, money supply is much higher). what if bitcoin fell by 50%? the early buyers would still have huge gains, but $800 billion in fake assets disappearing overnight??

Edited May 4, 2021 by the blob

[the blob]

5 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Of course,  pop them through the toaster,  press them up,  post them and come back throwing $20's to everyone.  Get those attaboys in the copper forum,  add them to the "What's hot on ebay" and Thor 339's start coming out of the woodwork.

The Dealer Happy meal budget is increased to Chik Fil A across the board.

Save a life today

 

There is no current shortage of Thor 339s. Despite that, there is still money in them, apparently.

Edited May 4, 2021 by the blob

[MetalPSI]

2 minutes ago, the blob said:

I was wondering the same thing, but i don't think that many folks got rich on crypto. maybe i'm wrong. but when crypto pops I really wonder if that will crash the economy. 

now only have we had governments pumping dollars and euros, etc.... there is about $1 trillion in bitcoin out there. $600 billion or so in other crypto. That is roughly equivalent to the amount of physical U.S. currency in circulation (yes, money supply is much higher). what if bitcoin fell by 50%? the early buyers would still have huge gains, but $800 billion in fake assets disappearing overnight??

I cant pretend to understand bitcoins but calling it fake assets is a slippery slope. Either there is substance there, or it's all a figment of our imagination and belief is all that sustains currency. 

[the blob]

7 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Of course,  pop them through the toaster,  press them up,  post them and come back throwing $20's to everyone.  Get those attaboys in the copper forum,  add them to the "What's hot on ebay" and Thor 339's start coming out of the woodwork.

The Dealer Happy meal budget is increased to Chik Fil A across the board.

Save a life today

 

No Chic Fil A here. Last Friday's sales went to support a local diner.

[the blob]

1 minute ago, Dr. Dank said:

I cant pretend to understand bitcoins but calling it fake assets is a slippery slope. Either there is substance there, or it's all a figment of our imagination and belief is all that sustains currency. 

$1000 in bitcoin in 2010 is worth almost $300 million now. I can call that fake. That is more nonseniscal, by far, than $900 X-Men 244s. This was a currency that came to prominence for illegal purposes. I don't think it will take that much for it to all come crashing down. Not so the dollar or the euro. They might take a tumble, sure.

[MetalPSI]

1 minute ago, the blob said:

$1000 in bitcoin in 2010 is worth almost $300 million now. I can call that fake. That is more nonseniscal, by far, than $900 X-Men 244s. This was a currency that came to prominence for illegal purposes. I don't think it will take that much for it to all come crashing down. Not so the dollar or the euro. They might take a tumble, sure.

I look at a piece of paper and say it's "worth" a number printed on it.

All the same to me. That paper is backed by about as much as crypto is. Just because this guy says what he thinks, doesn't mean it's gospel